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Super Bowl Mock - ochocincos - 01-31-2022
Now that the Bengals are in the Super Bowl, it's guaranteed they'll either pick 31st or 32nd.
Due to all the criticism/debate in my last mock around FAs and the money I listed for each, I decided to take a slightly different approach for this one.
It will still have FAs, but I'm only listing the starters being signed and not listing any $$. Just trust that I've taken cost into account when trying to build this.
NOTE - In this mock, Bates is not tagged, as the cost of the tag will be $13 mill. I decided instead to use that $13 mill to put toward OL. I address FS early in the draft to replace Bates. I also do not re-sign both Ogunjobi and Hill, just one. I use the saved $$ to also put toward OL.
Step 1: Releases
Trae Waynes (frees up $11 mill in cap)
Step 2: Notable Re-signings
CJ Uzomah - Uzomah did well enough given the opportunities. He's also a leader of the team, and they will want to keep him.
BJ Hill - Hill is more well-rounded than Ogunjobi, so I definitely wanna keep him. For those who prefer Ogunjobi over Hill, let me point out some stats:
Hill had only 1.5 less sacks and just a few less QB Hits than Ogunjobi, but Ogunjobi had 50% more pass rushing snaps than Hill. Hill also had 1 more tackle than Ogunjobi despite playing 222 fewer snaps.
EDIT - With the playoff games added, BJ Hill has tied Ogunjobi in sacks but still 70 fewer pass rush snaps. PFF actually has Hill with a higher pass rush grade than Ogunjobi (67.3 vs 61.7).
Eli Apple - Apple has really come along this season. Bengals should be able to cut Waynes, re-sign Apple, and still have some money left over. Apple can be the starter opposite Awuzie.
Step 3: Notable External Free Agents
James Daniels, IOL CHI - A guy I really liked back when Billy Price was drafted, but I didn't think he fit the scheme at the time. Turns out, that's all changed now that the Bengals run outside zone. Daniels hasn't played much C in the NFL yet, but he's been good at both OG spots. He'll cover RG for this coming year, with possibility of moving to C in 2023 based on what happens with Hopkins.
Andrew Norwell, OG JAX - New starting LG. Upgrade as a pass blocker over Spain. Given he grew up in Cincy (Anderson HS) and played at Ohio St, he could want to play with the Bengals for sure. I'd be fine keeping Spain too, if the team wants to keep the continuity. I just think Norwell is a better pass protector (albeit worse run blocker).
Morgan Moses, RT NYJ - Improvement over Reiff. He's a couple years younger (will be 31 vs Reiff's 33) and also (somewhat) better both as a pass blocker and run blocker. Not quite as athletic as Reiff but very big and great length. Showed he can hang in a zone scheme by being successful with the Jets. One other big thing he has over Reiff is being able to stay healthy and consistent.
The starting OL is now set with Williams-Norwell-Hopkins-Daniels-Moses.
Backup DT, 2 depth WRs, backup safety, backup CB, depth edge, and backup QB addressed in FA (internal and external) on cheap deals with remaining cap.
Step 4: NFL Draft
1) Daxton Hill, DB Michigan (6'0", 192 lb) - I'd like to keep Bates, but if I can upgrade the OL with Bates' tag money, I'm doing that and drafting a FS replacement. Hill is the epitome of a center fielder FS. Hill can cover with the best of them. He's so good in coverage that he can even play some CB. Even though he's lighter than 200 lbs (which is Bates' size), he is a good, aggressive tackler and attacks in the run game too.
2) Alontae Taylor, CB Tennessee (6'0", 196 lb) - Good zone coverage outside CB who has speed. Originally came to college as a WR but has transitioned to CB quite well, improving year over year. I think Taylor could come in and start if needed.
3) Ed Ingram, OG LSU (6'3", 317 lb) - Experience at both OG spots and played with Burrow and Chase in 2019. I do think the Bengals probably will want to have Smith, Carman, or Adeniji move back outside, so they decide instead to get a true OG instead of an OT-turned-OG. Ingram comes in to back up the vets and eventually take over as a starter in a couple years.
4) Jake Ferguson, TE Wisconsin (6'4", 244 lb) - Well-rounded TE who can block but is also underrated as a pass catcher. Across 4 seasons in Wisconsin's run-heavy scheme, Ferguson put up 1618 yards and 13 TDs on 145 receptions (11.2 YPR). I see him similar to someone like Dalton Schultz and an improvement in the passing game over Sample.
4comp1) Calvin Austin III, WR/PR Memphis (5'8", 173 lb) - This dude is small, but he's electric. Memphis used him all kinds of ways, and he delivered. He especially thrives with YAC. Austin is also a good PR, which the Bengals need. I see Austin as the 5th WR activated on gamedays, serving as the team's PR and coming into the offense occasionally for gadget plays and in the slot.
4comp2) Bailey Zappe, QB WKU (6'1", 220 lb) - If the Bengals get a second comp pick like is rumored (John Ross), let's take a chance on a backup QB. I went for a somewhat local guy to me in Bailey Zappe. He had a monster year this year at WKU, putting up 69.3% completion for 5967 yards, 62 TDs, 11 INTs. He seems like a good leader and has a lot of good traits. The "negatives" are he played in Conference USA, shorter than preferred, and doesn't have elite arm strength (but sufficient). He's not a dual-threat QB, but he does have some ability to scramble to extend the play, always looking to pass. He has some qualities that remind me of Burrow - highly accurate, good touch, and clear leader of the team.
5) Ty Chandler, RB/KR UNC (5'11", 203 lb) - Productive RB in both the SEC (Tennessee) and ACC (UNC). Played more in a RBBC with the Vols, but he got lead back duties at UNC. He had a handful of receptions each season (10-19 each season). He looks to have solid speed, which would help add some explosion to the Bengals offense. It also helps that he has plenty of KR experience - 38 KRs for 850 yards (22.4 YPR) and 1 TD.
6) D'Marco Jackson, LB App St (6'0", 235 lb) - A LB who could be a two-down thumper and ST ace, replacing Evans. Jackson isn't great in coverage, so he'd get subbed out on passing downs if playing defensive snaps. He does have the speed to chase down ball carriers though and should be good on ST. Won Sun Belt DPOY. Also played with ADG for two seasons, so they have that connection already.
7) Nick Ford, OL Utah (6'5", 315 lb) - Extremely versatile OL who has played every single position in college. Ford was voted All-Pac-12 twice. I've seen multiple draft sites say his best position in the NFL will probably be center. He's projected so low because he's been moved around so much in college that he hasn't had the time to develop at one position. I think he's a perfect candidate to take a gamble on late and see if he can turn into something if put at one position. Ford would make the perfect PS candidate if not making the last OL spot on the 53-person roster.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - Interceptor - 01-31-2022
YEEEEEAAAAHHHHH 4comp2)!!!
RE: Super Bowl Mock - Speedy Thomas - 01-31-2022
Great work, Ocho. You put a lot of time and effort into this. I would hate to see Bates go.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - ochocincos - 02-01-2022
(01-31-2022, 11:47 PM)Speedy Thomas Wrote: Great work, Ocho. You put a lot of time and effort into this. I would hate to see Bates go.
Thanks.
I don't want him to go either, but I do think he'll have the biggest cap hit of anyone the Bengals would probably sign this offseason, and I think the Bengals will probably have more success finding a good safety to come in right away vs an OL. Bengals have not had good luck with drafted OL their rookie year.
Also, we need to come to the realization that the Bengals will not be able to re-sign all of Spain, Bates, Ogunjobi, Hill, and Uzomah while also being able to upgrade CB, RT, and RG in FA.
At least one of those positions will have to be with a draft pick instead of a proven quality vet.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - Bengalfan11164 - 02-01-2022
With roughly $66mm (after Waynes release) in salary cap space, there should be enough to either FT or extend Bates.
The Bengals need to retain their best defensive players while adding additional defensive playmakers (probably in the draft). FT for Bates would be about $14mm for Bates.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cap/
Love the FA oline additions to the team. Probably about $25mm, maybe a tick more.
$25mm Oline + $14mm Bates FT = $39mm with still about $27mm left to sign add'l players (e.g Uzomah, Apple, BJ Hill).
Moses is playing on a 1 year $4.3mm deal. Estimated Market Value of $7.7mm.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-jets/morgan-moses-14476/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-jets/morgan-moses-14476/market-value/
Andrew Norwell - Restructured his deal for a $9mm hits with $3m in incentives ($1m playoff, $1m pro bowl, $1m top 10 team rank). He should be able to be "got" for $10mm.
https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2021/03/15/jags-andrew-norwell-restructure-before-tampering-period/
James Daniels is exiting rookie deal and made $3mm in the most recent year. He will be more expensive - Spotrac is now estimating his market value as $7.3.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/james-daniels-25138/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/james-daniels-25138/market-value/
RE: Super Bowl Mock - Bengalfan11164 - 02-01-2022
in 2021, the Bengals FINALLY drafted a slew (3) of olineman in the 2021 draft; Jackson Carman (2nd, OT/OG), D'Ante Smith (4th, IOL), Trey Hill (6th, IOL).
Depending on Carman's future designation (either IOL or OT), it would only make sense to draft further depth at Carman's opposing position.
Regardless, if the Bengals would also draft OL (in addition to signing 3 OL in FA), then they should draft a OT (a la Anthony Collins 4th rounder 2008). Probably in 4th round or later as a RT2 with Carman being swing tackle off bench.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/offensive-line/
The Bengals currently spend about $20mm per year on oline. If Jonah would be extended ($18 - $20) and Bengals sign all these UFA olinemen ($25mm), then would go to top 3 most in NFL ($63 - $65).
Bottom line, I think Bengals are capped at 2 UFAs on oline with a possible additional pick in the draft (potentially targeting a replacement for Hopkins $7.125mm salary in 2022).
LT: Jonah/Carman
LG: Norwell/Adeniji
C: Hopkins/Trey Hill
RG: Daniels/D'Ante Smith
RT: Moses/Johnson or Prince
RE: Super Bowl Mock - Bengalpool - 02-01-2022
Love upgrading the o-line. Can't help but be so sad for Bates leaving though. Ugh... Maybe he takes a team friendly deal.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - Bengalpool - 02-01-2022
(02-01-2022, 01:37 PM)Bengalfan11164 Wrote: in 2021, the Bengals FINALLY drafted a slew (3) of olineman in the 2021 draft; Jackson Carman (2nd, OT/OG), D'Ante Smith (4th, IOL), Trey Hill (6th, IOL).I'm not sure how I feel about Hopkins as our future starting Center.
Depending on Carman's future designation (either IOL or OT), it would only make sense to draft further depth at Carman's opposing position.
Regardless, if the Bengals would also draft OL (in addition to signing 3 OL in FA), then they should draft a OT (a la Anthony Collins 4th rounder 2008). Probably in 4th round or later as a RT2 with Carman being swing tackle off bench.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/offensive-line/
The Bengals currently spend about $20mm per year on oline. If Jonah would be extended ($18 - $20) and Bengals sign all these UFA olinemen ($25mm), then would go to top 3 most in NFL ($63 - $65).
Bottom line, I think Bengals are capped at 2 UFAs on oline with a possible additional pick in the draft (potentially targeting a replacement for Hopkins $7.125mm salary in 2022).
LT: Jonah/Carman
LG: Norwell/Adeniji
C: Hopkins/Trey Hill
RG: Daniels/D'Ante Smith
RT: Moses/Johnson or Prince
RE: Super Bowl Mock - Bengalfan11164 - 02-01-2022
(02-01-2022, 01:38 PM)Takedown Wrote: I'm not sure how I feel about Hopkins as our future starting Center.
Wholly agree.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - TecmoBengals - 02-01-2022
As always, a fun read. Since we're one hell of a team, I've taken interest in whether or not we draft a QB to develop a backup. Zappe does jump out as a potential target, but I'm also interested in looking at other options.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - ochocincos - 02-01-2022
(02-01-2022, 01:02 PM)Bengalfan11164 Wrote: With roughly $66mm (after Waynes release) in salary cap space, there should be enough to either FT or extend Bates.
The Bengals need to retain their best defensive players while adding additional defensive playmakers (probably in the draft). FT for Bates would be about $14mm for Bates.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cap/
Love the FA oline additions to the team. Probably about $25mm, maybe a tick more.
$25mm Oline + $14mm Bates FT = $39mm with still about $27mm left to sign add'l players (e.g Uzomah, Apple, BJ Hill).
Moses is playing on a 1 year $4.3mm deal. Estimated Market Value of $7.7mm.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-jets/morgan-moses-14476/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-jets/morgan-moses-14476/market-value/
Andrew Norwell - Restructured his deal for a $9mm hits with $3m in incentives ($1m playoff, $1m pro bowl, $1m top 10 team rank). He should be able to be "got" for $10mm.
https://jaguarswire.usatoday.com/2021/03/15/jags-andrew-norwell-restructure-before-tampering-period/
James Daniels is exiting rookie deal and made $3mm in the most recent year. He will be more expensive - Spotrac is now estimating his market value as $7.3.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/james-daniels-25138/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/james-daniels-25138/market-value/
Yes, Moses, Daniels, and Norwell are estimated ~$25 mill.
Bates tag is $13 mill.
You're already at $38 mill just in 4 players.
You'll also need to reserve ~$10 mill for draft and injury reserve.
So you're down to already almost $50 mill occupied.
Bengals only have 36 players under contract for 2022, only 34 if Reiff leaves and Waynes is released. That's 17 players at minimum you need to sign with the cap space available.
You have to worry about starting TE, two DTs (one starter), backup safety, two WRs, backup CB(s), potential depth at edge (more pass rush than Kareem and Sample please), and possibly backup QB as well.
You filling all that with ~$15-20 mill with players the fans will feel confident in?
RE: Super Bowl Mock - ochocincos - 02-01-2022
(02-01-2022, 01:38 PM)Takedown Wrote: I'm not sure how I feel about Hopkins as our future starting Center.
Hopkins has been absolutely fine as a pass blocker ever since the bye week.
If you're concerned about him long-term, move Daniels there after 2022 when Hopkins is set to hit FA. Maybe by then Carman or some other OL will be ready to properly fill in at RG.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - schroomytunes - 02-01-2022
I actually see us doing something like this with the O-line:
LT- Jonah Williams
LG- Quentin Spain- re-signed
C- Trey Hopkins
RG-Jackson Carmen
RT- Morgan Moses-FA signing
backups:
Adeniji-T/G
Hill-C/G
Prince-T
Smith-G/T
Draft:
1) Either a C or a RT in first 3 Rounds.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - ochocincos - 02-01-2022
(02-01-2022, 02:07 PM)schroomytunes Wrote: I actually see us doing something like this with the O-line:
LT- Jonah Williams
LG- Quentin Spain- re-signed
C- Trey Hopkins
RG-Jackson Carmen
RT- Morgan Moses-FA signing
backups:
Adeniji-T/G
Hill-C/G
Prince-T
Smith-G/T
Draft:
1) Either a C or a RT in first 3 Rounds.
That's definitely realistic, but many fans will 100% say that isn't enough to upgrade the OL.
There's no C I want early in the draft unless somehow Linderbaum falls to 31/32.
RT there are some, but you also need to worry about DB and DL.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - TecmoBengals - 02-01-2022
(01-31-2022, 08:34 PM)ochocincos Wrote: 4comp2) Bailey Zappe, QB WKU (6'1", 220 lb) - If the Bengals get a second comp pick like is rumored (John Ross), let's take a chance on a backup QB. I went for a somewhat local guy to me in Bailey Zappe. He had a monster year this year at WKU, putting up 69.3% completion for 5967 yards, 62 TDs, 11 INTs. He seems like a good leader and has a lot of good traits. The "negatives" are he played in Conference USA, shorter than preferred, and doesn't have elite arm strength (but sufficient). He's not a dual-threat QB, but he does have some ability to scramble to extend the play, always looking to pass. He has some qualities that remind me of Burrow - highly accurate, good touch, and clear leader of the team.
What about a guy like Malik Cunningham from Louisville? He can run the ball and I'm thinking maybe there is value in a backup QB that can come in for the occasional trick play, misdirection, Wildcat, etc. Or is it more ideal to get a Burrow-light type?
RE: Super Bowl Mock - ochocincos - 02-01-2022
(02-01-2022, 02:34 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: What about a guy like Malik Cunningham from Louisville? He can run the ball and I'm thinking maybe there is value in a backup QB that can come in for the occasional trick play, misdirection, Wildcat, etc. Or is it more ideal to get a Burrow-light type?
I don't personally like players that are not similar to the starter.
It can allow some trick plays, but if the starter goes down, the whole offense would have to change.
Not sure I'd have confidence the Bengals could adjust that much.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 02-01-2022
I like it. But, if I were the GM I’d need to know a lot more about Ingram’s off field issues before I’d draft him. If it was weed I wouldn’t care.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - ochocincos - 02-01-2022
(02-01-2022, 06:52 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: I like it. But, if I were the GM I’d need to know a lot more about Ingram’s off field issues before I’d draft him. If it was weed I wouldn’t care.
From what has been reported, the 2018 sexual assault charges got dropped in Sept 2019.
https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_94ae8948-d0f2-11e9-99a7-4fd306d9e307.html
He was on the championship team in 2019, playing most of that season.
I would think Burrow and Chase can speak to his character.
RE: Super Bowl Mock - Bengalfan11164 - 02-01-2022
(02-01-2022, 01:59 PM)ochocincos Wrote: You'll also need to reserve ~$10 mill for draft and injury reserve.
Don't believe Geoff's propaganda.
https://overthecap.com/draft/
The effective amount of cap space the Bengals need for their 2022 picks is $2,684,645
I am also not worried about the "only 35 on roster" thing either.
35 have existing contracts on roster
7 - 8 will get new contracts - Bates, BJ Hill, Spain, Apple, Uzomah, Tre Flowers, Auden Tate, Reiff, Brandon Allen
8 draft picks
16 practice squad players
- 66 players - Not counting UDFAs
2021 - 31st overall pick - Odafe Oweh (Baltimore) - $2,062,253 against salary cap
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/jayson-oweh-72411/#:~:text=Current%20Contract,average%20annual%20salary%20of%20%242%2C835%2C598.
2021 - 63rd overall pick - Creed Humphrey (KC) - $1,011,856 against salary cap
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/creed-humphrey-72443/
2021 - 95th overall pick - Ben Cleveland (Baltimore) - $808,96
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/ben-cleveland-72475/
2021 - 136th overall - Marco Wilson (Cardinals) - 822,595
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals/marco-wilson-72520/
RE: Super Bowl Mock - ochocincos - 02-02-2022
(02-01-2022, 09:07 PM)Bengalfan11164 Wrote: Don't believe Geoff's propaganda.
https://overthecap.com/draft/
The effective amount of cap space the Bengals need for their 2022 picks is $2,684,645
I am also not worried about the "only 35 on roster" thing either.
35 have existing contracts on roster
7 - 8 will get new contracts - Bates, BJ Hill, Spain, Apple, Uzomah, Tre Flowers, Auden Tate, Reiff, Brandon Allen
8 draft picks
16 practice squad players
- 66 players - Not counting UDFAs
2021 - 31st overall pick - Odafe Oweh (Baltimore) - $2,062,253 against salary cap
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/jayson-oweh-72411/#:~:text=Current%20Contract,average%20annual%20salary%20of%20%242%2C835%2C598.
2021 - 63rd overall pick - Creed Humphrey (KC) - $1,011,856 against salary cap
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/creed-humphrey-72443/
2021 - 95th overall pick - Ben Cleveland (Baltimore) - $808,96
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/ben-cleveland-72475/
2021 - 136th overall - Marco Wilson (Cardinals) - 822,595
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals/marco-wilson-72520/
It's not Geoff's propaganda.
Spotrac estimates the 31st pick alone will be $2.3 mill.
You need to add potentially all the picks making the roster, which could be $6-7 mill in total.
Then you have to have IR reserve, which most teams (Bengals especially) reserve between $2-5 mill.
Therefore, it's safe to assume that the Bengals will hold on to ~$10 mill going into the draft.
But let's play the game:
Moses+Daniels+Norwell = $25 mill
Bates = $13 mill
That brings the count up to 38 players on the roster and ~$25 mill in cap to spend
Fill the following 13 spots with that much cap: starting-caliber DT, starting-caliber TE, 4 CBs (at least one being someone you'd feel comfortable to start), backup safety, all backup WRs, backup DT, backup QB, depth LB
You can use the draft and remaining FA
It MIGHT be possible that it can be done, but it'd be extremely tight. Why make it super difficult to find people that squeeze into the cap when you can make it so much easier by just allowing one player to walk and draft a replacement?
(I did see you mentioned Tate and Reiff getting new contracts...I don't want Tate back, and Reiff can't stay healthy. No thanks)