(12-11-2023, 11:29 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I think our best bet is that BALT has something to play for in week 17.

(12-12-2023, 12:58 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: I think we barely miss out at 9-8. I hope I'm wrong, but it's tough to see this team beating the Chiefs or Browns.

(12-12-2023, 02:40 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I dunno ?

If they stick with the under center, running the ball, using play action fakes I feel we have a better chance vs. the all shotgun let the Browns D feast offense.

And our D must play well

(12-12-2023, 02:48 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: It's a divisional game and very well could be a win-and-in game so all bets are off, but given how we've looked vs the Browns over the last 4-5 years I don't think anyone should really feel confident about it.

(12-11-2023, 11:22 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Did a little simulating and these are some things i came up with. I only predicted relevant games to the AFC playoffs. D = defeat.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Week 14: Dolphins win
Week 15: Beng D Vikes, Colts D Steel, Lions D Broncs, Dolph D Jets, Tex D Tit, Browns D Bears, Chiefs D Pats, Cows D Bills, Jags D Ravens
Week 16: Beng D Steel, Bills D Charg, Tex D Browns, Colts D Falc, Jags D Bucs, Cows D Dolph, Broncs D Pats, Chiefs D Raid, 49ers D Ravens
Week 17: Browns D Jets, Rav D Dolph, Bills D Pats, Colts D Raid, Jags D Panth, Tex D Tit, Hawks D Steel, Beng D Chiefs, Bronc D Charg
Week 18: Rav D Steel, Beng D Browns, Colts D Tex, Chiefs D Charg, Raid D Bronc, Dolph D Bills, Jags D Tit, 

That makes the playoffs look like this.




If i go back to week 17 and change the Bengals v Chiefs to a loss, it knocks the Bengals out of the playoffs. 


If i also change the week 16 Colts v Falcons to a loss for the Colts, it looks like this. 



And if i change the Bengals v Chiefs back to a Bengals win and change the week 18 Broncos v Raiders to a Denver win, it goes back to the Miami #1 seed scenario above. 

There are so many scenarios, that i stopped changing outcomes to see what it would take for the 'Bengals to make it if' because there were so many changes by simply altering one game from above, in any given week. It's gonna be an insane ending to the season...

(12-12-2023, 03:49 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: And just think, Miami lost.. every week there are upsets, that is the key play at a steady level every game.. realistic is best we do is 3-1  or 2-2....still could get it 3-1 but 2-2 with tiebreakers we are dead in the water

(12-12-2023, 03:49 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: …... realistic is best we do is 3-1 or 2-2....still could get it 3-1 but 2-2 with tiebreakers we are dead in the water

(12-12-2023, 04:21 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Go 4-0 and no one can keep them out. 

(12-12-2023, 12:13 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: They should. A lot of the scenarios look like the Bengals need the Broncos to lose 2 more for the Bengals to lose to KC and still get in. 

The Bengals do control their own destiny. As long as they win out, there's no scenario where any other WC teams can knock them out if they all win, since there are instances where a couple hopefuls play each other and no matter the outcome, the Bengals are still in it.

(12-12-2023, 06:24 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I am not sure if that is accurate that we are in if we win out .  So lets say Ravens , Bills (4-0) Jags (2-2) and Chiefs (3-1) win division
Denver (4-0), Bengals (4-0), Indy (3-1) , Miami (2-2), Cleveland (3-1) all finish 11-7, I could see Bengals not making the playoffs, since we would be 6-6 in conference, Cleveland and Indy would be 8-4, Denver and Miami would be 7-5, that would be the main tiebreaker to decide a 5 team tie, correct ?

(12-12-2023, 09:46 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I ran your scenario with Jags, Ravens, Bills and Chiefs winning their divisions. Denver 4-0, Bengals 4-0, Indy 3-1, Miami 2-2, Browns 3-1 and the Texans 2-2 (you forgot them).

It turned out like this.



If i change the Texans to 3-1 by virtue of a win against the Browns, which makes the Browns 2-2, it looks like this.



If the Texans go 4-0 it takes wins away from the Browns and Colts and the Bengals still get the 7th seed, with the Texans being the 5th seed.

(12-12-2023, 11:50 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I ran mine using Pro Football Network it came out with how i predicted  with using a simulator based on the playoff criteria

Division Champs 1 Ravens 12-5  2 KC 11-6 3 Jags 11-6  4 Bills 11-6

5 Browns 11-6  6 Colts 11-6   7 Dolphins 11-6,

Bengals and Broncos out at 11-6.

Here is where the Bengals get hurt, not sure if division placement matters but they are 3rd in their division, all other WC are 2nd in their division. The big criteria that gets them is conference record, since head to head is going to be thrown out since no team has defeated all the other 4 teams at 11-6, then then it goes  to conference record, the best Bengals can do is 6-6,every team including Denver will have 7 or more conference wins so Bengals would finish 9th.

Now honest opinion , no way do i see that many teams at 11-6 but we been saying midway through season if Bengals tie with multiple teams for WC most likely with their bad division record they will lose out and even if they go 4-0 that plays out.  My belief if they go 11-6 they will be in, I don;t see Bills and Denver winning 11 so we would get in.