(05-20-2022, 11:58 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Someone ? Leonard Leap or Fred maybe ? Did a thread several years ago on the success rate of draft picks by round. Success being average or above starters that had some length of career. And if memory serves the drop off after the 3rd round is pretty severe. Oh there's always exceptions (Geno Atkins) but those are fairly few and far between.

(05-20-2022, 10:06 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Titans had a big problem with their O-line when Spain started as a rookie.

Trey Smith was 3 time All-SEC player who just dropped because of medical issues.  Volson is nothing close to that.

I assume that Edwards started due to injury since he was active but did not start until week 7.

And 3 times in the last decade is not "common".

(05-20-2022, 12:44 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Why does it matter how they started? Isn't the point that a 4th rounder can start and be productive enough to keep the gig or is the point to make sure you're right?

(05-20-2022, 12:44 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I did not do a 32 team sweep of the last 10 years. I imagine if I did I'd find a few more such as Jason Kelce, Bryan Stork, Corey Linsley, Mark Glowinski, Wyatt Teller, John Simpson, and others, But I have a feeling they "won't count" for some reason. 

(05-20-2022, 10:56 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Since 2010, only 22% of guards selected in the 4th round or later have started more than three games in their rookie season. Out of this 22%, the average PFF grade is 56.6. If we raise our criteria of being a starter to starting eight games or more, only 6% of guards selected from the 4th round or later qualify. The average PFF grade is 56.78.

It's pretty rare, and not very good when it does happen.

(05-20-2022, 01:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The point we were discussing was a 4th round pick beating out veterans like Carman to win the starting job.



Oh, no.  They will all count.

But someone has already done the work for you.

(05-20-2022, 11:49 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I feel like if the Bengals were really losing patience with Carman's work ethic already, they'd have brought in a veteran (at least a stopgap) to not have to rely on him or a Day 3 rookie to start.
Just my opinion though.

(05-20-2022, 11:54 AM)fredtoast Wrote: What does this even mean?

He played with a back injury that required surgery. Is that being "babied".

(05-20-2022, 12:03 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Ben Baldwin studied this as well. I think his criteria is based on contract amount as it relates to the market. He did it for all positions. Based on this criteria, you have roughly a 30% shot of getting an average G in the 4th round. It continues dropping after that, of course. 

(05-20-2022, 01:51 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: That means EXACTLY what I said. He was babied at Clemson.

(05-20-2022, 01:34 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Oh I thought the point we were discussing was  "if a 4th round pick starts as a rookie then we have a big problem on our o-line.". So I provided examples of 4th rounders or later starting on numerous olines in their rookie seasons. 

(05-19-2022, 10:15 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The point is he held his own, and never gave the job back up.

(05-20-2022, 02:09 PM)fredtoast Wrote: And you had no clue that the Titans had a problem with their O-line when Spain started a rookie.

(05-20-2022, 02:17 PM)bfine32 Wrote: As I asked earlier>>>Why does that matter? He started as a rookie and held on to the job. 

(05-20-2022, 02:17 PM)bfine32 Wrote: As I asked earlier>>>Why does that matter? He started as a rookie and held on to the job. 

Speaking of Spain....Don't you have some sort of Sig bet concerning him?

(05-20-2022, 02:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think Fred's saying even if Volson does end up starting as a rookie, don't expect him to do very well.
Michael Jordan (also Pick 136 like Volson) started 9 games as a rookie and was horrendous.
Volson isn't necessarily going to follow the same path as Jordan, but Jordan is like most 4th round OL - They likely won't start as a rookie, and if they do, they are usually below average.
So all Fred is saying is don't count on Volson comin out guns-a-blazin.

(05-20-2022, 02:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Sorry, but could you give me an example.

The term "babied" is way too vague for me to have any clue what you are talking about.

(05-20-2022, 02:40 PM)bfine32 Wrote: And I'm saying we don't know. there's numerous examples of late RD rookies contributing to olines.

Was KC in trouble last year when Trey Smith started. Was LA in trouble when David Edwards started...

Hell Green Bay had a 4th RD rookie starting at OG

I think these RECENT examples show a good team can "not have a big problem with their oline". If a 4th rd or later interior olineman is starting.

Hell Jackson Carman was a high 2nd rd pick, started 7 games as a rookie and was terrible.

(05-20-2022, 02:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: We don't know, you're right. But the probability is low.
Fred's saying it's too early to start getting too hyped on Cordell Volson.
Odds aren't in his favor to come in and do well right away.
Instead, maybe we should wait and see before being too optimistic.

(05-20-2022, 02:51 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Can’t that was the word used to me. Didn’t ask for further elaboration. I’d assume he wasn’t pushed hard. Came in soft. Wasn’t tough. Wasn’t a hard worker. Dunno