(07-16-2020, 02:01 PM)Whatever Wrote: The other big reason RB's don't typically get huge 2nd contracts is that they usually hit the wall a couple of years into their second contract.
 

(07-16-2020, 02:40 PM)3wt Wrote: The answer to this is that I do not believe Mixon will sign.

I think the floor for his expectations is - or was $10 million a year.   I don't think he'll settle for less than this in the wake of the Henry deal.

(07-16-2020, 03:04 PM)Au165 Wrote:  let him walk into a flooded HB market next off season and test the waters.

(07-16-2020, 03:11 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is a good point.

I don't know who all will be a free agent next year, but the commentators were all saying that was a big reason Henry wanted to get a deal this year.

(07-16-2020, 03:14 PM)Au165 Wrote: Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Phillip Lindsay, Marlon Mack, Kenyon Drake, Todd Gurley...and one of the better HB draft classes we have seen in a while.

(07-16-2020, 12:40 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: To each their own, but in my mind this is easily explainable.  It's not that you "don't pay" them, it's that you don't overpay them.  Running backs are probably the easiest position to replace.  They also have the shortest life-span career wise, making long-term investments all the more risky.  When you combine those two things it drives their price way down.

(07-16-2020, 03:26 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: [cut out most of your post just to shorten things up]

Some of this debate gets lost as "don't pay RBs" gets conflated with "don't overpay RB". When I hear the don't pay RB argument all I hear is "let Joe walk next year and draft his replacement in the 5th round". That's what I'm arguing against. To give the debate any semantic interoperability, it has to be in terms of at what threshold one considers it to be overpaying. After all we're really talking about what the value is, because by definition you shouldn't "overpay" anybody (in the sense of paying beyond their value). 

It does seem to me that if Derrick Henry is worth 12.5 million per (and i'm not saying he is, i'm saying that's the market), then Mixon should be worth 11-12, because they're close. If we get him for 10 or less i'll be ecstatic... but there are folks in this thread saying 10 is too much. 

(07-16-2020, 03:36 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I think Henry and Mixon are close talent wise but the TD's are not even close, this is why I think 11 or 12 might be too much
for the amount of production Mixon has provided. The one thing that makes me think he would be worth it is Burrow coming
in and the O-line improving in blocking. Mixon could really blow up the league if used correctly as I don't think he has been 
used correctly in the passing game so far in his career.

(07-16-2020, 03:38 PM)Au165 Wrote: Forget TD's, Derek Henry rushed for nearly 1300 yards of his 1540 yards last year after contact. Henry has averaged almost 5 yards a touch the last two years and frankly doesn't take a lot of negative rushes even when hit in the backfield. Mixon offers more in the passing game for sure, but Mixon has not shown the talent as a runner that Henry has. To me, Mixon is closer to Melvin Gordon than he is Derek Henry.

(07-16-2020, 03:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: It would take a lot of complicate research to answer this question, but I tend to disagree.

My research is not as exact as it needs to be, but I think it is close enough to give us a good idea.  And it looks like most good RBs play well through their second contract.

I would roughly estimate that the first contract cover years 21-24.  If they get another 4 year deal then that would be for years 25-28.

Over the last decade (2010-2019) there have been 127 one thousand yard rushing seasons.  51 of them have been by RBs age 21-24.  60 of them have been by RBs age 25-28.  

28 seems to be the big "drop off year".  There have been as many 1000 yd seasons by RBs age 28 (15) as RBs age 25 or 26.  But there were only 8 by RBs age 29, and only 8 more by RBs aged 30 or older (and Frank Gore has 3 of them).

A 4 year deal (3 year extension) for Mixon has him under contract through age 27.  I feel it is pretty safe to assume a good RB will last that long.

(07-16-2020, 04:45 PM)Whatever Wrote: Currently,the "wall"for RB's is age 26. 

(07-16-2020, 11:27 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: 4 years, 40-45, 20 mil guaranteed.

That's what I'd do for Mixon.

(07-16-2020, 05:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Four years is a pretty small sample size.  I don't think the league has changed that much that quickly.

(07-16-2020, 11:09 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Derrick Henry signed a 4 year 50 million dollar deal with 25.5 million guaranteed with the Titans yesterday.

Would you give this deal to Mixon if he were to accept?

Locking up Mixon's year 24, 25, 26 and 27 age seasons (assuming it's an extension and doesn't override his current 2020 contract) for 12.5 million per year isn't a fantastic deal, but it's decent value. But going over 10 million per year for a running back is still very steep considering the positional value.

I personally would be more worried about the years than the dollars. I'd prefer a 3 year extension and then a re-evaluation period in which we could choose to either keep him or let him leave.

Since we didn't extend Green, I think getting a deal with Mixon done should be the final remaining priority of the off season, so if this is what it takes I am open to it.

What are your guys' thoughts?

(07-16-2020, 11:15 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: No way I give Mixon that much.  Henry is coming off a 1,540 yard, 16 TD season where he averaged 5.1 a pop.  He's also coming off a season where he was the focal point of a team that went to the AFC Championship.

I'm sorry, but the production just isn't there for Mixon to sniff the very top level of pay at the position.  I do believe he's been hindered a bit by playing on bad teams, whereas someone like Elliot benifits greatly from his surroundings.  Still, until Mixon produces elite numbers he can't be paid elite money.

Mixon, IMHO, is worth aound 9 mil per.  8 mil per would be his bottom, 10 mil his ceiling.  Any less and it's a steal, any more and you overpaid.

(07-17-2020, 09:14 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: The Henry deal is too much for Mixon. Anything over 9 per is too expensive. Skill positions can't carry a roster.