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+--- Thread: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? (/thread-27211.html)
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - EatonFan - 04-01-2021
(04-01-2021, 08:22 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The point is judging a rookie QB on a terrible team solely on wins/losses is really dumb.
I'm not. He had a decent year, but I'm not seeing it as OMG we have a HOF QB on our hands.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - EatonFan - 04-01-2021
(04-01-2021, 08:50 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: andys rookie year we argueably had a worse team in place... as we were predicted to win all of ZERO games... This time we just had horrible coaches
If I'm objective, Dalton had a better rookie year than Burrow. I don't think the supporting cast was all that different from a talent perspective. I'd give the edge to Dalton's cast, but not head and shoulders above.
That's just a perception.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - EatonFan - 04-01-2021
(04-01-2021, 09:59 PM)EatonFan Wrote: If I'm objective, Dalton had a better rookie year than Burrow. I don't think the supporting cast was all that different from a talent perspective. I'd give the edge to Dalton's cast, but not head and shoulders above.
That's just a perception.
I will say Dalton had the better OL, but he didn't hold the ball as long as Burrow either.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - Nicomo Cosca - 04-01-2021
(04-01-2021, 09:59 PM)EatonFan Wrote: If I'm objective, Dalton had a better rookie year than Burrow. I don't think the supporting cast was all that different from a talent perspective. I'd give the edge to Dalton's cast, but not head and shoulders above.
That's just a perception.
By what possible metric?
Burrow: (10 games)
2688 yds 13 TD 5 INT 1.2 INT% 65.3 CMP% 89.8 Passer Rating
Dalton:
3398 yards 20 TD 13 INT 2.5 INT% 58.1 CMP% 80.4 Passer Rating
The big factor where Dalton had an advantage was coaching though. Marvin Lewis/Jay Gruden/Mike Zimmer>>>>>>>>>>>>Zac Taylor/Brian Callahan/Lou Anarumo.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - Essex Johnson - 04-01-2021
(04-01-2021, 09:18 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Both lines were way better in 11.
OLine was still average in 11 and Dalton had a solid rookie year outside off yards with way more attempts Burrow and Dalton rookie years were not too much difference accept Dalton had more wins and a unexpected playoff appearance.. with all the moves Bengals have made in past 2 years, pressure is on Burrow to notch some wins.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - grampahol - 04-03-2021
Jeeeez.. My prediction for all young men.. DUMB THINGS with excuses. It kind of goes with being, well, young. Beyond that my other prediction is if they live long enough they won't be as young anymore.
Any objections? Your vote doesn't count. I win! To prove my point..In the immortal words of my old man, "Wait'll you get to be my age."
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - rfaulk34 - 04-03-2021
(04-01-2021, 09:18 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Both lines were way better in 11.
+ top 10 defense in both scoring and yards.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - fredtoast - 04-03-2021
(04-01-2021, 10:13 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: By what possible metric?
Burrow: (10 games)
2688 yds 13 TD 5 INT 1.2 INT% 65.3 CMP% 89.8 Passer Rating
Dalton:
3398 yards 20 TD 13 INT 2.5 INT% 58.1 CMP% 80.4 Passer Rating
The big factor where Dalton had an advantage was coaching though. Marvin Lewis/Jay Gruden/Mike Zimmer>>>>>>>>>>>>Zac Taylor/Brian Callahan/Lou Anarumo.
Dalton's numbers compared to the league average are pretty close to Burrows.
'11 league..... 60.1%... 84.3 PR... 1-1.47 td/int
Dalton........... 58.1%... 80.4 PR... 1-1.54 td/int
'20 league...... 65.2%... 93.6 PR... 1-2.21 td/int
Burrow.......... 65.3%.... 89.8 PR... 1-2.60 td/int
Neither had much of a running game to support them
'11... 19th yds,... 27th ypc
'20... 24th yds.... 27th ypc
Here is the big difference.
Dalton sacked once per 21.4 attempts.
Burrow sacked once per 12.6 attempts.
Dalton had a better O-line, but his pass protection was not as much better as the sack numbers seem to indicate. Dalton was just a lot more conservative. He would check down or throw the ball away quicker than Burrow.
Burrow is actually more elusive in the pocket than Dalton was, but Joe still ends up holding onto the ball too long trying to make more big plays.
I will be defending Dalton for years, but I don't mean to be bashing Joe. Burrow has a higher ceiling than Dalton. That is why he was the first player taken in the draft. But Andy was shockingly effective his rookie season for a team that was projected to be possibly the worst in the league.
And Joe Burrow still has some things to work on. I have faith that he will continue to improve, but he has not performed like a super star yet. He was only putting up big volume numbers because he was leading the league in attempts.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - fredtoast - 04-03-2021
(04-03-2021, 01:10 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: + top 10 defense in both scoring and yards.
This is exactly why I did not even address "wins" when comparing the rookies seasons of Burrow and Dalton.
Dalton had a MUCH better defense to help him to win games. Yet right now I see a lot of people around here saying "Ignore the defense and just try to outscore opponents."
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - Synric - 04-03-2021
(04-03-2021, 01:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is exactly why I did not even address "wins" when comparing the rookies seasons of Burrow and Dalton.
Dalton had a MUCH better defense to help him to win games. Yet right now I see a lot of people around here saying "Ignore the defense and just try to outscore opponents."
Dalton also had a more consistent run game that helped him with down and distance and open the playbook up for Playaction. Burrow was the offense until he was hurt with alot of 5 wide empty sets.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - rfaulk34 - 04-03-2021
(04-03-2021, 01:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is exactly why I did not even address "wins" when comparing the rookies seasons of Burrow and Dalton.
Dalton had a MUCH better defense to help him to win games. Yet right now I see a lot of people around here saying "Ignore the defense and just try to outscore opponents."
They've at least attempted to shore up the defense the last 2 years, i just don't know--well, i kind of know--that Lou has near the ability to get the most out of his players via motivation and play calling, that Zimmer did.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - rfaulk34 - 04-03-2021
(04-03-2021, 01:35 PM)Synric Wrote: Dalton also had a more consistent run game that helped him with down and distance and open the playbook up for Playaction. Burrow was the offense until he was hurt with alot of 5 wide empty sets.
Ironically, that's Burrows favorite. He just needs someone to be like CEH to help it run better.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - fredtoast - 04-03-2021
(04-03-2021, 01:35 PM)Synric Wrote: Dalton also had a more consistent run game that helped him with down and distance and open the playbook up for Playaction. Burrow was the offense until he was hurt with alot of 5 wide empty sets.
Both '11 and '20 teams ranked 27th in yards per carry. So Dalton's run game was not mere effective, the coaches just stuck to it more, 2011 Bengals ranked 10th in the league in rush attempts while '20 ranked 17th.
Anyone else surprised we ranked that high in rush attempts?
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - TheLeonardLeap - 04-03-2021
(04-03-2021, 01:33 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is exactly why I did not even address "wins" when comparing the rookies seasons of Burrow and Dalton.
Dalton had a MUCH better defense to help him to win games. Yet right now I see a lot of people around here saying "Ignore the defense and just try to outscore opponents."
I said ignore the defense and just try to protect Burrow in 2021. It wasn't about outscoring opponents so much as letting the franchise QB play a full season healthy and getting the team ready to take the step towards success in 2022 with different (and better) coaching. I don't think the Bengals were going to be a playoff team in 2021 regardless of what they did. I don't have faith in either Taylor or Anarumo being able to put together a winning team, and any Taylor offense is going to be top-20 all time in pass attempts as long as the starting QB is around, it seems, so just prepare for that.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - Shake n Blake - 04-03-2021
(03-31-2021, 10:21 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Peyton Manning didn't become consistently great until his 6th NFL season. (138 TD/100 INT, 7.3 YPA, 85.9 QB Rating his first 5 seasons.) He was okay, but not great.
Lets hope Burrow doesn't take that long.
Eh, I don't know about that, LL.
Peyton's first 6 years looked like this:
3739 yards - 26 TDs - 28 INTs - 71.2 rating
4135 yards - 26 TDs - 15 INTs - 90.7 rating
4413 yards - 33 TDs - 15 INTs - 94.7 rating
4131 yards - 26 TDs - 23 INTs - 84.1 rating
4200 yards - 27 TDs - 19 INTs - 88.8 rating
4267 yards - 29 TDs - 10 INTs - 99.0 rating
His ranks...
Passer rating
23rd
4th
6th
8th
5th
2nd
Yards
3rd
3rd
1st
2nd
3rd
1st
TDs
5th
3rd
1st
5th
2nd
2nd
INTs
1st
9th
9th
2nd
3rd
26th
--------------
He threw a lot of picks back then, but he was most def an elite top 3 QB from year 2 onward.
That's why he used to get roasted so hard for the one-n-dones.
(04-01-2021, 03:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The number of games will not make as big of a difference as the way the NFL manipulates the game through officiating.
Last year there were massive drops in holding calls against the offense and a massive increase in the number of pass interference calls against the defense. Look at these numbers... 3842 yds... .652 Comp %...... 27 tds..... 93.6 passer rating. Those used to be the numbers of the top 10 QBs in the league, but last year that was the team average across the entire league.
If this continues even an average QB will have career numbers better than some of the best QBs in the league over the last decade.
Burrow's rookie year made me realize how crazy things got last year. It felt like I was watching an elite QB in action...then I saw he ranked 24th in passer rating.
The NFL has swung wayyy too far in the direction of helping offense. That said, I do think Burrow will be an elite guy.
(04-01-2021, 10:13 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: By what possible metric?
Burrow: (10 games)
2688 yds 13 TD 5 INT 1.2 INT% 65.3 CMP% 89.8 Passer Rating
Dalton:
3398 yards 20 TD 13 INT 2.5 INT% 58.1 CMP% 80.4 Passer Rating
The big factor where Dalton had an advantage was coaching though. Marvin Lewis/Jay Gruden/Mike Zimmer>>>>>>>>>>>>Zac Taylor/Brian Callahan/Lou Anarumo.
Dalton ranked 20th in passer rating with 9 wins as a rookie.
Burrow ranked 24th in passer rating with 2 wins as a rookie.
No, I'm not saying Dalton was a better prospect or player. That definitely goes to Burrow.
But to say Dalton wasn't better "by any metric" is false, and I do believe the years of Dalton debates make people unappreciative of just how good Dalton was starting out, and that he had many stretches of play that no doubt helped us during that 5 year run of playoff cameos.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - TheLeonardLeap - 04-03-2021
(04-03-2021, 03:44 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Eh, I don't know about that, LL.
Peyton's first 6 years looked like this:
3739 yards - 26 TDs - 28 INTs - 71.2 rating
4135 yards - 26 TDs - 15 INTs - 90.7 rating
4413 yards - 33 TDs - 15 INTs - 94.7 rating
4131 yards - 26 TDs - 23 INTs - 84.1 rating
4200 yards - 27 TDs - 19 INTs - 88.8 rating
4267 yards - 29 TDs - 10 INTs - 99.0 rating
His ranks...
Passer rating
23rd
4th
6th
8th
5th
2nd
Yards
3rd
3rd
1st
2nd
3rd
1st
TDs
5th
3rd
1st
5th
2nd
2nd
INTs
1st
9th
9th
2nd
3rd
26th
--------------
He threw a lot of picks back then, but he was most def an elite top 3 QB from year 2 onward.
That's why he used to get roasted so hard for the one-n-dones.
He was also a .500 starter his first 4 years, and I just can't get over the fact he averaged 20 INT/yr his first 5 years.
He also had a stacked offense early in his career. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, Ken Dilger, Marcus Pollard... it would be hard to NOT put up accumulation numbers with those guys in your offense.
Was he good? Sure, but was he Peyton Manning good? Not really, until Year 6 onwards.
Year 1-5: 62.1% completion, 7.3 YPA, 1.4 TD/1 INT, 85.9 QB Rating
Year 6-10: 66.4% completion, 8.1 YPA, 3.2 TD/1 INT, 104.4 QB Rating
If you look at PFR, they actually do have a QB Rating+ stat now for QBs, so anything below 100 is that % below average and anything above 100 is that % above average.
Manning
Yr1: 93
Yr2: 115
Yr3: 123
Yr4: 107
Yr5: 115
He was above average yr2-4, but really only yr3 was great. Then...
Yr6: 124
Yr7: 151 (led NFL)
Yr8: 129 (led NFL)
Yr9: 126 (led NFL)
Yr10: 122
In fact, if you look at the Adjusted Passing part of his page..
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm
...You will see that the only black ink (led the league that year) he has the first 5 years is attempts his rookie year. Then starting at the 6th year you start seeing a whole lot of black ink pop up.
(EDIT: Also worth noting that Yr6 was also 2003, the year he won his first playoff game and broke his 0-fer streak.)
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - Nate (formerly eliminate08) - 04-03-2021
I doubt this 17 game season actually goes on after this season. There might be a lot of injuries and it is hard enough on
players playing an entire 16 game season. I bet a lot of teams that have already made the Playoffs also rest their starters
in that final game or the final few games just to be healthy for the Playoffs which just makes it more like Preseason games.
It was a stupid, greedy idea in the first place. Bet it backfires big time.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - Shake n Blake - 04-03-2021
(04-03-2021, 04:42 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He was also a .500 starter his first 4 years, and I just can't get over the fact he averaged 20 INT/yr his first 5 years.
He also had a stacked offense early in his career. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, Ken Dilger, Marcus Pollard... it would be hard to NOT put up accumulation numbers with those guys in your offense.
Was he good? Sure, but was he Peyton Manning good? Not really, until Year 6 onwards.
Year 1-5: 62.1% completion, 7.3 YPA, 1.4 TD/1 INT, 85.9 QB Rating
Year 6-10: 66.4% completion, 8.1 YPA, 3.2 TD/1 INT, 104.4 QB Rating
If you look at PFR, they actually do have a QB Rating+ stat now for QBs, so anything below 100 is that % below average and anything above 100 is that % above average.
Manning
Yr1: 93
Yr2: 115
Yr3: 123
Yr4: 107
Yr5: 115
He was above average yr2-4, but really only yr3 was great. Then...
Yr6: 124
Yr7: 151 (led NFL)
Yr8: 129 (led NFL)
Yr9: 126 (led NFL)
Yr10: 122
In fact, if you look at the Adjusted Passing part of his page..
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm
...You will see that the only black ink (led the league that year) he has the first 5 years is attempts his rookie year. Then starting at the 6th year you start seeing a whole lot of black ink pop up.
(EDIT: Also worth noting that Yr6 was also 2003, the year he won his first playoff game and broke his 0-fer streak.)
If we're being honest, he had 28 picks his rookie season. Other than that, it wasn't a huge issue over the following 5 year span. The game was different back then. QB's generally threw more picks. When Peyton threw 15 picks in 1999, he only ranked 9th in the league. Now 15 picks would probably lead the league.
When he threw 23 picks, he was one of 6 QB's to do throw 20+...one of them being Kurt Warner in one of his greatest seasons. Peyton still ranked 8th in passer rating the year he threw 23. His production was just that great.
Peyton posted these average ranks from years 2-6:
Rating: 5.0
Yards: 2.0
TD's: 2.6
INT's: 9.8
I can't look at that and say he wasn't elite. I don't care who his teammates were. The production was off the charts, and people VIEWED him as elite at the time. Peyton also had a 51-29 record over those 5 years with 2 division titles.
He was viewed as elite at everything except winning in the playoffs. That was the only real concern with him at the time.
If you made this about Peyton's rookie season, I'd get it. He showed promise, but threw a staggering amount of picks, and the team went 3-13. That said, after that he was def viewed as an elite top 3-4 QB. Just had questions about choking come playoff time. Yes, Peyton did get even better as his career went on, but he was def elite in years 2-6 as well.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - fredtoast - 04-04-2021
(04-03-2021, 06:15 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I doubt this 17 game season actually goes on after this season. There might be a lot of injuries and it is hard enough on
players playing an entire 16 game season. I bet a lot of teams that have already made the Playoffs also rest their starters
in that final game or the final few games just to be healthy for the Playoffs which just makes it more like Preseason games.
It was a stupid, greedy idea in the first place. Bet it backfires big time.
Nothing like that is going to happen. I am old enough to remember when the NFL went from 14 games to 16. It was not that big of a deal then and it won't be now.
RE: Burrow and 17 game seasons for 18 years? - XenoMorph - 04-05-2021
(04-01-2021, 10:13 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: By what possible metric?
9 wins and a trip to the playoffs vs 2 wins and a trip to IR
I dont care about passing yards etc... Its Wins that matter.
ZT's offense is much more about throwing the ball than anything else. cause its all he knows.