(08-17-2021, 09:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 2nd round deal, his "meager" deal was $5m, and he actually got worse in year 2 compared to year 1.

2018: 489 yards/1 TD/77.7 QB Rating allowed... 8.3% missed tackle rate
2019: 509 yards/4 TDs/100.1 QB Rating allowed... 14.5% missed tackle rate


- - - - - -
Strike one, strike two, strike three. You're out?  

(08-17-2021, 03:45 PM)Au165 Wrote: He is actually not a very good "coverage safety" and in reality is probably more linebacker/utility player. I still think the Simmons contract is a perfect blueprint for his contract because their skillsets are more aligned, but if you told me I had to give him the Adams deal to keep him I would probably do it.

(08-17-2021, 09:31 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Nice try on the selective stat grabbing, fred jr.  Despite the numbers you posted, Pro Football Reference still has him at a higher AV in 2019 than 2018.



https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BateJe00.htm

(08-17-2021, 10:06 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Well if your SINGULAR stat of AV that you Fred the 3rd'd says so, then we can happily ignore hard stats like TDs allowed, QB Rating allowed, and missed tackles. 

How is AV even calculated?

(08-17-2021, 10:15 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I've wondered that myself, but I'm convinced that it takes a lot more into consideration that just the categories that you mentioned.

(08-17-2021, 10:29 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html

Great read. It's more a metric of the player's value to the team, based on performance, games/snaps played, etc.

Love the stat; I know it isn't an end-all be-all (which is why I NEVER use it in our discussions), but it is a good number to use for general season performance.

(08-17-2021, 08:47 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: If we don't, some other team will.  

(08-17-2021, 09:11 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Except that's how you get into bad contracts. You need it to also be based off of what he has done. That's why Hubbard was signed as a 2nd tier contract. You don't throw Top 1-3 contracts at guys based off of promise. 

Jamal Adams is only 1.5 years older than Bates but has a much much much stouter resume.

Your blind rallying call of "pay the man" is how the Bengals got stuck into a shitty deal with Mixon. There's no harm in letting Bates prove himself in 2021 if he wants to be paid as a top safety.


Except they're literally incapable of doing so as long as the Bengals give him the exclusive franchise tag in 2022. Heck, even if they give him the non-exclusive tag in 2022 that would still require an NFL team to not only pay Bates $17-18m/yr, it would also require them to give the Bengals 2 1st round picks.

The Denver S who had just signed the prior big contract this offseason was negotiating while being tagged for the 2nd straight year. It didn't stop them from getting a longterm deal done.

What's Bates option? Retire? He doesn't get paid. Sandbag? Nobody is going to pay a sandbagger, doubly so since Bates doesn't have an extensive history of excellence prior to it. His best option is to keep playing at a high level because he'll keep getting paid at a high level either by the Bengals once he's proven he's worth a top tier contract, or by another team once he hits FA in 2024. Le'Veon Bell showed that hold outs simply don't work. You'll probably never make that money back and the year off will probably ruin you on the field.

(08-17-2021, 11:51 PM)J24 Wrote: Look at the upcoming free agent class in 2022
Marcus May, Tyran Mathieu, Marcus Williams, and Harrison Smith. Also Fitzpatrick will be looking for a new deal.

(08-17-2021, 11:51 PM)J24 Wrote: Bates was regarded as   the best safety in Football last season, he had a  Terrific Rookie season, and the guy has played 99% of the defenses snaps the last three seasons,and has not missed one game in his whole career. To say he hasn't earned a new contract is ridiculously absurd.

Also the numbers for safeties are only going to go up so signing him today would be a much cheaper move than tagging him twice.

Look at the upcoming free agent class in 2022
Marcus May, Tyran Mathieu, Marcus Williams, and Harrison Smith. Also Fitzpatrick will be looking for a new deal.

(08-18-2021, 02:05 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: By PFF.

He wasn't regarded the best safety by the All-Pro teams, and he wasn't regarded the best safety by NFL players (top-100).

A couple people were praising AV earlier in the thread. He didn't lead safeties in AV, and there's been a lot of safeties who have had better seasons according to that in the last 2 years than Bates did in 2020.

He's absolutely earned a new contract. Never said he didn't. I said he hasn't earned a top contract. If he wants a $10-12m/yr deal (still top-10 money), by all means, give it to him. I just think if he wants to be paid like an top-3 safety at $15-17m/yr, he's not there yet.

Don't let the fact that he wears a Bengals jersey cloud your objective judgement.

Tagging him twice will be much cheaper regardless of the FA class if he wants Jamal Adams money. It was $10.6m for Safeties in 2021. Add 20% for the second year and that's $12.7m in 2023.

So no, extending him now at his demands of elite S money is not going to be cheaper than ~$23.3m over the next two years. It would have to jump $7-11m to make that true, and it won't.

(08-18-2021, 02:05 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: By PFF.

He wasn't regarded the best safety by the All-Pro teams, and he wasn't regarded the best safety by NFL players (top-100).

A couple people were praising AV earlier in the thread. He didn't lead safeties in AV, and there's been a lot of safeties who have had better seasons according to that in the last 2 years than Bates did in 2020.

He's absolutely earned a new contract. Never said he didn't. I said he hasn't earned a top contract. If he wants a $10-12m/yr deal (still top-10 money), by all means, give it to him. I just think if he wants to be paid like an top-3 safety at $15-17m/yr, he's not there yet.

Don't let the fact that he wears a Bengals jersey cloud your objective judgement.

Tagging him twice will be much cheaper regardless of the FA class if he wants Jamal Adams money. It was $10.6m for Safeties in 2021. Add 20% for the second year and that's $12.7m in 2023.

So no, extending him now at his demands of elite S money is not going to be cheaper than ~$23.3m over the next two years. It would have to jump $7-11m to make that true, and it won't.

(08-18-2021, 08:10 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Exactly. I've never seen so many people so eager to overpay a player. Bates deserves a new contract, but he is not a 17 million dollar a year player yet.

(08-18-2021, 10:06 AM)psychdoctor Wrote: Isn't Adams more of a linebacker hybrid in the box safety that terrorizes the QB? I cannot see this organization paying 17+ mil per for a safety.

(08-18-2021, 08:24 AM)Synric Wrote: You can't compare Jessie Bates and Jamal Adams because they don't play the same position.

(08-17-2021, 03:20 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Copy text, paste, find and replace "Jamal Adams" to "Jessie Bates", send to Bates for signature and approval.

(08-17-2021, 11:51 PM)J24 Wrote: Bates was regarded as   the best safety in Football last season

(08-18-2021, 02:05 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: By PFF.