(12-14-2022, 12:46 PM)wcu Wrote: This article says we need to win 2 of the remaining 4 to guarantee a playoff spot, but there are also scenarios where we could lose out and still get the 6 or 7 seed.  We hold tie breakers over the Jets, Dolphins, and Titans and hopefully soon the Patriots and Bills.  

https://www.cleveland.com/bengals/2022/12/how-did-sundays-win-over-the-browns-affect-the-bengals-playoff-chances.html

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/bengalswhatif.html

This site is pretty cool.  It lays out a bunch of scenarios with associated statistics.  It says if we win out, we have a 53% chance of being the 2 seed and 47% chance of being the 1.  If we lose out, it gives us a 62% chance of making the playoffs.

This is a very cool tool from the NY Times that lets you see how our playoff chances and seeding changes depending on the individual games we win/lose: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/upshot/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-playoff-picture.html#tb-cin-15=loss&ne-cin-16=loss&cin-buf-17=win&cin-bal-18=win

Doing a very cursory simulation, it looks like:

1. We win out and the Chiefs win out, we're the 2 seed.
2. We win out and the Chiefs lose one, we're the 1 seed.
3. We lose to the Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 3 seed.
4. We lose to the Ravens, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
5. We lose to the Ravens and Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
6. We lose to the Ravens, Bills, and one other, we're the 7 seed.
7. We lose out and miss the playoffs.