(04-22-2024, 12:48 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm so hoping we get another back in the draft. Evans and Williams just don't move the needle much as a 3rd back. And IMHO lacking a solid ground game has been one of our key missing ingredients for Joe. And it makes all the difference in the world in the red zone.

And I agree, I believe this year is critical for the Bengals. Joe Burrow has to stay healthy.

(04-22-2024, 01:24 PM)CJD Wrote: It's pattern seeking correlation brought on almost entirely by superstition.

(04-22-2024, 01:13 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Rivers then had more than 5 years with his next HC, having 6 years with Norv Turner and still didn't win a SB. 14-2 or not, Marty Schottenheimer was never going to win a SB. Guy coached for 21 years and won 5 playoff games. When the Chargers fired him he hadn't won a single playoff game in the previous 13 years.

5 years is a REALLY long time in the NFL. You can't use the word impatience when talking about waiting 5 years in the NFL. That's the majority of a great player's productive years (AJ Green was basically done after 7 years, Chad after 9 years, Corey Dillon after 8 years) and 1/3rd of a franchise QB's career (probably more when you figure they normally aren't great their rookie year and have 1-2 twilight years at the end).

(04-22-2024, 10:15 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Let's hope that the team does for Joe what the Broncos did for John Elway. Build a fundamentally sound rushing attack and solid defense, that way the pressure to win every game is more equally divided throughout the team, rather than a disproportionate amount falling on the QBs shoulders.

(04-22-2024, 01:24 PM)CJD Wrote: Stats like this are fascinating because humans, by nature, try to look for patterns in life. So it makes sense that people could see that stat and decide that it has some sort of causal link to whether or not the Bengals will ever get the Super Bowl again.

But it's completely nonsensical. There's nothing about losing a Super Bowl by 3 points that could possibly cause that player to never reach the Super Bowl ever again. It's pattern seeking correlation brought on almost entirely by superstition.

Burrow may or may not ever play in a Super Bowl again.

But it will have nothing to do with the fact that he lost the first Super Bowl he appeared in.

(04-22-2024, 01:57 PM)depthchart Wrote: No one can definitively know what Schottenheimer may have been able to do with a few more years with Rivers. (They lost more chances together)

Impatience may not be the right word but I do expect the Bengals to have more patience with Zac & his Staff thus giving him beyond 5 years 

worth of chances to win it all with Burrow.

*We may need to find Coaches that had a QB in Burrow's Class that got 6 or more years together to see exactly how many of these type of Chances

  actually occurred.  

 Zac may get more bites at the apple than most Coaches would get Historically (if Ownership remains patient)

(04-22-2024, 07:27 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: This year will decide a lot about what the Bengals should do for their future due to two stats...

1. The last 18 QBs to lose their first SB have never started another SB (and only 4 in NFL history have).
2. No QB/HC duo in NFL history have ever won their first SB together later than their 5th year together.

I think Burrow is a good enough QB that so long as he can stay healthy he can overturn #1. Elway was the last to do it, so it has been done despite the odds being against him.

The fact that no QB/HC duo have ever done the second one in NFL history though makes me think that if you don't have it click and get it done early, it's never going to happen no matter how many years you have together. Without the trophy and ring, the messaging can only work for so long.

So I think 2024 is going to be a big year because playoffs and a win or two isn't going to be enough to maintain the status quo for 2025. It's SB or bust this year. We'd be trying to push two massive boulders up a mountain if we don't win a ring and try to keep things as they are.

(04-22-2024, 10:38 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Right on. Burrow needs to become Elway 2.0 preferably without anymore Super Bowl losses.

Please, please, and please Football Gods do not allow Burrow to become Marino 2.0.

(04-22-2024, 03:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Just like that guy who died building a homemade rocket to try to get to space was never going to reach space no matter how many more tries he got and if Marvin Lewis was still our HC throughout the Joe Burrow era we would never have reached the SB (heck, just look at the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the Lewis/Palmer era or the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the Lewis/Dalton era) we can comfortably say Marty Schottenheimer was never going to win a SB. Ever. 

A 6th year of hitting a rock with an egg will not change the fact that the egg is going to break before the rock. There's a reason that despite getting fired after a 14-2 season he never was a coach in the NFL ever again.

Coaches that got a Burrow Class QB for >6 years and didn't win a SB...
Dan Marino. He and Don Shula were together for 13 years.
Philip Rivers. He and Norv Turner were together for 6 years.
Jim Kelly. He and Marv Levy were together for 10 years.
John Elway. He and Dan Reeves were together for 10 years.
Matt Ryan. He and Mike Smith were together for 7 years.
Boomer Esiason. He and Sam Wyche were together for 8 years.
Fran Tarkenton. He and Bud Grant were together for 12 years.
Dan Fouts. He and Don Coryell were together for 7 years.

There's more, but I just don't feel like looking up more. Lol

Alternatively to a Joe Burrow class QB, Andy Reid is a future HoF coach and he and Donovan McNabb were paired together for 11 years, no SB. Then Andy Reid and Alex Smith were together for 5 years, no SB, they made a change despite Alex Smith having led the NFL in QB Rating the previous year and having a 116.2 rating in their playoff loss and put in Patrick Mahomes and got 3 rings. 

If you're sure one of the two of your combination is THE guy, then you eventually need to make a change with the other because clearly something isn't working and just hanging around trying to make it work when it hasn't is not a solution. It has never been a solution in all of NFL history and is how you just get another Dan Marino.

(04-22-2024, 03:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:
Just like that guy who died building a homemade rocket to try to get to space was never going to reach space no matter how many more tries he got and if Marvin Lewis was still our HC throughout the Joe Burrow era we would never have reached the SB (heck, just look at the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the Lewis/Palmer era or the 6th, 7th, and 8th years of the Lewis/Dalton era) we can comfortably say Marty Schottenheimer was never going to win a SB. Ever. 

A 6th year of hitting a rock with an egg will not change the fact that the egg is going to break before the rock. There's a reason that despite getting fired after a 14-2 season he never was a coach in the NFL ever again.

Coaches that got a Burrow Class QB for >6 years and didn't win a SB...
Dan Marino. He and Don Shula were together for 13 years.
Philip Rivers. He and Norv Turner were together for 6 years.
Jim Kelly. He and Marv Levy were together for 10 years.
John Elway. He and Dan Reeves were together for 10 years.
Matt Ryan. He and Mike Smith were together for 7 years.
Boomer Esiason. He and Sam Wyche were together for 8 years.
Fran Tarkenton. He and Bud Grant were together for 12 years.
Dan Fouts. He and Don Coryell were together for 7 years.

There's more, but I just don't feel like looking up more. Lol

Alternatively to a Joe Burrow class QB, Andy Reid is a future HoF coach and he and Donovan McNabb were paired together for 11 years, no SB. Then Andy Reid and Alex Smith were together for 5 years, no SB, they made a change despite Alex Smith having led the NFL in QB Rating the previous year and having a 116.2 rating in their playoff loss and put in Patrick Mahomes and got 3 rings. 

If you're sure one of the two of your combination is THE guy, then you eventually need to make a change with the other because clearly something isn't working and just hanging around trying to make it work when it hasn't is not a solution. It has never been a solution in all of NFL history and is how you just get another Dan Marino.

(04-22-2024, 05:42 PM)Ctfan73 Wrote: I’m getting 6 who lost their first and played in another, 3 got a win:

Len Dawson - lost 1, won 4
Craig Morton - lost 5,12
Bob Griese - lost 6, won 7
Fran Tarkenton- lost 8,9,11
John Elway -  lost 21,22,24, won 32,33
Jim Kelly - lost 25-28

If the Bengals fall short this year they’ll just have to be the first combo to win after year 5 as there’s no way they’re firing Taylor.

(04-22-2024, 04:33 PM)depthchart Wrote: Schottenheimer was brought up to show potential Ownership impatience. Fired after a 14 & 2 season.

You gave a lot of good examples and being definitive in your thoughts about Schottenheimer & NFL History you are left with a hard decision

after the 2024 season if the Bengals do not Win it all in 2024.  Year 6 will start in 2025.

Do you FIRE Zac or get rid of Burrow ?    What will you recommend seeing that you are boxed in by your conclusions ? 

Which person do you send away in 2025 before year 6 begins ?

(04-22-2024, 02:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: That's not happening with Zack Moss.
Let's be real.

About the only RBs you can argue carry their teams nowadays are:
- Christian McCaffrey
- Nick Chubb
- Maybe Derrick Henry (although it will be interesting to see him in BAL)

(04-22-2024, 08:09 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Actually, I look for Chase Brown to get the majority share of RB snaps, like maybe a 60-40 split with Moss. And, you never know if the team might already have RB on their sights for this draft. A reliable rushing attack doesn't mean that they need to run 50% of the time, just be effective and reliable when they do run the ball. Part of that starts with showing that you're willing to line up and imposing your will by running the ball, there will be some games along the way that command that they do.

(04-22-2024, 06:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bringing him up didn't have the intended effect, then. He never coached again in the NFL after that year. That's 31 other owners who agreed they didn't want him as their HC, and 31 other HCs who didn't want him on their staff. 

He had Drew Brees AND Philip Rivers along with HoF weapons like Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson and couldn't even win 1 playoff game in 5 years. That's two different HoF QBs and top-8 all-time TE and RB. So yeah, my thought about Schottenheimer and his chance to win a SB if he got a couple more years in SD are pretty definitive.

- - - - - -

I'd like to think that Burrow if he can stay healthy is a top-3 QB in the NFL right now (Mahomes, Rodgers with the same if healthy caveat, Burrow). Also one of them has a $105.25m dead cap in 2025 and the other doesn't. Not boxed in at all, it's not really even a question. If you make a shakeup, it's the guy who is both HC and defacto OC.

(04-22-2024, 08:22 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Braelon Allen Sunset, Braelon Allen. 

(04-22-2024, 08:23 PM)depthchart Wrote: Never claimed that Schottenheimer would have won a Super Bowl if given more chances but was showing how there are likely many Coaches 

throughout History that may have lost chances to Coach beyond 5 years with the same QB due to Ownership impatience. 

I would think that the odds of Schottenheimer winning a Super Bowl with Rivers would have been small but he did show a 14 & 2 aptitude

and I am seeing that he currently ranks 9th All Time in Career wins. 


It looks like the Bengals have around a 7% chance of winning the next Super Bowl per Vegas odds.

Based on your beliefs; 

Shouldn't you encourage the Bengals to begin a preliminary (behind the scenes) Head Coaching search now for the 2025 season ?

After all, the Bengals may get to a Super Bowl & lose leaving very little time to get a New Head Coach in before the 2025 Draft & Season.

Why would you say "If" regarding a shakeup ?   Wouldn't you Demand a shakeup since year 6 & beyond is cursed ?

If the 2024 Season ends without a Super Bowl win then I expect to see some Threads from you demanding Zac be Fired & enlightening 

the Bengals as to your reasons why he has to be Fired heading into year 6 with Burrow.

(04-22-2024, 08:23 PM)depthchart Wrote: and I am seeing that he currently ranks 9th All Time in Career wins. 


Shouldn't you encourage the Bengals to begin a preliminary (behind the scenes) Head Coaching search now for the 2025 season ?