(08-05-2024, 10:19 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:

Reds have 40 hits, 7 doubles, 14 home runs, and 29 runs scored against the Marlins in 4 games this year.

(08-06-2024, 12:07 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I can’t wait to see how good Elly will be in his mid twenties. What this kid is doing at only 22 is nuts.

(08-06-2024, 06:36 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Tucker Barnhart is back with the Reds.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/08/reds-sign-tucker-barnhart-to-minor-league-deal.html

(08-05-2024, 07:15 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: yup

I realize between Marte getting suspended, McClain going down, Friedl not being able to stay on the field, then CES stinking (when he was in) put a big damper on the season. But I didn't think we would stink this bad on offense. 

EDLC has done ok in one sense, but 143 K's ummm. Candelairo has been way to up and down and just not worth it. India has been up and down and just mediocre overall. Fraley has been decent on average but his power is gone. Benson needs sent down. 

At this point I'm jst not sure who's worth keeping and who they shold move on from??

It's been disheartening for me! I never would have guessed Steer would flop this bad.

(08-07-2024, 11:50 AM)ochocincos Wrote: If I'm gonna pick up a bat, it's gonna be at one of the positions that usually has a strong bat - 1B, LF, DH.

1B is probably the position easiest to find a bat for and the Reds also have no one with any true proof of hitting ability there.
CES did well last year in 63 games played, but he was not doing well this year before getting HBP and out since April 27.

LF I think Steer is solid, but I also liked him at corner IF.

Looking at the roster next year, here is who I see as the starting lineup:
OF - Steer, Friedl, Fraley
1B - CES
2B - McLain
SS - EDLC
3B - Candelario
C - Stephenson
DH - Hinds/Marte

Hinds may not get promoted back at the beginning of the season and Marte has looked terrible since back from PED suspension.
There's definitely room to add 1 bat to help cover at DH, and then another for 1B/LF insurance would also help if CES doesn't get back to his 2023 form.
A DH/1B flex guy might be the best option if only adding 1 person. And it could be an older dude.

(08-07-2024, 11:50 AM)ochocincos Wrote: If I'm gonna pick up a bat, it's gonna be at one of the positions that usually has a strong bat - 1B, LF, DH.

1B is probably the position easiest to find a bat for and the Reds also have no one with any true proof of hitting ability there.
CES did well last year in 63 games played, but he was not doing well this year before getting HBP and out since April 27.

LF I think Steer is solid, but I also liked him at corner IF.

Looking at the roster next year, here is who I see as the starting lineup:
OF - Steer, Friedl, Fraley
1B - CES
2B - McLain
SS - EDLC
3B - Candelario
C - Stephenson
DH - Hinds/Marte

Hinds may not get promoted back at the beginning of the season and Marte has looked terrible since back from PED suspension.
There's definitely room to add 1 bat to help cover at DH, and then another for 1B/LF insurance would also help if CES doesn't get back to his 2023 form.
A DH/1B flex guy might be the best option if only adding 1 person. And it could be an older dude.

(08-07-2024, 01:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: EDLC can't be the SS in 2025, he's going to have 30 errors this season. He needs to kick over to 3B. They desperately need to find a way to offload Candelario this offseason to make that space. McLain to SS and unless you have a significant upgrade, keep India at 2B.

Fraley they have firmly stuck into a platoon role, so he's not a starter on his own, he only has 260 PA so far this year compared to Steer and EDLC's 460-480 right now so only ~55%, so need someone to match with him. Maybe that's Hinds?

Friedl is such a weird one. I think he ultimately might be a 4th OF type for us in 2025 because he just keeps getting hurt, he's not hitting now, and he'll be in his age 29 season next year so there's not really anymore upwards for him. It's probably the start of the decline. I guess he could also be the vs LHP OF paired with Fraley as that's been his career split leaning.

Using the DH to let Marte be an offensive black hole just can't be allowed to happen. Doesn't have the same "juice" as last year.

- - - - - -

So I think we have potential full-time upgrade spots at... 
CF and DH.
Or 3B and DH if EDLC moves to CF instead of 3B.
Or 1B and DH if EDLC moves to CF instead of 3B and CES moves to 3B instead of 1B.

If we're talking a proper good signing and just going ahead and assuming we're not going to get Juan Soto (or realistically probably not anyone good, but going that far probably defeats the purpose/fun of discussion) some good/interesting options include...
Pete Alonso: 1B or DH
JD Martinez: DH
Tyler O'Neill: LF, moving Steer to DH
Teoscar Hernandez: RF, which lets you put Fraley at DH and then platoon him with Tyler Stephenson when he's not catching
Joc Pederson: DH

Assuming we're just talking FAs and not any trades I think you could go....
OF - Steer, EDLC, Teoscar Hernandez (Friedl and Hinds as 4th and 5th OF)

1B - Pete Alonso
2B - India
SS - McLain
3B - CES
C - Stephenson/Backup Catcher
DH - Fraley vs RHP/Stephenson vs LHP when not catching

And that sounds like a lineup that could be pretty decent.

(08-07-2024, 02:20 PM)CJD Wrote: Elly is 91st percentile in fielding run value. He is 97th percentile in range/outs above average (10) and 91st percentile in arm strength. 

Relative to other players, he is 5th overall in the majors at shortstop in fielding run value and Outs above average.

The only shortstops who are better fielders than him this year are Bobby Witt Jr, Dansby Swanson, Anthony Volpe, and Francisco Lindor. 

He needs to cut down on errors, but the upside he provides FAR outweighs his occasional mistake.

I wouldn't mind seeing him at 3B because I think having an elite 3B/SS combo is generally better than an elite SS/2B combo, but it's close. Do you want to protect the middle of the infield or the far side of the infield? That's how I would decide where I would put McLain and Elly. But Elly is comfortably capable (and some may even call him elite) at either 3B or SS.

(08-07-2024, 01:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If we're talking a proper good signing and just going ahead and assuming we're not going to get Juan Soto (or realistically probably not anyone good, but going that far probably defeats the purpose/fun of discussion) some good/interesting options include...
Pete Alonso: 1B or DH
JD Martinez: DH
Tyler O'Neill: LF, moving Steer to DH
Teoscar Hernandez: RF, which lets you put Fraley at DH and then platoon him with Tyler Stephenson when he's not catching
Joc Pederson: DH

(08-07-2024, 03:50 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think even someone like Pete Alonso is a pipe dream and is not someone realistic for the Reds to sign.
They got guys like EDLC who will be coming up on big contract in the near future, so I can see them saving for extensions for some of those guys.

Joc Pederson might be someone near the top of what they would be willing to spend.
I don't see them spending >$15 mill APY for a hitter, especially after arguably overpaying for Candelario at $15 mill APY.

I think we all agree that they have room to add a bat or two. I just don't think they'll spend for a big name.

(08-07-2024, 02:56 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: A lot of advanced metrics are interesting and/or useful. That said any advanced metric that tries to tell me that a person can be on pace for 30 errors and be an elite defender is one I am just simply going to be automatically extremely skeptical of. That's up there with the folks back in 2011 talking about how Homer Bailey's xFIP of 3.77 was better than Johnny Cueto's xFIP of 3.90... even though Bailey had an ERA of 4.43 and averaged 6.0 innings per start and Cueto had an ERA of 2.31 and averaged ~6.2 innings per start. (This year Cruz has a 2.89 xFIP, Lodolo has a 3.83 xFIP, and Greene has a 4.12 xFIP... oh and Ashcraft and Montas both have a better one than Abbott, so you can't just take any metrics as straight gospel on their own, lol.)

Looking at other defensive advanced metrics EDLC ranks among 42 SS with at least 200 innings this year...
-6 Defensive Runs Saved (38th)
-1.8 Double Play Runs Above Average (41st)
-0.9 Range Runs Above Average (34th)
-2.3 Error Runs Above Average (37th)
-4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating (41st)
-8.1 UZR/150 (34th)

If a guy is leading MLB in errors, is on pace for 30 of them, and 6 other metrics back it up, common sense seems to be to ignore the other 2 that are saying he's elite.