(05-24-2016, 09:46 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I've been reading a lot about Nick Vigil. He was hyped a lot when we first drafted him and he's now being mentioned in Bengals articles and being complimented by Vontaze Burfict here:
http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/OTAs-a-GO/fbc61349-df13-4c2f-8d47-c9fca3b8d42c

And before I start, yes, the title is a little...intentionally eye catching?

I dunno. the point of the title is to compare the pre-draft ratings and the fanbase's perceptions of a player based on where they are drafted.

We have, on one hand, a guy who, according to the draft pundits, was a first round pick, guaranteed to be gone by the 2nd round. He is big, strong, fast, stout at defensive tackle. Almost the perfect nose tackle, but is a few inches too short and is a little too young and raw. Atkins proved that height doesn't have to hold a DT back and being young is rarely a bad thing, so it stands to reason that Billings could be equally successful in his role.

On the other hand, we have a player who was considered a fringe prospect by most draft pundits. While he has good instincts (something that can't be measured at a combine or pro day), he is considered to be too small, not athletic enough and generally, a mediocre LB prospect in Nick Vigil.

When Billings was drafted, the entire fan base celebrated (I truly believe every single person who calls themselves a Bengals fan loved that pick). We got a 1st or 2nd round pick in the 4th! Steal of the draft. Call it in guys, cuz we won this one! The pundits are completely right and this guy is going to be a star. The 31 teams that passed on him don't know what they're doing. Haha!

When Vigil was drafted, initially, there was a bit of confusion (mainly because Billings was still on the board at this point and people didn't get it.). Some negativity here and there, but many people were optimistic. When a report came out that Green Bay was planning on taking him with their pick coming up in the third round, people still questioned the pick here and there.

As the days went on, there were some outlets that called Vigil our best pick and others that called him a bad reach. Generally speaking, and with the assistance of players and coaches like Burfict comparing him to Luke K, the overall opinion of him in the fanbase became one unified voice. We got ANOTHER steal. The pundits don't know what they were talking about. Green Bay was going to draft him and they know what they're doing! This guy is going to be an amazing linebacker for us and all the draft pundits don't know what they're talking about!


My question is...which is it? Do you trust the draft pundits or don't you? If you do, you'd logically love the Billings pick and hate the Vigil pick. If you don't, you'd likely question why Billings dropped and you'd probably form your own opinion on Vigil, which may be a positive one (as it seems to be in the fanbase currently.)

Or, as we are all biased, is it just...we're gonna love every pick because the Bengals made them? We'll cherry pick the good and ignore the bad with just about everything the team does because we all, at our core, are hopeless optimists who want to believe we got the steal that no one else saw.

In my experience, the pundits are generally correct more often than the Bengals. Meaning, our late round picks that the pundits had rated high (such as Marvin Jones, George Iloka, AJ McCarron, Mohamed Sanu, Clint Boling, Vontaze Burfict etc) that slipped for no reason, generally, turn out better than the head scratching 'perceived reaches' that the Bengals quickly celebrate as steals (Margus Hunt, Will Clarke, Dontay Moch, Jerome Simpson, Kenny Irons etc).

If this trend continues, that means Billings will end up being a great player and Vigil will fizzle. That's not to say this formula is guaranteed. There have been 'perceived reaches' that worked out. I can't think of any, but I'm sure there are some. Likewise, there are highly rated players who dropped that haven't worked out as well (Devon Still, Orsen Charles, Brandon Ghee) but those are much more rare than the successes.

I like Vigil and I hope he plays well. We have taken productive college players that, theoretically, didn't project to the NFL well before and they have worked out. Geno Atkins fits that description pretty well, as does Andy Dalton and AJ McCarron.

But I'm getting a little confused with the amount of double speak going on in the fan base. If you trust the pundits on Billings (he'll be good), don't trust them on Vigil (he'll also be good) and love both picks, that just seems like homer-ism to me.

(05-24-2016, 09:59 AM)Au165 Wrote: You can like them both without it being homerisim. I personally like Billings even if he is only a 2 down DT because the game is going to more sub packages anyways so guys across the board are playing less and less. If all he does is stonewall runners every time he is in then he was well worth the 4th we spent and much more. If over time he can pass the rusher at least at an average competency then that's a bonus.

As for Vigil, I think being in an NFL weight program will help him add the needed weigh. The staff likes him a lot because he basically knows our scheme already. I think one of our issues with LB's over the years has been their inability to learn our scheme. With this kid already ahead of the curve there I think it will help him contribute early. Normally they act like these LB's are going to take a year or two, but they have said from day 1 he could see some playing time quickly. It doesn't hurt that Burffict loves the kid.

I don't worry about the pundits all that much because they are in a profession with 0 accountability for talking out of their ass. They say whatever they want, but no one checks them for the fact that they are wrong more often than right.

(05-25-2016, 12:56 AM)Shady Wrote: Vigil is the same size as Keuchely. He's big enough, but I agree that we needs to get stronger in order to excel at this level. The scary thing about Vigil is he's also as fast as Keuchely, and has similar instincts. If he becomes what they think he can become, he's going to be quite a player. I hope he stays healthy. 

(05-24-2016, 10:49 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: This is a very good thread CJD, but i am a homer on this one.

Billings was the player i wanted in the first, but we got WJ3 who i was very happy with, Boyd came in the 2nd who i thought
was the 2nd best Slot receiver in this draft behind Sterling Shephard but Boyd has better hands. Then came Nick Vigil who i
thought was a head scratcher at the time for sure.

With more looking up Vigil i saw a very smart LB'er who can cover very well and has lots of rare talents. I like the pick.

In the end we got Andrew Billings and that is all i really care about. But it makes the Vigil pick much better no question.

Honestly, i would probably be hating the Vigil pick right now if we didn't get Billings and Westerman though, honestly.

(05-25-2016, 07:48 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Yea, if we missed out on Billings in the 4th round, I'm pretty sure the whole fan base would despise Nick Vigil haha.

Yeah, me included. But the Billings pick makes it a solid one.

(05-24-2016, 09:59 AM)Au165 Wrote: You can like them both without it being homerisim. I personally like Billings even if he is only a 2 down DT because the game is going to more sub packages anyways so guys across the board are playing less and less. If all he does is stonewall runners every time he is in then he was well worth the 4th we spent and much more. If over time he can pass the rusher at least at an average competency then that's a bonus.

As for Vigil, I think being in an NFL weight program will help him add the needed weigh. The staff likes him a lot because he basically knows our scheme already. I think one of our issues with LB's over the years has been their inability to learn our scheme. With this kid already ahead of the curve there I think it will help him contribute early. Normally they act like these LB's are going to take a year or two, but they have said from day 1 he could see some playing time quickly. It doesn't hurt that Burffict loves the kid.

I don't worry about the pundits all that much because they are in a profession with 0 accountability for talking out of their ass. They say whatever they want, but no one checks them for the fact that they are wrong more often than right.

(05-24-2016, 10:09 AM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: I have to scratch my head when I see people comparing him to Kuechly.  Those are very big comparisons, especially for a guy who is smaller, not supposed to be overly strong, and was projected between rounds 3-5.  I hope I'm wrong, but figure this is one of the annual instances of the boards picking a player and saying he is the next great one at his position (half the board had Margus Hunt pegged as the next J.J. Watt).

(05-31-2016, 04:55 PM)Thundercloud Wrote: First let me answer the question.  I think the so-called pundits are right more than they're wrong. They just miss once in awhile, and we like to call them on it.

As to the picks, I would have been fine with Billings in the first, especially with all those receivers gone, so I was just happy to get him under any circumstances.

Vigil sort of gave me a WTF moment since I didn't know anything about him, but after reading our coaches comments after some of the on field activities, I'm thinking that they seem very happy with him. It would be a nice steal if he comes on strong.  I've always wanted us to spend some higher picks on linebackers.