+- Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise (https://thebengalsboard.com)
+-- Forum: Cincinnati Bengals / NFL (https://thebengalsboard.com/forum-3.html)
+--- Forum: JUNGLE NOISE (https://thebengalsboard.com/forum-2.html)
+--- Thread: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. (/thread-32067.html)
RE: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. - michaelsean - 04-26-2022
Anyone worried about the first place schedule, they went 1-2 with the last place schedule last year. Not that hard to match.
RE: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. - fredtoast - 04-26-2022
(04-26-2022, 12:25 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: SRS is a rating calculated by average margin of victory, and SOS is the mean SRS of your opponents. It is trying to find the quality of opponent, rather than just looking at their record. Who has the team played, and how much have they been winning or losing by?
I am not going to get into a hug debate over this because I agree that the Bengals had a soft schedule last year.
But "SRS = MoV/SoS" and SoS is supposedly based on SRS. So which came first? The chicken or the egg?
Or maybe I am just missing something.
RE: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. - KillerGoose - 04-26-2022
(04-26-2022, 01:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I am not going to get into a hug debate over this because I agree that the Bengals had a soft schedule last year.
But "SRS = MoV/SoS" and SoS is supposedly based on SRS. So which came first? The chicken or the egg?
Or maybe I am just missing something.
I'm likely just doing a poor job of explaining it. Let me start over from a point that helped me because I had a hard time figuring it out myself.
There are two components to SRS; MoV and SoS. SoS is really just a MoV calculation for your opponents. So, for Cincinnati, we take their point differential ((460 - 376)/17) which equals out to 4.9. That is Cincinnati's average margin of victory. You then run through this same process for every team that Cincinnati played. You will come to find that average margin of victory for Cincinnati opponents was -1.9. This -1.9 is their SoS. The final SRS for Cincinnati is 3.1 (4.9 - 1.9). Why is it 3.1 instead of 3? They probably aren't being very good with their rounding somewhere, but that is the formula.
The core of it all is just margin of victory. It's a recursive margin of victory calculation.
RE: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. - Sled21 - 04-26-2022
Eh hmmmm.....
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-nfl-strength-of-schedule-ranking-for-all-32-teams-heading-into-the-inaugural-17-game-season/
When they calculate the SOS, it's on the final standings of teams they year before. As I said, the Bengals were tied with the Lions and had the 6th toughest SOS
Quote:On the other hand, the Bengals and Lions, who are both playing a last-place schedule, tied for the sixth-most difficult strength of schedule.
Quote:RANK
OPPONENTS' COMBINED 2020 RECORD OPPONENTS' COMBINED 2020 WIN PERCENTAGE
1
Steelers
155-115-2
.574
2
Ravens
152-118-2
.563
3
Bears
149-122-1
.550
4
Packers
147-124-1
.542
5
Vikings
144-127-1
.531
T-6
Bengals
144-128
.529
T-6
Lions
143-127-2
.529
8
Raiders
142-128-2
.526
9
Browns
140-130-2
.518
10
Rams
140-132
.515
T-11
Chiefs
138-132-2
.511
T-11
Seahawks
139-133
.511
T-13
Titans
138-134
.507
T-13
Cardinals
138-134
.507
T-15
Washington
136-134-2
.504
T-15
Texans
137-135
.504
17
Chargers
133-137-2
.493
18
Jaguars
133-138-1
.491
T-19
49ers
132-138-2
.489
T-19
Jets
132-138-2
.489
T-19
Patriots
133-139
.489
22
Saints
131-140-1
.483
T-23
Bills
130-142
.478
T-23
Colts
130-142
.478
25
Giants
128-142-2
.474
26
Panthers
128-143-1
.472
T-27
Broncos
127-143-2
.471
T-27
Dolphins
128-144
.471
29
Buccaneers
126-145-1
.465
30
Falcons
123-148-1
.454
31
Cowboys
122-148-2
.452
32
Eagles
117-155
.430
RE: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. - KillerGoose - 04-26-2022
(04-26-2022, 03:25 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Eh hmmmm.....
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-nfl-strength-of-schedule-ranking-for-all-32-teams-heading-into-the-inaugural-17-game-season/
When they calculate the SOS, it's on the final standings of teams they year before. As I said, the Bengals were tied with the Lions and had the 6th toughest SOS
Then we are discussing two different things, I guess. I don't know why we would use records from 2020 to determine how difficult a schedule was instead of using the actual data from 2021. If anything, it shows how unreliable that method is. The Bengals were purported to have the 6th most difficult schedule and ended up playing one of, if not THE easiest schedule in the league. That's really what my point is - the Bengals did not have a hard schedule this past season.
RE: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. - Mike M (the other one) - 04-26-2022
(04-26-2022, 04:55 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Then we are discussing two different things, I guess. I don't know why we would use records from 2020 to determine how difficult a schedule was instead of using the actual data from 2021. If anything, it shows how unreliable that method is. The Bengals were purported to have the 6th most difficult schedule and ended up playing one of, if not THE easiest schedule in the league. That's really what my point is - the Bengals did not have a hard schedule this past season.
yea it's not an easy method either way. both have flaws.
Your's doesn't make a lot of sense either.
What does yours say about Detroit, Jax, Jets/Giants? that they had the hardest just cause they couldn't put up points?
RE: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. - KillerGoose - 04-26-2022
(04-26-2022, 06:43 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: yea it's not an easy method either way. both have flaws.
Your's doesn't make a lot of sense either.
What does yours say about Detroit, Jax, Jets/Giants? that they had the hardest just cause they couldn't put up points?
The strength of schedule isn't dependent on how the team does, but how their opponents do. The Jets had the 2nd most difficult schedule, because they played the Patriots twice, the Bills twice, the Titans, Eagles, Buccaneers, Saints and Bengals. All of these teams had positive ratings. The Lions are high as well, but again, it isn't because they were bad - it was because their opponents were good. The Lions played the Packers twice, the Bengals, the Rams, Cardinals, Eagles, and 49ers. Seven of their games were against playoff teams, including the Super Bowl participants and the 49ers, who were in the conference game.
Jacksonville? Tough schedule. They played the Cardinals, Bengals, Titans x2, Bills, 49ers, Rams, Patriots. They also played the Colts twice, who had a good rating but missed out on the playoffs. This SoS rating is just looking at your opponents and who they have played plus margin of victory. If your opponents have played good teams and beat them by a large MoV, you have a tough schedule.
RE: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. - jason - 04-26-2022
Formulas and tabulation aside: I don't think our schedule was terribly easy last year. The AFC West, Green Bay, the 49ers, and our own tough division... That's not a cakewalk.
RE: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. - rfaulk34 - 04-26-2022
(04-25-2022, 09:37 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Burrow, Chase, Higgins and Boyd are going to be too good to not use consistently. The same argument applies. I don’t think their split looks much different than it did this year, something like 60-40 pass or 58-42 pass. We’ll see, though, who knows. The team will be able to do both very well, I just think they are a team better built for passing.
Yep. If they can just raise the per rush by .5 to .8, they will kick some ass as long as they're healthy.
RE: Winning when no one expects it is fun. Winning when you are supposed to win is hard. - rfaulk34 - 04-26-2022
(04-26-2022, 05:12 AM)grampahol Wrote: I'll just remember the pretty good punt returners who almost never put the ball on the ground and yet there were numerous members here who wanted said player gone just because they didn't return them all for TDs.. Perhaps the debacle last season with Phillips will make some of you appreciate just not fumbling the damned ball a bit more than years past.. Phillips almost single handedly got us out of the playoffs if anyone recalls..
I'd much prefer a slow, plodding 8 yard return guy who never fumbles over some flash in the pan, a TD once every few years type guy, but still coughs up the ball several times a year.... Yes..It's all fun. I want em to win it all, but I still remember when they couldn't win a ticket to the way out the door..
What about a guy that would have as many TD returns as fumbles? Would you take that guy?