(05-23-2016, 10:54 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That is a downright silly argument, Essex. By no means does it take 4 to 5 years to find out what you have in players. That's right up there with the people who called Kirkpatrick a rookie for like 4 years.

-It took 2 to start a conversation and 3 to establish Geno Atkins at one of the best DT in the game right now without a doubt.
-It took Burfict 2 to make himself one of the best 4-3 LB in the NFL.
-OBJ was in the conversation to be among the best right from his rookie year.
-Adrian Peterson was one of the best from Day 1.
-It took Peyton Manning only 2 years.
-It took Antonio Brown 2 years (his second year was actually the first he got ANY starts, so by your 4-5 years of starting criteria, it only took him 1 year).
-It took AJ Green 2 years to be a top-10 guy.

etc, etc, etc

There is no way that it takes 4-5 years of starting to know what you have in a player, and how good they are.


- - - - - - - - -
As for his theoretical 10 year numbers, it WON'T be HoF numbers by the time he is eligible (5 years after retirement, so 10 years from now in your 10 year career scenario) because of how the game has changed...

Dante Lavelli ('46-'56): 386/6,488/72
Raymond Berry ('55-'67): 631/9,275/68
Charlie Joiner ('69-'86): 750/12,146/65
Tim Brown (''88-'04): 1,094/14,934/100

Chances are, you're going to need 1,300/20,000/130-type numbers in order to get in by the time AJ Green is eligible. Anquan Boldin is sitting on 13,195 yards and he probably won't make it in seeing as how there's 3 active players with more yards and Marshall will almost certainly pass him before he retires.

When Boldin entered the NFL in 2003, there were 2 QBs who passed for 4,000+ yards.
When AJ entered the NFL in 2011, there were 10 QBs who passed for 4,000+ yards and 3 who passed for 5,000+ yards.
Last year, even with all the QB injuries and backup QBs who were playing, there were still 12 QBs who passed for 4,000 yards.

- - - - - - - - - - - -

Side note: You really don't think Marshall compares with AJ? He's been playing at a higher level than AJ for a bit now. Guy has put up at least 1,200 yard seasons with 4 different teams with a plethora of various shit QBs (Cutler, Orton, Henne, Thigpen, Moore, Campbell, McCown, Clausen, Fitzpatrick), including 2 seasons of 1,500+ yards.

Plus Hopkins has gone from 800 yards, to 1,200 yards, to 1,500 yards.. with some of the worst QBs in the league. (Schaub, Keenum, Fitzpatrick, Hoyer, Mallett, Weeden, Yates)


(Holy shit those are some really bad QBs. I knew they were bad, but actually typing all those out really hit harder than reading them. Lol)

(05-24-2016, 12:11 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Just quickly off the top of my head I'll give you two players that counter your argument Victor Cruz and Mike Wallace both started out very strong after two to three years and after that did not continue on that projection regardless for what reasons those are two quick examples so sorry yes I believe four to five years give you a much better gauge of a player I'm sure I could list more I just don't have the time and I'm tired for now those two will do

(05-24-2016, 01:15 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Victor Cruz was just plagued with injuries, and Mike Wallace was a deep threat receiver, and he went to teams with QBs that weren't good with the deep ball.

(05-24-2016, 06:57 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Are other teams's #2s really that good? Never have I ever seen such generous praise for guys like Terrance Williams, Golden Tate, Phillip Dorsett, and the like. I mean...AJ doesn't put up top 3 yards every year but he also doesn't play in weak divisions and he doesn't get to play in garbage time from behind a lot. Having a good defense really seems like a hindrance to fantasy points the more that I think about it. Have Dez Bryant or Julio Jones ever made the playoffs? Serious question. I don't know that either of them have, yet we have all of the talking heads and fantasy gurus saying that they are in a different league than Green. I personally don't see it, nor do I think that a lot of the more established #2s are heads and shoulders better than Lafell. Time will tell, but I see a lot of doom and gloom in this thread. AJ Green is still a really, really good WR.

(05-24-2016, 01:15 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Victor Cruz was just plagued with injuries, and Mike Wallace was a deep threat receiver, and he went to teams with QBs that weren't good with the deep ball.

(05-24-2016, 02:37 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I didn't get a chance to defend myself yesterday so I will try to do so now in a succinct manner.

I think the departure of Marvin Jones leaves us void of a deep threat who can do more than just that on the outside. The only guy with any deep speed (other than AJ) is Alford, and he isn't going to be out there much if at all. Without that deep threat, you will see teams roll cloud coverage to AJs side every play. The back left of the field(from Dalton's eyes) will not need to be protected as thoroughly as it used to be.

Brownshoe (and others) argue that a rookie WR can come in here and just tear the place up, but if you want a look at what the stud rookie receivers did last year, here is a list.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/1/year/2015/wide-receivers
and here is 2014
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/1/year/2014/wide-receivers

but please tell me more about rookie WRs seamlessly transitioning into the NFL.

Exhibit A: Marqis Lee vs Tyler Boyd... Seems pretty similar, and I haven't seen marqis lee destroy this league yet.. but im waiting....  (compared these two because of their draft placement and college careers are similar)
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/marqise-lee-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tyler-boyd-1.html

So while the production of Sanu and Jones isn't something spectacular on paper, there were many things they did to keep the defense honest (especially MJ). The left side of our offense got a ton weaker and things will be rougher for AJ this year.

On top of all of this, one injury brings in the Tate train... or who knows who else. We honestly don't have much depth outside of our top 3 which is the main reason why I think our WR room isn't as polished and set as some others on this board claim it to be.

(05-24-2016, 04:05 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Look at the rookie WR's that were drafted to teams that needed WR... they all seemed to produce with the exception of a few. A lot of rookie WRs that don't produce get drafted to teams where there's already a couple of solid WRs in front of them.

LaFell doesn't have blazing speed, but he's played the outside fine on other teams. The last time he played on the outside the majority of the time is when he had almost 1k yards and 7 TDs.

Last year one injury brings in the "Tate train" too, so I don't see your point. The WR core is fine, and it's just as good as last year. Hell it might even be better.

(05-24-2016, 04:39 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: uhh what? every team that drafted a WR in the 1st two rounds needed one lol otherwise they wouldn't be taking one in the 1st 2 rounds

So who were all these rookies? The guy from Oakland who was a #4 overall pick? Stefon Diggs in the 5th round or Tyler Lockett in the 3rd? JJ Nelson maybe (another 5th rounder)?

4 guys out of an entire draft of wrs, nice!

Look, I'm not saying Boyd is bad, quite the contrary. What I'm saying is, from a statistical standpoint, the odds of a rookie WR coming in and producing (at the level you are expecting) is slimmer than you think. You can show me the OBJs of the world, but for every OBJ there are 10 other guys who didn't live up to their potential.

You completely skimmed over the Marquis Lee portion of my argument (wonder why), someone with great college resume, that hasn't translated yet to the NFL. Boyd could very well be this, or as I eluded to (and hope) he is more of an Allen Robinson, that comes in and gest going quickly. Either way, you are HOPING he can do it, you don't KNOW anything yet.




As for Lafell, I'm gonna go full Freddy on you. Jones and Sanu got how big of contracts? How long was Lafell on the open market? Tell me more about how Lafell is better than Sanu and Jones. There is a reason he was run out of NE. Once again, I'm not saying he is bad, I'm saying GMs and coaches value Marvin Jones and Sanu more, and that should tell you something about what we lost in those 2.

(05-24-2016, 04:39 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: uhh what? every team that drafted a WR in the 1st two rounds needed one lol otherwise they wouldn't be taking one in the 1st 2 rounds

So who were all these rookies? The guy from Oakland who was a #4 overall pick? Stefon Diggs in the 5th round or Tyler Lockett in the 3rd? JJ Nelson maybe (another 5th rounder)?

4 guys out of an entire draft of wrs, nice!

Look, I'm not saying Boyd is bad, quite the contrary. What I'm saying is, from a statistical standpoint, the odds of a rookie WR coming in and producing (at the level you are expecting) is slimmer than you think. You can show me the OBJs of the world, but for every OBJ there are 10 other guys who didn't live up to their potential.

You completely skimmed over the Marquis Lee portion of my argument (wonder why), someone with great college resume, that hasn't translated yet to the NFL. Boyd could very well be this, or as I eluded to (and hope) he is more of an Allen Robinson, that comes in and gest going quickly. Either way, you are HOPING he can do it, you don't KNOW anything yet.


As for Lafell, I'm gonna go full Freddy on you. Jones and Sanu got how big of contracts? How long was Lafell on the open market? Tell me more about how Lafell is better than Sanu and Jones. There is a reason he was run out of NE. Once again, I'm not saying he is bad, I'm saying GMs and coaches value Marvin Jones and Sanu more, and that should tell you something about what we lost in those 2.

(05-24-2016, 04:39 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I'm gonna go full Freddy on you. Jones and Sanu got how big of contracts? How long was Lafell on the open market? Tell me more about how Lafell is better than Sanu and Jones. There is a reason he was run out of NE. Once again, I'm not saying he is bad, I'm saying GMs and coaches value Marvin Jones and Sanu more, and that should tell you something about what we lost in those 2.

(05-24-2016, 05:10 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: You do realize that a lot of the top receivers out of the 2015 draft was had injuries and couldn't play right? Plus not all of the receivers drafted in the first two rounds were drafted to teams that needed a receiver that year.

(05-24-2016, 07:45 PM)bfine32 Wrote: They got those big contracts because of....wait for it.........potential; similar to why you draft a WR early. Unless there is some production you want to point to that trumps LaFell. 

You never go full Freddy.

(05-24-2016, 08:14 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: The Bengals fully intended to pay for that potential, so I don't see your point. Their first choice was Jones.

(05-24-2016, 08:27 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I guess the point is that our WR corp isn't going to fall off much from last year.

MLJ's and Sanu's potential is moot to that discussion.

(05-24-2016, 08:11 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: It's nice to know you read the first line of a long post and respond solely to that, I will remember not to debate with you anymore.

(05-24-2016, 08:48 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote:   What?

MLJ had the potential to be a great #2 going forward here for quite some time. It has plenty to do with this discussion. It's part of my reasoning as to why a top 10 receiving group could fall so many spots.

He complimented AJ well. Guys fit in on some teams, and don't on others. MLJ could fizzle out with the Lions. One thing we do know, he was a good #2 here. We don't know that about Lafell, we don't know anything about Boyd either.

This argument could go in circles for a while lol so lets just agree that we all hope Boyd and Lafell are fricken awesome this year. I think they are both good players put in a situation to succeed, I just hope they have instant chemistry with Andy.