+- Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise (https://thebengalsboard.com)
+-- Forum: Cincinnati Bengals / NFL (https://thebengalsboard.com/forum-3.html)
+--- Forum: JUNGLE NOISE (https://thebengalsboard.com/forum-2.html)
+--- Thread: Any news on the tag? (/thread-26900.html)
RE: Any news on the tag? - Essex Johnson - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 06:35 PM)jj22 Wrote: Well I mean if you want me to show the beating our pass D has taken the last 3 years. But why? You've seen it just like we all have.So if pressures dont matter why did Burrow struggle when pressured
Paying 14m for Lawson or any DE's to apply pressure just to have the QB complete the pass on route to wins, yardage, and 100+ passer ratings quicker than they would have without pressure is no way to build a team.
Only players who don't 'get sacks use pressure to try to convince people sacks aren't everything.
Pressure isn't everything when the QB still lights up the Defense.
RE: Any news on the tag? - Au165 - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 07:51 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: So if pressures dont matter why did Burrow struggle when pressured
Everyone in the NFL recognizes how important they are and their value. The fact a couple people here don’t doesn’t change that. The issue is pass rushing for the most part is a unit like offensive line. Just like Jonah Williams can’t carry the whole O line Lawson can’t carry the defensive line, but when it comes to pass rushers people like to act as if it’s a singular entity. His win rate, doing his job, was one of the best in the league. If anyone else could have won their match up at even a league average Lawson as well as the team would have saw more production in the more fan friendly sack stat.
RE: Any news on the tag? - Wes Mantooth - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 07:51 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: So if pressures dont matter why did Burrow struggle when pressured
You should be able to clearly see that he's not arguing that pressures don't matter. He's arguing that they don't matter so much that you can completely overlook sack totals. (They both matter, and one drives the market more than the other)
He's totally right. Carl Lawson is an 8-10 mil type of player right now. Maybe someone overpays him by a mil or two and gets upwards of around 12. Regardless, it's not a wise move for a team like the Bengals to pony up money beyond reason (10 mil) with as many holes as we have.
RE: Any news on the tag? - Au165 - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 07:56 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: You should be able to clearly see that he's not arguing that pressures don't matter. He's arguing that they don't matter so much that you can completely overlook sack totals. (They both matter, and one drives the market more than the other)
He's totally right. Carl Lawson is an 8-10 mil type of player right now. Maybe someone overpays him by a mil or two and gets upwards of around 12. Regardless, it's not a wise move for a team like the Bengals to pony up money beyond reason (10 mil) with as many holes as we have.
Sacks are not a stat indicative of skill. They are a stat that encompasses many other factors hence why teams have shifted to win rate and other advanced metrics.
RE: Any news on the tag? - bfine32 - 03-09-2021
Before I weigh in. I need one of the pressure experts to tell me what constitutes a pressure.
RE: Any news on the tag? - Au165 - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 08:04 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Before I weigh in. I need one of the pressure experts to tell me what constitutes a pressure.
Pressure is the sum of hurries, QB knockdowns/hits and sack plays. Hurries are usually considered any play where the QB is induced to throw the ball earlier than intended or chased out of the pocket. That can be why different sites will vary slightly but usually the variance carries between players so they stay relatively the same in terms of order from site to site.
RE: Any news on the tag? - jj22 - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 07:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Our pass efficiency defense with Lawson ranked higher (22nd) than our pass efficiency offense with Burrow (25th).
So why does your logic only apply to one side of the argument? Why is Lawson judged only on team stats while Burrow is not? Why does pressure matter when talking about our QB but not opposing QBs?
You are the one who keeps bringing up Burrow, so I'm not sure why you are trying to drag me down that rabbit hole. Pressure matters when we talk about our Qb because we can see how it effected him.
Pressure for Lawson isn't worth 14m when talking about opposing QB's because we saw how it effected them (it didn't).
It isn't rocket science.
RE: Any news on the tag? - jj22 - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 08:08 PM)Au165 Wrote: Pressure is the sum of hurries, QB knockdowns/hits and sack plays. Hurries are usually considered any play where the QB is induced to throw the ball earlier than intended or chased out of the pocket. That can be why different sites will vary slightly but usually the variance carries between players so they stay relatively the same in terms of order from site to site.
I think sack plays count as sacks. Other than that this is how I see it as well.
RE: Any news on the tag? - fredtoast - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 07:56 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: You should be able to clearly see that he's not arguing that pressures don't matter.
Actually that is exactly what he is saying.
He claims that pressure from the Bengal defense has no effect at all on the opposing passer.
(03-09-2021, 07:23 PM)jj22 Wrote: Why aren't you talking about Lawson and his contributions to the D we see every Sunday?
Maybe on other Defenses where they actually helped or effected the passer.
RE: Any news on the tag? - Au165 - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 08:09 PM)jj22 Wrote: I think sack plays count as sacks. Other than that this is how I see it as well.
No, sacks are included in pressures it encompasses everything to give the complete picture everyone here keeps referring to but won’t listen when others use pressures.
RE: Any news on the tag? - jj22 - 03-09-2021
Honestly. I don't care about any teams finances but the Bengals and regardless of the debate, can't no one say Lawsons "hurries" have done much to stop opposing qb's.
We've all witnessed it with our own eyes.
RE: Any news on the tag? - jj22 - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 08:10 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually that is exactly what he is saying.
He claims that pressure from the Bengal defense has no effect at all on the opposing passer.
***correction. Lawson. That is all I am talking about.
You keep bringing up Burrow, the Defense as a whole, everything to avoid the point (that all Lawson has done is rush the QB into slicing up the D, as opposed to giving him more time to).
I've stuck to the thread. All the other stuff is a distraction from the point that opposing qb's haven't been effected much by being hurried into their completion by Lawson.
I'm not paying for a quicker beatdown. We should pay for stops, and effective rates of hurries, which can only be done by looking at each individual one which the Bengals clearly have and we can only assume agree with me.
RE: Any news on the tag? - fredtoast - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 08:08 PM)jj22 Wrote: Pressure for Lawson isn't worth 14m when talking about opposing QB's because we saw how it effected them (it didn't).
I guarantee you that it did effect our opposing QBs. Want to make a sig bet on it? I'll even let you pick the stat sight that keeps records of the difference between QBs under pressure and not under pressure.
Bengals pass defense was not dead last in the league. We were 22nd in pass efficiency defense and 19th in yards.
RE: Any news on the tag? - pulses - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 07:56 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: You should be able to clearly see that he's not arguing that pressures don't matter. He's arguing that they don't matter so much that you can completely overlook sack totals. (They both matter, and one drives the market more than the other)
He's totally right. Carl Lawson is an 8-10 mil type of player right now. Maybe someone overpays him by a mil or two and gets upwards of around 12. Regardless, it's not a wise move for a team like the Bengals to pony up money beyond reason (10 mil) with as many holes as we have.
We could probably get Okwara for 10-12 and he has as much potential or more than Lawson so I agree not to overpay him. I think Hendrickson is another good one we might look at.
RE: Any news on the tag? - Au165 - 03-09-2021
The NFL looks at pressures no matter what the fans think. It’s said constantly by coaches but here is a recent excerpt from a PFT article where Mike Smith talked about it.
As explained by Packers outside linebackers coach Mike Smith, what really measures a pass rusher’s worth is how many pressures he gets over the course of a season. Sacks represent such a small number of plays over the course of a year (about 7 percent of all dropbacks resulted in sacks last season) that they simply can’t measure everything a pass rusher does.
“I don’t know what happened. A long time ago somebody — probably when they started recording sacks — fans, coaches, whoever, defined a great pass rusher, or an effective pass rusher, off of sacks. That’s one of the stupidest things I’ve ever seen. You define a great pass-rusher by consistency,” Smith said.
All the analytics back up this take. PFF and football outsiders have done countless articles explaining the game theory behind it all. People who simply say “we saw it with our eyes” are ignorant to the totality that goes into playing defense.
RE: Any news on the tag? - jj22 - 03-09-2021
Also keep an eye on Ngakoue as a replacement. Familiar with the new DLine coach, and got 8 sacks in 2020 after switching teams and learning 2 defenses in a 16 game span.
Maybe already mentioned as I saw some names mentioned already.
RE: Any news on the tag? - fredtoast - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 08:14 PM)jj22 Wrote: You keep bringing up Burrow, the Defense as a whole, everything to avoid the point (that all Lawson has done is rush the QB into slicing up the D, as opposed to giving him more time to).
I've stuck to the thread. All the other stuff is a distraction from the point that opposing qb's haven't been effected much by being hurried into their completion by Lawson.
So what about the 13 defenses that were worse against the pass than the Bengals. Are you saying pressure on the passer had no effect against them either?
You keep trying to make an argument with nothing to prove it. You use team stats to attack Lawson as an individual and then you don't even look at the team stats. Instead you say that pressure did not effect opposing QBs because we ranked 19th in pass defense. That makes no sense at all. You act like it is impossible for our pass defense to be any worse yet 13 teams were worse than us. There is no logic to back up your position.
RE: Any news on the tag? - bfine32 - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 08:08 PM)Au165 Wrote: Pressure is the sum of hurries, QB knockdowns/hits and sack plays. Hurries are usually considered any play where the QB is induced to throw the ball earlier than intended or chased out of the pocket. That can be why different sites will vary slightly but usually the variance carries between players so they stay relatively the same in terms of order from site to site.
Yeah hurries and knockdown sound kinda shady. Who determines if the QB released the ball earlier than intended? As I understand knockdowns; those are counted when a QB hits the ground after the throw; so that puts a lot on the QB.
Now I know exactly what a sack and a tackle for loos is; I don't need anyone to interpret.
WTS,I'll bet anyone in here currently pimping pressure will pimp sacks if Lawson hits double digits next year. It's a results driven league. Point trump yards, Ints trump PDs, and sacks trump "pressures".
Without looking at pressure stats I'll take Bud Dupree over Law Dog, because of sacks,
RE: Any news on the tag? - jj22 - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 08:18 PM)Au165 Wrote: “I don’t know what happened. A long time ago somebody — probably when they started recording sacks — fans, coaches, whoever, defined a great pass rusher, or an effective pass rusher, off of sacks. That’s one of the stupidest things I’ve ever seen. You define a great pass-rusher by consistency,” Smith said.
Well that was anticlimactic as he didn't end with "pressure or hurries".
RE: Any news on the tag? - Au165 - 03-09-2021
(03-09-2021, 08:20 PM)jj22 Wrote: Also keep an eye on Ngakoue as a replacement. Familiar with the new DLine coach, and got 8 sacks in 2020 after switching teams and learning 2 defenses in a 16 game span.
Maybe already mentioned as I saw some names mentioned already.
Probably going to get 14-16 a year annual value and had 20 less pressures. Not a bad replacement but not the savings I think people around here are expecting.