(03-24-2022, 10:43 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: This will be his sixth season, he has been here for a while. He is also wearing out the tread on his tires, which is my concern. RBs start seeing increasing performance declines after they hit the 1k carry mark and Mixon has struggled with injuries already. Mixon has 1104 carries thus far in his career. Using historical data I've put together from various "bell cow" RBs, I am projecting him out to have 4.3 yards per carry this season. I do think that Mixon is quite the talent and that the offensive line will be improved, so I am throwing a +- of 0.2 yards. So, 4.1 to 4.5 is my guess for the upcoming season. 

(03-24-2022, 03:53 PM)basballguy Wrote: You seem to have put some effort into researching this but I think you're underestimating what RBs are capable of.  It's hard to believe 1k attempts would be the drop off when just least season there were 2 active players over 3k attempts.  

I don't think anyone is predicting Derrick Henry to decline this season.  He's at 1400 or so attempts.  

I thought the general consensus is RBs "peak" at 25 or so.  I'm inclined to believe Mixon has better odds of having his best ever season (versus  beginning a decline in production).

https://apexfantasyleagues.com/peak-age-nfl-running-back/

(03-24-2022, 03:53 PM)basballguy Wrote: You seem to have put some effort into researching this but I think you're underestimating what RBs are capable of.  It's hard to believe 1k attempts would be the drop off when just least season there were 2 active players over 3k attempts.  

I don't think anyone is predicting Derrick Henry to decline this season.  He's at 1400 or so attempts.  

I thought the general consensus is RBs "peak" at 25 or so.  I'm inclined to believe Mixon has better odds of having his best ever season (versus  beginning a decline in production).

https://apexfantasyleagues.com/peak-age-nfl-running-back/

(03-24-2022, 05:31 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: It isn't age but carries that have more to do with it from what I am finding, though both factor in. To your point about Henry, he was having one of the least efficient seasons of his career up until his injury in 2021. He had eye popping numbers, but he also had eye popping carries (on pace for 460+). Coming off of a broken foot with 1400 carries at age 28, I do think he will continue his decline. The thing is, he is declining from 5+ YPC and a 2k yard season. He will still be a good RB, but I don't think he will be the Henry we are familiar with.

Regarding Mixon, I think he will have a career year as well, but that is primarily because he has been running behind some putrid lines for his whole career. Essentially, I am saying that a younger Mixon would likely feast behind this line. I think Mixon now will still do well, but not as well as some people think he will. He is a talented back, but has struggled with injuries and has some mileage on him. That is factoring into my 4.3-ish guess as far as his YPC goes. The correlation isn't perfect, though, so of course he could outperform my guess. I'm just making some predictions and analyzing the data I have. I could probably stand to have a bigger dataset as well.

Finally, you mentioned the backs with over 3000 carries this past season. Frank Gore last played in 2020, but Peterson did play last season. Both were awful, however. Peterson averaged less than 3 yards per carry, and Gore was only at 3.5. At that average, they were genuinely net negatives for their respective teams.

EDIT - I went back and looked. Age and carries have nearly the exact same correlation to YPC. This makes sense, I guess. A player is likely to have a high amount of carries as he ages. 

(03-24-2022, 06:16 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Maybe should start a different thread about this, but with RBs "carries" wear then down more than "receptions".  FootballOutsiders has done different studies on this.  Basically anytime a RB carries more than 350 times in a season he is likely to be injured the next year.  Last year Mixon had a career high 292 carries.

However it is interesting to note that over his last 6 games (Bal and KC in regular season then 4 postseason) Mixon averaged 5.2 receptions and only 16.1 carries.  Over a 17 games season that would only be 275 carries but with 88 receptions.  363 is a lot a lot of "touches", but according to FootballOutsiders receptions do not wear a RB down as much as carries.

(03-24-2022, 06:17 PM)Science Friction Wrote: I don't think everyone is underestimating us.    nfl.com  power rankings  has the Bengals #3 , behind only the Bills and Rams.

(03-24-2022, 06:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Makes sense and I hope we keep using Mixon the way we did late in the season.

Just need to add another RB in the Draft that can carry a bit of the load while being able to pick up the blitz and catch the ball.

(03-24-2022, 06:44 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: That’s not easy with so many holes that need addressing first. They can’t rely on Joe for picking up the blitz. Evans can’t pick up the tough yardage. They like Perine a lot more than the fans lol. My insider says they are perfectly happy with Perine.Plays on all the special teams.

(03-24-2022, 05:31 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: It isn't age but carries that have more to do with it from what I am finding, though both factor in. To your point about Henry, he was having one of the least efficient seasons of his career up until his injury in 2021. He had eye popping numbers, but he also had eye popping carries (on pace for 460+). Coming off of a broken foot with 1400 carries at age 28, I do think he will continue his decline. The thing is, he is declining from 5+ YPC and a 2k yard season. He will still be a good RB, but I don't think he will be the Henry we are familiar with.

Regarding Mixon, I think he will have a career year as well, but that is primarily because he has been running behind some putrid lines for his whole career. Essentially, I am saying that a younger Mixon would likely feast behind this line. I think Mixon now will still do well, but not as well as some people think he will. He is a talented back, but has struggled with injuries and has some mileage on him. That is factoring into my 4.3-ish guess as far as his YPC goes. The correlation isn't perfect, though, so of course he could outperform my guess. I'm just making some predictions and analyzing the data I have. I could probably stand to have a bigger dataset as well.

Finally, you mentioned the backs with over 3000 carries this past season. Frank Gore last played in 2020, but Peterson did play last season. Both were awful, however. Peterson averaged less than 3 yards per carry, and Gore was only at 3.5. At that average, they were genuinely net negatives for their respective teams.

EDIT - I went back and looked. Age and carries have nearly the exact same correlation to YPC. This makes sense, I guess. A player is likely to have a high amount of carries as he ages. 

(03-24-2022, 06:01 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I definitely think Mixon will have his best season ever this year behind this improved run blocking O-line.

I bet he averages anywhere between 4.8 and 5.2 YPC this season. I just don't want him being OVER used like we were 
doing a bit last season. The other RB's namely Evans were hardly used at all in the running game, this needs to change
and we need to add another back a bigger one than Evans preferably as it doesn't look like Perine is coming back.


One thing about Mixon is he wasn't overly used at Oklahoma either like some RB's are in college. Some RB's get worn
out in college and do nothing in the NFL, this happens a lot honestly. While I believe that Mixon will have a higher YPC 
this season you make some great points and I understand your thinking. I hope Mixon has some magic in him to help 
him last longer as it is a bit of a shame that if we would of got this OL upgraded sooner in his career I think he could 
of been one of the best.

(03-24-2022, 06:55 PM)basballguy Wrote: And he was splitting carries with none other than....Samaje Perine.  

(03-24-2022, 03:22 PM)Sled21 Wrote: The case never made it to trial, the Grand Jury declined to indict. That could mean a lot of things. You need 9 jurors to vote to indict in Texas. Maybe 4 of the 12 were football fans who like Watson. Maybe the prosecutor didn't do a good job. Who knows. 

(03-25-2022, 08:19 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Right, but the civil cases are still pending, right?  That was my point...Then again, he has ridiculous money now to silence, er, settle with them and forced non-disclosure agreements a la Piggy. 

(03-25-2022, 08:25 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Yes, he still has to settle the civil cases.

(03-25-2022, 08:26 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I'm betting one of those civil cases ends up having video, threatens to release it, and gets a MASSIVE payday....

(03-22-2022, 11:14 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: So what's up with all the hate from the media, fans of other teams, etc?

Is this just what comes from being successful? It seems like NO ONE is giving this team a chance next year. The Browns and Ravens are the teams that people are already picking to win the division. Fans on other social media platforms are the worst. We went from being the darling in the playoffs last year to everyone shitting on us and calling last year a "fluke".

It just blows my mind. This team is really good, complete team that had success last year and got BETTER this year. NO ONE is talking about us.

And I know I know - I shouldn't listen to the media and fans...but I do. Because it's fun and it's part of being a fan. I mean, what the hell gives?

(03-25-2022, 02:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If there was video he would have been indited on criminal charges. I believe these women knew they were going to have sex with them. It was all consensual. 

(03-25-2022, 02:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If there was video he would have been indited on criminal charges. I believe these women knew they were going to have sex with them. It was all consensual.