(04-15-2020, 10:54 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I just don't think Mixon has that second level burst to take it to the house.

Mixon has never had a 20+ yd TD before in 801 touches.
McCaffrey had 5 last year alone, with 4 of the 5 being 40+ yards.

You either have it, or you don't. It could be vision, it could be speed. Either way, over 800 touches without it happening is significant.

(04-16-2020, 10:11 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Mixon has the long runs.  In 2018 he was second in the league in runs over 20 yards and third in runs over 40 yards.

(04-16-2020, 03:40 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I may be in the minority here, but it is hard to fault Mixon. The career length of most RBs is not very long, and he has first round talent on a 2nd round contract due to his assualt.

While here however, he has been no problem off the field at all and has run hard and had really good numbers on some bad teams. He is a talent and a weapon and there is no reason not to extend him, especially if you have Dalton coming off the books and a rookie QB contract for 5 years.

(04-15-2020, 06:39 PM)Big_Ern Wrote: No, you're wrong. 

(04-16-2020, 10:57 AM)Benton Wrote: Going back two years to pluck stats to prove your point is like saying 14 years ago Generic Quarterback was second in the league in deep balls and third in first downs.

(04-15-2020, 10:51 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I understand but for every Gurley  look at what players like Sammy Watkins and Jarvis Landry have been getting paid...   It seems RB's is the press when they want more $$ because there are less of them but WRs go under the radar with some large contracts themselves

(04-15-2020, 10:54 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I just don't think Mixon has that second level burst to take it to the house.

Mixon has never had a 20+ yd TD before in 801 touches.
McCaffrey had 5 last year alone, with 4 of the 5 being 40+ yards.

You either have it, or you don't. It could be vision, it could be speed. Either way, over 800 touches without it happening is significant.

(04-15-2020, 11:11 PM)Bengalstripes18 Wrote: Thanks, I like your take as well. 

I'd be fine with overpaying him a little bit. Definitely not McCaffrey numbers--but somewhere in between his value and that of the top 2 backs. 

I think 12 mil per year is fair. Yeah, he's probably only worth 10 mil right now...but seeing as he'll likely be worth 15 mil in a year once they get this offense going, we'll have saved some money. It's also less likely he tries to force a new contract in 2 years time if he's only underpaid by a couple mil. After 3 years we draft a back and let him hit free agency/cash in for a slightly bigger pay day. 

This of course assumes he stays healthy. As I've said before, I think he is more durable than the majority of running backs. I think we have a good supporting cast to lighten his load. But say he does get injured in a couple years, we still have options. If they front-load the contract the first 3 years, then we could likely move on if he gets injured in year 3. He just needs to stay healthy the first 2 years, but obviously you'd like to see him healthy all 4, and get paid in free agency when we part ways.

Overall it just makes sense to spend the money and give Burrow all the weapons we can. Take advantage of his rookie salary while we can. 

(04-16-2020, 12:52 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: This article if I'm understanding it right and they're right a holdout is very unlikely.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2020/4/16/21223421/why-4th-year-players-chris-carson-joe-mixon-wont-hold-out-new-cba-seattle-seahawks-bengals-accrued

(04-15-2020, 11:42 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Good points. RB was basically an after thought for me when it came to the draft. Now depending on how serious this is it just put RB back into the mix. I am normally a you draft a RB every year guy. But we drafted two last year so I was going to let it play out. Now I know we need to be on the lookout for value that falls at RB in the draft.

Our head coach just watched his old team struggle with releasing a young RB who they gave a giant contract to and put them in a bad financial situation. I don’t think he is going to be easy to convince paying huge money to a RB is worth it.

But I don’t think he would be better betting on himself. Another monster year and he could get a big payday. Or if Zeke and Run CMC struggle or if Mixon gets banged up he is looking at even more damage to his value. I would bet we are willing to give him a team friendly pay raise with a handsome sized guarantee. It won’t make him the highest paid RB. But it would set his family up for life and allow him to be a key piece on an up and coming contender for years to come.

(04-16-2020, 11:03 AM)masonbengals fan Wrote: Good post. Hope they get a deal done soon. He deserves a raise but he's not worth McCaffrey type money at this point. 


 We don't need a hold out to spoil the good karma we have going.

But I do understand he has to look out for himself.

(04-16-2020, 03:16 PM)samhain Wrote: I see your point.  My main reason for saying he should bet on himself is that I see the potential for him to do much more on paper than he has.  IMO that's what's keeping him from really being able to demand a top-end contract.  He's great and could possibly be a top 3 back in the league.  Unfortunately, he's had to run behind some piss-poor lines and endure 3 changes in philosophy form OL coaches.  He's also played on bad teams with depleted weapons for at least 2 years.

You can look at him and see that he has all of the physical tools.  He can run outside, inside, and he's a solid receiver.  I think a year with eye-popping yardage and TD numbers would boost a case for a bigger payout.  

As for Zeke and McCaffery, I'd make the assertion that Gurley and Freeman (to a lesser extent due to more tread on the tires) have made that point already.  Gurley in a big way.  He was one of the faces of the league in 2018 and just got tossed on the scrap heap.  

The elephant in the room for me is what might happen if he doesn't get a deal this year and ends up getting slapped with the tag next year.  In that case, I would understand him getting a bit pissy.  That's a situation I'd like to see avoided.

The best case scenario IMO is to extend him this offseason, but not at an insane rate.  4 years/50 mil neighborhood is what I'd shoot for.   That's more than enough to set him up for life without killing the cap.  I'd be perfectly willing to cut bait with Gio to get this done.  Pay him now before he goes off this season and absolutely will try to demand a McCaffrey-esque deal.

(04-16-2020, 04:20 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Great post Samhain, yeah, just like Free Agency when it was the time to spend big so we can afford Burrow down the road
it is the time right now to spend on the likes of AJ and Mixon, more-so Mixon. More-so Mixon cause he is in his prime and 
should thrive in a Burrow ran Offense and would be impossible to pay later on if he lights up the league.

(04-16-2020, 04:30 PM)samhain Wrote: That's kind of how I feel about it.  I want Joe Mixon on the team for the next few years.  If they're going to have success under the new regime and Burrow, he should/deserves to be a part of it.  I suspect he's a big part of players not quitting last year even though they had a demoralizing season.

My sticking point is if he gets to the point where he's demanding a top RB deal.  He may very well be one, but between now and the start of 2021, the Bengals will have 2 drafts to decide whether or not to replace him with a younger, more affordable back.  If he shows his ass in the meantime, the decision gets easy for the team.  

(04-16-2020, 04:48 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: True, I think a big point here is Mixon is only making like 1.2 mil a year which is extremely cheap for a top RB in the NFL.

We can pay him enough to be happy without paying McCaffery money.

That way he wouldn't be impossible to sign later, we all see his talent. He hasn't had it easy here so far and still has put
up some damn good seasons behind sad Offensive Lines. And, I might add hasn't even been used right in the passing 
game. Need to use him as an extension of the run game in this capacity. Passing the ball to a good pass catching RB is
just as good as running the ball well if you are getting good yardage.

(04-16-2020, 04:57 PM)samhain Wrote: I'm all for him getting a nice raise.  He deserves one.  I just don't want to get too crazy with it.  If they're going to do it, they should do it this offseason.  He's probably young enough to be worth getting 12-14 mil a year and be worth it for the length of the deal.  Every year of wear matters, though.  I'm less excited about paying him next year or the year after if he gets the tag.