(06-19-2017, 10:32 AM)samhain Wrote: Dick Williams has done a nice job rebuilding this team.  Almost all of his trades have ended in the Reds favor, save the Chapman move which wasn't necessarily his fault.

That said, I think it's time for him to start looking at adding non-Feldman/Arroyo caliber starters this offseason.  Our young pitchers look to be vastly overrated by Reds fans.  None of Garrett, Reed, or Stephenson have looked capable of being a MLB starter in the near future.  If he wants to win in 2018 or possibly even 19, it's time to either package some prospects for a TOR arm, or sign one on the open market.  The cavalry doesn't look to be arriving from any internal source soon.

(06-20-2017, 12:13 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I agree that we should sell at the deadline.

However, what have Peraza and Hamilton done to make it on your untouchable list? If someone offered us a good deal for either of them, I'd cough them up immediately. The potential is high but god they are so incredibly frustrating when not hitting. And with as little power as they have, they are basically entirely reliant on consistently hitting singles to be worth their position in the line up. Considering both of them are hitting around .250, they just aren't cutting it as low power hitters. a .600 OPS is just absolutely dreadful and both of them have been around that number all year (and in their entire careers, really.)

Peraza is still young, so there's still hope for him, but Hamilton is turning 27 in a few months. He will cost a lot of money very soon and it'll be painful paying the price he'll receive for as little production as he provides.

I would love if we could trade Cozart and Feldman for anything of future value.

(06-20-2017, 10:25 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: They are both ascending players with long-term team control. I think Hamilton has shown A LOT of improvement since his rookie year. His defense is the best in the league and his base stealing is too. I don't think he'll ever be a .300 hitter, he just needs to work on taking more walks. As far as Peraza, he's basically a rookie, you need to lower your expectations some.

(06-20-2017, 10:53 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I'm not the one who put them on an untouchable list . I was just asking what about them makes them, in your eyes, untouchable. Like I said, they both have potential, but we haven't gotten anything out of either nor have we seen either fulfill any portion of that potential.

If another team became enamored with one of them and was offering a premium prospect in exchange, I don't see why we wouldn't do it.

And whether Hamilton has improved or not since his rookie year is debatable. In his rookie year, his line was .250/.292/.355/.647.

This year he is currently at .244/.296/.319/.615

In his rookie year, he struck out 117 times, walked 34 times and had a WAR of 2.6.

This year, he is on pace for 148 strikeouts and 47 walks and has a WAR of 0.1.

His walks have increased, but so have his strike outs.

And he's a flashy defender, but he is the 30th ranked CF in DWAR.

I won't deny that he's fun to watch, but I think the improvement you've seen is mainly due to bias.

(06-20-2017, 11:53 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: Why they are untouchable is because they are young, yes 27 is young in baseball, and the team has cheap control over them for several more years. Hamilton is struggling right now, but his 2nd and third years as a pro were incrementally better than his rookie year. I'd like to see him give up switch hitting and get more days off to prevent injuries. If we had an elite CF prospect waiting in the minors, I'd be more inclined to trade him, but we don't.

I think the team needs to start competing and retaining core players again. The only guys that should be on the trading block are guys that are FA's at the end of this year or are blocking top prospects from moving up from the minors, like Winker and Senzel.

(06-20-2017, 02:01 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: 27 is young for a guy like Votto who has the ability to hit the ball. Hamilton is 27 and his entire game is his speed. If you look at the stolen base numbers each year, there are basically no players over 30 in the top 10 for stolen bases. Brandon Phillips did it in 2015 but it's not very common otherwise.

I am all about optimism about our guys. But I just feel like Hamilton has been such a monumental disappointment on just about every level of his career, I would kind of love to see him moved before everyone else realizes how bad he is at swinging a bat.

I keep waiting for that Votto mentorship to kick in but it just hasn't. 

As for his other years...Well...calling them incrementally better than his rookie year is, again, debatable.

He took a step down in BA, OBP, Slugging and WAR in his sophomore year. Not unexpected. Sophomore slumps aren't uncommon. He did improve his base stealing, as he was caught way less (23 CS in rookie year vs 8 in sophomore year)

If we're honest, his only good year was last year in which he hit .260/.321/.343/.664

I know people were optimistic about him because they thought he'd build on those numbers and maybe reach .330 or .340 OBP this year.

He has not.

In fact, even his best year is still below average for a lead off hitter. In 2014, the average OBP for a leadoff hitter was .326. That was down from 2013, in which it was .329. Between 2009 and 2012, the average OBP for a lead off hitter was somewhere between .324 and .347.

So, Hamilton's career year is still below average. His career average is over 20 points below average (.297 career OBP).

And that doesn't even take into account his higher than average strikeout rate. In his career, he's only had one year where his K% was below 20%, 2015 when he was averaging .226.

Every other year, he's been between 20 and 24% K. The average between 2009 and 2014 for lead off hitters was between 15.5% and 17.3%

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/3/25/8124365/leadoff-hitters-the-book-declining-production

I keep trying to find statistics that would trend towards him improving, but the further I dig, the more damning things I find about him. I actually dislike him more after this discussion than I did before looking into all this haha.

(06-21-2017, 12:15 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Could our pitching woes be catcher related? I don't know much about the role of a catcher in implementing strategies. I have seen scenarios where pitchers look completely different depending on who their catchers is.

(06-21-2017, 12:15 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Could our pitching woes be catcher related? I don't know much about the role of a catcher in implementing strategies. I have seen scenarios where pitchers look completely different depending on who their catchers is.

(06-23-2017, 12:05 AM)kevin Wrote: our pitching is trade and injury related, which left the cupboard bare. 

Look up D stats and see who has best average on throwing out runners and you may be surprised to see in MLB it is Barnhart.  Barnhart gives Reds D up the middle when Cozart and Hamilton in line-up.  Sparky Anderson demanded D UP THE MIDDLE. ....Now I know Reds are paying Mesoraco a LOT, so he will play a LOT. Sorry about his injury, but so far, he stinks. Again, I'm sure struggling from injury and off a couple years. Pretty rusty. ....Still, Reds are benching one of the best defensive catchers in MLB if you look up the stats and numbers. 

I have to add, there are no Johnny Bench's out there or even a Bo Diaz or Joe Oliver and not one MLB catcher is putting up great D numbers.  This may be the worst era of defensive catchers in my lifetime going back to 1960's.  There are some catchers who can hit a little but even at that, nothing great.  Defensive numbers are just awful.  Hamilton could steal 100 bases on today's catchers, They Stink....Above all else you want D out of catcher and shortstop.  Today's catchers are lousy compared to all the good catchers over the years.  I can't point to one catcher this year and say he is a gold glove with a rifle arm. Not one.  Barnhart numbers say he is best D catcher in MLB in 2017.  Yet he will now mostly ride the bench with high paid Mesoraco back and batting .230 something....I know, I know, he has been injured.....Besides Bench there was Freehan and Grote and Hundley and Fisk and then came Sundberg and decades of top D catchers.  Now in 2017, what happened ?  Why no great defensive catchers ?

(06-24-2017, 12:40 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Nice debut for Castillo. We might finally have a pitching prospect on that pans out. He needs to limit those walks, but a 100 mph fastball with movement is a rookie pitcher's best friend.