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+--- Thread: AD better deep ball than u think (/thread-15438.html)
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - fredtoast - 04-25-2018
(04-24-2018, 09:51 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The bottom line is Kirkpatrick got 15 penalties and the average penalties for the corners was 5. He got 15 - 5 which or 10 above average. So to make the stop rate accurate you add 10 burns and 10 penalties worth of yards. Now calculate his ranking. It plummets to the bottom.
No it does not plummet to the bottom. Many of the CBs with just 5 penalties or less were playing half as many snaps as Dre.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - PhilHos - 04-25-2018
(04-24-2018, 06:56 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I use it because it is much more detailed than a one size fits all qb formula that puts a huge emphasis on the td and where the ball was thrown.
More detailed, sure. More subjective, definitely, which makes it MORE flawed.
Also the NFL QB rating places NO emphasis on where the ball was thrown.
(04-24-2018, 06:56 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: It breaks the windows down into several categories and that takes out a lot of its subjectivity.
Having "windows" is the very definition of subjectivity. Having windows makes it a LOT more subjective than the QB rating formula. You're putting more weight on a more flawed formula and shitting on a less flawed formula.
(04-24-2018, 06:56 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Never ever did I say it was a perfect formula. If I have to choose between two flawed formulas I'll choose the one that is less flawed.
If you're using brickwallblitz's formula, you absolutely are NOT using the less flawed one.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - PhilHos - 04-25-2018
(04-24-2018, 07:09 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The whole point is that the qb rating allows a throw to made at the 50 yard line for a td and get 158 rating. If the deep throw was made at the 51 yard line, for 50 yards, and the ball is at the 1 yard line, then the qb rating is a 80. The next play the team scores.What if the the team doesn't score at all? What if on the next play the RB fumbles on the 1 yard line? So a 50 yard TD pass should equal a 50 yard pass to the 1 where the other team gets the ball?
(04-24-2018, 07:09 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: This means a huge emphasis is made on where the ball is thrown.No, it doesn't. A 50 yard pass that doesn't lead to a TD counts the same whether the pass was thrown in the end zone or at midfield.
(04-24-2018, 07:09 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Of course the whole point is to score points but that shouldn't be part of whether it was a good accurate throw or not .It's not. The QB rating doesn't tell you whether a throw was accurate or not.
(04-24-2018, 07:09 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Green might not be the ONLY wide receiver Dalton throws to, but he catches around 70% of all of the deep throws , so he makes up a LARGE PART of any deep throws Daltons completes. He definitely makes top 5 in most acrobatic catches and probably the most acrobatic catches in the whole league.Then you aren't watching the rest of the league.
(04-24-2018, 07:09 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: I think as a whole the qb rating is ok as far as accuracy, it is when it used for specific throwing lengths, like throws over 30 yards, that it becomes inaccurate and should not be used.
The QB rating should never be used to determine a QB's accuracy. It's used to determing how effective a QB is. But even so, it shouldn't really be used by itself. It should be used in conjunction with other objective stats.
(04-24-2018, 07:09 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The only fair analysis would be to first calculate completion % for all 32 qb starting in 2011 up until now , then adjust for offensive line ranking.
Say a qb ranked 12 in completion % on throws over 30 yards, and the offensive line ranked 8 , then the qb ranking should be adjusted backwards by say 8 spots because the offensive line is 8 spots better than average. The adjusted ranking would be 20 for the qb. This at least takes out any bias of the qb having a better offensive line than other qb's.
I would make the same adjustment for receivers the qb has to throw the ball to, then add up all the rankings and get an average ranking for the qb.
What OBJECTIVE source would you use to rank the OL or the WRs?
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - wolverine515151 - 04-26-2018
(04-25-2018, 12:02 PM)PhilHos Wrote: What if the the team doesn't score at all? What if on the next play the RB fumbles on the 1 yard line? So a 50 yard TD pass should equal a 50 yard pass to the 1 where the other team scores?
No, it doesn't. A 50 yard pass that doesn't lead to a TD counts the same whether the pass was thrown in the end zone or at midfield.
It's not. The QB rating doesn't tell you whether a throw was accurate or not.
Then you aren't watching the rest of the league.
The QB rating should never be used to determine a QB's accuracy. It's used to determing how effective a QB is. But even so, it shouldn't really be used by itself. It should be used in conjunction with other objective stats.
What OBJECTIVE source would you use to rank the OL or the WRs?
It does't matter if it scores or not, the only thing that should matter is the quality of the throw. Of course it means it is dependent on where it was thrown. Two exact same throws, one at the 51 and the other at the 50 result in two vastly different ratings.
The fact is both throws went for the EXACT SAME DISTANCE and therefor should considered to be equally effective. Whether one scores or not is totally dependent on where it was thrown.
Furthermore, the chances of scoring 1st and 10 on the 1 yard line is almost 99% so why even debate a extremely unlikely event happening like fumbling it on the 1.
The only time a difference should be made is a throw less than 20 yards inside or outside of the red zone. The td when thrown inside the 20 that scores a td is much more effective than a throw outside the 20 because inside the red zone the defense compresses and outside the red zone it doesn't compress. In the case of two balls launched deep from near midfield there is no difference in the defense .
The fact is Green is the best deep threat in the league and has a huge impact on Daltons qb rating and ability to complete a pass deep. Since he throws 70% of his deep throws to Green he has a huge impact on his ability to complete the throw.
Watching the rest of the league is not important at all, we're not talking about the other wide receivers, we're talking about strictly Greens impact on Daltons ability to complete a deep pass. What the rest of the leagues wide receivers impact has on other qb's doesn't matter at all in determining Daltons ability to complete a deep pass.
It would have to be determined how to rate the offensive line and the wide receivers. You could start by using footballoutsiders offensive line rankings. As far as ranking the wide receivers you would have to study every deep threat and determine how many times he got open, how many times he made a huge adjustment to a bad throw, and how many times he scored a td by having to run a certain amount of yards after the catch.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - wolverine515151 - 04-26-2018
(04-25-2018, 11:53 AM)PhilHos Wrote: More detailed, sure. More subjective, definitely, which makes it MORE flawed.
Also the NFL QB rating places NO emphasis on where the ball was thrown.
Having "windows" is the very definition of subjectivity. Having windows makes it a LOT more subjective than the QB rating formula. You're putting more weight on a more flawed formula and shitting on a less flawed formula.
If you're using brickwallblitz's formula, you absolutely are NOT using the less flawed one.
If it is subjective it isn't as blatant as you are making it look. Each throw is judged by how open a receiver is. This is broken into several categories of how open they are such as, wide open, very open open, open, slightly open, blanketed.
It isn't like the guy is judging whether a player is open or not hes merely judging where he fits into these categories. The only subjectivity would be to determine the difference between say slightly open to blanketed, not as blatantly subjective like whether he is open or not open. It is much more fine tuned than that primitive approach you are suggesting.
It isn't as subjective as the qb rating, which allows a qb to complete only 18% of his throws and score over a 100 rating. That is much more flawed and no way can you say a 18% completion percentage is a very effective qb on deep throws just because he throws a couple td's.
Lets set up an example to show you how the qb rating does not show how effective a qb rating is. Lets assume a team drives the ball 8 times a game. Lets assume that on every third down at midfield the qb launches a deep throw.
Now Dalton completed 3 out of 16 deep throws and scored a 106 rating. That means, in two games , if he launched a deep throw at midfield, on third down, in two games, it would have scored say 2 tds and a field goal. That's 17 points or 8.5 points per game. So how effective is that 106 rating now when it only results in 8.5 points per game.
The rating would be 106 yet its effectiveness produced 8.5 points per game in the two games. So the fact is this qb rating is not good for showing how EFFECTIVE the qb is on deep throws. Using that deep ball strategy it EFFECTIVELY would have lost us the games.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - wolverine515151 - 04-26-2018
(04-25-2018, 08:24 AM)fredtoast Wrote: No it does not plummet to the bottom. Many of the CBs with just 5 penalties or less were playing half as many snaps as Dre.
The league has nickel packages 70% of the time therefor around 3 corners per play and 3 x 32 or 96 starting corners. The top 100 corners would only include mainly starters. Approximately 96 / 100 or 96% of the top 100 corners would be playing significant snaps.
The fact is the starting corners that are ranked probably averaged much less than 5 penalties , Hall got 1 penalty and Jones 4 penalties, so I actually gave Kirkpatrick a very generous advantage by only saying the average amount of penalties was 5.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - wolverine515151 - 04-26-2018
(04-24-2018, 10:40 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I don't see how that's not fair. A 51 yard TD is better than a 50 yard completion, and the difference between 158 and 119 seems like a fair difference.
Either way, this argument (of Wolverine's) loses merit when I was using 7 seasons worth of data and over 150 attempts. The QB rating formula can look a little whacky when you use it for one play, but it all evens out when you're looking at so many attempts.
How do you know it evens out, there is no proof of it evening out, some qb's could have a tendency to launch it deep near field more than others and therefor much more likely to score a td on a deep ball.
The fact is only about 5% of a qb's throw are over 30 yards , which equates to about 20 throws a season for Dalton. Even 7 seasons worth of Daltons deep throws is 140 throws, which is about a quarter of a season worth of throws.
Even when assuming qb's all have a tenancy to launch a deep throw from the same part of the field on average, which hasn't been proven to be true one way or the other, in statistics things don't even out until you have much more data than that.
It also still doesn't take into account whether the td was scored because the wide receiver made a nice move after the catch and scored,it doesnt take into account if a bad ball was caught by a spectacular catch, it doesn't take into account how much pressure the qb was facing on the throw, it doesn't take hardly anything into account which is why it shouldn't be used to determine how good a qb is at throwing the deep ball.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - fredtoast - 04-26-2018
(04-26-2018, 12:16 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The fact is the starting corners that are ranked probably averaged much less than 5 penalties , Hall got 1 penalty and Jones 4 penalties, so I actually gave Kirkpatrick a very generous advantage by only saying the average amount of penalties was 5.
You have no idea what the average "penalty per snap" is for CBs. You just made up a number out of thin air.
Also it does not matter becuase penalties are already counted as "failures" with stats like "Success rate".
And finally Dres ranking would not drop that much because most of the other top corners also hade more penalties than average.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - fredtoast - 04-26-2018
(04-26-2018, 12:09 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: If it is subjective it isn't as blatant as you are making it look. Each throw is judged by how open a receiver is. This is broken into several categories of how open they are such as, wide open, very open open, open, slightly open, blanketed.
It isn't like the guy is judging whether a player is open or not hes merely judging where he fits into these categories. The only subjectivity would be to determine the difference between say slightly open to blanketed, not as blatantly subjective like whether he is open or not open. It is much more fine tuned than that primitive approach you are suggesting.
This is VERY subjective because you can not tell me what the difference is between "wide open" and "very open". And what possible difference could it make to the QBs throw if a receiver is "wide open" or "very open"? Wouldn't he make the exact same throw no matter how well the receiver is covered?
(04-26-2018, 12:09 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: It isn't as subjective as the qb rating, which allows a qb to complete only 18% of his throws and score over a 100 rating. That is much more flawed and no way can you say a 18% completion percentage is a very effective qb on deep throws just because he throws a couple td's.
Again you are just complaining about the formula without offering a better one that relies on objective stats.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - fredtoast - 04-26-2018
(04-26-2018, 12:01 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The fact is Green is the best deep threat in the league
Watching the rest of the league is not important at all, we're not talking about the other wide receivers, we're talking about strictly Greens impact on Daltons ability to complete a deep pass. What the rest of the leagues wide receivers impact has on other qb's doesn't matter at all in determining Daltons ability to complete a deep pass.
1. Green is not the best deep threat in the league.
2. If you are going to rank all of the QBs based on how much their WR helps them then you have to measure the impact of all WRs on all QBs.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - PhilHos - 04-26-2018
(04-26-2018, 12:01 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: It does't matter if it scores or not, the only thing that should matter is the quality of the throw.
So, the QB's job is NOT to score points but rather just make quality throws?
This should be the point where I stop talking to you, but I'm bored so ...(04-26-2018, 12:01 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Of course it means it is dependent on where it was thrown. Two exact same throws, one at the 51 and the other at the 50 result in two vastly different ratings.
No, it's NOT. The only reason for the difference in the rating is because of the TD! A 50 yard pass thrown at the 1 gets the exact same QB rating as a 50 yard pass thrown at the 5, the 10, the 20, the 30, the 40 etc.
(04-26-2018, 12:01 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The fact is both throws went for the EXACT SAME DISTANCE and therefor should considered to be equally effective. Whether one scores or not is totally dependent on where it was thrown.Except they weren't equally effective! How are you not getting this? A 50 yard pass that doesn't end in a TD is not the same as a 50 yard TD pass. It doesn't matter if the 50 yard pass leads to a 1 yard TD. There have been many times a defense has prevented an offense from scoring from the 1 yard line. Ergo, if the pass ends in a TD, it's worth more and SHOULD be worth more.
(04-26-2018, 12:01 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Furthermore, the chances of scoring 1st and 10 on the 1 yard line is almost 99% so why even debate a extremely unlikely event happening like fumbling it on the 1.It doesn't matter the likelihood. The fact is it gives the defense a chance to stop it. Not to mention that if the RB runs it in for a TD, why should the QB get credit for that?
(04-26-2018, 12:01 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: The only time a difference should be made is a throw less than 20 yards inside or outside of the red zone. The td when thrown inside the 20 that scores a td is much more effective than a throw outside the 20 because inside the red zone the defense compresses and outside the red zone it doesn't compress. In the case of two balls launched deep from near midfield there is no difference in the defense .Yes, because launching 50 yard passes are sooooooooooooooo easy. All you see game in and game out are 50 yard passes.
wolverine515151 Wrote:The fact is Green is the best deep threat in the league and has a huge impact on Daltons qb rating and ability to complete a pass deep. Since he throws 70% of his deep throws to Green he has a huge impact on his ability to complete the throw.
Quote:Watching the rest of the league is not important at all, we're not talking about the other wide receivers, we're talking about strictly Greens impact on Daltons ability to complete a deep pass. What the rest of the leagues wide receivers impact has on other qb's doesn't matter at all in determining Daltons ability to complete a deep pass.
I get the feeling this was supposed to be a response to someone else so I'm going to give you a break and not respond to it.
wolverine515151 Wrote:It would have to be determined how to rate the offensive line and the wide receivers. You could start by using footballoutsiders offensive line rankings. As far as ranking the wide receivers you would have to study every deep threat and determine how many times he got open, how many times he made a huge adjustment to a bad throw, and how many times he scored a td by having to run a certain amount of yards after the catch.
I said "objective". These are all subjective.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - PhilHos - 04-26-2018
(04-26-2018, 12:09 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: If it is subjective it isn't as blatant as you are making it look. Each throw is judged by how open a receiver is. This is broken into several categories of how open they are such as, wide open, very open open, open, slightly open, blanketed.It doesn't matter if it's blatant or not. The fact that it's subjective makes it a seriously flawed standard of measurement. The QB rating formula, while flawed, is at least based solely on objective data and is applied the same to every QB.
It isn't like the guy is judging whether a player is open or not hes merely judging where he fits into these categories. The only subjectivity would be to determine the difference between say slightly open to blanketed, not as blatantly subjective like whether he is open or not open. It is much more fine tuned than that primitive approach you are suggesting.
(04-26-2018, 12:09 AM)wolverine515151 Wrote: It isn't as subjective as the qb rating, which allows a qb to complete only 18% of his throws and score over a 100 rating. That is much more flawed and no way can you say a 18% completion percentage is a very effective qb on deep throws just because he throws a couple td's.
The QB rating isn't subjective. You need to learn the difference between subjective and objective if you can't see that.
As to your 18% point, you forget that the QB rating formula also takes into account yards and TDs. So, the bare minimum a QB needs to get 100 rating with 18% completion % is 550 yards and 4 TDs.
wolverine515151 Wrote:Lets set up an example to show you how the qb rating does not show how effective a qb rating is. Lets assume a team drives the ball 8 times a game. Lets assume that on every third down at midfield the qb launches a deep throw.I literally couldn't understand any of this. This makes absolutely no sense.
Now Dalton completed 3 out of 16 deep throws and scored a 106 rating. That means, in two games , if he launched a deep throw at midfield, on third down, in two games, it would have scored say 2 tds and a field goal. That's 17 points or 8.5 points per game. So how effective is that 106 rating now when it only results in 8.5 points per game.
The rating would be 106 yet its effectiveness produced 8.5 points per game in the two games. So the fact is this qb rating is not good for showing how EFFECTIVE the qb is on deep throws. Using that deep ball strategy it EFFECTIVELY would have lost us the games.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - wolverine515151 - 05-03-2018
(04-26-2018, 01:08 PM)PhilHos Wrote: It doesn't matter if it's blatant or not. The fact that it's subjective makes it a seriously flawed standard of measurement. The QB rating formula, while flawed, is at least based solely on objective data and is applied the same to every QB.
The QB rating isn't subjective. You need to learn the difference between subjective and objective if you can't see that.
As to your 18% point, you forget that the QB rating formula also takes into account yards and TDs. So, the bare minimum a QB needs to get 100 rating with 18% completion % is 550 yards and 4 TDs.
I literally couldn't understand any of this. This makes absolutely no sense.
You're the one who doesn't understand subjective or objective. When the qb rating is constructed it put a weight on the td, that is subjective, not objective. That weight is based on what some human thinks should be the weight. Any time a human comes up with something like a weight on something then that is the definition of subjective.
Who cares if it is applied the same to every qb. A flawed rating applied to everyone produces a flawed result. They could have put a billion points weight on the td and even someone like you would see how subjective that weight would be.
Its very simple to understand. I'll dumb it down for you to understand. If a team has 8 drives per game and launches a deep ball every time they get to midfield, they would connect on exactly 1 out of 8 for a td. 16 /2 is 8, in case you haven't taken elementary school math.
The other completion would not produce a td so I gave it a field goal. That means 17 points in two games or 8.5 a game.
This shows that it is not effective to launch a deep ball from midfield with that low of a connection rate and it will produce very few points using that strategy. It is very ineffective at producing points when it still got a 106 rating. So no it does not measure effectiveness.
This is a scenario that is not unlikely because third down is the most likely passing down, out of all the downs in football, and I'm giving the offense an optimum advantage of throwing that deep ball from midfield, which isn't always the case. Some throws might be not thrown from midfield, but even with ideal conditions for the offense it still doesn't produce many points and yet gets a very high rating.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - wolverine515151 - 05-03-2018
(04-26-2018, 12:36 PM)PhilHos Wrote: So, the QB's job is NOT to score points but rather just make quality throws?What does how easy to complete a deep throw have to do with anything. Who cares how easy it is or it isn't. What does that even have to do with anything. What an utter nonsensical comment.
No, it's NOT. The only reason for the difference in the rating is because of the TD! A 50 yard pass thrown at the 1 gets the exact same QB rating as a 50 yard pass thrown at the 5, the 10, the 20, the 30, the 40 etc.
Except they weren't equally effective! How are you not getting this? A 50 yard pass that doesn't end in a TD is not the same as a 50 yard TD pass. It doesn't matter if the 50 yard pass leads to a 1 yard TD. There have been many times a defense has prevented an offense from scoring from the 1 yard line. Ergo, if the pass ends in a TD, it's worth more and SHOULD be worth more.
It doesn't matter the likelihood. The fact is it gives the defense a chance to stop it. Not to mention that if the RB runs it in for a TD, why should the QB get credit for that?
Yes, because launching 50 yard passes are sooooooooooooooo easy. All you see game in and game out are 50 yard passes.
I get the feeling this was supposed to be a response to someone else so I'm going to give you a break and not respond to it.
I said "objective". These are all subjective.
The point is simple , two throws same distance 50 yards. One is thrown in front of the other by a yard so it gets a 40 point rating boost. How can you not see that. One in one hundred times a team will not score from the one yard line with a fresh set of downs.
Now have these two plays happen 100 times.
Throw A 158 qb rating produces 7 points each time
Throw B 118 rating produces 6.9 points each time
The difference in points scored is 0.1 points yet the rating difference is 40 points!!!! How can you not see something so blatantly obvious is beyond me.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - wolverine515151 - 05-03-2018
AJ Green will be a first ballot hall of famer whose strengths are getting open deep and making circus catches. How many qb's in the league have a number one wide receiver, the last 7 years, that is going to be a first ballot hall of famer, and whose strengths are getting open deep and making circus catches.? I know the answer. Not Many!
AJ Green will probably play another 10 years with his conditioning programs and off field exercising. He'll put up probably another 10K yards; that'll be 18K yards and probably 150 td's, yet you seem to think every qb has a wide receiver in the league to throw the ball to deep who is that good.
For you to discount how valuable a wide receiver AJ green is to Daltons success is pure lunacy.
Furthermore, the qb rating should measure how good a qb is at making deep throws. If you want to go by effectiveness then what if he launched a deep throw every play of the game while completing less than 1 in 5 passes. Lets see how that goes.
Average starting field position would be say 25 yard line. Average deep throw connection is 40 yards.
MISS MISS MISS PUNT
MISS CONNECT MISS MISS MISS PUNT
MISS CONNECT MISS MISS MISS PUNT
MISS CONNECT MISS MISS MISS PUNT
MISS CONNECT MISS MISS MISS PUNT
MISS CONNECT MISS MISS MISS PUNT
MISS CONNECT MISS MISS MISS PUNT
MISS CONNECT MISS MISS MISS PUNT
MISS CONNECT MISS MISS MISS PUNT
MISS CONNECT MISS MISS MISS PUNT
You would be lucky to score any points at all. If you get lucky you might hit two in a row for a TD. That might happen once every couple games. You'd be averaging probably 3 points a game if you launched a deep throw with that connection percentage, yet you have the audacity to claim it is effective to throw 3 for 16 because two of those throws were for td's.
You probably believe the earth is flat . I believe it's round because we have satellite images that show it's round. You probably saw wood with a hammer, I saw wood with a skill saw. You can keep believing your fiction and I'll keep believing in the truth!
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - wolverine515151 - 05-03-2018
(04-26-2018, 08:05 AM)fredtoast Wrote: You have no idea what the average "penalty per snap" is for CBs. You just made up a number out of thin air.
Also it does not matter becuase penalties are already counted as "failures" with stats like "Success rate".
And finally Dres ranking would not drop that much because most of the other top corners also hade more penalties than average.
You have to be kidding to think that the average corner got more than 5 penalties. The more likely average is 3 penalties. Even guys like Sherman and Talib only got 7 or 8 penalties.
It says it only includes pass interference by the ball. What if the pass interference happened when it was not by the ball and gave the other team a fresh set of downs.
For example a couple years ago we were playing the Patriots. It was the second half of the game and we were leading. They were 3rd and 20 from deep in there side of the field. Kirkpatrick was hand jostling with the defender at around the 7 yard line and a pass interference was called away from the ball. It wouldn't have counted towards the success rate yet it wiped out 3rd and 20! The patriots proceeded to score on that drive and the route was on. We lost that game because of that crucial penalty.
Ill bet a a lot more interference penalties Kirkpatrick got were away from the ball than by the ball. The critical thing about a pass interference is that it gives the other team a fresh set of downs. It wipes out situations like this where we have the patriots pinned deep, have them right where we want them, and a critical 5 yard pass interference away from the ball wipes out the downs and gives them another chance to put up points.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - wolverine515151 - 05-03-2018
(04-26-2018, 08:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: 1. Green is not the best deep threat in the league.
2. If you are going to rank all of the QBs based on how much their WR helps them then you have to measure the impact of all WRs on all QBs.
First ballot hall of famer whose strengths are getting open deep and making circus catches, keep believing your fiction and I'll keep believing the truth.
You probably think every qb in the league has a first ballot hall of famer at his disposal to throw deep to. That is utter nonsense. Look to see how many qb's have had first ballot hall of famers to throw to in the last 7 years. I can think of one, Jones, and he isn't as good as AJ Green on deep balls and making circus catches .
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - wolverine515151 - 05-03-2018
(04-26-2018, 08:19 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This is VERY subjective because you can not tell me what the difference is between "wide open" and "very open". And what possible difference could it make to the QBs throw if a receiver is "wide open" or "very open"? Wouldn't he make the exact same throw no matter how well the receiver is covered?
Again you are just complaining about the formula without offering a better one that relies on objective stats.
I sure can tell you the difference; I would stop the film right before the ball arrives and measure the distance between the defender and the wide receiver. You could even use some kind of software to measure precisely. I'm sure even something as primitive as a ruler would give very good accuracy.
I'm certain that when this guy did his calculation he put small differences in calculation when it was wide open or very open. He probably gave a slightly lower rating if the qb completed a deep ball to someone wide open as opposed to very open. Even if he said it was wide open as opposed to very open the difference in points would be very small and would not effect the overall grades he assigns.
The main point is that a huge difference would be calculated if the wide receiver was wide open as opposed to blanketed. A throw made to a wide open receiver is way easier than completing a ball where you have a few inches of error to make the throw.
He would probably put more air under it if the receiver was closer to the wide receiver, as opposed to farther away, to keep it away from the defender. This would mean more touch and accuracy is needed. Furthermore, even if he made the same throw both times, an inaccurate throw to an open wide receiver would most likely be a completion while to a tightly covered wide receiver an in completion.
I gave a sketch of what kind of formula I would use. I have stated it very clearly. I'd calculate the the qb's completion % for all throws over 30 yards and rank them every year for the pass 7 years. Then I would adjust for offensive line and weapons.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - PhilHos - 05-03-2018
(05-03-2018, 04:26 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: You're the one who doesn't understand subjective or objective.
What're you, 5?
(05-03-2018, 04:26 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: When the qb rating is constructed it put a weight on the td, that is subjective, not objective. That weight is based on what some human thinks should be the weight. You are the one who doesn't understand the difference between objective and subjective. Any time a human comes up with something like a weight on something then that is the definition of subjective.
First off, no.
The QB forumla counts completions per attempt, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt and INTs per attempt. Each of those has a separate calculation which are then compiled into a larger formula. Each calculation can only have a maximum value of 2.375. The TD portion can only have a maximum value of 2.375. The yards per attempt portion can only have a maximum value of 2.375. Ergo, no, the QB rating formula does NOT put a weight on TDs or on ANY of the other elements of the formula.
(05-03-2018, 04:26 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: You don't understand it because your comprehension skills are low. Its very simple to understand. I'll dumb it down for you to understand. If a team has 8 drives per game and launches a deep ball every time they get to midfield, they would connect on exactly 1 out of 8 for a td. 16 /2 is 8, in case you haven't taken elementary school math.
The other completion would be not for a td so I gave it a field goal. That means 17 points in two games or 8.5 a game.
This shows that it is not effective to launch a deep ball from midfield with that low of a connection rate and it will produce very few points using that strategy. So it is very ineffective at producing points when it still got a 106 rating. So no it does not measure effectiveness.
The reason I didn't understand has nothing to do with my comprehension skills. It's because your scenario makes no sense. Show me 1 game in all of NFL history where 1 of the teams launched a deep ball every time they got to midfield. You can't so your scenario is a nonsensical one and has no bearing on the discussion.
RE: AD better deep ball than u think - PhilHos - 05-03-2018
(05-03-2018, 04:39 PM)wolverine515151 Wrote: Why do you keep bringing up effective. The point is simple , two throws same distance 50 yards.
The point IS simple, but I'm not the one missing it. 2 throws, same distance. 1 results in a TD, 1 doesn't. The one that scores points is more effective because it led directly to a score, ergo, it's "worth" more.
Why you can't grasp that simple point is beyond me.
EDIT: even more mind-numbing is why you think they should be worth the same.