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Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - TheLeonardLeap - 09-04-2018

It seems year after year, the Bengals find ways to front-load deals so they can get close to the cap, while the good teams are finding ways to manage the cap so that they can stuff as much talent onto their team as possible.

Turns out, it's true.


Bengals are 24th on that list with a Total AAV of $160.4m.

Of the 10 Playoff teams in 2017, 5 of them were in the Top 10. The Steelers were 11th and Falcons 13th, so 7 in the top 13. Neither of the two 9-7 AFC Wildcard teams were in the Top 10.

It seems the good teams just find a way to work the cap space so that they can stuff the most talented players onto a team. It probably comes from having a professional GM and FO.

Keep in mind that the 2017 salary cap was set at $167m, and the Super Bowl winning Eagles had an AAV of $201.3m last year. The AFC winning Patriots had an AAV of $191m.


If you look at the NFC and AFC Championship games, of the 4 teams playing in it (Eagles, Vikings, Patriots, Jaguars) that is 3 of the Top 4 teams on that list. The Vikings were the outlier at 17th, and they got absolutely crushed by the Eagles (the Vikings are now 2nd in 2018 with $209.3m).

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - GreenCornBengal - 09-04-2018

It's an interesting theory and thank you for providing the data, however, I'm skeptical. I think teams will fluctuate dependent on the year and how their contracts are designed.

The Patriots are an interesting example of this:

2012: rank 15
2013: rank 26
2014: rank 20
2015: rank 25
2016: rank 29
2017: rank 4
2018: rank 16


IMO It's not the size (amount) that matters, it's how you use it.

I think longevity is an important piece of this as well. How long will the Eagles and Jaguars be good?

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - fredtoast - 09-04-2018

Have to use 2017 salary numbers if you are going to compare 2017 production.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/aav/2017/

Based on AAV playoff teams seemed to be close to randomly distributed. Only 5 of top 10 teams in AAV made the playoffs. Only 7 of 12 playoff teams were in the top half of the league in AAV along with the Bengals (16th). Vikes, Rams, Titans, Saints, and Bills all made playoffs with AAV in the bottom half of the league.

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - TheLeonardLeap - 09-04-2018

(09-04-2018, 02:40 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: It's an interesting theory and thank you for providing the data, however, I'm skeptical. I think teams will fluctuate dependent on the year and how their contracts are designed.

The Patriots are an interesting example of this:

2012: rank 15
2013: rank 26
2014: rank 20
2015: rank 25
2016: rank 29
2017: rank 4
2018: rank 16


IMO It's not the size (amount) that matters, it's how you use it.

I think longevity is an important piece of this as well. How long will the Eagles and Jaguars be good?

I think the Patriots are a bit of an outlier when all things are considered seeing as how Tom Brady is arguably the best QB in NFL history, but is currently only being paid as the 22nd highest on average ($15m/yr, 1/2 of Matt Ryan's $30m/yr and less than 1/2 of Rodger's $33.5m/yr).


Not everyone can get an all-time great QB who has a obscenely rich supermodel wife, so he feels comfortable taking less. Lol

If they had to pay him like a Manning/Rodgers/Brees during that timeframe, they would be much higher up there.


I think longevity is overrated if you won a SB. I don't think the Eagles will be heartbroken if going all-in and winning a SB in 2017 means they will have a rough year or two in 2019 or 2020.

The Bengals had longevity when they went to the postseason 5 straight years.

1-2 years of greatness > half a decade of mediocrity


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(09-04-2018, 02:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Have to use 2017 salary numbers if you are going to compare 2017 production.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/aav/2017/

Based on AAV playoff teams seemed to be close to randomly distributed.  Only 5 of top 10 teams in AAV made the playoffs.  Only 7 of 12 playoff teams were in the top half of the league in AAV along with the Bengals (16th).  Vikes, Rams, Titans, Saints, and Bills all made playoffs with AAV in the bottom half of the league.

I did use 2017 salary numbers. You are REALLY terrible at reading people's posts before replying, Fred.
Quote:Keep in mind that the 2017 salary cap was set at $167m, and the Super Bowl winning Eagles had an AAV of $201.3m last year. The AFC winning Patriots had an AAV of $191m.
The use of the 2018 Bengals numbers was as a possible predictor of the future of the 2018 Bengals season.

"Only" 5 of the top 10, but 3 of the top 4 in AAV were 3 of the 4 teams in the Conference Championship Games. That's not randomly distributed at all. The best teams last year stuffed in the most talent with their cap management. Sure the Vikings also made the NFC Championship game with the 17th ranked AAV, but lost 38-7 to the #1 AAV team.

Nice job ignoring the bit about 7 (53.8%) of the top 13 making the playoffs. As in only 5 (26.3%) out of the remaining 19 made it.

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - Luvnit2 - 09-04-2018

I am not sure what the OP is trying saying, it seems he is saying 50% of playoff teams spent bear the op and 50% did not.


I do know the top ranked QB in the NFL the past 10 years has resided in New England, yet he chooses to take a salary equal to 40 to 50% of his worth. He think he makes around 17 million a year, but could command 35 million a year. That sure helps cap management and to field a great team in my humble opinion.


I see with my eyes and I think the Bengals have kept or tried to keep the key players to win. I see them roll over money every year keeping it in the pool while other teams do not. I think our FO has done well the past 10 years managing it.

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - fredtoast - 09-04-2018

(09-04-2018, 03:18 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I did use 2017 salary numbers. You are REALLY terrible at reading people's posts before replying, Fred.

No I am not.  This is the first mention you make of the rankings


(09-04-2018, 02:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bengals are 24th on that list with a Total AAV of $160.4m.


Then you go straight into talking about where the 2017 playoff teams rank.

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - fredtoast - 09-04-2018

(09-04-2018, 03:18 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: "Only" 5 of the top 10, but 3 of the top 4 in AAV were 3 of the 4 teams in the Conference Championship Games. That's not randomly distributed at all.

Yes it is random.  

In 2016 three of the top four AAV teams had LOSING RECORDS.

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - sandwedge - 09-04-2018

I could swear I just read an article from Hobby, that the Bengals have spent close to 200 Mil this year and are 10th in the league spending this year.

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - bengals67 - 09-04-2018

Bengal management made many positive moves this year that seem completely different in creativity and vision that any other time I can remember.

My only complaint is that Marv should have been fired.

Criticism of management this year is otherwise not justified in my opinion.

If Fisher and Og had worked out we would have had a very strong roster this season. Missing on those draft picks set us back a couple of years.

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - Go Cards - 09-04-2018

Think we can all agree however that what MB has done has not really worked as far as Playoffs are concerned.

Did a lot of unlike Bengals moves this offseason though and hopefully it reverses our playoff fortunes soon and pays dividends.

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - TheLeonardLeap - 09-04-2018

(09-04-2018, 03:47 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I could swear I just read an article from Hobby, that the Bengals have spent close to 200 Mil this year and are 10th in the league spending this year.

Hobson is counting signing bonuses and the like, which all have to be paid upfront, and is much more impressive sounding when you have just signed a couple big guys to extensions. For example... Atkins counts as $16.3m/yr in the AAV list, but since he just signed and got his signing bonus and such, he counts as $25.5m in "cash" spending.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cash/
That should be it, though Hobspin's article was likely originally written before the Beckham/Donald/Mack contracts. Also if the Bengals gave Dunlap a signing bonus, it hasn't shown up yet (Atkins is) and the Bengals are currently put at 20th on that list.

Hobspin also has his own reality that he lives in/writes about. It's the same one the Reds live in where they have a "winning culture" and "positive momentum".





(09-04-2018, 04:43 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Think we cam all agree that however MB has done it has not really worked as far as Playoffs are concerned.

Did a lot of unlike Bengals moves this offseason though and hopefully it reverses our playoff fortunes soon.

The most Bengals move that will guarantee no playoff fortune reversal:

[Image: marvin-lewis.jpg]

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - Essex Johnson - 09-04-2018

(09-04-2018, 02:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It seems year after year, the Bengals find ways to front-load deals so they can get close to the cap, while the good teams are finding ways to manage the cap so that they can stuff as much talent onto their team as possible.

Turns out, it's true.


Bengals are 24th on that list with a Total AAV of $160.4m.

Of the 10 Playoff teams in 2017, 5 of them were in the Top 10. The Steelers were 11th and Falcons 13th, so 7 in the top 13. Neither of the two 9-7 AFC Wildcard teams were in the Top 10.

It seems the good teams just find a way to work the cap space so that they can stuff the most talented players onto a team. It probably comes from having a professional GM and FO.

Keep in mind that the 2017 salary cap was set at $167m, and the Super Bowl winning Eagles had an AAV of $201.3m last year. The AFC winning Patriots had an AAV of $191m.


If you look at the NFC and AFC Championship games, of the 4 teams playing in it (Eagles, Vikings, Patriots, Jaguars) that is 3 of the Top 4 teams on that list. The Vikings were the outlier at 17th, and they got absolutely crushed by the Eagles (the Vikings are now 2nd in 2018 with $209.3m).

coming from my experience in a profession that is driven by data i tend to ignore limited data cycles.. give me a good 5 to 10 years of data that supports your thesis... not saying it might not be a strong thesis but just not enough data to support it.

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - Whatever - 09-04-2018

(09-04-2018, 02:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It seems year after year, the Bengals find ways to front-load deals so they can get close to the cap, while the good teams are finding ways to manage the cap so that they can stuff as much talent onto their team as possible.

Turns out, it's true.


Bengals are 24th on that list with a Total AAV of $160.4m.

Of the 10 Playoff teams in 2017, 5 of them were in the Top 10. The Steelers were 11th and Falcons 13th, so 7 in the top 13. Neither of the two 9-7 AFC Wildcard teams were in the Top 10.

It seems the good teams just find a way to work the cap space so that they can stuff the most talented players onto a team. It probably comes from having a professional GM and FO.

Keep in mind that the 2017 salary cap was set at $167m, and the Super Bowl winning Eagles had an AAV of $201.3m last year. The AFC winning Patriots had an AAV of $191m.


If you look at the NFC and AFC Championship games, of the 4 teams playing in it (Eagles, Vikings, Patriots, Jaguars) that is 3 of the Top 4 teams on that list. The Vikings were the outlier at 17th, and they got absolutely crushed by the Eagles (the Vikings are now 2nd in 2018 with $209.3m).

The Bengals were 7th in '15, 6th in '14, and 8th in '13.  They were also 11th in '16 and 16th last year.  Teams seem to cycle in and out of the top ten, which makes sense.  You push money off into the future to keep your cap down, then it catches up with you, so you have to clear cap space with a youth movement.

The Bengals are going to be down the list this year.  We're the youngest team in the league.  That means a lot of guys on rookie deals.  If you look at our offense, the only guys not on their rookie deals are Andy, Giovanni, AJ, Glenn, Boling, Hart, and Eifert.  It makes sense to front load deals this year to clear space in future years.  

RE: Creativity With The Cap = Winning? - I_C_DeadPeople - 09-04-2018

Was listening to a NHL GM talking today on the radio and he said something very wise "If your league has a hard cap (NHL, NFL not NBA or MLB) than the cap becomes an 'efficiency rating' - you have to maximize each dollar with value and the more value you get for the dollar the more efficient you are and thus the better team you can be.