(12-27-2018, 06:27 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: In Paul Dehner's latest article, he provides examples of why bringing back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons usually ends up badly -
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2018/12/27/analysis-coaches-endure-three-straight-losing-seasons-shows-definitive-trend-marvin-lewis-bengals/2422821002/

Taking from Paul's article and using PFR, here's what you normally get when you bring back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons:

Since Marvin was hired, 12 other coaches have had 3 straight losing seasons and survived through the last game.

After the season ended, 7 were fired and 5 were retained.

Of the 5 that were retained, only Sean Payton had a winning record the next season. Of course, Payton was also a different case because he had previously won a SB and multiple playoff games, which factored into the reasoning for keeping him.

The other 4 coaches that were retained after 3 straight losing seasons had a combined record of 14-32 the following year and 3 of them got fired at some point during the season:

Jeff Fisher: 7-9 (He was also brought back the following year, but fired after 13 games)
Dick Jauron: 3-6
Gus Bradley: 2-12
Mike Nolan: 2-5

(12-27-2018, 06:39 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 19-28-1 over three year span, 0-7 in playoffs, 2 wins at home against biggest rival, regularly folds under the lights, loses nearly 75% of the time to playoff bound teams and for 16 seasons !

And he can decide if he wants to come back ? You couldn't make this up.

(12-27-2018, 06:27 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: In Paul Dehner's latest article, he provides examples of why bringing back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons usually ends up badly -
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2018/12/27/analysis-coaches-endure-three-straight-losing-seasons-shows-definitive-trend-marvin-lewis-bengals/2422821002/

Taking from Paul's article and using PFR, here's what you normally get when you bring back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons:

Since Marvin was hired, 12 other coaches have had 3 straight losing seasons and survived through the last game.

After the season ended, 7 were fired and 5 were retained.

Of the 5 that were retained, only Sean Payton had a winning record the next season. Of course, Payton was also a different case because he had previously won a SB and multiple playoff games, which factored into the reasoning for keeping him.

The other 4 coaches that were retained after 3 straight losing seasons had a combined record of 14-32 the following year and 3 of them got fired at some point during the season:

Jeff Fisher: 7-9 (He was also brought back the following year, but fired after 13 games)
Dick Jauron: 3-6
Gus Bradley: 2-12
Mike Nolan: 2-5

(12-27-2018, 07:56 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The numbers are pretty telling, that it's not likely to work out well.

(12-27-2018, 08:18 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: It's an overused cliche but the game really has passed Marvin by. His chance was way back in 05-09.

(12-27-2018, 09:25 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: IDK, Marv has always, even then, seemed really bad at clock management, player improvement, losing to the Steelers and choking in prime time/playoffs. I just don’t think he should have ever been a HC, like a Norv Turner, his skill set is best suited as a coordinator.

(12-27-2018, 09:25 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: IDK, Marv has always, even then, seemed really bad at clock management, player improvement, losing to the Steelers and choking in prime time/playoffs. I just don’t think he should have ever been a HC, like a Norv Turner, his skill set is best suited as a coordinator.

• Controlling all his coordinators but Zimmer (this is a gut thing not a fact)
• How badly coached the team seems to be: tackling, gap integrity, penalties, assignment failures, John Ross (is it possible he's not quitting on routes but going where he's told to go?   He ran fine routes in college...)
• Rigid thinking - e.g. the O line just needs to continue playing together rather than trying different combinations
• Making the same mistakes over and over
• Hiring Hue when he did.  The whole team must feel humiliated.  I know I am.
• Playing not to lose
• Being a slave to a system rather than conforming the system to your players' strengths
• Throwing players and coaches under the bus
• Failing to develop creative (versus gimmicky) solutions to problems
• The whole denial of half time adjustments being a reality in the NFL
  

(12-27-2018, 09:42 PM)3wt Wrote: I think you're right.  He's done a pretty good job of salvaging the defense' season.

And it's not just the stats.  Though it is.  When you put his stats in context it is much more appalling than I thought.

It's the eye test:

• Controlling all his coordinators but Zimmer (this is a gut thing not a fact)
• How badly coached the team seems to be: tackling, gap integrity, penalties, assignment failures, John Ross (is it possible he's not quitting on routes but going where he's told to go?   He ran fine routes in college...)
• Rigid thinking - e.g. the O line just needs to continue playing together rather than trying different combinations
• Making the same mistakes over and over
• Hiring Hue when he did.  The whole team must feel humiliated.  I know I am.
• Playing not to lose
• Being a slave to a system rather than conforming the system to your players' strengths
• Throwing players and coaches under the bus
• Failing to develop creative (versus gimmicky) solutions to problems
• The whole denial of half time adjustments being a reality in the NFL
  

Fine man.   But he should just not be a head coach.

(12-27-2018, 09:42 PM)3wt Wrote: I think you're right.  He's done a pretty good job of salvaging the defense' season.

And it's not just the stats.  Though it is.  When you put his stats in context it is much more appalling than I thought.

It's the eye test:

• Controlling all his coordinators but Zimmer (this is a gut thing not a fact)
• How badly coached the team seems to be: tackling, gap integrity, penalties, assignment failures, John Ross (is it possible he's not quitting on routes but going where he's told to go?   He ran fine routes in college...)
• Rigid thinking - e.g. the O line just needs to continue playing together rather than trying different combinations
• Making the same mistakes over and over
• Hiring Hue when he did.  The whole team must feel humiliated.  I know I am.
• Playing not to lose
• Being a slave to a system rather than conforming the system to your players' strengths
• Throwing players and coaches under the bus
• Failing to develop creative (versus gimmicky) solutions to problems
• The whole denial of half time adjustments being a reality in the NFL
  

Fine man.   But he should just not be a head coach.

(12-27-2018, 09:42 PM)3wt Wrote: I think you're right.  He's done a pretty good job of salvaging the defense' season.

And it's not just the stats.  Though it is.  When you put his stats in context it is much more appalling than I thought.

It's the eye test:

• Controlling all his coordinators but Zimmer (this is a gut thing not a fact)
• How badly coached the team seems to be: tackling, gap integrity, penalties, assignment failures, John Ross (is it possible he's not quitting on routes but going where he's told to go?   He ran fine routes in college...)
• Rigid thinking - e.g. the O line just needs to continue playing together rather than trying different combinations
• Making the same mistakes over and over
• Hiring Hue when he did.  The whole team must feel humiliated.  I know I am.
• Playing not to lose
• Being a slave to a system rather than conforming the system to your players' strengths
• Throwing players and coaches under the bus
• Failing to develop creative (versus gimmicky) solutions to problems
• The whole denial of half time adjustments being a reality in the NFL
  
  

Fine man.   But he should just not be a head coach.

(12-27-2018, 11:56 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Nice post brother, need to move on no question. All of this shows this and reps to you and Holic.

Not a good idea to keep this guy around another year no matter what the injuries were.

(12-27-2018, 06:39 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 19-28-1 over three year span, 0-7 in playoffs, 2 wins at home against biggest rival, regularly folds under the lights, loses nearly 75% of the time to playoff bound teams and for 16 seasons !

And he can decide if he wants to come back ? You couldn't make this up.

(12-28-2018, 12:48 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Never has any fan base (in any sport) endured this much failure from one head coach for anything close to this long.

It's a special sort of suffering we have to endure as Bengals fans.

(12-28-2018, 10:59 AM)PhilHos Wrote: It's bad enough to have to suffer through the 90s. Now, we have to suffer through the era of Merv.

(12-28-2018, 01:55 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Lol yep. First we go through one of the all-time worst era's, then for enduring that, we're rewarded with the teflon coach.

(12-28-2018, 03:11 PM)Wyche Wrote: It took 15 years to get from the abyss to the continental shelf, maybe we'll hit the beach in 2035.