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+--- Thread: Next years projections? (/thread-19058.html)
Next years projections? - Hoofhearted - 01-29-2019
Was looking at Fangraphs, and noticed they projected us as a .500 team. I personally feel that's about right, but also think it's an 81 win team with high upside. If they can get some luck to go there way, I think they can challenge for a wildcard spot in September. I think the Reds are going with the Brewers approach of having an Elite offense with average offense. I think Vottos power will increase a little, Puig tear it up at GABP, and Castillo start gaining ACE potential, we'll be a tough team.
What are your expectation/projections?
RE: Next years projections? - bengalfan74 - 01-29-2019
Four seasons in a row the Reds have finished in the mid 60's in wins. I think it's nearly certain they'll improve on that several games. I believe .500 is well within reach ! But you're talking about a 13,14 game improvement right there !
I don't think them coming in above .500 is crazy talk but reaching 90 wins ? You're talking a 25 game swing
If they can stay in the hunt anything is possible come September. But I still believe they're a top shelf starter away from being a true contender.
RE: Next years projections? - guyofthetiger - 01-29-2019
It is still early. But, I see the Reds improving. We still have a tough division and .500 might be a stretch. I can see maybe winning 74 games this year for sure.
RE: Next years projections? - Hoofhearted - 01-29-2019
(01-29-2019, 02:06 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Four seasons in a row the Reds have finished in the mid 60's in wins. I think it's nearly certain they'll improve on that several games. I believe .500 is well within reach ! But you're talking about a 13,14 game improvement right there !
I don't think them coming in above .500 is crazy talk but reaching 90 wins ? You're talking a 25 game swing
If they can stay in the hunt anything is possible come September. But I still believe they're a top shelf starter away from being a true contender.
I mean, they do have something like 8 new starters, so it's not insane. But highly improbably
I would be super happy with a 15 game swing while keeping our best prospects. I think the top pitcher thing is something of the past (well, at least trying to trade for one). I think the Rays have started a new system on how to approach pitching, but well see how it plays out
RE: Next years projections? - Hoofhearted - 01-29-2019
(01-29-2019, 02:37 PM)guyofthetiger Wrote: It is still early. But, I see the Reds improving. We still have a tough division and .500 might be a stretch. I can see maybe winning 74 games this year for sure.
Yea, being in same Div as Brewers, Cubs and Cards is just so tough. I think this would be a pretty solid team in a few other divisions outside the NLC
RE: Next years projections? - bengalfan74 - 01-29-2019
(01-29-2019, 03:08 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: I mean, they do have something like 8 new starters, so it's not insane. But highly improbably
I would be super happy with a 15 game swing while keeping our best prospects. I think the top pitcher thing is something of the past (well, at least trying to trade for one). I think the Rays have started a new system on how to approach pitching, but well see how it plays out
Let's hope Hunter Greene comes along
RE: Next years projections? - psychdoctor - 01-29-2019
If they stand pat with existing roster and everyone remains healthy, I see 82 wins. If the Reds get Realmuto I see at least 85-86 wins. If they can also add (with Realmuto) Kluber or Keuchel, then I see 89-90 wins. This offense is going to be potent, it comes down to how Wood and Gray perform and Disco's health.
Also, they grabbed one of the best hitting and pitching coaches in the National League along with the energy of Bell, which makes me hopeful.
RE: Next years projections? - Hoofhearted - 01-29-2019
(01-29-2019, 08:15 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: If they stand pat with existing roster and everyone remains healthy, I see 82 wins. If the Reds get Realmuto I see at least 85-86 wins. If they can also add (with Realmuto) Kluber or Keuchel, then I see 89-90 wins. This offense is going to be potent, it comes down to how Wood and Gray perform and Disco's health.
Also, they grabbed one of the best hitting and pitching coaches in the National League along with the energy of Bell, which makes me hopeful.
If Bell is advertised, I can see him giving us a few wins. If they can modernize their approach, I can see them squeezing out 85 wins. But I’m this division that would be a pretty big feat. If they get Realmuto, the offense will be Elite. So I’d also bump to 90. They somehow get a CF, maybe a solid RP that surprises, this team can get it. Maybe not cream of the crop, but I’d damn sure watch them play
RE: Next years projections? - Circleville Guy - 01-30-2019
The Reds went from a terrible starting 5 staff to possibly a league average staff, that’s big. It pushes everyone back and that also provides depth. Some of the past starters can now solely focus on the bullpen too. You had little offense from last years outfield. You have 2 or 3 new guys there and 2 guys that were hurt last year hopefully will be healthy. If they pull off the trade at catcher, they might have the best offense in the national league. You could see 20+ homeruns at nearly every position, the OBP should be better too. The teams ERA could be a run less per game. If the catcher trade is pulled off, I’d be disappointed with less than 88 wins. It’s a pretty extensive overhaul of players, throw in the coaching changes and this is an entirely different team all together. Every aspect, except the solid infield is different.
RE: Next years projections? - bengalfan74 - 01-30-2019
I'm getting kinda anxious for Spring Training, see what they got ? It would be great and a giant change to be still playing meaningful baseball into August.
RE: Next years projections? - grampahol - 01-30-2019
I project they'll win somewhere between 0 and 162 games..hopefully closer to 162 than 0. I do think we'll see marked improvement. Even in down years I always feel positive around this time of year with regards to baseball, Reds in particular. Sometimes all they need is enough players to have lucky seasons.
They brought in Cristian Perez as assistant pullpen coach and advanced scouting coach (whatever that means)
He was kind of tough to pin down in a search, but he spent 3 years playing at Duke, some time at USC then began climbing through the business end somewhere in 2017 from AZ to MLB to the Reds. There's not a lot about him to read up on, but there's a musician by the same name as well as a minor league player by the same name. I guess the Reds like his potential not as a player, but in coaching possibly or as a scout somewhere down the road. Only thing I could find on him.. https://www.linkedin.com/in/cristian-x-perez
Who knows? Perhaps Ian Krol (lefty) will turn in a great season from the bullpen. He's invited to the big club in the spring with a minor league contract. 2.72 era with both Angels and Mets minor league clubs last year and has been up and down in the bigs with various clubs. You never know with guys like this. They sometimes hit paydirt with young guys who've bounced around a bit.
RE: Next years projections? - Hoofhearted - 01-30-2019
(01-30-2019, 01:57 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: The Reds went from a terrible starting 5 staff to possibly a league average staff, that’s big. It pushes everyone back and that also provides depth. Some of the past starters can now solely focus on the bullpen too. You had little offense from last years outfield. You have 2 or 3 new guys there and 2 guys that were hurt last year hopefully will be healthy. If they pull off the trade at catcher, they might have the best offense in the national league. You could see 20+ homeruns at nearly every position, the OBP should be better too. The teams ERA could be a run less per game. If the catcher trade is pulled off, I’d be disappointed with less than 88 wins. It’s a pretty extensive overhaul of players, throw in the coaching changes and this is an entirely different team all together. Every aspect, except the solid infield is different.
I think if they get Realmato, that also helps the pitching. He’s one of the best pitch framers in the game. Tucker I believe is close to last. His blocking is very good tho, which is how he won his GG. But 88 wins is still probably a tad high for your “floor” expectations tbh even with Real. Our division is ranked as one of the closest divisions in the last 5 years or so. Not the best, but from overall expected wins/losses. It’ll be tough
RE: Next years projections? - Hoofhearted - 01-30-2019
(01-30-2019, 03:28 PM)grampahol Wrote: I project they'll win somewhere between 0 and 162 games..hopefully closer to 162 than 0. I do think we'll see marked improvement. Even in down years I always feel positive around this time of year with regards to baseball, Reds in particular. Sometimes all they need is enough players to have lucky seasons.
They brought in Cristian Perez as assistant pullpen coach and advanced scouting coach (whatever that means)
He was kind of tough to pin down in a search, but he spent 3 years playing at Duke, some time at USC then began climbing through the business end somewhere in 2017 from AZ to MLB to the Reds. There's not a lot about him to read up on, but there's a musician by the same name as well as a minor league player by the same name. I guess the Reds like his potential not as a player, but in coaching possibly or as a scout somewhere down the road. Only thing I could find on him.. https://www.linkedin.com/in/cristian-x-perez
Who knows? Perhaps Ian Krol (lefty) will turn in a great season from the bullpen. He's invited to the big club in the spring with a minor league contract. 2.72 era with both Angels and Mets minor league clubs last year and has been up and down in the bigs with various clubs. You never know with guys like this. They sometimes hit paydirt with young guys who've bounced around a bit.
Last year was one of the few years I wasn’t optimistic come spring training. But otherwise, I have been pretty optimistic, even with first two years of the rebuild. The third (last year) was pretty painful tho. Water under the bridge tho. I also think they’ll have a much better pen, if for anything else they’ll not be afraid to think outside the box like never bringing in your closer past the 7th inning, etc. I’m just happy to have hope lol
RE: Next years projections? - Hoofhearted - 01-30-2019
(01-30-2019, 02:02 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm getting kinda anxious for Spring Training, see what they got ? It would be great and a giant change to be still playing meaningful baseball into August.
I think they will. I’m saying 2-5 games out of WC spot in September
RE: Next years projections? - Wyche'sWarrior - 01-30-2019
.500 should definitely not be out of the realm of possibility.
RE: Next years projections? - grampahol - 01-30-2019
I think it might be very interesting how they use two pitchers in particular, Iglesias and our grand slammability guy Lorenzen. Both have been starters in the past. I'd hate to see Iglesias have his arm burnt out starting when it's been a good while since his last start, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility that he could actually make the conversion.
Lorenzen has some real potential now that we have a real pitching coach. The guy has a couple of cannons hanging off his shoulders..