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+--- Thread: Stats around positional drafting by rounds (/thread-19659.html)
Stats around positional drafting by rounds - Hoofhearted - 03-19-2019
Found this cool article around what the stats tell us about the success rate by position and round. This article 4 years old, but still has good data.
Here's the tl;dr version:
Quote:Historic Success Chart
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
I find the DL data to be fascinating. You have better odds of finding a starter in the fourth round than second and third? O-line was pretty interesting as it looks like we defied BOTH odds and drafted two "busts" in first two rounds. Also WR looks like a safe bet in the second round.Thoughts?
RE: Stats around positional drafting by rounds - ochocincos - 03-19-2019
The article does state it doesn't take into account your performance as a starter, just that you were a starter for multiple years. So Bodine, for example, would make this list.
Let me also mention the bolded statements in the article as takeaways:
- In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter.
- There is a very high bust rate for RBs.
- The first round has an 83% success rate (for offensive line). The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).
- The third and fifth round seem to be good bets for picking a tight end.
- The first round success rate (for WR) is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.
- Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.
- If you select a linebacker in the first round, there is a relatively low bust rate.
- (For DBs) After you get past the success rates of the first two rounds (64% in the first, 46% in the second), there isn't a huge difference in success (24% - 3rd, 11% - 4th, 17% - 5th, 8% - 6th, 11% - 7th)
- If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.
EDIT - Since this article is a few years old, I do wonder if the OL probability of success has gone down since then. I've noticed fewer OL being good compared to 5-10 years ago.
RE: Stats around positional drafting by rounds - Hoofhearted - 03-19-2019
(03-19-2019, 10:54 AM)ochocincos Wrote: The article does state it doesn't take into account your performance as a starter, just that you were a starter for multiple years. So Bodine, for example, would make this list.
Let me also mention the bolded statements in the article as takeaways:
- In the last 10 years, 38 QBs have been drafted in the 5th and 6th rounds and not one has become a starter.
- There is a very high bust rate for RBs.
- The first round has an 83% success rate (for offensive line). The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).
- The third and fifth round seem to be good bets for picking a tight end.
- The first round success rate (for WR) is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.
- Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.
- If you select a linebacker in the first round, there is a relatively low bust rate.
- (For DBs) After you get past the success rates of the first two rounds (64% in the first, 46% in the second), there isn't a huge difference in success (24% - 3rd, 11% - 4th, 17% - 5th, 8% - 6th, 11% - 7th)
- If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.
Yeah, they don't differentiate between if they were good our not, but they did say start half their career. So maybe not "good", but they're still a starting NFL lineman (or whatever other position). Probably because of supply and demand.
RE: Stats around positional drafting by rounds - Mike M (the other one) - 03-21-2019
(03-19-2019, 11:14 AM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Yeah, they don't differentiate between if they were good our not, but they did say start half their career. So maybe not "good", but they're still a starting NFL lineman (or whatever other position). Probably because of supply and demand.
Same applies for the DL, and we know DL gets drafted high every year.
So it balances out on that part.