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+--- Thread: Off-season plan to setup this specific draft (/thread-22837.html)
Off-season plan to setup this specific draft - phil413 - 01-20-2020
"We need to..." more often is a frustrated way to come to grips with justifying why we love this losing team. I'm still here too, but lets look realistically at the off-season to setup this specific draft, rather than being that guy on the call in show.
https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/gallery/nfl-free-agency-2020-bengals-class-resign-or-walk/
I'll agree with the article that it's pretty spot on with who Cincy keeps. AJ and Eifert (my disagreement with the article) come back as threats to both gain yards and get hurt, but they'll stay loyal. Billings and Dennard give you young stability in specific roles long term as well. Let's also project an extra 2nd/3rd pick for Dalton while we're at it.
Linebacker and OL are still Cincy's biggest weaknesses, no Hobspin here so lets dive into LB. The LB FA class has more rush types and quantity over quality for coverage and middle guys. Expect a lot of talk of reaching out for visits and tire kicking without a game changer coming. The best they come up with is taking advantage of teams with multiple FA's at LB and little to spend. The Bears have Kwiatkoski, Trevathan and Pierre-Louis hitting the market. Cincy signs Kevin Pierre-Louis in hopes that his demons (depression, 1 game substance suspension) are behind him and the last 3 games of the year aren't a fluke. They also do the same with Baltimore's MLB Patrick Onwuasor.
That sets them up for a draft in which drafttek rates 11 LB's in the top 60-100 players overall. That's where the sweet spot is. Planning to draft a specific player, LB especially this year could backfire. So, look for Kenneth Murray and Malik Harrison to be of the board when Cincy comes up in round 2. The depth of the position pushes them to resist packaging picks to secure a need, so instead we end up with two linebackers by the 4th round. Something like one year wonder WLB Keandre Jones from Maryland and adding a few lbs to Troy Dye. So look for revamping of the LB group with Pierre-Louis, Jones, Dye and Onwuasor competing with Pratt and Vigil in a wide open may the best 2 men win and the rest fill proper roles.
There's better news for the offensive line though, I think we really put a good group together. The best chance of landing an impact player this year will be Joe Thuney, a pro-bowl snub/stud guard that grew up an hour north of Cincy. They should throw 10M/yr at him as a versatile LG that can slide to either tackle spot if needed. That allow them to go Williams/Thuney/Hopkins on the left side, lets be excited about that. That's because Mikey doesn't pay guys not to play, so Hart and Price won't be cut. So we're looking at Price and MJ as interior depth, and if one surprises they push RG John Miller. We know we're looking at Fred Johnson vs Bobby Hart at RT, but there is hope in terms of the draft. Adams and Tega Wanogho are possible in the 2nd, but look for a monster the size of Lucas Niang or the athletic Josh Jones to be there by the 3rd and give them a threat to open up a play action game for Burrow, Mixon and the threats to receive.
So, we've worked through the biggest problem areas for this reason, if they play FA properly, they'll be free to take TRUE BPA in the 2nd. That may be the key to the off-season, be able to take a mid-1st ranked talent with that first pick in the 2nd. There should be a run on OT and rush defenders due to need, and WR has a lot of talent through the whole crop. I think the team ranks corners like C.J. Henderson and Bryce Hall as mid 1st round guys and are surprised when one is still there when they come up. So I'll go with a draft of:
1. QB Joe Burrow LSU
2. CB C.J. Henderson Florida
3. OLB Keandre Jones Maryland
3. RT Lucas Niang TCU (TCU Alum Dalton traded pick)
4. LB Tony Dye Oregon
5. EDGE Oluwole Betiku Illinois - Super hyped HS prospect has limited PT due to injury but with Cincy moving guys around on the DL and limited at LB, they may take a true edge rusher in the mid rounds and his potential is too good to pass on here.
6. WR John Hightower Boise State - Depth of the class pushes this skinny framed burst threat to the top of the 6th. He'd have time to develop behind Green, Boyd, Erickson, and Tate to push Ross off the roster in a year or provide a weapon to move around.
7. DT Ross Blacklock TCU - Power and Speed but hasn't shown enough with the 2018 injury. A lot for the coaches to try to unlock to groom behind Geno.
Even if you disagree with the mock itself, this is a realistic look at the off-season and how it could play out IMO. If it isn't, please comment. Thanks.
RE: Off-season plan to setup this specific draft - shanebo - 01-20-2020
Good analysis, and I like the plan. I'd like to get more for Andy, but recognize that we'll probably keep or cut him. I really don't see us getting 4 LBs either, although I'd really like to see that happen ... I'd be happy to sign one FA LB and draft one. Sign Pierre-Louis, draft Niang in 3 and Dye in 4 (assuming he isn't drafted earlier) seems within the realm of possibility.
RE: Off-season plan to setup this specific draft - Hammerstripes - 01-20-2020
I would say your scenario is very unrealistic, but it's certainly not undesirable.
Here's my main issues:
1. If we re-sign Vigil, we still have Pratt who showed significant improvement over the last part of the season. We play only 2 LBs a vast majority of the time. So, given that, why would we go out and bring in that many guys at the position?
2. I wouldn't touch Pierre-Lewis with any sort of decent money. You can't roll the dice on a guy with issues. If it doesn't pan out, then you'll keep hearing about how we can't spend money on free agents because it never works out.
3. If we signed a legit starter in free agency, I wouldn't want to waste a first or second day pick on a linebacker that wouldn't see the field very often.
4. This team has limited resources in their own eyes. Spending that on linebackers would take away from another spot.
5. The guy that I think best fits what we need (Dye) probably won't last until the 4th round.