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+--- Thread: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! (/thread-23622.html)
Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - schroomytunes - 04-11-2020
I may be a little nuts here, but hear me out. Sure trading down from 33 probably nets you an extra 3rd rounder, but IMHO it takes us out of an opportunity to draft an elite player that fell out of the 1st round for some reason. There is that guy every year that falls so why should we not capatilize? I think trading back in the 3rd and gaining an extra 4th is the way to go. IMHO those 3rd/4th round guys are all pretty similar it just depends on your scheme as an offense/defense. With what we did this year in free agency I would love something like this:
1-Burrow- QB (LSU)
2) Cesar Ruiz- Guard ( Michigan)
3) Van Jefferson- WR (Florida)
4) Logan Wilson-LB (Wyoming)
4) Josh Uche -Edge/LB ( Michigan)
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - phil413 - 04-11-2020
All trades are situational, but this is an overlooked option. We don't know who will be sitting there in the 2nd, hopefully you are right that a great prospect does indeed fall.
Specifically with a trade in the 3rd, I'd consider targeting a deep positon rather than a specific player. The WR class is so deep that the best play may be passing on one if they're the BPA in the 2nd or 3rd, dealing down a few spots and getting the extra pick, knowing you'll end up with a valuable WR and BPA with the 2 picks you dealt for.
You spell this out very well with the mock. The difference in the WR at the top of the 3rd to the traded pick is slim. The extra pick lets you fit another need or stack depth. You did this with the pick, they may do this with LB or OL.
Lastly, an acquired pick also makes a trade for a vet an option. Specifically, I love landing Wilson in the 4th but would you still make that deal if you knew he would be gone? If we get to the 4th with no LB, look for them to llok to trade for a stopgap with a mid to late round pick or play the FA market.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - schroomytunes - 04-11-2020
(04-11-2020, 10:19 PM)phil413 Wrote: All trades are situational, but this is an overlooked option. We don't know who will be sitting there in the 2nd, hopefully you are right that a great prospect does indeed fall.
Specifically with a trade in the 3rd, I'd consider targeting a deep positon rather than a specific player. The WR class is so deep that the best play may be passing on one if they're the BPA in the 2nd or 3rd, dealing down a few spots and getting the extra pick, knowing you'll end up with a valuable WR and BPA with the 2 picks you dealt for.
You spell this out very well with the mock. The difference in the WR at the top of the 3rd to the traded pick is slim. The extra pick lets you fit another need or stack depth. You did this with the pick, they may do this with LB or OL.
Lastly, an acquired pick also makes a trade for a vet an option. Specifically, I love landing Wilson in the 4th but would you still make that deal if you knew he would be gone? If we get to the 4th with no LB, look for them to llok to trade for a stopgap with a mid to late round pick or play the FA market.
I would!!! my thinking is there will be some LB's/Hybrids available in the 4th rd that will fit our scheme, and if all else fails we could look to add a cheap vet LB that will be available after the draft on a 1yr deal.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - McC - 04-11-2020
(04-11-2020, 09:46 PM)schroomytunes Wrote: I may be a little nuts here, but hear me out. Sure trading down from 33 probably nets you an extra 3rd rounder, but IMHO it takes us out of an opportunity to draft an elite player that fell out of the 1st round for some reason. There is that guy every year that falls so why should we not capatilize? I think trading back in the 3rd and gaining an extra 4th is the way to go. IMHO those 3rd/4th round guys are all pretty similar it just depends on your scheme as an offense/defense. With what we did this year in free agency I would love something like this:
1-Burrow- QB (LSU)
2) Cesar Ruiz- Guard ( Michigan)
3) Van Jefferson- WR (Florida)
4) Logan Wilson-LB (Wyoming)
4) Josh Uche -Edge/LB ( Michigan)
From what I've seen, I'd say most people saying trade down from 33 are including the caveat that you trade if a first rounder hasn't slid down. Not all but most. At the very least, you're almost bound to get some very interesting calls and some appealing offers. That is going to be a very interesting overnight.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - SunsetBengal - 04-11-2020
Toke, toke, toke it up man!
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - jfkbengals - 04-11-2020
(04-11-2020, 11:02 PM)McC Wrote: From what I've seen, I'd say most people saying trade down from 33 are including the caveat that you trade if a first rounder hasn't slid down. Not all but most. At the very least, you're almost bound to get some very interesting calls and some appealing offers. That is going to be a very interesting overnight.
Considering most drafts have less than 15-20 guys with a first round grade, the chance of a first rounder making it into the second is a slim proposition. The value at the top of the second round comes from teams who are desperate to fill a position in which the draft is thin. They are willing to give up later picks because they do not feel the depth in the draft is adequate to fulfill their need once they are on the clock at their current position.
With that said, you are 100% correct that there should be some appealing offers for that pick. I have a feeling that someone might fear Detroit and/or Washington taking a QB and be willing to cough up a really nice package to get in there...
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - Mike M (the other one) - 04-12-2020
Always open to trading except for our first this year.
With out the pro days and ability to meet the later round smaller school guys, I hope they add at least 2-3 extra rounds to give those guys a chance.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - bengals67 - 04-12-2020
Really good idea by OP. Hadn't thought about trading the 3.
Bengals staff knowledge of senior bowl players means they might get two really good prospects in fourth round.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - Nate (formerly eliminate08) - 04-12-2020
I think we will see a trade down at some point in this Draft with us holding the first pick in every round.
It is the most valuable pick in each round so why not take advantage?
I like that Mock a lot BTW Schroomy and we normally pick well in the 4th so this might be the way to go.
Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - JSR18 - 04-12-2020
I wouldn't be against it at all if they keep the 1st and 2nd. If they don't use the 2nd round on a WR, then the 3rd needs to be Chase Claypool WR ND and 1 of the 4th's need to be TE Moss LSU.
Surround Burrow with weapons for the future...
Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - Nate (formerly eliminate08) - 04-12-2020
(04-12-2020, 05:29 PM)JSR18 Wrote: I wouldn't be against it at all if they keep the 1st and 2nd. If they don't use the 2nd round on a WR, then the 3rd needs to be Chase Claypool WR ND and 1 of the 4th's need to be TE Moss LSU.
Surround Burrow with weapons for the future...
Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
Those are two of my favorite players in this Draft. Would absolutely love to get both Claypool and Moss.
Could happen too with the depth at WR and Moss coming off of foot surgery.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - Hammerstripes - 04-13-2020
Trading the 33 pick will give you a better return than the #65 pick.
If you can pick up an extra 3rd by trading down, do it. The players that we need (LBs, OG, WR) are in the round 3 sweet spot.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - BengalChris - 04-13-2020
I believe the team needs to come out of this draft with a starting QB (obviously) and at least two others who are starter caliber, plus some quality depth. OG, LB and WR are the clear needs for starting caliber players. AJ isn't going to be here forever and Boyd is a very good #2, but he's no #1 and Ross needs the moon and stars to align somehow to have a good game and be healthy.
So, I expect the team to concentrate on those positions throughout the draft.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - ochocincos - 04-13-2020
The 3rd rounder is basically a late 2nd rounder, so I'd rather they keep that pick unless there really is no target worth the 65th pick.
I'd be fine with seeing the Bengals trade their 5th along with their 6th and/or 7th to get back into the 4th though or trade their 6th+7th to get back into the 5th.
Most 6th and 7th rounders don't make the roster or see the field much aside from ST anyway, so you may as well just fill those spots with UDFAs.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - Nate (formerly eliminate08) - 04-13-2020
(04-13-2020, 02:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The 3rd rounder is basically a late 2nd rounder, so I'd rather they keep that pick unless there really is no target worth the 65th pick.
I'd be fine with seeing the Bengals trade their 5th along with their 6th and/or 7th to get back into the 4th though or trade their 6th+7th to get back into the 5th.
Most 6th and 7th rounders don't make the roster or see the field much aside from ST anyway, so you may as well just fill those spots with UDFAs.
I don't know, we have done pretty well with late picks...
Housh was a 7th rounder and lately Brandon Wilson and Auden Tate.
But I do like what you are saying as the mid rounds are the sweet spot of this Draft for WR's, OL and LB's.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - TheLeonardLeap - 04-13-2020
Trading up at #33 to #32 or #31 makes more sense to me. Maybe even to #29 ahead of the Packers to snag Justin Jefferson if he's still there.
Get that 5th year of control, and trading up just 1-2 spots shouldn't cost much. Maybe a 5th round swap with the team you're trading up with.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - ochocincos - 04-13-2020
(04-13-2020, 02:32 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I don't know, we have done pretty well with late picks...
Housh was a 7th rounder and lately Brandon Wilson and Auden Tate.
But I do like what you are saying as the mid rounds are the sweet spot of this Draft for WR's, OL and LB's.
1) Housh was 18 years ago.
2) I didn't say they don't hit every now and then, but the likelihood of hitting on 6th and 7th rounders is low.
Over the past 10 years, there have been 27 picks in the 6th and 7th round for the Bengals.
Out of those, here are the following who "hit":
- Rex Burkhead (2013)
- Clayton Fejedelem (2016)
- Brandon Wilson (2017)
- Auden Tate (2018)
14% chance across both rounds for the Bengals.
Meanwhile, there have been 14 5th round picks in the same time frame.
Out of those, here are the following who "hit":
- Marvin Jones (2012)
- George Iloka (2012)
- AJ McCarron (2014)
- CJ Uzomah (2015)
- Jake Elliott (2017)
- Davontae Harris (2018)
- Darius Phillips (2018)
50% hit rate for the Bengals in the 5th round.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - TheLeonardLeap - 04-13-2020
(04-13-2020, 02:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: 1) Housh was 18 years ago.
2) I didn't say they don't hit every now and then, but the likelihood of hitting on 6th and 7th rounders is low.
Over the past 10 years, there have been 27 picks in the 6th and 7th round for the Bengals.
Out of those, here are the following who "hit":
- Rex Burkhead (2013)
- Clayton Fejedelem (2016)
- Brandon Wilson (2017)
- Auden Tate (2018)
14% chance across both rounds for the Bengals.
Meanwhile, there have been 14 5th round picks in the same time frame.
Out of those, here are the following who "hit":
- Marvin Jones (2012)
- George Iloka (2012)
- AJ McCarron (2014)
- CJ Uzomah (2015)
- Jake Elliott (2017)
- Davontae Harris (2018)
- Darius Phillips (2018)
50% hit rate for the Bengals in the 5th round.
Awfully liberal usage of the term "hit" on that list, Ocho. Lol
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - Nate (formerly eliminate08) - 04-13-2020
(04-13-2020, 02:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: 1) Housh was 18 years ago.
2) I didn't say they don't hit every now and then, but the likelihood of hitting on 6th and 7th rounders is low.
Over the past 10 years, there have been 27 picks in the 6th and 7th round for the Bengals.
Out of those, here are the following who "hit":
- Rex Burkhead (2013)
- Clayton Fejedelem (2016)
- Brandon Wilson (2017)
- Auden Tate (2018)
14% chance across both rounds for the Bengals.
Meanwhile, there have been 14 5th round picks in the same time frame.
Out of those, here are the following who "hit":
- Marvin Jones (2012)
- George Iloka (2012)
- AJ McCarron (2014)
- CJ Uzomah (2015)
- Jake Elliott (2017)
- Davontae Harris (2018)
- Darius Phillips (2018)
50% hit rate for the Bengals in the 5th round.
Yes, the percentage is much higher to hit on a player in the mid rounds no question.
Especially this year with the depth at WR and interior O-line.
Was just saying we did pretty good with Brandon Wilson and Auden Tate lately.
Usually the 7th is Simmons pick anyways.
RE: Trading down in the 3rd makes more sense!! - TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes - 04-14-2020
(04-11-2020, 09:46 PM)schroomytunes Wrote: I may be a little nuts here, but hear me out. Sure trading down from 33 probably nets you an extra 3rd rounder, but IMHO it takes us out of an opportunity to draft an elite player that fell out of the 1st round for some reason. There is that guy every year that falls so why should we not capatilize? I think trading back in the 3rd and gaining an extra 4th is the way to go. IMHO those 3rd/4th round guys are all pretty similar it just depends on your scheme as an offense/defense. With what we did this year in free agency I would love something like this:
1-Burrow- QB (LSU)
2) Cesar Ruiz- Guard ( Michigan)
3) Van Jefferson- WR (Florida)
4) Logan Wilson-LB (Wyoming)
4) Josh Uche -Edge/LB ( Michigan)
Depends on who's on the board. If you've got a group of 6 players all with the same grade at positions of need and someone is offering you a third to move back five spots take it.