+- Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise (https://thebengalsboard.com)
+-- Forum: Cincinnati Bengals / NFL (https://thebengalsboard.com/forum-3.html)
+--- Forum: JUNGLE NOISE (https://thebengalsboard.com/forum-2.html)
+--- Thread: Salary cap and extensions (/thread-23937.html)
Salary cap and extensions - SErebel11 - 05-03-2020
I decided to take a deep dive into the salary cap and look at extensions. I want to preface this with a few things of note.
1) I used the overthecap.com site for these numbers. I also used spotrac for the rookie deals.
2) For this exercise, I am not interested in discussing positional battles for the back end roster spots nor for how many they keep from each position group because it is mostly irrelevant. The 6th cornerback will make similar money as the 7th wide receiver as the 10th defensive lineman and so on.
3) I used the projection of 215 million for the 2021 season from overthecap.com, however, if the NFL season is impacted by the coronavirus in terms of fan attendance or shortening the season then the cap will be impacted and could even go down significantly.
4) I did not add the 8-10 million rollover the Bengals generally have due to the ambition 215 million cap number.
5) I used a 55 man roster even though they cut to 53 but only counted the top 51 salaries toward the cap.
[attachment=792]
The first thing of note is Cincinnati has about 17.8 million left for this season. They have some wiggle room available on top of that should they cut Carter, Redmond or more unlikely Williams. They can also buy some cap space this season with extensions but I don't think that will matter too much. I honestly don't know how much more they will spend on anything significant this season because with Reader's contract, Bell's contract, Waynes's contract and the draft they have spent over 63 million in signing bonuses.I know people look at the cap as resources spent but signing bonuses are spread out over the cap for the length of the deal. The actual expenditures for this season as I understand it is currently 63 million + 125 million in salaries + 22 million in bonuses for around 210 million if I am looking at it correctly.
In 2021, the Bengals have roughly 76 million in cap space available. They also have 37 of the 55 players I listed under contract in 2021. That means they have 18 roster spots at minimum to fill.
Starting with specialists: All 3 specialists (K,P,LS) are free agents. I feel like they try to re-sign Huber and maybe Clark although he is getting into his late 30's in age. I don't know about Bullock. I feel like budgeting 6.5 million for these 3 spots is a fair number for 2021.
[attachment=793]
Looking at the offense.
Free agents
3 WR's Green, Ross, Erickson
1 OL Redmond
1 TE Carter
1 RB Mixon
along with potential cuts in 2021
Hart 1 million dead money 5.9 million cap savings
Uzomah 1 million dead money 5.25 million cap savings
Bernard 666,667 dead money 4.1 million cap savings
Finley 394,000 dead money 652,000 cap savings
[attachment=794]
Looking at the defense
Free agents
2 DT's Glasgow, and Tupua
1 DE Lawson
2 S Williams and Wilson
3 CB's Alexander, Jackson, Sims
2 LB's Evans and Bynes
In totality, that leaves about 69.5 million of cap space for 15 players. Then, estimating the draft costing them about 8 million filling 6-7 roster spots that that leave 61.5 million for 8-9 players. Removing the 8 million they generally have for contingency that leaves 53.5 million for 8-9 roster spots.
Cincinnati has 3 major decisions on extensions, Green, Mixon, and Jackson III.
I want to start off with an estimated cap number from an extension.
Green Cap number estimate 15M
Mixon Cap number estimate 8-10M
Jackson III spotrac says 3 for 18M but likely 9M+ cap number
So re-signing all 3 could be around 33M-37M. That would leave roughly 20 million in cap space for 5-6 players which is doable but that somewhat limits their spending.
Case for Green : The WR room has 3 free agents. The depth chart looks like Boyd, Higgins, Tate, and Morgan or someone of that ilk. Green is currently reported to be healthy and has incredible talent. A healthy Green in the wide receiver room makes a huge difference in the offense.
Case against Green: Age, Health is major concern, Missed the entire last season etc. Signing Green and him not being a major contributor would be detrimental in 2 ways. First, the obvious cap space usage and second the Bengals likely wouldn't add much more in terms of cap usage to the overall wide receiver group. Also, Green may be a valuable trade chip if he has a Green-like season if he doesn't have the extra years added on.
Case for Mixon: Young, very productive player. Best bet of the 3 to play out his extension at a high level. Excellent security blanket for a young quarterback.
Case against Mixon: Shelf life for running backs are small and team building by paying big money to a running back isn't good team building even with a rookie QB pay scale helping the cap.
Case for Jackson III: The CB room has 3 free agents. Jackson has shown traits of a shutdown corner in the past and put up 2 out of 3 good seasons. The CB depth chart would be Waynes, Phillips, and the 6th CB from 2020 going into the offseason.
Case against Jackson: He was PFF's number 93/112 CB last season with an abysmal grade of 53.6. In fact his grade has plummeted in the last 3 seasons. 90.2 to 73.4 to 53.6. He could be a tough guy to lock up to a reasonable extension. Spotrac's extension valuation is 3yrs/18M for him given last seasons performance and age etc. He is making north of 9 million this season, it could be a nearly impossible sell to offer that as an extension given his current seasons pay. Furthermore, his camp just seen Cincinnati lock up a good but not great cornerback for 3 years/42 million in an overpay.
As far as who is worth extended and at what price is kind of what I am looking at and what impact it would have for the Bengals in free agency to address other position groups on the roster. I thought my research here might be something some of you would be interested in if you are stuck at home etc. Also, these are my estimates so if there is something that seems incorrect feel free to let me know. I will be adding more to this post because I couldn't put more than 3 attachments to it.
RE: Salary cap and extensions - SErebel11 - 05-03-2020
I played around with 2021 a bit. Budgeted in the specialists and Lawson and Tupua. Cut Bernard and Uzomah. I think that makes it easier to see what the extensions does in terms of the totality of the cap. I did this just to look at what they would need roster wise vs the remaining cap space. That would leave the roster at minimum with 14 spots to fill and roughly 6-7 through the draft for around estimated 8M. The remainder would be through free agency.
[attachment=795]
[attachment=796]
Which of those 3 would you extend and how much? I understand guaranteed money vs non guaranteed money is a consideration as well.
RE: Salary cap and extensions - pulses - 05-04-2020
3 and 18 for Jackson
3 and 30 for Mixon.
RE: Salary cap and extensions - fredtoast - 05-04-2020
(05-04-2020, 02:46 AM)pulses Wrote: 3 and 18 for Jackson
3 and 30 for Mixon.
No way Jackson takes that deal after what we paid Waynes.
4 and 30-35 for Mixon. He is very good but not elite. 4 year extension and he is still just turning 27 a month before the final season. It will be MUCH easier to get a deal done with Mixon because he is only making $1.2 million this year. Now that we have the money we really need top get this deal done. I have a feeling he could have a huge season making him much harder to sign next year.
No extension for Green. We have no idea what he will play like this season. Even healthy WRs start to decline at his age. I have been as big a fan of Green as anyone. Love his play as well as his attitude off the field. But would be crazy to give a guy in his position a long term deal.
RE: Salary cap and extensions - pulses - 05-04-2020
(05-04-2020, 10:06 AM)fredtoast Wrote: No way Jackson takes that deal after what we paid Waynes.
4 and 30-35 for Mixon. He is very good but not elite. 4 year extension and he is still just turning 27 a month before the final season. It will be MUCH easier to get a deal done with Mixon because he is only making $1.2 million this year. Now that we have the money we really need top get this deal done. I have a feeling he could have a huge season making him much harder to sign next year.
No extension for Green. We have no idea what he will play like this season. Even healthy WRs start to decline at his age. I have been as big a fan of Green as anyone. Love his play as well as his attitude off the field. But would be crazy to give a guy in his position a long term deal.
We overpaid for Waynes. I'm not sure he is any better than Jackson tbh.
RE: Salary cap and extensions - Mike M (the other one) - 05-04-2020
pay Mixon.
If Jackson doesn't come back to good production. Find or draft another. Same with Green.
RE: Salary cap and extensions - Nicomo Cosca - 05-04-2020
(05-04-2020, 08:06 PM)pulses Wrote: We overpaid for Waynes. I'm not sure he is any better than Jackson tbh.
Unless you’re basing it solely off WJ3’s rookie season, Waynes is definitely better.