(07-27-2020, 08:54 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Last year the Bengals lost 6 one-score games and did not win a single one.

(07-27-2020, 08:54 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Last year the Bengals lost 6 one-score games and did not win a single one. 

(07-27-2020, 08:54 AM)fredtoast Wrote: It might not make much difference in our record this year, but last season we were one of the unluckiest teams in quite some time.  Lots of bad teams lose lots of close games.  That is why they have bad records, but even bad teams often manage to win a close game.  Last year the Bengals lost 6 one-score games and did not win a single one.  They were only the third team in the last 30 years to do that.  I don't know who the other two teams were because I am just quoting this stat from Footballoutsiders.

Obviously you can't count on luck to improve a teams record, but the truth is that since so many NFL games are decided by one score or less luck does come into play a lot.  For example stats have shown that recovering fumbles is based on random chance instead of skill.   There is no consistency in fumble recovery stats to show that one team is bette than others.  A team that leads the league in percentage of fumble recoveries one year is just as likely to finish last the next year as first.

And based on the statistical rule of "regression to the mean" we are due for some better luck this year.

So can I get a four leaf clover and a "WHO-DEY!"

(07-27-2020, 02:20 PM)OrangeTerrain Wrote: This isnt very hard to understand.

The reason we sucked last year was because Dalton was awful when it mattered.

3rd Quarter Rating:  68
4th Quarter Rating:  77  

3rd down and 4-6 yards to go:  25 for 56, 1 TD and 40 Passer Rating

Greater than 2.5 Seconds in a clean pocket: 80 rating (That is so awful, it's hard to comprehend)

On all 3rd Downs of any distance to go: 61.1 Rating

We were bad in close games cause we had one of the 2-3 worst QBs in the league.  Not hard to comprehend.

(07-27-2020, 02:32 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Luck had nothing to do with it.

(07-27-2020, 01:47 PM)J24 Wrote: We also lost 2 games where we outgained the opposing team by over a 100 yards. Last season was a weird year but it happened for the best.

(07-27-2020, 08:54 AM)fredtoast Wrote: It might not make much difference in our record this year, but last season we were one of the unluckiest teams in quite some time.  Lots of bad teams lose lots of close games.  That is why they have bad records, but even bad teams often manage to win a close game.  Last year the Bengals lost 6 one-score games and did not win a single one.  They were only the third team in the last 30 years to do that.  I don't know who the other two teams were because I am just quoting this stat from Footballoutsiders.

Obviously you can't count on luck to improve a teams record, but the truth is that since so many NFL games are decided by one score or less luck does come into play a lot.  For example stats have shown that recovering fumbles is based on random chance instead of skill.   There is no consistency in fumble recovery stats to show that one team is bette than others.  A team that leads the league in percentage of fumble recoveries one year is just as likely to finish last the next year as first.

And based on the statistical rule of "regression to the mean" we are due for some better luck this year.

So can I get a four leaf clover and a "WHO-DEY!"

(07-27-2020, 03:32 PM)fredtoast Wrote: People who think luck plays no part in who wins a football game doesn't understand football.

(07-27-2020, 04:47 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Here are some "close games" we were invloved in, delved into further to paint a better picture of "luck".



Arizona (Final - 26-23)

-Down 23-9 with only 7 minutes left.
-Allowed 266 yards rushing.
-Forced zero turnovers. (Lost turnover battle)
-Only 374 yards  to their 514

Baltimore (Final - 23-17)

-Down 23-10 with only 3 mintues left.
-Allowed 269 yards rushing.
-Only 250 yards of offense to their 497. (2:1)
-Time of possession - 20:18 to 39.42 (2:1)

Oakland (Final - 17-10)

-16 first downs to their 20
-246 yards to their 386
-Time of possession 24:38 to their 35:22

Miami (Final - 38-35)

-Down 35-12 with 11 minuntes left.
-Had to score 3 TD's, coupled with an onsides recovery in the last 6 minutes, to force OT. (We were the lucky ones)
-Allowed Ryan Fotzpatrick throw for 419 yards and 4 TD's. (Please read this line twice)
-Allowed over 500 yards of offense.
-Miami had more yards, more first downs, more time of possession
-Miami had less penalties, and allowed less sacks.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When you look at the final scores of some of these games it's real easy just to point to a final score and pretend like luck prevented us from pulling a few of these games out.  It's easy to just to look at these finals and think we were so close.  But when you dig deeper, or when remember the game, some of these weren't as close as they appear.

The first Baltimore game is a perfect example of this.  They basically ran a bend don't break D and allowed us to march down the field, where he ultimately scored at a meaningless time (1 minute remaining).  They completely dominated that game.

(07-27-2020, 04:47 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Here are some "close games" we were invloved in, delved into further to paint a better picture of "luck".



Arizona (Final - 26-23)

-Down 23-9 with only 7 minutes left.
-Allowed 266 yards rushing.
-Forced zero turnovers. (Lost turnover battle)
-Only 374 yards to their 514

Baltimore (Final - 23-17)

-Down 23-10 with only 3 mintues left.
-Allowed 269 yards rushing.
-Only 250 yards of offense to their 497. (2:1)
-Time of possession - 20:18 to 39.42 (2:1)

Oakland (Final - 17-10)

-16 first downs to their 20
-246 yards to their 386
-Time of possession 24:38 to their 35:22

Miami (Final - 38-35)

-Down 35-12 with 11 minuntes left.
-Had to score 3 TD's, coupled with an onsides recovery in the last 6 minutes, to force OT. (We were the lucky ones)
-Allowed Ryan Fotzpatrick throw for 419 yards and 4 TD's. (Please read this line twice)
-Allowed over 500 yards of offense.
-Miami had more yards, more first downs, more time of possession
-Miami had less penalties, and allowed less sacks.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When you look at the final scores of some of these games it's real easy just to point to a final score and pretend like luck prevented us from pulling a few of these games out. It's easy to just to look at these finals and think we were so close. But when you dig deeper, or when remember the game, some of these weren't as close as they appear.

The first Baltimore game is a perfect example of this. They basically ran a bend don't break D and allowed us to march down the field, where he ultimately scored at a meaningless time (1 minute remaining). They completely dominated that game.

(07-27-2020, 04:23 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: The fact of the matter is, when it's all said and done, luck tends to even itself out.  At some point the law averages come into play and you're left with a fairly accurate measurement of your skill level.

(07-27-2020, 06:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Considering only 2 other teams in the last 30 years did as bad as we did last year in one score games I am saying we are due for some better luck in 2020.