(11-15-2021, 11:08 AM)fredtoast Wrote: The AFC is crazy.  12 teams have 5 wins, and only one of them (Titans) has fewer than 3 losses.  At 5-4 the Bengals are in a 3 way tie for 7th place with the Chargers and Raiders.

We play 3 of these 12 teams over the next 3 weeks (Raiders, Steelers, Chargers) so things will start to shake out, but right now it seems like most of these teams have been just as inconsistent as the Bengals.  So here are some numbers to try and get a feel of how the Bengals stack up.

First tiebreaker is conference record.  Since there are only 6 NFC teams over .500 I assumed some of these AFC teams had piled up their wins against NFC teams, but 10 of the 12 are at least .500 against their AFC opponents.  The Bengals are .600 (3-2) against AFC opponents which is good for 5th place in the conference and tied for first in AFC North.

Point differential is way down the list on tiebreakers, but it is a good measure of how good a team is.  Bengals +33 is fifth best in AFC and #1 in AFC North (Ravens +14, Steelers -8, Browns -9).

Games against teams with winning records is very interesting.  Right now the Bengals (2-1) are one of only 2 teams in the AFC that has a winning record against teams that currently have winning records (Titans 4-1).  The Raiders and Ravens are both .500 at 2-2.  The other 8 AFC teams with at least 5 wins all have losing records against teams that currently have winning records.  In the AFC North the Steelers are 1-3, and the Browns are 1-5.

Still too early and jumbled to make any solid predictions in the AFC.  The Titans are rolling with the best record in the AFC (8-2), a six game winning streak, and a 4-1 record against teams with a winning record.  The Patriots are just 6-4, but they have won 4 in a row and have the second best point differential (+98) in the conference.  They have the #2 scoring defense in the league and #7 scoring offense. The Bills are 6-3 with the largest point differential in the league (+145) and have beaten the Chiefs, but 6 of their 9 games have been against teams that are a combined 11-35.  Other than those three teams I don't see any that I would consider a lock for the postseason.

As bad as the Bengals have looked over the last two weeks they still control their own destiny and they don't look that bad compared to the rest of the AFC.