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+--- Thread: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? (/thread-31968.html)
What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - JaggedJimmyJay - 04-13-2022
I intend to include a poll here, but the function is confusing. Maybe it'll show up after I hit "post". If not, whatever, I can describe the options here.
I am wondering what everyone believes a) should be the driving philosophy of the current offseason, and b) how it might look for the team/franchise to live by that philosophy. Some options:
1) Win Super Bowl LVII at all costs.
This might seem obvious, but I will clarify: this is the truest expression of the "all-in" philosophy, similar to the one the Rams employed (successfully) last season. The future beyond this season is put aside to maximize the push for a Lombardi Trophy right now. This might amount to high-risk moves like trading up in the draft for a major prospect that might tip the scales, or foregoing cap security by making a Stephon Gilmore splash signing (for example), or going for a huge, unexpected trade.
2) Optimize the duration of the perceived "Super Bowl window".
This is more future-oriented and implies less risk than the previous option, but it still amounts to giving philosophical priority to winning a championship (or more). This would be, essentially, the Bengals trying to optimize their overall chances across the rookie contracts period of its offensive core and in the early stages after big financial milestones (e.g., Burrow extension). This doesn't necessarily mean the 2022 NFL season would have the same promise as it might with approach #1, but perhaps it extends/optimizes solid championship opportunities for a longer duration of a few or handful of seasons.
3) Adopt a long-term sustainability approach.
Ensure the roster is built practically and sustainably to establish the right precedents and structures so that it can thrive in consistent playoff contention throughout the life of Burrow's Bengals contracts. This is the most careful approach (at least among those that presume essential players are retained long term like Joe and Chase). Instead of "win the Super Bowl" being a sole, driving focus, the focus is instead on long-term contention and the potential that long-term contention could eventually produce a championship.
4) Do something else entirely.
Here's your "other". Polls should have an "other". I don't know what this might be, but that's the point. Here you are, "other" fans.
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Keep in mind that this question is meant to refer specifically to actions that the Bengals may take in the 2022 offseason. Some of the longer-term options certainly reach beyond that duration, but I am referring to the decisions made in the present and how they can impact future scenarios.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - TheLeonardLeap - 04-14-2022
Win the Super Bowl at all costs. The Bengals have a 2 year window here where their QB is not going to be making $50m/yr and none of their 3 very good WRs are going to be making $25-30m/yr.
In 2024 that changes. Do everything you can to win now.
2024 Bengals FAs
DJ Reader
Tyler Boyd
Chidobe Awuzie
Tee Higgins
Jonah Williams
Logan Wilson
That will happen right when Burrow's cap hit will massively jump up (fair assumption he gets a contract after 2022, 2023 should still be reasonable) and Ja'Marr Chase will become eligible for an extension. After then Burrow and Chase will be combining to make probably $80m/yr. It will be much much harder to put as top-to-bottom talented of a team out there then.
You have a window now, don't squander it, and don't dilute it to try to make it stretch out longer because those windows can close fast regardless. Win in 2022, win in 2023, worry about anything else after then.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - fredtoast - 04-14-2022
(04-14-2022, 01:16 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Win the Super Bowl at all costs. The Bengals have a 2 year window here where their QB is not going to be making $50m/yr and none of their 3 very good WRs are going to be making $25-30m/yr.
In 2024 that changes. Do everything you can to win now.
2024 Bengals FAs
DJ Reader
Tyler Boyd
Chidobe Awuzie
Tee Higgins
Jonah Williams
Logan Wilson
That will happen right when Burrow's cap hit will massively jump up (fair assumption he gets a contract after 2022, 2023 should still be reasonable) and Ja'Marr Chase will become eligible for an extension. After then Burrow and Chase will be combining to make probably $80m/yr. It will be much much harder to put as top-to-bottom talented of a team out there then.
You have a window now, don't squander it, and don't dilute it to try to make it stretch out longer because those windows can close fast regardless. Win in 2022, win in 2023, worry about anything else after then.
I don't agree with Leonard on a lot of stuff, but he is dead on here.
Burrrow may never have 3 WRs this good ever again in his career. And no matter how great a QB is he is still better with 3 great WRS.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - JaggedJimmyJay - 04-14-2022
I might agree with you both. I find the choice very difficult though (not including the sustainability option; I think the Dalton Bengals took that approach). Making risky moves to maximize championship odds NOW feels right, but goodness could it backfire and close the window early. So many have failed where the Rams succeeded.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - phil413 - 04-14-2022
(04-14-2022, 01:16 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Win the Super Bowl at all costs. The Bengals have a 2 year window here where their QB is not going to be making $50m/yr and none of their 3 very good WRs are going to be making $25-30m/yr.
In 2024 that changes. Do everything you can to win now.
2024 Bengals FAs
DJ Reader
Tyler Boyd
Chidobe Awuzie
Tee Higgins
Jonah Williams
Logan Wilson
That will happen right when Burrow's cap hit will massively jump up (fair assumption he gets a contract after 2022, 2023 should still be reasonable) and Ja'Marr Chase will become eligible for an extension. After then Burrow and Chase will be combining to make probably $80m/yr. It will be much much harder to put as top-to-bottom talented of a team out there then.
You have a window now, don't squander it, and don't dilute it to try to make it stretch out longer because those windows can close fast regardless. Win in 2022, win in 2023, worry about anything else after then.
"At all costs" is sort of relative and moves should be case by case. Collins fell into place for Cincy for example, so thankfully they didn't need to pull a blatent "win now" move like the Dolphins did with Armstead. They didn't have to pay some of these pass rushers into their late 30's like some teams did either. Their moves have been to improve the team but not cripple them long term. Cappa was a great win now move, the debate would be if you think Tretter for one year is better than Karras for 3 years for example. That or is it worth it to trade say a 3rd or 4th round pick for a one year rental at LG. That or trading a high pick for a corner like the Rams did for Ramsey, I don't think it's realistic the Bengals trade multiple picks, but for the right corner I'd listen.
I don't agree that if they don't make extreme short-sighted moves then they are automatically squandering a window. They should be looking to re-sign a few of the guys that they can, that make sense long term and continue to build. I'd also be mindful of how they use their picks not only for this year but next year two when defining "win now". For example, they should be willing to deal a mid-late round pick if someone is hurt in preseason or before the trade deadline.
I guess it would be helpful if you gave a few more examples of moves you would make, it would be interesting to see the reactions of those. We all want to win now, but "at all costs" should have it's limits.
Edit: with your Gilmore example, I don't disagree they should look to sign him especially with him not getting market value. They could restructure guys under contract to get more guaranteed money, that will we around like Hubbard or Hendrickson and you get Gilmore for 2 years. No draft picks moved, no long term dead money. Just like Collins, take advantage of the market. I do think there will be some ring chasing descent vets when the market settles after the draft, but worth Gilmore yes they should peruse him even if they want to take a corner early.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - TheLeonardLeap - 04-14-2022
(04-14-2022, 02:54 AM)phil413 Wrote: "At all costs" is sort of relative and moves should be case by case. Collins fell into place for Cincy for example, so thankfully they didn't need to pull a blatent "win now" move like the Dolphins did with Armstead. They didn't have to pay some of these pass rushers into their late 30's like some teams did either. Their moves have been to improve the team but not cripple them long term. Cappa was a great win now move, the debate would be if you think Tretter for one year is better than Karras for 3 years for example. That or is it worth it to trade say a 3rd or 4th round pick for a one year rental at LG. That or trading a high pick for a corner like the Rams did for Ramsey, I don't think it's realistic the Bengals trade multiple picks, but for the right corner I'd listen.
I don't agree that if they don't make extreme short-sighted moves then they are automatically squandering a window. They should be looking to re-sign a few of the guys that they can, that make sense long term and continue to build. I'd also be mindful of how they use their picks not only for this year but next year two when defining "win now". For example, they should be willing to deal a mid-late round pick if someone is hurt in preseason or before the trade deadline.
I guess it would be helpful if you gave a few more examples of moves you would make, it would be interesting to see the reactions of those. We all want to win now, but "at all costs" should have it's limits.
Edit: with your Gilmore example, I don't disagree they should look to sign him especially with him not getting market value. They could restructure guys under contract to get more guaranteed money, that will we around like Hubbard or Hendrickson and you get Gilmore for 2 years. No draft picks moved, no long term dead money. Just like Collins, take advantage of the market. I do think there will be some ring chasing descent vets when the market settles after the draft, but worth Gilmore yes they should peruse him even if they want to take a corner early.
Actually the debate would be letting Carman be the starting LG or signing Tretter so you can move Karras back to guard. Very much so I believe that Tretter and Karras is worlds above Karras and Carman.
You've decided that going all in on winning a Super Bowl means overpaying old and injured guys. It doesn't. Being an aggressive team doesn't mean being incompetent. It means focusing all your resources on making the best possible team you can squeeze in together, even if it means you might take a small hit a couple years from now cap-wise or pick-wise. The Rams traded for Von Miller because they decided they needed another pass rusher on their already talented team. He got 2 sacks in the Super Bowl and they hoisted the Lombardi.
Enjoy trying to continue to build when Burrow and Chase are making $80m/yr or more. You can only "keep building" so long as you keep nailing draft picks. As soon as you stop having a huge source of cheap rookie contract players, your team is going to get worse because you can't afford to keep everyone on veteran contracts.
Right now Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are a combined $19.25m against the cap in 2022. In 2024 if you want those 3 players it will be more like $100m against the cap. Even if the cap rises $50m over the next two years, that's still ~$31m less that you will have to build the rest of the roster. That's more than all three of the OL the Bengals signed this year make yearly combined.
You can only build right now BECAUSE those guys are so cheap right now. Once that's gone, you lose the biggest competitive advantage that exists in the NFL. A franchise QB on a rookie contract. After this offseason a true #1 WR on a rookie contract isn't terrible far behind in advantage.
- - - -
I never made a Gilmore example?
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - ochocincos - 04-14-2022
Bengals should try to optimize this window with Burrow on his cheap contract.
Once Burrow is on his veteran contract, it's going to take a big chunk of cap and make it harder to spend on other veterans.
Given Carr just signed for $40 mill APY, I'd bet Burrow's will be $50+ mill.
He'll end up taking up 20-25% of the cap once that extension is done.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - JaggedJimmyJay - 04-14-2022
I'm a bit surprised there are votes for the long-term sustainability option. I'm not saying that's "incorrect"; this is a challenging question. I gave the Andy Dalton Bengals example before for a case where I think this was the approach and it generally failed (depending upon one's standard, they did consistently perform before the playoffs). However, I think there are other more successful examples. The Packers have probably been in this kind of mindset for a generation, both with Favre and Rodgers, and it has gotten them to exactly that "somewhere along the way we might win a championship" goal.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - fredtoast - 04-14-2022
Coaches, players, and general managers are highly motivated to "win now". Their jobs depend on it and they don't care much about "down the road".
Owners are more motivated to ensure long term success and they don't have to worry about getting fired.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - Nate (formerly eliminate08) - 04-14-2022
(04-14-2022, 01:16 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Win the Super Bowl at all costs. The Bengals have a 2 year window here where their QB is not going to be making $50m/yr and none of their 3 very good WRs are going to be making $25-30m/yr.
In 2024 that changes. Do everything you can to win now.
2024 Bengals FAs
DJ Reader
Tyler Boyd
Chidobe Awuzie
Tee Higgins
Jonah Williams
Logan Wilson
That will happen right when Burrow's cap hit will massively jump up (fair assumption he gets a contract after 2022, 2023 should still be reasonable) and Ja'Marr Chase will become eligible for an extension. After then Burrow and Chase will be combining to make probably $80m/yr. It will be much much harder to put as top-to-bottom talented of a team out there then.
You have a window now, don't squander it, and don't dilute it to try to make it stretch out longer because those windows can close fast regardless. Win in 2022, win in 2023, worry about anything else after then.
What TLL said. We have the players in place right now. It is time to win it all and now we have postseason and SB
experience with a young talented team and just upgraded our main weakness in Free Agency. Now is the time.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - Sled21 - 04-14-2022
Option 2 is the only one that really makes sense when you look at it. Optimize this 2-3 year window while Chase and others are still on rookie deals, and make whatever drafts and trades and FA's we can to be the best team spread out over the next 2-3 years. If we go the #1 route and totally sell out the future to try to attain a Championship during the upcoming season, and Burrow gets a season ending injury, we are sunk for years. Health is the biggest mitigating factor. If you go all in on one chance, nobody better get hurt.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - Interceptor - 04-14-2022
Strike now while the iron is hot. You never know when you will ever get an opportunity like this again.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - J24 - 04-14-2022
Be smart
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - Nate (formerly eliminate08) - 04-14-2022
(04-14-2022, 02:42 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Option 2 is the only one that really makes sense when you look at it. Optimize this 2-3 year window while Chase and others are still on rookie deals, and make whatever drafts and trades and FA's we can to be the best team spread out over the next 2-3 years. If we go the #1 route and totally sell out the future to try to attain a Championship during the upcoming season, and Burrow gets a season ending injury, we are sunk for years. Health is the biggest mitigating factor. If you go all in on one chance, nobody better get hurt.
Definitely understand this. I don't want us to spend like the Rams or Buccaneers did. They had to win their SB's, we need to just
keep a very solid team around Burrow and I think everything will fall into place. Injuries could happen to anyone we bring in and
that could ruin everything. Need to keep the trenches strong on both sides and coach up the rest.
That being said I still think we are in win it all now mode which is awesome.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - phil413 - 04-23-2022
(04-14-2022, 04:29 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Actually the debate would be letting Carman be the starting LG or signing Tretter so you can move Karras back to guard. Very much so I believe that Tretter and Karras is worlds above Karras and Carman.
You've decided that going all in on winning a Super Bowl means overpaying old and injured guys. It doesn't. Being an aggressive team doesn't mean being incompetent. It means focusing all your resources on making the best possible team you can squeeze in together, even if it means you might take a small hit a couple years from now cap-wise or pick-wise. The Rams traded for Von Miller because they decided they needed another pass rusher on their already talented team. He got 2 sacks in the Super Bowl and they hoisted the Lombardi.
Enjoy trying to continue to build when Burrow and Chase are making $80m/yr or more. You can only "keep building" so long as you keep nailing draft picks. As soon as you stop having a huge source of cheap rookie contract players, your team is going to get worse because you can't afford to keep everyone on veteran contracts.
Right now Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are a combined $19.25m against the cap in 2022. In 2024 if you want those 3 players it will be more like $100m against the cap. Even if the cap rises $50m over the next two years, that's still ~$31m less that you will have to build the rest of the roster. That's more than all three of the OL the Bengals signed this year make yearly combined.
You can only build right now BECAUSE those guys are so cheap right now. Once that's gone, you lose the biggest competitive advantage that exists in the NFL. A franchise QB on a rookie contract. After this offseason a true #1 WR on a rookie contract isn't terrible far behind in advantage.
- - - -
I never made a Gilmore example?
I apologize that regardless of being up late that night I blurred the OP's thread with yours and was responding to two threads so my response unfortunately. The Gilmore example the OP gave was one I would have been on board with.
Your Tretter one is one I was behind and would still get behind for sure. I hope they still sign a vet to compete at LG though. I get what you're saying about the window we have, but you have to look at each move individually. My extreme examples were not meant to say that is what you meant...it's to show that at all costs can go too far IMO. At all costs has a cost that could go too far.
You did give me something to work with on Tretter, and I'm fine with giving up a mid round pick for a rental that fills a need at say CB, LG or maybe a DE/UT type. Or you can front end some cut vets after the draft or again I'm all for trading picks in next years draft if need be especially if there is an injury in camp.
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - Nate (formerly eliminate08) - 04-26-2022
(04-23-2022, 01:14 PM)phil413 Wrote: I apologize that regardless of being up late that night I blurred the OP's thread with yours and was responding to two threads so my response unfortunately. The Gilmore example the OP gave was one I would have been on board with.
Your Tretter one is one I was behind and would still get behind for sure. I hope they still sign a vet to compete at LG though. I get what you're saying about the window we have, but you have to look at each move individually. My extreme examples were not meant to say that is what you meant...it's to show that at all costs can go too far IMO. At all costs has a cost that could go too far.
You did give me something to work with on Tretter, and I'm fine with giving up a mid round pick for a rental that fills a need at say CB, LG or maybe a DE/UT type. Or you can front end some cut vets after the draft or again I'm all for trading picks in next years draft if need be especially if there is an injury in camp.
Tretter is still my hope after the Draft if we don't Draft Linderbaum or another Center early.
Bring back Spain or bring in another vet LG to compete with Carman and we are sitting pretty.
We will see what we do, fun times. Only 2 days away from the Draft!
RE: What should the core philosophy of offseason '22 be? - BFritz21 - 04-27-2022
I think it's just improve........ as simple as that.
We don't need to make any big moves or make any big changes besides for improving the offensive line with better players and then maybe change the blocking schemes a bit since they'll be better able to handle it.
With Burrow and Chase, the goal should always be Super Bowl, but the fact that we have Burrow and Chase means that we don't have to look into it as deeply as all of you are.
In terms of your options:
1. We don't need to go all-in but we need to improve the team and make it easier to win games. Draft players to shore-up the weaknesses and then maybe sign one or two mid-level free agents to make us even more competitive when teams start making cuts. Adding depth also helps in that aspect. We might be able to sign a guy or two like Gilmore that want to come here to win a title, but we don't need to sacrifice our future to do it. The salary cap hike coming in 2023 should also be beneficial for us to keep players (although we do need to save room for Burrow).
2 and 3 are basically the same because we should be able to keep the pieces around Burrow and Chase to make us successful.