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The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Soonerpeace - 06-29-2022
Readers had so many questions about the Bengals as the offseason program came to a close and training camp sits off on the horizon we split the mailbag into two parts. In the first part, I answered questions about Joe Mixon’s usage, Tee Higgins’ future, breakout players, any potential for Odell Beckham Jr. in stripes and realistic expectations for the offensive line.
Here you are curious about the potential for one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL, camp battles, August extension candidates and my dream Super Bowl halftime show.
Thanks for all the questions, everybody.
Let’s go.
What are the chances of the Bengals being a top-five defense and offense this year? — Vincent Lewis
We discussed this on “Hear That Podcast Growlin’” last week, but I wanted to expound upon that conversation here.
The quick answer is that the chances are minuscule. That’s not a shot at the Bengals, their potential or the quality of players on both sides. It’s just history.
I used Football Outsiders DVOA as the metric for judging a top-five ranking.
Only three seasons over the last five years have produced a team ranking in the top five in offense and defense. That’s 160 individual seasons, with three hitting the criteria. That’s 1.9 percent.
This prompted me to expand the criteria to just include an offense and defense in the top quarter of the league. That ended up including 10 more seasons on top of the other three.
Keep in mind four of the 13 seasons landed in the Super Bowl and all produced double-digit wins.
DVOA ranking last five years (O/D top 8)
YEAR TEAM OFF DEF RECORD PLAYOFFS
2020
Tampa Bay
3
5
11-5
SB win
2019
Baltimore
1
5
14-2
Divisional
2017
Minnesota
5
1
11-5
NFCCG
2021
Dallas
6
2
12-5
Wild-card
2021
Rams
8
5
12-5
SB win
2021
San Francisco
5
7
10-7
NFCCG
2020
New Orleans
7
2
12-4
Divisional
2019
New Orleans
4
8
13-3
Wild-card
2019
San Francisco
7
2
13-3
SB loss
2018
New Orleans
4
8
13-3
NFCCG
2017
New Orleans
2
6
11-5
Divisional
2017
Rams
6
7
11-5
Wild-card
2017
Philadelphia
7
5
13-3
SB win
Not only have there only been 13 seasons with offense and defense in the top quarter, but only the 2019 Ravens did it in the AFC. With the AFC being even harder and the Bengals schedule projecting to be among the most difficult, those are some long odds to think they could pull this off.
Watch the offense rise to the top five, however, and that’s the recipe for success that would put the Bengals right back in the mix.
All of this is a long way to warn you to temper expectations, and just because both sides of the ball fail to improve dramatically from where it finished last year doesn’t mean anything has gone wrong.
Center Ted Karras (Katie Stratman / USA Today)
Will the run game or pass game improve more because of the O-line improvements? I think Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow both have a chance to be top five at their positions. — Zachary Popp
This one could probably go either way, but I would lean toward the running game. First off, over the last two seasons, La’el Collins has ranked as one of the best run-blocking offensive linemen in football.
He ranked fifth in run-block grade in 2019 and last year eighth among every offensive lineman. The idea of him plowing the back side of the wide zone with Mixon’s absurd ability to cut back with power coming off his blocks provides a dangerous weapon for the running game.
Alex Cappa and Ted Karras should serve as upgrades there as well, with the entire combination fitting into offensive line coach Frank Pollack’s glass-eating vision for the ground game.
A few advanced stats to ponder when thinking about the potential spurt for Mixon with more consistent run blockers in front of him. The Bengals ranked 31st in the NFL last year in yards before contact per rush (0.86). The league average was 1.49.
The Bengals also ranked fifth in yards after contact per rush (3.14). The average was 2.83.
If Cincinnati could continue to make as many yards after first contact while avoiding so many of the hits in the backfield and other drive-killers that led to such an awful before-contact average, they could plop an extra half yard onto every run.
An offense that has Burrow at quarterback and averages 4.5 yards per carry on the ground will run it up all season long. They become nearly unstoppable.
Finally, the Bengals ranked 26th in the league in percentage of third-down runs that produced a first down (44.2 percent). The league average was 52.8 percent and the Buccaneers led the NFL at 71.4 percent.
Short yardage has been a point of emphasis and analysis this offseason by offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and the coaching staff. Finding ways for those runs to be better even just to a league-average level, which could naturally be the case with more dynamic run blockers up front, could extend 8 percent more drives during the year.
That’s significant.
Meanwhile, the passing offense will improve with better protection. Giving Burrow more time will only allow for him to dissect the intermediate and deep edges more. But he already came off a year when he led the league in yards per attempt and PFF grade. There’s only so much efficiency you can squeeze out of the position. Fewer sacks will go a long way in creating more opportunities, but there is more room for significant improvement in the running game, and the hosses coming to town are built to take advantage.
What, if any, training camp position battles are expected? — Jeff Smith
I’ll rattle off the battle for starting positions in order of importance, as I see them.
1. Left guard: Jackson Carman versus Cordell Volson. Carman holds the edge with a year of experience, but if he can’t live up to expectations of how to be a pro on and off the field, Volson will be there to scoop it up. Volson comes with the reputation for a relentless work ethic and team-centric attitude that will play in Cincinnati. The pads will tell the story come August.
2. Cornerback: Eli Apple versus Cam Taylor-Britt. This one weighs heavily in favor of Apple for the way he played last year and making good impressions on the coaches for the way he responded to the pressure placed upon him this offseason. Taylor-Britt could be great and maybe he takes out Apple by midseason even if he can’t do it in camp, but the Bengals have eyes on him as a cornerback of the future. Just a matter of when the future will start for him.
3. Punter: Kevin Huber versus Drue Chrisman. Will have to work on my stopwatch skills to judge training camp hang time. It’s no secret, the Bengals were hunting punters during the draft but didn’t see the one or two they liked fall far enough down the draft board. Chrisman and Huber are here and this could come down to Chrisman’s ability to be a holder. If he can do that flawlessly, then his younger, stronger leg could be enough to end the illustrious career of the Cincinnati hero, Huber, tied for the most games played in franchise history.
Vonn Bell (Joseph Maiorana / USA Today)
Bengals tend to sign players to extensions around August. Could you see them extending Germaine Pratt or Vonn Bell? — Maan Aboulhosn
Neither is likely. The Bell idea would be interesting strictly because of his role as a leader and quality starter at his position. Also, you wouldn’t be talking about breaking the bank. Perhaps a one- or two-year extension of the current deal that averages $6 million per year.
Two problems work against him. Bell will turn 28 in December. The Bengals are rarely willing to sign up for third-contract years that could flow into the 30s. You could make an argument for Bell as an exception if he were willing to do two years and $12 million added on, but then there’s the other problem. Cincinnati drafted two safeties in April, not just one. In an ideal world for them, Dax Hill and Tycen Anderson are the starters next year at safety. That might not come to fruition, but I imagine the Bengals would at least like to see the two play before making any decisions to keep an older, more expensive player at their position.
As for Pratt, I don’t think they view him as an extension candidate right now. It would behoove both sides for Pratt to put together a fantastic contract year and run his value up. If he can build on the momentum of his performance in the playoffs and take another step, then the Bengals will work on keeping him home.
What past Super Bowl halftime show would you have pulled a Clark Harris/Evan McPherson for? Or what band that hasn’t played the Super Bowl would you do the same? — Sam Gormley
Well, there was one that I would have done if the NFL didn’t screw it up so royally. Outkast should have been the halftime show in Atlanta in 2019. The league instead put Maroon 5 up there, despite being in the center of Southern hip-hop. They put Big Boi on the card late after taking a lot of heat for the decision and he ended up stealing the show rolling out in a Cadillac wearing a giant fur coat.
Outkast holds it down as my favorite concert I’ve ever attended. Seeing them reunite once again would be a thrill I would miss Super Bowl halftime for, without question, and I would have tried to sneak onto the field in Atlanta if the NFL hadn’t botched it.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Soonerpeace - 06-29-2022
Finally, the Bengals ranked 26th in the league in percentage of third-down runs that produced a first down (44.2 percent). The league average was 52.8 percent and the Buccaneers led the NFL at 71.4 percent.
Boy if this doesn’t tell the tale on struggles in play calling.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - TheLeonardLeap - 06-29-2022
(06-29-2022, 12:56 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Finally, the Bengals ranked 26th in the league in percentage of third-down runs that produced a first down (44.2 percent). The league average was 52.8 percent and the Buccaneers led the NFL at 71.4 percent.
Boy if this doesn’t tell the tale on struggles in play calling.
The Superbowl with Perine, twice, is certainly the time to turn around that 26th ranking.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - bengalfan74 - 06-29-2022
Yeah having both units in the top 5 is just nigh on impossible.
Having the offense finish in top 5 which I believe is realistic. And having the D just come in at 15 perhaps a touch higher is still gonna be a hell of a team.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Nate (formerly eliminate08) - 06-29-2022
(06-29-2022, 01:25 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yeah having both units in the top 5 is just nigh on impossible.
Having the offense finish in top 5 which I believe is realistic. And having the D just come in at 15 perhaps a touch higher is still gonna be a hell of a team.
With the revamped OL, Burrow and these weapons staying reasonably healthy we could be the best Offense in the NFL this
season. #1 running game is my bet with Cappa, Karras and La'el Collins making some big holes for Mixon, Evans and Perine.
Call me a homer.
The Defense will benefit if the running game is decent as they will be fresh. Injuries are the only thing that could hold this team
back in my opinion. Our depth is really the only question, I think we could be a top 5 Offense and a top 10 Defense if we stay
healthy. I think I am a bit higher on our Defense than most, I loved how they came around in the Playoffs and they are good at
stopping the run and brought back BJ Hill which is bigger than some might acknowledge. Great run stopper along with DJ who
got healthy last season.
DJ Reader completely blew up the Titans in the Divisional round and with Hendrickson, Hubbard, Ossai and company we can
get after the passer once we stop the run. We will see, but I don't find both being top 5 as impossible. Top 10 D anyways I
could find likely with Lou finally having his personnel in place and the young players growing into what they do best in Lou's
system.
Nice thread BTW Soonerpeace.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Go Cards - 06-29-2022
(06-29-2022, 12:56 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Finally, the Bengals ranked 26th in the league in percentage of third-down runs that produced a first down (44.2 percent). The league average was 52.8 percent and the Buccaneers led the NFL at 71.4 percent.
Boy if this doesn’t tell the tale on struggles in play calling.
Agree with original post
yet believe poor O-line play weighed in heavily on the 3rd down success rate as well.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Go Cards - 06-29-2022
(06-29-2022, 01:07 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Superbowl with Perine, twice, is certainly the time to turn around that 26th ranking.
Know this is not the play you're referring to but still will never get why Perine was in instead of Mixon on last play of SB.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Soonerpeace - 06-29-2022
(06-29-2022, 08:24 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Know this is not the play you're referring to but still will never get why Perine was in instead of Mixon on last play of SB.
They fully explained it as Taylor is concentrating on the play call and the running backs coach suggested it but there not time to change it. Taylor as our premier back he should have been in there. What he’s doing is covering for the running backs coach and why the staff loves him.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - fredtoast - 06-29-2022
(06-29-2022, 12:53 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Bengals tend to sign players to extensions around August. Could you see them extending Germaine Pratt or Vonn Bell? — Maan Aboulhosn
Neither is likely. The Bell idea would be interesting strictly because of his role as a leader and quality starter at his position. Also, you wouldn’t be talking about breaking the bank. Perhaps a one- or two-year extension of the current deal that averages $6 million per year.
Two problems work against him. Bell will turn 28 in December. The Bengals are rarely willing to sign up for third-contract years that could flow into the 30s. You could make an argument for Bell as an exception if he were willing to do two years and $12 million added on, but then there’s the other problem. Cincinnati drafted two safeties in April, not just one. In an ideal world for them, Dax Hill and Tycen Anderson are the starters next year at safety. That might not come to fruition, but I imagine the Bengals would at least like to see the two play before making any decisions to keep an older, more expensive player at their position.
This doesn't make any sense to me. for 2 reasons.
1. I like Tycen Anderson, but I don't think a championship level team should be counting on a 5th round pick to start and play at a championship level in just his second year. I know everyone has a list of fifth round players who became stars, but over the years the numbers prove that it is highly unlikely that a 5th round pick will become a good starter. I understand the idea of wanting to see how good Anderson is, but if he does not pan out then we would be forced to pay Bell full market value instead of getting him with the "extension security" discount price.
2. Bell is 27. I agree that they we should not give him a big long-term deal, but he has become a leader on the defense and I would gladly give him a 3 year extension if he would sign for a reasonable amount. Most players will take less per year for the added security of not having to worry about getting injured in the last year of their current contract. A three year extension would be right on line with what a lot of Bengals have gotten recently. That would mean he was under contract through the '25 season, and he would not turn 31 until late that season (December). La'el Collins is almost a year-and-a-half older than Bell and he is signed through '24. Mike Hilton is almost a full year older and he is also signed through '24. Alex Cappa is just 46 days younger than Bell and he is signed through '25. Sam Hubbard is only 6 months younger than Bell and he is also signed through '25.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Soonerpeace - 06-29-2022
(06-29-2022, 11:39 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This doesn't make any sense to me. for 2 reasons.
1. I like Tycen Anderson, but I don't think a championship level team should be counting on a 5th round pick to start and play at a championship level in just his second year. I know everyone has a list of fifth round players who became stars, but over the years the numbers prove that it is highly unlikely that a 5th round pick will become a good starter. I understand the idea of wanting to see how good Anderson is, but if he does not pan out then we would be forced to pay Bell full market value instead of getting him with the "extension security" discount price.
2. Bell is 27. I agree that they we should not give him a big long-term deal, but he has become a leader on the defense and I would gladly give him a 3 year extension if he would sign for a reasonable amount. Most players will take less per year for the added security of not having to worry about getting injured in the last year of their current contract. A three year extension would be right on line with what a lot of Bengals have gotten recently. That would mean he was under contract through the '25 season, and he would not turn 31 until late that season (December). La'el Collins is almost a year-and-a-half older than Bell and he is signed through '24. Mike Hilton is almost a full year older and he is also signed through '24. Alex Cappa is just 46 days younger than Bell and he is signed through '25. Sam Hubbard is only 6 months younger than Bell and he is also signed through '25.
I’m not Paul Dehner …. Tweet him unless he’s already blocked you
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - fredtoast - 06-29-2022
(06-29-2022, 11:53 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I’m not Paul Dehner …. Tweet him unless he’s already blocked you
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Soonerpeace - 06-30-2022
(06-29-2022, 11:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote:
Read the title good grief. It’s Paul Dehner of the Atketic’s mailbag. I swear Fred you didn’t take your nap today did you?
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Soonerpeace - 06-30-2022
(06-29-2022, 11:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote:
I apologize I will stop embarrassing you from now on
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - fredtoast - 06-30-2022
(06-29-2022, 11:53 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I’m not Paul Dehner …. Tweet him unless he’s already blocked you
(06-30-2022, 12:02 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Read the title good grief. It’s Paul Dehner of the Atketic’s mailbag. I swear Fred you didn’t take your nap today did you?
(06-30-2022, 12:13 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I apologize I will stop embarrassing you from now on
Sorry. I thought this was one of those threads where members were allowed to make posts with their opinion about the content.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Wyche'sWarrior - 06-30-2022
I think I'd extend Bell. As Fred mentioned, he's become a leader on defense. For sentimental and selfish reasons, he also laid Shit Schuster out against Pitt, and that really seemed to turn the tide not only in that game, but for the Zac Taylor era. It was a tone setter. He balled out that night and others followed suit.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - Nate (formerly eliminate08) - 06-30-2022
(06-30-2022, 07:48 AM)Wyche Wrote: I think I'd extend Bell. As Fred mentioned, he's become a leader on defense. For sentimental and selfish reasons, he also laid Shit Schuster out against Pitt, and that really seemed to turn the tide not only in that game, but for the Zac Taylor era. It was a tone setter. He balled out that night and others followed suit.
Yes, Von is one of our leaders as well and will be much cheaper to extend than Bates.
RE: The Athletic … Mailbag Part 2 - grampahol - 07-07-2022
You just know you're old when 30 is getting too old.. Now me on the other hand..I'll be 13 on the 22nd.. errrr..plus 50..or some weird number like that..