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+--- Thread: Nick Senzel, coming around? (/thread-35640.html)
Nick Senzel, coming around? - bengalfan74 - 05-02-2023
It seems like forever ago that a bunch of people were touting Nick as the Reds savior. The next Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, whoever you want to bring up?
And the still kinda young man has just been snake bit. And he's never even really come close to being "the guy" that takes the team on his shoulders.
He started off this season pretty much same old Nick missed the first 10 or 12 games on DL. Then when he started playing he was cold as ice. But over the last several games he's raised his average to .310 hit three HR's and driven in 12. Earning NL player of the week.
Can he really turn his basically awful career around and at least be considered good? Or is this just fools gold?
RE: Nick Senzel, coming around? - KillerGoose - 05-02-2023
(05-02-2023, 01:02 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: It seems like forever ago that a bunch of people were touting Nick as the Reds savior. The next Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, whoever you want to bring up?
And the still kinda young man has just been snake bit. And he's never even really come close to being "the guy" that takes the team on his shoulders.
He started off this season pretty much same old Nick missed the first 10 or 12 games on DL. Then when he started playing he was cold as ice. But over the last several games he's raised his average to .310 hit three HR's and driven in 12. Earning NL player of the week.
Can he really turn his basically awful career around and at least be considered good? Or is this just fools gold?
I think we have a lot of data on Senzel already that suggests he is what he is at this point. He is still young at 27, but he has had nearly 1000 at bats and has proven over those at bats that he is nothing but a below average hitter. It's definitely not impossible, but is probably unlikely that he is going to see such a sudden improvement. My guess is that by season end has regressed down to an OPS+ of 80-ish, batting somewhere around .240.
Would love to be wrong there and see him break out.
RE: Nick Senzel, coming around? - TheLeonardLeap - 05-02-2023
(05-02-2023, 04:11 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I think we have a lot of data on Senzel already that suggests he is what he is at this point. He is still young at 27, but he has had nearly 1000 at bats and has proven over those at bats that he is nothing but a below average hitter. It's definitely not impossible, but is probably unlikely that he is going to see such a sudden improvement. My guess is that by season end has regressed down to an OPS+ of 80-ish, batting somewhere around .240.
Would love to be wrong there and see him break out.
I think you're right that some regression will come and he ends up closer to the back of his card...
Career BABIP: .291
2022 BABIP: .341
Career HR/FB: 9.1%
2022 HR/FB: 16.7%
He's 27, but is in his age 28 season, neither of which are young. I think we're just still dealing with a small sample size this season and he had a great 6 game stretch. Hope he keeps it up, but 162 games generally does a pretty good job in the end of proving if you've actually gotten better or just had a small hot streak early on.
RE: Nick Senzel, coming around? - bengalfan74 - 05-02-2023
(05-02-2023, 04:11 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I think we have a lot of data on Senzel already that suggests he is what he is at this point. He is still young at 27, but he has had nearly 1000 at bats and has proven over those at bats that he is nothing but a below average hitter. It's definitely not impossible, but is probably unlikely that he is going to see such a sudden improvement. My guess is that by season end has regressed down to an OPS+ of 80-ish, batting somewhere around .240.
Would love to be wrong there and see him break out.
Oh I have serious doubts myself. But man how great it would be for him and the Reds/fans if he could even turn into "decent" player.
.285avg. 25 Hr's 90 RBI's 20 SB's or something? And of course he'd have to not go back on the DL all the time. As rough as I've been on him last couple of seasons. I'm rooting for him.
RE: Nick Senzel, coming around? - KillerGoose - 05-02-2023
(05-02-2023, 04:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I think you're right that some regression will come and he ends up closer to the back of his card...
Career BABIP: .291
2022 BABIP: .341
Career HR/FB: 9.1%
2022 HR/FB: 16.7%
He's 27, but is in his age 28 season, neither of which are young. I think we're just still dealing with a small sample size this season and he had a great 6 game stretch. Hope he keeps it up, but 162 games generally does a pretty good job in the end of proving if you've actually gotten better or just had a small hot streak early on.
Yep, absolutely. One good thing about baseballs long ass season is that you normally have a really good idea of who is actually good or not by season end.
RE: Nick Senzel, coming around? - guyofthetiger - 05-02-2023
I like the fact that he's played well and was named player of the week. Too soon to see if this holds up or not. I just want the Reds to win.
RE: Nick Senzel, coming around? - grampahol - 05-03-2023
HEY! Maybe the baseball cards I bought for my grandkids of Nick Senzel's rookie season will be worth something someday. See what happens when you hold your breath waiting for it?
Personally I'd love the kid to turn things around, stay healthy and become the badass we all thought he was gonna be, but I have better things to hold my breath about like becoming 40 years younger all of a sudden, but then I couldn't take afternoon naps whenever I damned well please without being called the lazy bum I am..
RE: Nick Senzel, coming around? - TheLeonardLeap - 05-04-2023
(05-02-2023, 04:46 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Oh I have serious doubts myself. But man how great it would be for him and the Reds/fans if he could even turn into "decent" player.
.285avg. 25 Hr's 90 RBI's 20 SB's or something? And of course he'd have to not go back on the DL all the time. As rough as I've been on him last couple of seasons. I'm rooting for him.
Only 23 players hit .285+ last year.
Only 45 players hit 25+ last year.
Only 21 players hit 90+ RBIs last year.
Only 24 players had 20+ SBs last year.
I know the shift being limited and the larger bases are expected to bring up BAs and SBs, which should bring more opportunities for RBI, but still, that list all combined onto one player (a premium defensive position like CF no less) is a lot better than a "decent" player.
Last year Julio Rodriguez playing CF (132 games) hit .284, had 28 HR, 75 RBI, 25 SB. That won RoY, made him an All-Star, gave him a Silver Slugger, and he finished 7th in MVP voting.