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+--- Thread: What causes decline in player performance? (/thread-36055.html)
What causes decline in player performance? - ochocincos - 08-02-2023
Just a few years ago, we were all excited for Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson.
Stephenson 2021-2022 was batting ~.300 and OPS ~.800-.850
However, this season he's down to .251 BA and .701 OPS.
India is similar:
2021 (rookie year) India had a .269 BA and .835 OPS. Won ROY.
Since then, he's batted ~.250 and under .750 OPS.
We see this happen with players all the time, especially younger players.
Since I did not grow up playing baseball, I am curious as to how players end up declining as they get more experience in the majors.
Is it because enough tape is now out there where pitchers/hitters are learning how to attack them?
Is it they are trying new things with hitting/pitching but it's just not working out as expected?
This is my frustration with counting on all these young guys and not making trades for proven veterans sometimes, as these good rookie seasons might not end up being reproduced in the next 2-3 years when all is said and done.
RE: What causes decline in player performance? - CJD - 08-02-2023
I think there are a few different reasons and they won't be the same for every player.
1. Pitcher Familiarity.
A player can take the league by storm for as much as a year because other teams won't know their weaknesses and how to exploit them. Most major league players have been in the league for at least a year or two, so they have shown their tendencies (their hot and cold spots in the strikezone, their pitch preferences, their likelihood to take a strike vs being a free swinger etc). As pitching adjusts to a player, they need to re-adjust, which causes the pitching to re-adjust and that is the dance of baseball.
When you're a rookie, most major league teams will not have comprehensive data on your minor league career, so they will be pitching to you mostly in the dark. This could allow a rookie to have a hot month or even a hot season to start out if they are able to capitalize on this lack of familiarity.
But once your tendencies are out there, you need to learn to react to the pitching's changes to you. This is the biggest problem that Elly is facing right now. In his first month in the majors, he was lighting up pitchers with a .320+ BA etc, but now opposing teams are aware that he will swing at shit in the dirt and he has been cold ever since.
Now, Elly needs to adjust. He has not adjusted yet (as evidenced by his 3 Ks last night, 1 of which was a 3 pitch K, 1 a 4 pitch K and the 3rd a 5 pitch K, none of which had fouls on 2 strikes). Time will tell if he does adjust. Aristides Aquino was incapable of adjusting and that's why he was driven out of the league.
2. Injuries
Stephenson is just one year removed from a broken collarbone which may still be affecting his swinging and throwing negatively. India is less than one year removed from an injury that could have cost him his calf muscle. There is no defined timetable for when a player is 100% back from any given injury. It varies person to person. I generally consider any injury to arms, shoulders or hands to be a 2 year recovery time before a player is back to their former abilities. 1 year to recover from the injury, and 1 year to rebuild strength, reflexes, "feel for the game" and comfortability etc.
3. Motivation
This may not apply to India or Stephenson. It's more of a mental state than anything you can diagnose but as players play, get injured, lose more games than they had in their entire career up to that point, motivation may become an issue. Humans aren't machines and if, for example, a player is rumored to be traded and a team's fans seem to be happy about that possibility, that could really shake a player's motivation.
Quote:It's not a good feeling,” India said. “I give a lot to this organization, a lot to this team. I've played for this team in situations where I shouldn't have been playing, and done a lot. I've put my heart and my body on the line for this team.
4. Age
This doesn't apply to India or Stephenson, but father time is undefeated.
RE: What causes decline in player performance? - bengalfan74 - 08-02-2023
(08-02-2023, 11:51 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Just a few years ago, we were all excited for Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson.
Stephenson 2021-2022 was batting ~.300 and OPS ~.800-.850
However, this season he's down to .251 BA and .701 OPS.
India is similar:
2021 (rookie year) India had a .269 BA and .835 OPS. Won ROY.
Since then, he's batted ~.250 and under .750 OPS.
We see this happen with players all the time, especially younger players.
Since I did not grow up playing baseball, I am curious as to how players end up declining as they get more experience in the majors.
Is it because enough tape is now out there where pitchers/hitters are learning how to attack them?
Is it they are trying new things with hitting/pitching but it's just not working out as expected?
This is my frustration with counting on all these young guys and not making trades for proven veterans sometimes, as these good rookie seasons might not end up being reproduced in the next 2-3 years when all is said and done.
It's an adjustment and readjustment thing.
When a player is a rookie, hasn't been seen by a lot of ML pitchers, not a lot of film. The batter has a bit of an advantage. Once that batter has been playing for several months a lot of the league has seen him, there's a lot of film. The pitcher starts having the advantage.
Now the batter has to adjust his hitting/swinging and adapt to the major leagues. And he has to keep adjusting.
Some never really make the leap in adjusting. India as an example is on the cusp. Can he adjust or is he going to drift back into the utility player realm?
RE: What causes decline in player performance? - Forever Spinning Vinyl - 08-02-2023
Stephenson's strength was going opposite field . . . he seems to have abandoned that approach.