(08-16-2023, 02:29 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The rotation next year is looking to be (not necessarily in this order):
Hunter Greene
Graham Ashcraft
Andrew Abbott
Nick Lodolo
Brandon Williamson

Connor Phillips in the wings.

Is the current batch of pitchers good enough that the Reds don't need to try to bring in a good SP to round out their rotation?
Could they instead look to just boost their bullpen and maybe one more good, reliable hitter?

(08-16-2023, 11:49 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: I think they need 2-3 guys beyond what they decide their 5-man rotation will be. Assuming Greene ® Abbott (L)  Ashcraft ® Lodolo (L) and Williamson (L). Lively as the spot starter / long relief. That is a lefty-heavy rotation but they could alternate Lively in there occasionally I guess if they wanted. But they need to cover their asses incase of injury rather than depend on AAA call ups / guys who may not be ready. Especially if they intend to contend. Could really use a righty vet like Sonny Gray, who has had success here. Or look at a guy who has good career groundball rates.

(08-21-2023, 10:10 PM)samhain Wrote: They need a Bronson Arroyo/Wade Miley style inning eater.  Someone who can be good more than he's bad and go deep into games.  Preferably a veteran.  A guy like that might help protect the pen from melting down from overuse like they are right now.  

Also, I'd invest in another high end late inning guy.  Someone to lock up a game in 7 innings like Milwaukee used to have with Williams and Hader.  

These guys might not be "cheap" but they are going to be a lot more affordable than high end starters.  With the FO being as concerned with money as they are, I think these are the best investments.  High end starters are a huge crapshoot.  Sheeling out big money to them is always a big risk for a team that identifies as broke such as the Reds.

(08-16-2023, 02:29 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The rotation next year is looking to be (not necessarily in this order):
Hunter Greene
Graham Ashcraft
Andrew Abbott
Nick Lodolo
Brandon Williamson

Connor Phillips in the wings.

Is the current batch of pitchers good enough that the Reds don't need to try to bring in a good SP to round out their rotation?
Could they instead look to just boost their bullpen and maybe one more good, reliable hitter?

(08-23-2023, 07:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That's a lot of meh.

Hunter Greene: Career 99 OPS+
Graham Ashcraft: Career 93 OPS+
Andrew Abbott: Career 155 OPS+ (dropping quickly because of hitting the rookie wall, but still legit)
Nick Lodolo: Career 103 OPS+
Brandon Williamson: Career 103 OPS+

Connor Phillips: WHIP over 1.500 in AA and AAA

Abbott seems like he could be a guy, but other than him you have a bunch of #4/#5 types. You need at least 3 guys who you can look at and say "yes, I can put those three into a postseason series and have a good chance to win". They have 1 in Abbott, and the rest of them would be that 4th guy who you have in your postseason rotation mostly to give the other 3 guys the extra day of rest while hopefully keeping you in the game.

(08-23-2023, 07:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That's a lot of meh.

Hunter Greene: Career 99 OPS+
Graham Ashcraft: Career 93 OPS+
Andrew Abbott: Career 155 OPS+ (dropping quickly because of hitting the rookie wall, but still legit)
Nick Lodolo: Career 103 OPS+
Brandon Williamson: Career 103 OPS+

Connor Phillips: WHIP over 1.500 in AA and AAA

Abbott seems like he could be a guy, but other than him you have a bunch of #4/#5 types. You need at least 3 guys who you can look at and say "yes, I can put those three into a postseason series and have a good chance to win". They have 1 in Abbott, and the rest of them would be that 4th guy who you have in your postseason rotation mostly to give the other 3 guys the extra day of rest while hopefully keeping you in the game.

Plus the fact is they're probably going to need to have a 6 man rotation in 2024 because of workloads....

Greene has never thrown 135 innings in a season before.
Ashcraft is currently at a career high 134 innings right now.
Abbott absolutely hit a wall a couple starts ago and his ~140 innings pitched this year is by far his career high.
Lodolo threw a career high 116 innings last year and just 41.2 innings this year.
Williamson is at a career high 121.2 innings this year.

Even if we assume all of them stay healthy (big assumption) and only average 5 innings per start (would be a huge letdown) that's still 810 innings over 162 games, divided by 5 starters is 160 innings per pitcher. Obviously some napkin math, but even only expecting just 5 innings per start would crush a lot of these guys career highs. If we look at 6 innings per start instead it's a little over 194 innings each. So somewhere between 160-194, which would likely be an unreasonable increase in workload from one year to another. If you are expecting/hoping for a deep postseason run, that will add another 20-30 innings for 4 of them that they need to still be capable of being good for.

They need a 6th guy in the rotation to eat innings, and also one of those 4 non-Abbott guys needs to be replaced with someone proven legit so that we're only relying on 1 guy out of the pool of 4 to become a 15-20% above league average starter next year rather than 2 out of 4 which would be an unreasonable expectation.

(08-24-2023, 09:39 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I hate to break it to you, but the Reds will never actually pay for a true bona fide ace.
You're looking at $25+ mill APY for a true ace SP.
If the Reds are going to have an ace, it will have to be someone who is brought in from the minors and plays here before hitting FA.

(08-24-2023, 09:39 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I hate to break it to you, but the Reds will never actually pay for a true bona fide ace.
You're looking at $25+ mill APY for a true ace SP.
If the Reds are going to have an ace, it will have to be someone who is brought in from the minors and plays here before hitting FA.

(08-24-2023, 11:39 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Don't need a true bonafide ace. Just need to add a legit proven #2-#3. An addition similar to when they added Sonny Gray or Mat Latos. Then need to hope for one of the other guys they have already to develop into one next year to be their third.

Then add a #4-#5 type that you can rely on to eat some innings (similar to the Tanner Roark addition) for a 6 man rotation.

(08-24-2023, 10:59 AM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: Hunter Greene shoulda stayed a shortstop. Or they should have kept him in the minors until he developed an offspeed “out” pitch he can throw comfortably and consistently. Right now, in my opinion, HG is a glorified bullpen arm masquerading as a starting pitcher.

(08-24-2023, 12:20 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Given Greene is only 24 years old, I think there's still time to try him as a SP for the next couple years before considering pushing him to the BP.
Prior to his injury, Greene allowed only 4+ runs three times across 14 starts.
In those 11 instances where he's allowed 3 runs or less, he's averaging 5.17 innings per start.

I know everyone wants a pitcher who always goes 6-7 innings a game, but 5-6 seems to becoming more of the norm nowadays.
And Greene is right in that 5-6 window.

With all that said, I was surprised to see him given that new contract when he hasn't really proven much yet.
I thought they would have gone another couple years before considering that.
Maybe they were so optimistic about him that they wanted to try to strike while the price was lower.

(08-24-2023, 12:30 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: I don’t expect the guy to go 6+ consistently (yet. Which is what you typically want out of your supposed #1) until he can build TO that, but my issue w Greene is all the HR the guy gives up. The fact they brought him up without really, truly working on his change up and getting some consistent movement on that fastball in the minors and THEN paying him, albeit a bargain IF he pans out, all that money was flat out irresponsible of this front office. At this point, he is a one trick pony, and MLB hitters can catch up to a fastball. If they didn’t need innings out of him right now to relieve this pitching staff, he would be my long relief guy until he develops those non-fastball pitches.

(08-24-2023, 12:39 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I completely get wanting someone who doesn't have to rely on their fastball so much, but the fastball is what made him appealing.
He's going to use it more because it's so good.

He reminds me somewhat of Chapman, only he's able to pitch deeper into games.
Remember, Chapman was being talked about for a brief time as a potential starting option.
They gave up on that possibility quickly when they realized he can't go more than once through and order and was typically getting rocked after just 2-3 innings.

(08-24-2023, 12:52 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: If memory serves me though, Chapman had a nice slider and change up he could throw to keep hitters off balance. He didn’t use them nearly as often as the fastball, but they were effective and it kept his fastball effective. Greene doesn’t have that, and he’s getting tattooed due to it, in my opinion.

Sort of side thought / question here but why aren’t we drafting, developing, and signing pitchers better suited for GABP? Instead of the high strikeout guys, why aren’t we looking for more “career groundball rate” guys? Why aren’t we working with players like Greene, to develop a sinker / downward movement on those high-spin-rate fastballs? Maybe we are, and I’m just not seeing the behind the scenes work?