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+--- Thread: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long (/thread-36953.html)
The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Housh - 11-13-2023
Wanted to make a state of the playoffs thread since i haven’t seen one on here yet
In right now:
Chiefs Division lead and play this year
Ravens DL play this year
Jaguars DL play this year
Dolphins DL
Steelers WC 2x games still to play
Browns WC still play this year
Texans WC Lost to
On the bubble
Bengals 4 losses
Raiders 5 losses
Chargers 5 losses
Bills 4 losses Won against
Colts 5 losses Still play them this year
So the most unlikely scenarios are winning out and losing every game for the rest of the season. Neither of those are happening. We are too good to lose out and not good enough to win out.
Looking at this, the division is a long shot but still not out the question. Honestly the 1 seed is still in play.
But ima focus on the WC because i have a feeling that’s the goal.
Winning every division game left plus ONE of the remaining non division games would likely secure a WC spot. That’d put us at 10-7, and ii have to believe that would be enough because 10 wins usually is enough.
If we don’t win one division game all year we are cooked. If we lost our remaining 4 division games but beat ALL of Colts, Jags, Chiefs and Vikings that’s 9-8.
So with 8 games left i predict we NEED 5 wins of ANY category to make playoffs.
So with this said i predict we can lose maybe 2 more games and comfortably make playoffs. I just have to believe 1-2 AFCN teams will fall off.
The two main things we need to root for at least for the next games is Houston to keep winning and Jacksonville to lose the division led so we could own that wildcard tiebreaker. So as of 11/13 the Jags game is the most important game of the season. We also have the Colts as must win. Those 2 teams are the teams directly under us so we cannot lose a tiebreaker to them. If Jacksonville falls off we would have tiebreakers against Colts and Jags. We already have insulation against the Bills so we’re good there.
But even if we win all those non AFCN games we still need ONE win in the AFCN.
If we get 5 wins out of the next 8 games i think we are good.
I say this to say……dont lose your damn minds if we lose Thursday
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - jj22 - 11-13-2023
1 AFC win. Folks have to let that sink in. A loss Thursday and the season is over. Yea the season being over gets thrown around a lot after a disappointing loss, but 1 AFC win in 10 games. There's no making the playoffs in a loaded conference with that conference record. They aren't winning out. Not if they can't even beat the Texans.... At home.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Lucius Cincinnatus - 11-13-2023
(11-13-2023, 08:48 PM)jj22 Wrote: 1 AFC win. Folks have to let that sink in. A loss Thursday and the season is over. Yea the season being over gets thrown around a lot after a disappointing loss, but 1 AFC win in 10 games. There's no making the playoffs in a loaded conference with that conference record. They aren't winning out. Not if they can't even beat the Texans.... At home.
It's going to be tough to overtake some of these teams, for sure.
The browns have 6 wins and games against Broncos, Rams, Bears, and Jets. Hard to imagine they don't get to at least 10 wins.
Texans have 5 wins and 2 games against the Titans, and games against the colts, jets, cardinals, and broncos. Idk if the Texans are at the point you can pencil in wins against teams yet, but I see a minimum of 9 wins with a tie breaker against us.
The Steelers have 6 wins and still play the colts, cardinals, and patriots. Though they for sure aren't good enough to call a game a win ahead of time, but still, 9 wins is likely.
All to say, I agree and if we lose Thursday, we will have to go 5-2 in our last 7 games to get to 10 wins and even then, given tiebreakers, Idk if I love our chances.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - TheLeonardLeap - 11-13-2023
Squeaking in with the 7 seed is not good.
It was added because of money, not because there were so many good teams who were missing the playoffs. That's why those teams are 0-6 with uncompetitive games more often than not.
It's not like baseball playoffs where getting into the playoffs means anything can happen. Football playoffs generally the better team just wins. I believe something like only 1 of the last 24 teams to play in the Super Bowl didn't win their division that year.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Frank Booth - 11-13-2023
I have confidence they can grab the 7th seed. Just get in. This doom and gloom crap is nauseating
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Housh - 11-13-2023
(11-13-2023, 09:32 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I have confidence they can grab the 7th seed. Just get in. This doom and gloom crap is nauseating
And my point in making the thread was that making it is not an INSANE task yet
I wouldn’t even consider it really HARD just yet
It’s just a bit tough.
We could own tiebreakers against the Colts, Jags and Bills. Those are the 3 teams under us that if we didn’t own tiebreakers could cause issues. But atp it’s still very much open, and not “hope 9 teams lose” open either. Steelers Browns could remain good all year and we could still make it in that 7th seed comfortably.
Just can’t lose many more games. (Around 2)
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Nately120 - 11-13-2023
As always, I find that Waylon Jennings and Big Bird sum up my feelings nicely:
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - chrisball96 - 11-13-2023
(11-13-2023, 09:32 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I have confidence they can grab the 7th seed. Just get in. This doom and gloom crap is nauseating
If there’s one thing I learned from the Diamondbacks and baseball this year it’s that if you get into the playoffs anything can happen. It’s all about getting in by any means necessary.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - THE PISTONS - 11-13-2023
Every team we play is .500 or better.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Essex Johnson - 11-14-2023
(11-13-2023, 08:09 PM)Housh Wrote: Wanted to make a state of the playoffs thread since i haven’t seen one on here yet
In right now:
Chiefs Division lead and play this year
Ravens DL play this year
Jaguars DL play this year
Dolphins DL
Steelers WC 2x games still to play
Browns WC still play this year
Texans WC Lost to
On the bubble
Bengals 4 losses
Raiders 5 losses
Chargers 5 losses
Bills 4 losses Won against
Colts 5 losses Still play them this year
So the most unlikely scenarios are winning out and losing every game for the rest of the season. Neither of those are happening. We are too good to lose out and not good enough to win out.
Looking at this, the division is a long shot but still not out the question. Honestly the 1 seed is still in play.
But ima focus on the WC because i have a feeling that’s the goal.
Winning every division game left plus ONE of the remaining non division games would likely secure a WC spot. That’d put us at 10-7, and ii have to believe that would be enough because 10 wins usually is enough.
If we don’t win one division game all year we are cooked. If we lost our remaining 4 division games but beat ALL of Colts, Jags, Chiefs and Vikings that’s 9-8.
So with 8 games left i predict we NEED 5 wins of ANY category to make playoffs.
So with this said i predict we can lose maybe 2 more games and comfortably make playoffs. I just have to believe 1-2 AFCN teams will fall off.
The two main things we need to root for at least for the next games is Houston to keep winning and Jacksonville to lose the division led so we could own that wildcard tiebreaker. So as of 11/13 the Jags game is the most important game of the season. We also have the Colts as must win. Those 2 teams are the teams directly under us so we cannot lose a tiebreaker to them. If Jacksonville falls off we would have tiebreakers against Colts and Jags. We already have insulation against the Bills so we’re good there.
But even if we win all those non AFCN games we still need ONE win in the AFCN.
If we get 5 wins out of the next 8 games i think we are good.
I say this to say……dont lose your damn minds if we lose Thursday
We have toughest end of year Schedule, with our inconsistent season looking like 9-8 to 10-7 and watching playoffs from home
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Awful Llama - 11-14-2023
(11-13-2023, 08:48 PM)jj22 Wrote: 1 AFC win. Folks have to let that sink in. A loss Thursday and the season is over. Yea the season being over gets thrown around a lot after a disappointing loss, but 1 AFC win in 10 games. There's no making the playoffs in a loaded conference with that conference record. They aren't winning out. Not if they can't even beat the Texans.... At home.
I wouldn't say the season is "over" with a loss Thursday night. It would certainly make winning the division a near-impossibility, yes, but it doesn't preclude us from qualifying for a WC spot. That would also be a big ask - we'd probably have to go 5-2 in the final seven and get some help for a realistic shot at a WC spot, but that's not impossible. I don't know, I guess I'm not feeling as gloomy about their chances as I did 30 hours ago.
Thursday night is a big as it gets.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - TheLeonardLeap - 11-14-2023
(11-13-2023, 10:28 PM)chrisball96 Wrote: If there’s one thing I learned from the Diamondbacks and baseball this year it’s that if you get into the playoffs anything can happen. It’s all about getting in by any means necessary.
Just a couple posts above you I pointed out that baseball playoffs and football playoffs are vastly different. 23 of the last 24 teams that played in the Super Bowl won their division.
Even baseball, while being much wilder, still has 18 of the last 24 teams to play in the World Series being divisional winners.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - cinci4life - 11-14-2023
Well Buffalo just lost to Denver so that helps.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Nepa - 11-14-2023
(11-14-2023, 01:44 AM)cinci4life Wrote: Well Buffalo just lost to Denver so that helps.
There's a Super Bowl-contending team (Buffalo) that has had a string of bad-luck losses. 12-men on the field for a missed FG attempt, who then makes it on the retry? An interception right before the half that ends up in points? Taking the ball on offense first, rather than defer as is their standard, and they fumble the first play of the game?
And now Buffalo has the 2nd hardest upcoming schedule. The Mafia is probably ready to bring in the real Mafia to straighten some things out.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - George Cantstandya - 11-14-2023
(11-14-2023, 09:41 AM)Nepa Wrote: There's a Super Bowl-contending team (Buffalo) that has had a string of bad-luck losses. 12-men on the field for a missed FG attempt, who then makes it on the retry? An interception right before the half that ends up in points? Taking the ball on offense first, rather than defer as is their standard, and they fumble the first play of the game?
And now Buffalo has the 2nd hardest upcoming schedule. The Mafia is probably ready to bring in the real Mafia to straighten some things out.
My opinion is that I don't think I would call some of those issues the Bills had bad luck. For example 12 men on the field is a stupid mistake and bad execution. In the NFL where a lot of games are very close with small margins for error mistakes like that can and do end up costing a team a victory.
Bad luck to me is more like what happened to Hendrickson Sunday. Play was over and he was just standing there looking at the sideline when the guy from the Texans fell down and rolled in to him.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Millhouse - 11-14-2023
I don't want to look at the glass half-empty, but if this team isn't fully healthy, they are screwed. CAn blame it on the lackluster depth or coaching or both, but they are not a good team when not healthy, especially on offense.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Housh - 11-14-2023
(11-14-2023, 09:41 AM)Nepa Wrote: There's a Super Bowl-contending team (Buffalo) that has had a string of bad-luck losses. 12-men on the field for a missed FG attempt, who then makes it on the retry? An interception right before the half that ends up in points? Taking the ball on offense first, rather than defer as is their standard, and they fumble the first play of the game?
And now Buffalo has the 2nd hardest upcoming schedule. The Mafia is probably ready to bring in the real Mafia to straighten some things out.
I just find it hilarious they boiled all that shit onto their last OC because the offense was too Josh Allen centric but the new offense is even more Josh Allen centric lol
Maybe it’s just Josh Allen guys
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Nepa - 11-14-2023
(11-14-2023, 09:57 AM)George Cantstandya Wrote: My opinion is that I don't think I would call some of those issues the Bills had bad luck. For example 12 men on the field is a stupid mistake and bad execution. In the NFL where a lot of games are very close with small margins for error mistakes like that can and do end up costing a team a victory.
Bad luck to me is more like what happened to Hendrickson Sunday. Play was over and he was just standing there looking at the sideline when the guy from the Texans fell down and rolled in to him.
Agreed. Bad luck is the wrong word in many cases. Buffalo injuries have been bad luck, but they also were badly outcoached in this game. Sean Payton was just a genius for the Broncos the whole game.
Even getting the 12 men on the field by Buffalo was a genius play on his part, since rather than kick after a time out, he has the Broncos run a play and then run the FG unit out on the field, executing flawlessly, while Buffalo was discombobulated. Payton did the same thing at the end of the first half, running a play that ended with only 14 seconds left, no time out left, and got the kicking time in position in plenty of time to make a kick at the end of the first half.
The end of the first half kick was just well, well coached. I looked at the reply. After the play concluded with 14-seconds left, the Broncos center moved to a new location, other players shifted, new players came in, all within 14 seconds, and set up with time to spare. Payton didn't have to run that risky last play, where for many teams time would run out before the kicking unit was set, but everyone on the kicking unit and regular offense unit knew exactly what to do.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Goalpost - 11-14-2023
They are still trying to figure out in Buffalo who the '12th' man was. Some are speculating, while maybe not the exact cause, that Damar Hamlin entering the game late added to the confusion.
RE: The road to the division/wildcard isn’t even that long - Wyche'sWarrior - 11-14-2023
(11-13-2023, 09:32 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I have confidence they can grab the 7th seed. Just get in. This doom and gloom crap is nauseating
Yeah, realistically Thursday is going to be tough with too many key contributors out and poor depth behind them. We should sweep Shitsburgh, and should beat Cleveland. That tidies things up a bit in our division. I feel like the WC is still readily available.