(02-26-2025, 05:44 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Shouldn’t we be running to the podium if he is available at 17?

(02-26-2025, 11:55 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: NO !

When he first broke out there couple years ago, like 4 sacks and a pic 6 or whatever in one game, I was like WOW here's a real game breaker. But since then he's only been so-so. Oh he's had some plays here and there. But he's not enough of a dynamic playmaker for 1st rd.

He's more like a 3rd rounder IMHO.

Abdul Carter might have some company pic.twitter.com/tzPg6S7D94

— Football Insights ? (@fball_insights) February 14, 2025

(02-26-2025, 02:43 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I haven’t got to watch as much college football as I’ve wanted. But dude had the most TFLs and sacks of his career, played on the #1 D, and won a national championship. Seems like a story book end to the former #1 overall recruits college career.  Why the fall off talk?

(02-26-2025, 03:25 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Didn't know about the stats NATI. I could be wrong as I didn't watch the college playoff either. When I did watch OSU JT was invisible to me though.

Not like the years before where he was dominant.

(02-26-2025, 03:35 PM)FormerlyBengalRugby Wrote: The other question becomes, is he that good, and making the defense better, or does he look good because he is on a dominant defense?

(02-26-2025, 03:25 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Didn't know about the stats NATI. I could be wrong as I didn't watch the college playoff either. When I did watch OSU JT was invisible to me though.

Not like the years before where he was dominant.

(02-26-2025, 03:42 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: He did very well in the playoffs this year. 6.5 of his 12.5 sacks came in the 4 playoff games, to go along with 23 tackles 10 of which were TFL. His regular season stats were about the same as they were for 2023.

(02-26-2025, 03:42 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: He did very well in the playoffs this year. 6.5 of his 12.5 sacks came in the 4 playoff games, to go along with 23 tackles 10 of which were TFL. His regular season stats were about the same as they were for 2023.

(02-26-2025, 01:08 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Mykel Williams is a huge injury risk. He was hurt in 2023 and then had a high ankle aprain in 2024 and missed some games and also had to play through the injury the rest of the year.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44024373/nfl-draft-prospect-mykel-williams-was-injured-whole-year-georgia


His injury history also makes it hard to trust this evaluation on him. He may end up being the in this group. However, I would not take the risk, we have done in the past and it never seems to work out or us.

As far as JT, I agree at best a second round pick, not close to a 1st round pick.

(02-26-2025, 12:21 PM)CJD Wrote: Joe Goodberry pulled up a chart in one of his breakdown videos that I found very interesting. It was a chart that showed the last several years of edge prospects (since 2016) charted on "pass rush win rate" vs "true pass rush set percentage."

I found the original tweet, below.

Abdul Carter might have some company pic.twitter.com/tzPg6S7D94

— Football Insights ? (@fball_insights) February 14, 2025

I am not 100% sure if "true pass rush sets" means the percentage of plays in which they were true pass rush sets, or if that is the true pass rush win rate and they just abbreviated the axis title.

Regardless, this chart seems to be a pretty good representation of which prospects succeeded vs which prospects struggled in the NFL.
For example, the bottom left quadrant holds a lot of notable draft busts/underwhelming, highly drafted players like Solomon Thomas, Clelin Ferrell, Myles Murphy (for the time being), K'Lavon Chaisson, Marcus Davenport, Tyree Wilson, Joe Tryon, Lukas Van Ness, Takk McKinley, Payton Turner, and, at least relative to his draft position, Travon Walker.

There are a few players in that quadrant that had decent/good careers, like Greg Rousseau, Bradley Chubb, Brian Burns and Kwity Paye, but they are the outliers and, even still, most of the "star pass rushers" in the NFL today are in the upper right quadrant. You got Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Jared Verse, Aiden Hutchinson, and Chop Robinson all up there. There are obviously some whiffs up there too like Chase Young (who isn't a bust, but just didn't live up to a #2 OA pick), and LJ Collier who was just a straight bust, but the overall average quality of pass rusher in the top right quadrant is much higher than those in the bottom left quadrant.

And JT Tuimoloau is right smack dab in the middle of that bottom left quadrant.

Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, Kyle Kennard and Landon Jackson are all down there too. And watching these players in game kind of holds up with this general assessment.

My edge targets in the first round are James Pearce Jr, Mike Green and Nic Scourton. My edge targets in the 2nd/3rd round are Princely Umanmielen and Jack Sawyer. I'd be open to Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 2nd/3rd round because he's in the top right section of that bottom left quadrant.

But I largely want to avoid players like JT Tuimoloau, Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, Kyle Kennard and Landon Jackson entirely unless they just plummet into day 3.

(02-26-2025, 05:44 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Shouldn’t we be running to the podium if he is available at 17?

(02-27-2025, 12:14 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Indeed.

If the rumored character concerns can be disspelled for Pearce, he's a guy I would like.
If it's only because of the arrest from a traffic stop back in Dec 2023 that was dropped a couple weeks later, that doesn't seem like a big enough character concern (to me).
Pearce I can see as a future replacement for Hendrickson if Hendrickson departs in a year or two.

I also like Scourton, but more as a replacement for Hubbard.

I've been more against the likes of Shemar Stewart and Mykel Williams primarily because I see them as less refined and will need to rely on a good system/coaches to get them to reach their ceiling, which I don't trust the Bengals to be able to do (yet).

(02-26-2025, 02:10 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: JT was a stud a couple years ago. Man did he fall off last year...

Agree with BF74, maybe in the 2nd round or later.

(02-28-2025, 12:31 AM)pulses Wrote: Williams is more like a 3rd rounder to me....good against the run but that's it no pass rush.