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The Window is open free agency and draft - Burma - 01-28-2016
After this past season I think it is safe to say that the Bengal’s “Window” of winning a Super Bowl has opened. The last few years were good, but this team seemed different. For the most part the players are there, the contracts are there, and the cap space is there. With that in mind, there are a few things that I think could help solidify the team’s chances of getting that championship. This off season will be critical in determining if the Bengal’s can take advantage of their situation.
Issues that need addressed.
Run Defense: ranked 12th in league last year but that was helped by teams playing from behind and passing. Critically though had significant difficulty in stopping the run when they had to. From a player perspective Geno is the only DT performing. Peko looked gassed and lost his ability to anchor probably due to the lack of solid rotation. (Geno had 72% of snaps, Peko 49.95, and next DT was Thompson at 16.87)
Secondary situation: 4 key guys up for new contracts. Some will go, but need to secure future while maintaining present.
Line Backers: Many questions marks. Rey Maualuga may be the only LB on opening day that played last season. Dawson is a question, Burfict won’t be there for 3 games. Lamur should not be on the team, etc. Overall need to add some athleticism as well.
Pass rush: Geno does it, Dunlap stepped up, and that was it. Johnson was solid, but not impactful, Gilberry looked worn out (Johnson was in on 77.97% snaps, Gilberry, 58.06, the next DE with snaps was Will Clark at 12.35%) Margus Hunt had a whopping 5.25% of the defensive snaps and produced 1 tackle and 1 assist. That brings his career numbers to 7 tackles, 7 assists, 1.5 sacks in 3 years. Time to go.
Wide Receiver: Critical time, but not really a worry. I think the Bengals will/have to keep the unit together. Now is not the time to take away stability from the offense. Possibly some depth to replace Tate, but otherwise I think we keep our own.
Center play. Bodine looked light in the pants in 2015. I don’t see the team moving from him yet as he is entering the critical “3rd year” of his career. Possibly can be addressed in draft but not in a way that would clearly upgrade the position.
Offensive Tackle: Will the new kids step up? Andre is all but gone and Whit has few seasons left. Maybe can add some depth.
Of those 7 issues 1 should be solved quickly in re-signing Jones and Sanu. 4 must be addressed and the remaining 2 are more quality of life issues.
In light of this here is what I think the team should do, not necessarily what I think the Bengals actually will do.
Cuts:
Margus Hunt: The experiment has failed miserable. Cutting Hunt and his 1.5 sacks and 7 tackles saves nearly 1 mill in cap space.
Extensions:
Kevin Zeitler: re-signing Zeitler now prevents him from entering free agency next year. Currently he has a cap hit of 8 mill. Offering him a deal similar to Boling’s 5 year/26 mill contract would free up nearly 2 mill on the cap this year.
Andrew Whitworth: Currently Whitworth counts for 8 mill against the cap. Extending him on a 2 year 10 mill contract frees up 4.2 mill this season and allows for an easier transition to the future tackles.
Dre Kirkpatrick: This is a bit of a gamble, but Dre has shown signs that he might live up to his potential. Current cap hit is 7.5 mill. Extend him on a 4 year/16 mill deal would free up approx. 4 mill.
These extensions are not just to free up space to chase big name free agents. It is to free up space to maintain the core of young players and part of that is where a chunk of this savings will go to…
Tyler Eifert: Eifert is critical to Dalton’s success. We are most likely looking at a Gronk type deal in the neighborhood of 5 year/50 mill. That extension would bump Eifert’s cap number from 2.6 to @10 mill this season.
Free Agency:
est $33.8 million in cap space before re-signings per over the cap plus an additional $1.2 Million from extensions and cuts. Totaling $35 Mill.
Let Go:
Andre Smith: Can’t afford. Seems a foregone conclusion
Adam Jones: 32. But coming off a career year. Per lawsuit owes victims of strip club 12.4 mill. He needs to get a big money contract now. This is his last, best, shot. I severely doubt the Bengals can afford what he will need/want. The most recent comparisons for performance and age would be the contracts of Brandon Browner (31), 3 year/15 mill, Tramon Williams (32), 3 year/21 mill, and Antonio Cromartie (31), 4 year/32 mill
Reggie Nelson: 32. But coming off a career year. An absolute enigma of a situation. The only 2 recent free agent signings for a safety near his age and productivity are Antrell Rolle (33) 3 year/11.25 mill, and Roman Harper (33), 5 year/10.6 mill. But neither of those guys were coming off the best year of their careers. I think we need to let Reggie test the market and, if possible, match what he gets, within reason.
Emmanuel Lamur: easily upgraded
Eric Winston: Replaceable with younger upgrade.
Pat Sims: Underwhelming contribution in 2015.
Brandon Tate: Rosters spots are more valuable than his 1 dimensional return game. Too many good players who can contribute in several phases of the game.
Re-signings:
George Iloka. Either by franchise tag, or the estimated 6 year 42 mill contract, Iloka is a must return. His emergence allows the Bengals the opportunity to replace Reggie Nelson’s center field abilities with a much younger package.
Marvin Jones: Another key player. Sportrac is projecting a contract valued at 4 year/22 mill.
Mohamed Sanu: Important piece for consistency stand point alone. 21st best free agent WR per PFF with grade of 53.5. For a frame of reference Andre Caldwell with the Broncos had a 51.3. A contract in the realm of 3 years, 12 mill looks in line with production.
Leon Hall: Don’t be shocked. Leon had a better season than a lot of people give him credit for. PFF had him graded at 78.4. Adam Jones was at 83.3. The key aspect of re-signing Leon hall is his versatility and leadership. The young CBs of the future are here now. Having a vet that you can rely on both on and off the field can’t be overstated. A 2 year/5 mill contract would be right in line with a player of his age and production yet possible decline, in between the Brandon Browner (31) 3 year/15 mill, and Rashean Mathis (35) 2 year/3.5 contracts.
Wallace Gilberry: As stated above Gilberry looked worn out. At this point I would have him as a fringe player and offer a 1 year/1.75 mill deal (about average for a low end DE) and look to draft a replacement. Cut him if someone emerges in camp.
Vincent Rey: Leading the team in tackles doesn’t always mean you are good, sometimes you just get a lot of snaps. Rey is an example of this. Lots of tackles and lots of snaps (744). Aside from his familiarity there is nothing here that you can’t upgrade on. Having said that, I’m offering Rey a 1 year/1.5 mill deal solely because we need his consistency while Burfict is out.
Brandon Thompson: Through 4 seasons Thompson has amassed 29 tackles and 3 sacks. He gets the 1 year prove it deal as well. Devon Still got 1 year/$740,000, so adjusting for inflation Thompson gets 1 year/$760,000 and if he does not show marked improvement he is gone before the season starts.
Free Agent Acquisitions:
As normal the Bengals should be minor players in free agency with the majority of the cap space being spent on retention and selective pick ups. This year there are 2 players acquired who will provide solid impacts at mid level prices and also upgrade their respective positions.
Brandon Boykin: CB, 5’10”, 182 lbs, 25 y.o.
Signing Boykin would take quite a bit of sting out of losing Adam Jones. Boykin was a dynamic, agile slot corner for the Eagles and was just as good when in the open field. Pittsburgh barely used him until the 11th game of the season. He is the 24th ranked CB per PFF, graded at 76.9 (leon hall 78.4, Adam Jones 83.3). Acquiring Boykin would solidify the CB position for several years and hamper Pittsburgh as well.
The latest word is that Boykin is going to test the free agency market. (http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/7492/brandon-boykin)
Based on age and production his contract be in line with the deal Davon house signed with Jacksonville in 2015, @ 4 year/$26 mill with $10 mill guaranteed.
Mark Barron: OLB, 6’2”, 213lbs, 26 y.o.
Yes, you read that right. Mark Barron is now an OLB. After failing to meet expectations as a Safety he was pushed into the OLB position for the Rams. His blend of power, coverage and instincts have allowed him to become a very good “in the box” hybrid OLB/SS. Signing Barron would allow the team to significantly upgrade the athleticism of the LB core and to provide a significant upgrade over the departed Lamur. Barron is rated as the 7th best LB in free agency with a PFF grade of 74.8 (Vincent Rey 43.8, Lammur 39.7)
Compare Barron’s stat line for 2015 to Vinny Rey’s.
Barron: 941 snaps, 79 solo tackles, 37 assists. 1 sack, 5 Pass Def. 3 FF
Rey: 744 snaps, 64 solo tackles, 34 assists. 1 sack, 5 Pass Def, 1 Int,
Barron also had 16 tackles for loss, only 7 players in the NFL had more. The only 2 Bengals players with more were Geno Atkins had 17, Carlos Dunlap had 16. Burfict was tied for 78th place with 8 TFLs
Based on age and production Barron would have a similar contract similar to Bruce Carter at @ 4 year/$20 mill.
At this point the Bengals are left with $7 million in cap space. Enough to sign the draft picks and a bit left over for in season acquisitions. If more space is needed cutting Kevin Huber would free up 2.6 million, ideally there would be a renegotiation of his contract to provide the same benefits without losing the punter.
On to the Draft!
The players selected in this draft are based on who should be there and be the best player that meet one of the needs discussed earlier. Positional rankings from personal observation and CBS for consistency’s sake.
1st Kenny Clark, DT, UCLA. 6’2” 310lbs
![[Image: 6_3117021.png]](http://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/21/117/6_3117021.png)
Run Defense and pocket push addressed.
From CBS:
Quote:He's a stout run defender who comes off the ball low and hard, consistently winning the leverage battle. Anchors well to double teams, planting his feet into the turf and locking out his arms. Clark flashes a quick burst but doesn't rely on it, exploding through the gap to wreak havoc at the line of scrimmage when opponents attempt to pull to block others.
Asked to play defensive end, defensive tackle and nose guard for the Bruins, Clark will enter the NFL with plenty of position and schematic versatility.
2nd Bronson Kaufusi, DE, BYU. 6’6” 250ish lbs
![[Image: 1303450.jpg]](http://img.deseretnews.com/images/article/midres/1303450/1303450.jpg)
I have enjoyed watching Kaufusi all season and was hoping he would slip to the Bengals in the 3rd. Unfortunately due to his showing in his bowl game and the senior bowl practices we will be fortunate to get him in the 2nd. He ranked 2nd in PFF pass-rush grades and 8th against the run for Des.
From CBS:
Quote:Unlike most former basketball players, Kaufusi doesn't shy from contact, using his length and strength to stack and shed blockers at the point of attack and grab hold of ballcarriers as they attempt to run by. For his size, Kaufusi possesses good initial burst of the ball and he accelerates smoothly, showing a terrific motor to chase down ballcarriers yards downfield. He's alert and surprisingly nimble, showing enough balance, agility and awareness to drop into coverage on shallow routes.
The son of BYU defensive line coach Steve Kaufusi, he shows some polish, incorporating a powerful rip and spin moves to go along with traditional speed and power rushes. Called the "perfect BYU player" by then-head coach Bronco Mendenhall (now at Virginia) based on Kaufusi's talent, work ethic and leadership.
3rd Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State. 6’5” 308 lbs
![[Image: 7_3061696.jpg]](http://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/696/61/7_3061696.jpg)
Bigger, faster, younger Gilberry. Able to swing from DT to DE as needed and provide much needed depth to the D Line rotation. Has the frame to bulk up and become a full time DT if needed.
From CBS:
Quote:Looks good on the hoof with a big-boned frame and core strength. Quick initial step with an efficient spin move. Agile lower body to sidestep blocks and operate in small spaces, redirecting himself without losing momentum in pursuit. Quick hands and attacks the shoulder of blockers to wedge himself through gaps. Understands how to split double-teams, using his body to gain leverage. Determined chaser away from the line of scrimmage. Uses his long arms to press blockers off his frame. Commended by the coaches for his improved practice habits and attention to detail, working hard in the weight room to shed bad weight. Experienced lining up at multiple spots inside and outside on the defensive line.
4th Tajae Sharpe, WR, UMASS. 6’2” 185 lbs.
![[Image: dt-common-streams-streamserver.jpg]](https://thesportsmecca.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/dt-common-streams-streamserver.jpg)
Depth and athleticism for the WR core. Sharpe really helped himself at the shrine game.
WR Tajae Sharpe (6-2, 189) is popping at SR Bowl. Lightning fast footwork in drills and he's catching everything despite small hands.
— Charles Robinson (@CharlesRobinson) January 26, 2016
From CBS:
Quote:Has a tall, linear frame with long arms and strong hands to pluck the ball and climb the ladder when needed. He has terrific field sense to know where the sticks are, gaining proper depth in his routes and creating space with sharp footwork in his breaks. Sharpe is fearless with the ball in the air and stays focused on finishing catches.
5th TRADE!!
Bengals send their 5th round pick to the New York Jets for their 6th and CB Dee Milliner!
-Don’t laugh. Word has it that if the Jets can get anything from Milliner they will let him walk. His contract is fully guaranteed at this point, so stay or go, he costs them the same and they apparently feel his roster spot is worth more.
(http://www.ganggreennation.com/2016/1/14/10766990/jets-offseason-moves-what-to-do-with-dee-milliner)
Milliner gets a chance to rehab his body and himself in a place known to be the fountain of youth for corner backs and the Bengals get another one of those former 1st round corners they love to rejuvenate. The Worst case scenario is the Bengals cut him and lose nothing since the Jets are still paying him. Best case he finds himself and plays like the shut down corner that he was at Alabama. More likely he rehabs and becomes a solid contributor and valuable depth.
6th and beyond BPA. Would like to see
Chris Brown, WR, Notre Dame 6’2” 180 lbs
Curt Maggitt, OLB, Tennessee, 6’2” 250 lbs
RE: The Window is open free agency and draft - milksheikh - 01-28-2016
Why take 2 DTs?
I don't like anything from this draft sorry..
RE: The Window is open free agency and draft - TGISunday - 01-28-2016
Always enjoy your contributions to the draft forum.
Love draft rounds 1 and 2.
I could see 2 DTs again. We seem to love our picks in pairs.
One thing that stuck out like a sore thumb: Are you anti-puntite? Huber is a pro bowl caliber punter. Punters are people, too...
RE: The Window is open free agency and draft - RoyleRedlegs - 01-28-2016
Drafting 2 DTs is good. Re-signing Thompson and Drafting 2 DTs is a little odd.
If we draft 2 DTs we'd need 2 spots from DTs.
RE: The Window is open free agency and draft - NATI BENGALS - 01-29-2016
(01-28-2016, 09:47 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: Drafting 2 DTs is good. Re-signing Thompson and Drafting 2 DTs is a little odd.
If we draft 2 DTs we'd need 2 spots from DTs.
Thompson tore his ACL about the same time Ogbuehi did last year right? Im thinking pup all day.
RE: The Window is open free agency and draft - c12schleyer - 01-29-2016
I can get on board with everything you put together prior to the draft. And I love the idea of Boykin and Barron.
but...
When you get to the draft is when the problems start for me.
I am ok with 2 DT, but don't think it is necessary to take them until the second/third or later. I don't see a huge drop off from a player like Clark and guys like Vander'does, Collins, etc.
I am all for a DE, but I think Kaufusi is a stretch in the 2nd. He has shown well recently, but his tape shows a guy that struggles getting off blocks. If he doesn't beat the blocker off the snap he struggles.
I like the idea of WR, but once again... I think there is better value and more proven talent available in the 5th.
I do love the idea of stealing Milliner from the Jets though. A change of scenery could do him good.
RE: The Window is open free agency and draft - RoyleRedlegs - 01-29-2016
(01-29-2016, 05:52 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Thompson tore his ACL about the same time Ogbuehi did last year right? Im thinking pup all day.
then there is no reason to re-sign him until he shows he can move like he used to. His game was entirely predicated on his ability to win off the snap.
RE: The Window is open free agency and draft - Okeana - 01-29-2016
I like some of the concepts, but there is simply a lot of bad picks and terrible free agency. We have two pro bowl caliber players in their prime and you want to let them walk. especially when they love this city and we can probably get them at a discount. Our defense was among the best in the nfl last season and your building as if were one of the worse in the league. I agree that peko needs an upgrade, but sims is a serviceable backup. Its been proven that when johnson is on the line that it improves atkins and dunlap. Chemistry means something in this league not just individual stats.
as far as the draft goes why would you not take a line backer. Its one of the strongest round 1 line backer classes in a long time and its probably the biggest need on the team. Keeping Sanu would be a mistake the guy offers little to the team in terms of performance and getting another stud on the roster would just make jones/green combo better.
..... BTW im 100% behind Barron and drafting Jaylon Smith or Darron Lee. It will allow us to develop them behind 3 starters and eventually put them in when Burfict moves to the middle.
RE: The Window is open free agency and draft - Burma - 02-02-2016
(01-28-2016, 08:54 PM)milksheikh Wrote: Why take 2 DTs?
I don't like anything from this draft sorry..
As was mentioned below, we have Geno and Peko. That's it. 2 DT. Marcus Hardison is an unknown and the Williams kid on the practice squad is even more so.
Also The 2nd DT, Chris Jones, could swing to DE as well for when we release Hunt and/or Gilberry.
(01-28-2016, 09:15 PM)TGISunday Wrote: Always enjoy your contributions to the draft forum.
Love draft rounds 1 and 2.
I could see 2 DTs again. We seem to love our picks in pairs.
One thing that stuck out like a sore thumb: Are you anti-puntite? Huber is a pro bowl caliber punter. Punters are people, too...
Nope
Huber has a bigish cap hit this year (3 mil). The Anger kid from Jacksonville is a free agent this year and has comparable stats to Huber. saving money is saving money.(01-28-2016, 09:47 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: Drafting 2 DTs is good. Re-signing Thompson and Drafting 2 DTs is a little odd.
If we draft 2 DTs we'd need 2 spots from DTs.
(01-29-2016, 03:34 PM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: then there is no reason to re-sign him until he shows he can move like he used to. His game was entirely predicated on his ability to win off the snap.
Thompson was a bit of a curve ball. I anticipated him starting season on the PUP list and if we don't need him he gets cut. If someone gets banged up or the younger guys can't step in then we have an experienced guy who can come in midway through the season. The 1 year deal offered in this scenario makes it possible to use him this way.
(01-29-2016, 05:52 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Thompson tore his ACL about the same time Ogbuehi did last year right? Im thinking pup all day.
This guy ^^
(01-29-2016, 11:33 AM)c12schleyer Wrote: I am ok with 2 DT, but don't think it is necessary to take them until the second/third or later. I don't see a huge drop off from a player like Clark and guys like Vander'does, Collins, etc.
I am all for a DE, but I think Kaufusi is a stretch in the 2nd. He has shown well recently, but his tape shows a guy that struggles getting off blocks. If he doesn't beat the blocker off the snap he struggles.
I like the idea of WR, but once again... I think there is better value and more proven talent available in the 5th.
I do love the idea of stealing Milliner from the Jets though. A change of scenery could do him good.
The DT thinking went like this. Peko is getting older, we need a dynamic run stuffing guy first who also has some agility to capitalize on the attention Geno and Dunlap get. We could take a shot later in the draft, but it is a pretty big need and the DT class is a good class, but top heavy. The other big needs of LB and CB will most likely have been cherry picked by the 24th pick, making the deep DT also most likely BPA.
I understand about Kaufusi. Ideally we could get him in the 3rd, but he looks to have "clicked" and is putting his game together at just the right time. Late 2nd for him now seems ideal, if not a bit late from what the buzz is.
Can't argue about the 3rd point. There might very well be better in the 5th. Sharpe is a guy I was moderately impressed with that CBS had right around this range in the draft.
(01-29-2016, 07:50 PM)Okeana Wrote: ... We have two pro bowl caliber players in their prime and you want to let them walk. especially when they love this city and we can probably get them at a discount. Our defense was among the best in the nfl last season and your building as if were one of the worse in the league. I agree that peko needs an upgrade, but sims is a serviceable backup. Its been proven that when johnson is on the line that it improves atkins and dunlap. Chemistry means something in this league not just individual stats.
as far as the draft goes why would you not take a line backer. Its one of the strongest round 1 line backer classes in a long time and its probably the biggest need on the team. Keeping Sanu would be a mistake the guy offers little to the team in terms of performance and getting another stud on the roster would just make jones/green combo better.
..... BTW im 100% behind Barron and drafting Jaylon Smith or Darron Lee. It will allow us to develop them behind 3 starters and eventually put them in when Burfict moves to the middle.
Both are older, and I think Iloka can take Nelson's spot with not much downside. We can't keep everyone and I would rather keep the young up and comer than hope the sun doesn't set too soon on Nelson. As to Adam Jones, he is 50/50 for me to come back. He likes it here and (mostly) reinvented himself here. However, he has that massive judgement against him from the shooting, was broke from what I have read and this is his last chance to get a sizeable contract on the open market.. It's a coin flip here.
As to the LB. Jack, Smith and Ragland will almost certainly be gone before our pick. Signing Mark Barron would be more impactful than any of the 2nd tier guys. I do like Blake Martinez from Stanford, but he is an ILB and a low round projection.
That's it for now.
RE: The Window is open free agency and draft - SHRacerX - 02-03-2016
I like the drafting, but I need to go WR earlier that isn't a project and can contribute from day 1.
The FA ideas for retention/release are solid, but there is no way I let Adam Jones walk. Even though he is 33 at the start of next year, he missed significant time early in his career and he takes fantastic care of his body (thank you Terrence Newman). He was THE best player in the secondary last year. I want him there when they hoist the Lombardi.
I also think your numbers are off a bit for Jones and Sanu. Jones gets 5.5 million per year and Sanu gets 4? Sanu isn't worth anything near that. I like him, but his lack of separation makes him expendable. I honestly think Rex Burkhead would be a bigger challenge for opposing defenses in the slot. Jones will command something closer to 6.5 million/year and I really like him. I would really try to re-sign Jones and let Sanu walk.
As far as the outside FA signings, though you make a good point about Barron, I don't see the Bengals signing really anyone during the actual FA period other than their own. People will hate to hear that, but losing Sanu, Reggie Nelson, and Andre Smith would add up to a couple significant compensatory picks in my estimation. With what the Bengals have ahead for FA, these draft picks would be huge.
Overall, great analysis and work on the entire post. Those are just my takes.