Quote:Scouting for the NFL draft is an inexact science. Every scout and analyst has a slightly different take on each prospect. There's also quite a bit of groupthink that influences the way people view prospects.

EDITOR'S PICKS

Elliott is best RB prospect since Peterson
The former Ohio State star is a very good runner and already an experienced pass-blocker, making him a three-down back as soon as he enters the NFL, Sam Monson writes.
One way to try to find a consensus is to use Pro Football Focus grading to gauge whether a player's on-field performance matches his projected draft status. The key is being able to sort out the outliers, and just as there are every year, a few prospects stand out as lacking the production to warrant the hype they're getting.

Here's a look at the 2016 draft's most overrated prospects:


Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State

We've beat this drum quite a bit, but Hackenberg simply didn't look like an NFL prospect for any extended period during his three seasons at Penn State. Even during his freshman season -- the year most will point to as reason for optimism -- his accuracy was just as bad as it was his last two seasons in Happy Valley when he graded as one of the worst quarterbacks in all of college football. At this point, any team looking to take Hackenberg as high as the second round is doing so because he looks like an NFL quarterback.



Christian Hackenberg threw 48 touchdown passes and 31 interceptions in his Penn State career. Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports

Deion Jones, LB, LSU

Most good linebackers are also good athletes, but not every athletic linebacker has success in the NFL. Jones can wow with his athleticism, and that has many analysts projecting him as an early-round pick. Unfortunately the tape doesn't back up his case as an early rounder. The LSU product ranked 130th out of 145 linebacker prospects in this draft class, grading poorly both against the run and in coverage. His run woes stem from an inability to get off blocks, while also sometimes being slow to diagnose plays, inviting second-level blocks from offensive linemen. He missed one out of every 5.3 tackle attempts, which ranked 114th in the nation. In coverage, the flashes are great -- during one Senior Bowl practice, he broke up a pass on a crossing route while playing cover-3, a route combination that crushes NFL defenses on a weekly basis -- but he was far too inconsistent on a snap-to-snap basis. He had as many lapses in coverage as he did big plays.


Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State

Lee is similar to Jones, but Lee hasn't been nearly as bad on the field. The problem with Lee are his projections as a first-round pick. He's an explosive player, but when it comes to beating blocks in the running game or playing a clean game in coverage, Lee hasn't produced as one would expect from a top pick. There are certainly some highlights -- his pick-six on a bubble screen comes to mind -- but Lee still graded at minus-.2 in coverage, good for 74th among linebackers in the class, while grading at minus-3.4 in coverage in 2014. He has been solid against the run at plus-15.6 over the past two years, but he has 25 missed tackles on 134 attempts during that time, a similar rate as Jones. Lee's best work has come as a pass-rusher (plus-20 over the past two seasons), but he's lacking in key areas to be considered in the first round.


Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State

There's plenty of first-round hype surrounding Decker, but his skill set may be better suited for later rounds. He certainly looks the part of a first-round tackle, but the big question to his game is in pass protection. Decker's pass protection grade ranks only 37th among draft-eligible tackles, a year removed from ranking 33rd in the same group. He simply loses battles far more often than other first-round tackles in pass protection, and he's not an athletic marvel. Where Decker does excel is at the line of scrimmage in the running game, but even there his skill set is likely limited to a power scheme. He is a crushing blocker, particularly on double teams, but he's often a step slow when asked to make more movement blocks of a zone scheme. Given the importance of pass protection in the NFL, Decker has work to do before he's considered a top-end tackle, and his scheme limitations don't help his cause.


Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame

Speed kills, and Fuller certainly has plenty of it, but it might not be enough to make him a first-rounder. Fuller is likely a first-round lock and could be the first wide receiver taken in the draft, but there are a number of prospects with more versatile skill sets who will outproduce him at the next level. There's a lot to like about Fuller's game as the 4.32 40 speed shows up on film, confirmed by his 708 yards on deep passes, and there's a clear second gear to his downfield burst. He's limited to the vertical route tree, however, and he's not great at adjusting to off-target throws or making plays in contested situations. He'll need an accurate, big-armed quarterback to make proper use of his skill set. Throw in questionable hands -- Fuller dropped 13.9 percent of passes in 2015 and 12.6 percent in 2014, good for 89th and 82nd in the nation, respectively -- and he is a boom-or-bust player who needs the right situation to be successful. While Fuller is still a good prospect, there are a number of better wide receiver options in this draft, and he's better suited as more of a second- or third-round pick.


Xavien Howard, CB, Baylor

Another player with special size and speed, Howard is what NFL teams look for in an ideal cornerback. His tape often looks the part of a first-round pick, but there are bouts of play where he looks completely lost, whether whiffing on a receiver in press coverage at the line of scrimmage or misplaying the ball in the air. In 2015, he had a plus-6.8 coverage grade, which ranked 16 in the draft class. While opposing quarterbacks completed only 37.3 percent of passes against him, a large portion of those plays were simply inaccurate passes to open receivers. Howard showed plenty of positive flashes on tape, but consistency was lacking.


A'Shawn Robinson, DL, Alabama

There's a lot to like about Robinson's game, but he's lacking in an extremely important area: pass-rushing. Built like a classic 3-4 defensive end, Robinson is stout against the run, ranking 13th in the nation each of the past two years, but he has done little to affect the quarterback so his projections at the top end of the first round don't add up. As a pass-rusher, he ranked 197th in 2014 and 115th in 2015, so massive improvement needs to be made for him to be considered more than an early-down run stopper.


Miami (FL) cornerback Artie Burns could be picked in the first round of the draft, but he must improve upon his college career. Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Artie Burns, CB, Miami (FL)

Few things can cloud an evaluation like size and length for a cornerback, and those physical attributes are at the core of Burns' hype as an early pick. At 6-foot with 4.46-second speed in the 40-yard dash, Burns fits the mold of the long, athletic corner that NFL teams covet, but he has a ways to go on the field to live up to that potential. There are plays in which the size and speed show up and others in which Burns looks completely lost. His coverage grade of plus-2.8 ranked 42nd in the draft class, so using a first-round pick on Burns involves a lot of projection.


Vadal Alexander, G, LSU

While it may be harsh to put Alexander on this list, as he's projected to play guard in the NFL, his work at right tackle for LSU was one-dimensional at best. He graded negatively in pass protection each of the past two years, including a minus-6.1 mark that ranked 96th among offensive tackles in the class. He also ranked second in the class with 12 penalties. Alexander fared a little better in the running game where his plus-5.8 grade ranked 33rd in the class. For a guard conversion, however, we'd like to see more dominance at the point of attack. Alexander is a late Day 3 prospect, at best.


Willie Beavers, OT, Western Michigan

Beavers finds himself on many lists as one of the top tackle options in the draft, but there are few kind words to find about his on-field play the past two seasons. He ranked last among the top 118 draft-eligible offensive tackles, struggling mightily in both pass protection and in the running game. Beavers might look the part, but his on-field performance is so poor that the odds of him eventually turning into a viable player are unlikely. His pass-blocking grade was the worst in the draft class and his run-blocking grade was fifth from the bottom.

(04-19-2016, 10:17 AM)Stormborn Wrote: Yep, that's about right. Surprised they left Dodd off the list.

(04-19-2016, 11:34 AM)leonardfan40 Wrote: As a buckeye fan I can confirm both lee and Miller are overrated, although Miller seems to have come back down to earth a bit. Both are so high for their athletic ability (which is not overrated), while their production and experience definitely don't back their draft status.

I'd add both Goff and wentz, Coleman, jalen Marshall (who isn't worth more than a 7th at most imo), Reed, Buckner, and Derek Henry. Sure Im could come up with several more, although they only wanted 10.

Quote:Our analysts see some Steve Smith in Coleman’s game, and have him as a possible top-10 prospect in this class as opposed to the late first-rounder or early second-rounder he’s being viewed as elsewhere. His 10 drops on 84 catchable passes is a minor red flag, but he has the deep speed to burn cornerbacks and also the ability to take a short gain and turn it into a touchdown. He ranked ninth in receiving grade in this draft class, and prior to Baylor’s second quarterback (Jarrett Stidham) going down with a season-ending injury, he led the nation in yards per route run average (eventually finishing second in the class behind TCU’s Josh Doctson).

(04-19-2016, 11:43 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I agree about both QBs. But Coleman actually shows up on PFF's Most underrated prospects list:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/03/14/draft-10-most-underrated-nfl-draft-prospects-for-2016/

(04-19-2016, 12:38 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: PFF is not right 100% of the time. Those 10 drops are way more than a "minor" red flag if you've actually seen them and not just the stat line. He gets way too much space in the system they run and he won't get that nearly that much breathing room in the NFL. I also hate the amount of snaps he just walks but that's a system thing and it either bothers you or it doesn't. He also runs very few routes and adjusting to the NFL will be tough for him. He is not someone that will end up being worth the first round pick he is likely to get. If he makes it to our second then I'd consider him. 

(04-19-2016, 04:15 PM)Stormborn Wrote: I want him accustomed to more routes, but he's fine at the basic vertical group along with slants and screens. He's got the foot work to adjust to more complex branches.

(04-20-2016, 04:37 PM)Okeana Wrote: This is kinda off topic, but if we got coleman in round one and shepard in round 2 I may just shoot a load in my pants.  I think its almost two much talent to invest into a WR position.

(04-19-2016, 11:43 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I agree about both QBs. But Coleman actually shows up on PFF's Most underrated prospects list:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/03/14/draft-10-most-underrated-nfl-draft-prospects-for-2016/

(04-19-2016, 04:15 PM)Stormborn Wrote: Drops are a fair flag, as for the lack of routes and taking plays off, justifiable.

Baylor scheme has QBs only throw to first read, he wasn't the primary option, he was never apart of the play. Opposing teams even knew that. He'll be fine out of the scheme. 

I want him accustomed to more routes, but he's fine at the basic vertical group along with slants and screens. He's got the foot work to adjust to more complex branches.

(04-20-2016, 10:17 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This.  It is like a college DE that gets by on raw physical ability and doesn't have a lot of pass rush moves.  I'd rather take a guy like that and teach him moves than a guy who has already maxed out his ability.  And I'd take a WR who can get deep and teach him routes than a WR who had to depend on route running to get open against college DBs.

(04-20-2016, 04:37 PM)Okeana Wrote: This is kinda off topic, but if we got coleman in round one and shepard in round 2 I may just shoot a load in my pants.  I think its almost two much talent to invest into a WR position.

(04-20-2016, 04:44 PM)WrongVerb Wrote: A few AFC North defenses might have the same reaction.

(04-20-2016, 05:12 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: I've got a question for those who are fans of Coleman.

Do you expect him to be productive in his rookie season like some other recent WR's have or do you think he will need 1+ season to become a real receiving theat?

(04-20-2016, 05:12 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: I've got a question for those who are fans of Coleman.

Do you expect him to be productive in his rookie season like some other recent WR's have or do you think he will need 1+ season to become a real receiving theat?