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My offseason strategy and roster analysis - lostpoet2 - 11-30-2016

Here is my 12-step program of observations and recommendations, by priority, pertaining to each part of the roster. This assumes no coaching changes and does not target specific players in the draft or free agency:

 
1.     Re-evaluate the long-term plan on the offensive line:
 
        -The overall situation is a quagmire in spite of burning the two top picks on project tackles in 2015.
        -Ideally, Marvin's crystal ball reveals whether Ogbuehi and Fisher are busts and if Bodine is serviceable at this point or if an upgrade is needed. There’s a chance Fisher is a solid player, but I’m pretty sure one the young OTs is a bust.

  • I predict that Whitworth plays another year at LT and/or we franchise Zeitler. I don’t see the team giving big contracts to both Bodine and Zeitler.
  • Best case, Fisher is a boss LT, Whit kicks inside, Boling switches to RG, Bodine learns to snap and block, we signing a FA RT and dominate, but why kid ourselves?
  • Worst case, we have the exact same line as this year, but Zeitler leaves and we give Westerman a shot at RG.
  • Somehow I think (unfortunately) our center problems move to the back burner.
 
 
2.     Get some help at DE:
        -MJ90 is on his last legs and is subpar and needs to become a rotational player.
 
  • I assume we will use a round 1-2 pick at this position and let Margus Hunt walk.
  • Get back to an 8-man rotation, for God’s sake. Even Atkins and Dunlap play worse when they never get a break.
 
 
3.     Commit to building a good roster again by drafting BPA
  • No more projects in rounds 1-3.
  • Forego a first round tackle or cornerback, at least this once.
  • Move the roster away from 255 lb linebackers, receivers who can’t get open, and tall defensive ends who aren’t good at football.
 
 
4.     Figure out the path forward in the secondary.
     -We’ve invested a ton of resources, but this year flat out did not gel.
 
  • It looks like Kirkpatrick will be our best player in coverage for the foreseable future, so I would prioritize re-signing him.  Even if Dre isn’t retained, we should have depth with Jackson III entering the picture.
  • Pacman will probably be retained for 2017, but I would like to see him in a reduced (aka special teams and 4th corner) role.
  • I would love to see Shaw or Derron Smith start at safety and Shawn Williams moved to a nickel/hybrid linebacker, but we have yet to see Williams in that role. 
 
 
5.     Say goodbye to Peko, Maualuga, and Nugent. Addition by subtraction.
 
 
6.     Don’t do anything drastic with the running backs this year
  • Assume that Hill will be more of a workhorse back in 2017 due to Gio’s knee injury, so ride him hard on the last year of his rookie contract.
  • See what happens with Burkhead and Peerman.  I would love to keep Burkhead as a short term Barnard replacement and long term committee contributor, but I wouldn’t blame him if he moves on.
  • We can always retain Peerman fairly cheaply and draft a Jeremy Hill replacement in 2018. 
 
 
7.     Utilize internal and cheap resources at DT.
  • Count on Billings and Hardison healing and contributing.
  • Mix and match between Brandon Thompson, DeShawn Williams, and if necessary Pat Sims and Dean Dent/late round guy.
  • Grab a BPA DT if there's another Geno Atkins out there, but don’t target the position.
 
 
8.     Quit wasting roster spots on a bunch of linebackers that suck.
        -With our scheme, it’s better to have two guys on the field who make plays and don't get torched than to have six different one-trick ponies.  
        -Burfict, V. Rey, & Vigil will be back, and assume Flowers makes the team on his last year under contract due to being cheap and athletic.

  • I would love to add a sideline to sideline new school 4-3 linebacker, but we could be ok if we use Williams at linebacker and can get backup service from Dawson.
  • I predict PJ Dawson gets out of the doghouse and we use a mid to late round draft pick on another fast guy.
 
 
9.     Figure out why we can’t throw the ball effectively without a great talent opposite of AJ.
        -Obviously a deep threat with great hands would be welcome on the outside, but most teams would kill to have Green, Eifert, Boyd, and a pair of talented running backs.
        -Also, why can’t our 4th and 5th receivers be guys like a young Marvin Jones who are athletic and were productive in college? Dedicated special teams aces are great when you are augmenting a young Devin Hester, a lights out defense, and a kicker like Justin Tucker.  Those rules do not apply to us.
 
  • I predict we use a mid-round pick in hopes of finding a poor man’s Mike Evans or a sane man’s Chris Henry, but I won’t guarantee it will work.  
 
 
10.  Don’t let McCarron burn a hole in our pocket.
       -He is great insurance
       -We have much bigger issues than trying to monetize a savvy backup
 
  • Only trade him for a godfather offer you can’t refuse.

11.  Roll with existing tight ends and fullback unless you can grab a stud BPA.
 
 
12.  If we make the above moves, we should have the funds to sign a free agent tackle or center and fix the offensive line.
       -The Falcons rebuilt line with Ryan Schraeder at RT and Alex Mack at C proves that improvement is possible.
        -I doubt this actually happens.

RE: My offseason strategy and roster analysis - bengalsturntup926 - 11-30-2016

I'm scared to get rid of mccaron myself, I think they will try driskel at #2,not good. Michael Johnson fell off apparently. No rush hardly at all from him. Would love to get another DE. If marvin doesn't leave which probably won't, I hope they at least go after a new OC. Pauly is ok not horrible but not good. I think it's wishful thinking all 3 will be gone with peko and them.hopefully at least one or two. Most Likely just nugent lol. He's in his final year, and I think that's why they didn't bench him. Because he's paid. My hopes is lafell leaves and we look for a legit #2.I do not know what they will do about the o line.

RE: My offseason strategy and roster analysis - lostpoet2 - 12-01-2016

(11-30-2016, 11:46 PM)bengalsturntup926 Wrote: I'm scared to get rid of mccaron myself, I think they will try driskel at #2,not good.  Michael Johnson fell off apparently. No rush hardly at all from him. Would love to get another DE. If marvin doesn't leave which probably won't, I hope they at least go after a new OC.  Pauly is ok not horrible but not good. I think it's wishful thinking all 3 will be gone with peko and them.hopefully at least one or two. Most Likely just nugent lol. He's in his final year, and I think that's why they didn't bench him. Because he's paid. My hopes is lafell leaves and we look for a legit #2.I do not know what they will do about the o line.

Agreed.  I don't see much downside to just letting McCarron play out his contract.  The team definitely will do something at DE, although I wouldn't be opposed to signing LaFell to another cheap one year deal if we need him as a stop gap/mentor while younger guys develop.

RE: My offseason strategy and roster analysis - Go Cards - 12-01-2016

Think we have to trade McCarron after the season. Or just let him walk for free at seasons completion.

Because he will want to be a starter and leave to be one as soon as becoming FA. Which is after next season.

Plus we could certainly use extra picks and a good free agent or two it appears at this point.

RE: My offseason strategy and roster analysis - Go Cards - 12-01-2016

Can get behind most of the rest though.

Nice post

RE: My offseason strategy and roster analysis - corpjet - 12-01-2016

#1 We must trade McCarron either for draft picks or an established/cheap LB or DE.

#2 Pick at least 3 lineman in the draft in the first 5 rounds, one of them has to be a day one starter

#3 Resign Dre, Burkhead and Zeitler all others walk unless Whit takes a hometown discount

#4 Find LB'ers who can play, both through the draft and in FA

#5 Hopefully have a new hard nosed coach who doesn't take any BS

RE: My offseason strategy and roster analysis - Wyche'sWarrior - 12-01-2016

Great post OP.  I think A LOT of our ills are tied to both trenches.  We need help across the board there.

RE: My offseason strategy and roster analysis - lostpoet2 - 12-01-2016

(12-01-2016, 04:13 PM)corpjet Wrote: #1 We must trade McCarron either for draft picks or an established/cheap LB or DE.

#2  Pick at least 3 lineman in the draft in the first 5 rounds, one of them has to be a day one starter

#3  Resign Dre, Burkhead and Zeitler all others walk unless Whit takes a hometown discount

#4  Find LB'ers who can play, both through the draft and in FA

#5  Hopefully have a new hard nosed coach who doesn't take any BS

I like the idea of trading McCarron for a LB-a lot of teams consider them to be cheap commodities. In your scenario, who would be playing LT and RT next year? Some combination of Fisher, Ogbuehi, and 1-2 rookies?