WR Market Struggling

[Rubekahn29]

(03-17-2021, 11:01 AM)Au165 Wrote: I think we are still in a solid position with all the WR's currently out there to get a solid veteran upgrade. 

Yeahs it’s not like they need some star. Tee 1, Boyd 2 are solid. Just need some speed and depth.

[fredtoast]

(03-17-2021, 09:51 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I really wasn't planning on a FA WR. But this is the type of market we should probably be dipping in to.

Although I never thought we would spend huge money on a free agent WR I was pretty sure we would sign one.

Compared to other positions WRs are fairly cheap in free agency if you don't sign one of the very top guys.

I love Higgins and Boyd, but the WR talent on our roster falls off a cliff after those two and our #3 WR is basically a starter.

[SErebel11]

Bengals should sign Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant and AJ Green all 3 for 10M total. That could be entertaining!

[CJD]

Should I spend a 2nd round pick on a guy who can get me 50 receptions and 800 yards in his rookie year? Or should I spend 13 million dollars per year for virtually the same production?

Hmmmm

[CJD]

(03-16-2021, 05:05 PM)CoachGeorge Wrote: Creed Humphrey in the 3rd??  He will be gone by the time we pick in the 2nd.

Every year, we get a few draft Nostradamuses who know where a guy will go...

[fredtoast]

(03-17-2021, 12:32 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Should I spend a 2nd round pick on a guy who can get me 50 receptions and 800 yards in his rookie year? Or should I spend 13 million dollars per year for virtually the same production?

Hmmmm

Over the last 10 years there have been 48 WRs taken in the second round.  Only 10 of them had 800 yards as a rookie.  So you have about a one-in-five of finding one.

In fact, there have only been 13 taken in the FIRST round who had 800 yards as a rookie.

[CJD]

(03-17-2021, 12:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Over the last 10 years there have been 48 WRs taken in the second round.  Only 10 of them had 800 yards as a rookie.  So you have about a one-in-five of finding one.

In fact, there have only been 13 taken in the FIRST round who had 800 yards as a rookie.

At a glance, it appears as though 5 of those 10 were in the last two years though:
Chase Claypool, 2nd round, 62 rec, 873 yards, 9 TD
Tee Higgins, 2nd round, 67 rec, 908 yards, 6 TD
DK Metcalf, 2nd round, 58 rec, 900 yards, 7 TD
AJ Brown, 2nd round, 52 rec, 1051 yards, 8 TD
Deebo Samuel, 2nd round, 57 rec, 802 yards, 3 TD

And then, if you don't want to go by the strict numbers I listed (which I thought were obviously a bit of an exaggeration, but it's hard to portray these things online), there was also:
Laviska Shenault, 2nd round, 58 rec, 600 yards, 5 TD
Diontae Johnson, 3rd round, 59 rec, 680 yards, 5 TD
Mecole Hardman, 3rd round, 26 rec, 538 yards, 6 TD
Terry McLaurin, 3rd round, 58 rec, 919 yards, 7 TD

And that doesn't include the first round receivers who also had early success in the last few years like Jefferson, Aiyuk, Lamb, Brown and Jeudy.

The point is why overspend in free agency when, in recent years, high round WRs are producing a lot early in their careers right now, as opposed to defensive players and offensive linemen who typically have a steeper learning curve and thus are more valuable in free agency.

Especially since this draft is also purported to be an extremely deep WR class. This WR free agency being slow makes perfect sense, from my perspective.

[*Synric*]

(03-17-2021, 01:21 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: At a glance, it appears as though 5 of those 10 were in the last two years though:
Chase Claypool, 2nd round, 62 rec, 873 yards, 9 TD
Tee Higgins, 2nd round, 67 rec, 908 yards, 6 TD
DK Metcalf, 2nd round, 58 rec, 900 yards, 7 TD
AJ Brown, 2nd round, 52 rec, 1051 yards, 8 TD
Deebo Samuel, 2nd round, 57 rec, 802 yards, 3 TD

And then, if you don't want to go by the strict numbers I listed (which I thought were obviously a bit of an exaggeration, but it's hard to portray these things online), there was also:
Laviska Shenault, 2nd round, 58 rec, 600 yards, 5 TD
Diontae Johnson, 3rd round, 59 rec, 680 yards, 5 TD
Mecole Hardman, 3rd round, 26 rec, 538 yards, 6 TD
Terry McLaurin, 3rd round, 58 rec, 919 yards, 7 TD

And that doesn't include the first round receivers who also had early success in the last few years like Jefferson, Aiyuk, Lamb, Brown and Jeudy.

The point is why overspend in free agency when, in recent years, high round WRs are producing a lot early in their careers right now, as opposed to defensive players and offensive linemen who typically have a steeper learning curve and thus are more valuable in free agency.

Especially since this draft is also purported to be an extremely deep WR class. This WR free agency being slow makes perfect sense, from my perspective.

That's why the WR Free Agency is taking a dive and you are committing a 1st or 2nd round pick to WR. 

Taking a Free Agent receiver as the Bengals #3 opens the draft up for more expensive/more rare positions you would see in Free Agency like Offensive and Defensive Lines.

[CJD]

(03-17-2021, 01:31 PM)Synric Wrote: That's why the WR Free Agency is taking a dive and you are committing a 1st or 2nd round pick to WR. 

Taking a Free Agent receiver as the Bengals #3 opens the draft up for more expensive/more rare positions you would see in Free Agency like Offensive and Defensive Lines.

I don't know exactly what the bust rates are for offensive and defensive linemen vs WRs, but it is my perception that taking a rookie at WR is safer than taking a rookie at OT, especially since if a rookie WR is ineffective, they just don't get the ball. If a rookie OT is ineffective, they could get your QB killed.

If I was given the choice between getting a WR in free agency and taking an OT in the draft or getting an OT in free agency and drafting a WR, I'd take the latter just for risk abatement for your QB. The fact that rookie WRs have been producing early in their careers recently is just a cherry on top, in my opinion.

[fredtoast]

(03-17-2021, 01:21 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The point is why overspend in free agency when, in recent years, high round WRs are producing a lot early in their careers right now, as opposed to defensive players and offensive linemen who typically have a steeper learning curve and thus are more valuable in free agency.

When you have a total of 5 over an 8 year span and then 5 in two years I would guess that the last two years are anomaly.

[CJD]

(03-17-2021, 01:44 PM)fredtoast Wrote: When you have a total of 5 over an 8 year span and then 5 in two years I would guess that the last two years are anomaly.

Or the beginning of a shift in tendency. If this year's draft class is equally successful it will be a pretty good indication of that rather than an anomaly. 

[*jason*]

(03-17-2021, 12:21 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: Yeahs it’s not like they need some star. Tee 1, Boyd 2 are solid. Just need some speed and depth.

I dunno why we get so caught up in that though... Boyd's a nice number 2. He's an even better number 3. At this point I say pounce on the depressed market and get a Golladay or Fuller... Even on a one year rental.

[Rubekahn29]

(03-17-2021, 01:49 PM)jason Wrote: I dunno why we get so caught up in that though... Boyd's a nice number 2. He's an even better number 3. At this point I say pounce on the depressed market and get a Golladay or Fuller... Even on a one year rental.

I guess I’m thinking in terms of priority. More money needs thrown at OL than WR.

[*jason*]

(03-17-2021, 01:53 PM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: I guess I’m thinking in terms of priority. More money needs thrown at OL than WR.

Oh I agree... But if that's falling through, why not get in where we can fit in? There's nothing wrong with having the best WR trio in the NFL. Of course we'd have to draft the hell outta the trenches next month or May or whenever it is...

[coachmcneil71]

I thought that Emmanuel Sanders would have been a good fit for us. Oh well.

[Au165]

(03-17-2021, 02:06 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: I thought that Emmanuel Sanders would have been a good fit for us. Oh well.

I figured he needed to be somewhere with a really clear #1 and he got that in Buffalo. Right now we have two really good 2's and that is fine, I don't subscribe to needing a one but I wouldn't mind getting another really good 2 just because of the issues that creates for a defense. 

[pulses]

(03-17-2021, 12:22 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Although I never thought we would spend huge money on a free agent WR I was pretty sure we would sign one.

Compared to other positions WRs are fairly cheap in free agency if you don't sign one of the very top guys.

I love Higgins and Boyd, but the WR talent on our roster falls off a cliff after those two and our #3 WR is basically a starter.

It's good to see someone agrees with me. Some think our WR group is just fine and it's not.

[coachmcneil71]

(03-17-2021, 02:51 PM)Au165 Wrote: I figured he needed to be somewhere with a really clear #1 and he got that in Buffalo. Right now we have two really good 2's and that is fine, I don't subscribe to needing a one but I wouldn't mind getting another really good 2 just because of the issues that creates for a defense. 

Agree. I just thought his skill set ( although declining) could be a good fit with TB and Higgs. Still some help out there to be had.

[Au165]

Turns out we have an offer on the table to Golladay which is mind blowing.

[Rubekahn29]

(03-17-2021, 07:46 PM)Au165 Wrote: Turns out we have an offer on the table to Golladay which is mind blowing.

Probably low ball.