You CAN'T "always get a starter" in the 3rd or 4th round.

[fredtoast]

I have seen a lot of posts here about how we can take take certain positions in the first two rounds and then "Always get a starter at X" in the 3rd or 4th round. The odds are against finding a starter in the 3rd and/or 4th rounds

In the decade from 2009 to 2018 there were 350 players taken in the third round (including comp picks). Almost two-thirds (225) never started as many as 32 games. Only about 1 in 4 (93) started more than 48 games.

Of course the numbers for the 4th round are worse. Three quarters (266 of 355) of players taken in the 4th round failed to start 32 games. Only about 1 in 7 (14%) started more than 48 games.

Of course we have to hope that our 3rd and 4th round picks will become starters, but if we have a clear need at an important position then we need to address it in the first 2 rounds.

[kalibengal]

(03-29-2021, 07:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have seen a lot of posts here about how we can take take certain positions in the first two rounds and then "Always get a starter at X" in the 3rd or 4th round.  The odds are against finding a starter in the 3rd and/or 4th rounds

In the decade from 2009 to 2018 there were 350 players taken in the third round (including comp picks).  Almost two-thirds (225) never started as many as 32 games.  Only about 1 in 4 (93) started more than 48 games.

Of course the numbers for the 4th round are worse.  Three quarters (266 of 355) of players taken in the 4th round failed to start 32 games.  Only about 1 in 7 (14%) started more than 48 games.

Of course we have to hope that our 3rd and 4th round picks will become starters, but if we have a clear need at an important position then we need to address it in the first 2 rounds.

would be nice to know what the % are for undrafted FAs. Burfict comes to mind and our new slot corner, Hilton was undrafted.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Come on. No one is saying you can always get a starter in round 3 or 4.

It is just a hell of a lot easier at some spots than others. Centers, guards, safeties, linebackers, and tight ends rarely go top 10. Usually 1-2 in the first round in total. RBs in that category as well. Thus, I can get the best RB or S or LB or C or G in the draft at bottom 1st or top 2nd. Not true with QBs, CBs, or OTs.

QBs, OTs (especially LTs), and CBs are much more likely to go high. And elite players at those spots are much less lokely to be drafted later on.

I'd put WRs and DTs in the middle.

Thus, if a team is looking for an elite QB, CB, or OT, they usually take them with top 10 picks. Other positions are easier to fill later on.

This is not controversial. At all.

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2021, 07:47 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Thus, if a team is looking for an elite QB, CB, or OT, they usually take them with top 10 picks. Other positions are easier to fill later on.

This is not controversial. At all.

I agree with this except I would add DE/Edge rusher as a position where the elite players are more likely to be taken early.

[AQIndianHill]

(03-29-2021, 07:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have seen a lot of posts here about how we can take take certain positions in the first two rounds and then "Always get a starter at X" in the 3rd or 4th round.  The odds are against finding a starter in the 3rd and/or 4th rounds

In the decade from 2009 to 2018 there were 350 players taken in the third round (including comp picks).  Almost two-thirds (225) never started as many as 32 games.  Only about 1 in 4 (93) started more than 48 games.

Of course the numbers for the 4th round are worse.  Three quarters (266 of 355) of players taken in the 4th round failed to start 32 games.  Only about 1 in 7 (14%) started more than 48 games.

Of course we have to hope that our 3rd and 4th round picks will become starters, but if we have a clear need at an important position then we need to address it in the first 2 rounds.

Wow, what great insight.  Definitely deserved of a new thread. 

In case everyone needed clarity,  you 'cant' always get starters in the later rounds of the NFL draft 

This is huge.  I had no idea!

[AQIndianHill]

The bengals drafted Price, Ogbuehi, Ross, Dennard in the 1st, and none of them were starters either.

[SunsetBengal]

If were talking about the Bengals, I'd argue that you CAN'T always get a starter in the 1st round, either..

However, the Bengals 2nd round history looks pretty solid.

[Murdock2420]

(03-29-2021, 07:59 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: If were talking about the Bengals, I'd argue that you CAN'T always get a starter in the 1st round, either..

However, the Bengals 2nd round history looks pretty solid.  

I have a call from a Mr. Drew Sample on line one for you sir. 

[SunsetBengal]

(03-29-2021, 08:05 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I have a call from a Mr. Drew Sample on line one for you sir. 

He's the anomaly, so far.  The good news is, he's still young enough to live up to that draft slot, if utilized properly.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(03-29-2021, 08:25 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: He's the anomaly, so far.  The good news is, he's still young enough to live up to that draft slot, if utilized properly.

Eh, we’ve had some other whiffs in the 2nd in semi-recent years:

Jake Fisher
Margus Hunt
Devon Still

It is probably our best round overall historically speaking though.

[SunsetBengal]

(03-29-2021, 08:05 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I have a call from a Mr. Drew Sample on line one for you sir. 

(03-29-2021, 08:37 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Eh, we’ve had some other whiffs in the 2nd in semi-recent years:

Jake Fisher
Margus Hunt
Devon Still

It is probably our best round overall historically speaking though.

You guys aren't helping..  You're actually making statements that by proxy support the OP's assertion.  However, he is correct in the fact that you can't "count" on getting 1st year starters in any specific round of the draft.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Of course not. Think this was common knowledge to most.

Although I think we got a couple good Linebackers in the 3rd and 4th last year that will be starters, especially Wilson.

[Destro]

Haven't drafted anyone who has helped us win a playoff game since the 80's.

*takes a slow drag off of his cigar and a slight sip from his glass*
*he leans his head back, letting out a deep sigh*
*glancing over at his Boomer jersey, a single tear rolls rolls down his cheek*

[Gdale_Bengal]

It makes selections like Geno Atkins that much sweeter

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

(03-29-2021, 07:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have seen a lot of posts here about how we can take take certain positions in the first two rounds and then "Always get a starter at X" in the 3rd or 4th round.  The odds are against finding a starter in the 3rd and/or 4th rounds

In the decade from 2009 to 2018 there were 350 players taken in the third round (including comp picks).  Almost two-thirds (225) never started as many as 32 games.  Only about 1 in 4 (93) started more than 48 games.

Of course the numbers for the 4th round are worse.  Three quarters (266 of 355) of players taken in the 4th round failed to start 32 games.  Only about 1 in 7 (14%) started more than 48 games.

Of course we have to hope that our 3rd and 4th round picks will become starters, but if we have a clear need at an important position then we need to address it in the first 2 rounds.

Personally we should put ourselves in a position where no rookie should HAVE to be a starter. Compete with a less than ideal veteran sure, but it sucks to be like yeah we got to hit on these 3 rookies this year or it's a bust.

[Wes Mantooth]

(03-29-2021, 07:55 PM)AQIndianHill Wrote: Wow, what great insight.  Definitely deserved of a new thread. 

In case everyone needed clarity,  you 'cant' always get starters in the later rounds of the NFL draft 

This is huge.  I had no idea!

Can we start a petition to ban this dude? 

I don't know what's more anoying, you being a dick in every post, or that it is resulting in me standing up for Fred.  I think it's a pretty good thread, and he put some work into it.  So I don't get why you gotta be a turd about it.

Here's a thought, why don't you start your own thread.  Something you think is worthy and actually want to talk about.  I'd be very curious to see what it is you have to offer.  My guess?  Not much.  It seems your whole a m.o is just offering short, snide BS that contributes nothing to the conversation.

Go ahead, start one up. Wow us all.

[Joelist]

(03-29-2021, 11:37 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Can we start a petition to ban this dude? 

I don't know what's more anoying, you being a dick in every post, or that it is resulting in me standing up for Fred.  I think it's a pretty good thread, and he put some work into it.  So I don't get why you gotta be a turd about it.

Here's a thought, why don't you start your own thread.  Something you think is worthy and actually want to talk about.  I'd be very curious to see what it is you have to offer.  My guess?  Not much.  It seems your whole a m.o is just offering short, snide BS that contributes nothing to the conversation.

Go ahead, start one up.  Wow us all.

I think your wish may have been granted. 

[Schmitbuck]

I don't expect anyone to do the legwork of calculating the percentages, but I wonder how much better the odds of a finding a starter would go up if the pick is in the first 10 of the 3rd/4th vs the last 10 of the round.

Count me in the crowd not expecting a starter in rounds 3 or 4, but if an O-lineman is drafted in round 3, I'd expect they're being groomed to start in year 2. Not sure about other positions with the current depth chart, maybe DT, TE, and WR3.

[grampahol]

I hate to break the bad news, but my sources tell me that picking, well, pretty much anything first your odds go way up over picking last.. Heck, picking apples in the grocery store go way up if you're the first person in the store looking for apples.. Looking for a used car cheap? Be the first person to call about that good, cheap used car.. Looking for toilet paper first day of a pandemic? Check.. Looking for a mask first day, check..Looking to get your ass beat first in a fight against someone twice your size? check.. Yup..being first definitely has it's advantages.. Well..maybe sometimes.. That last one there is up to debate..

[XenoMorph]

(03-29-2021, 07:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have seen a lot of posts here about how we can take take certain positions in the first two rounds and then "Always get a starter at X" in the 3rd or 4th round.  The odds are against finding a starter in the 3rd and/or 4th rounds

In the decade from 2009 to 2018 there were 350 players taken in the third round (including comp picks).  Almost two-thirds (225) never started as many as 32 games.  Only about 1 in 4 (93) started more than 48 games.

Of course the numbers for the 4th round are worse.  Three quarters (266 of 355) of players taken in the 4th round failed to start 32 games.  Only about 1 in 7 (14%) started more than 48 games.

Of course we have to hope that our 3rd and 4th round picks will become starters, but if we have a clear need at an important position then we need to address it in the first 2 rounds.

we are lucky to get a starter in the 1st...