You CAN'T "always get a starter" in the 3rd or 4th round.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-29-2021, 07:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have seen a lot of posts here about how we can take take certain positions in the first two rounds and then "Always get a starter at X" in the 3rd or 4th round.  The odds are against finding a starter in the 3rd and/or 4th rounds

In the decade from 2009 to 2018 there were 350 players taken in the third round (including comp picks).  Almost two-thirds (225) never started as many as 32 games.  Only about 1 in 4 (93) started more than 48 games.

Of course the numbers for the 4th round are worse.  Three quarters (266 of 355) of players taken in the 4th round failed to start 32 games.  Only about 1 in 7 (14%) started more than 48 games.

Of course we have to hope that our 3rd and 4th round picks will become starters, but if we have a clear need at an important position then we need to address it in the first 2 rounds.

Exactly.
3rd and 4th round are best used as rotational pieces who may need a couple years to develop toward becoming a full-time starter.
1st and 2nd round (especially Top 50 picks) are the ones we should expect to start.
Anything Rd 5 and later I just basically consider depth or ST and maybe one day they'll become a starter, but not counting on it.

[TJ528]

(03-30-2021, 08:48 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: we are lucky to get a starter in the 1st...

So going back and looking at our first round draft picks since 2010 it's crazy to think that AJ is the best of the bunch.  Your 1st pick should always have an instant impact and Kirkland, Dennard, Ogbuehi, Ross, Price, Williams none of them had an instant impact.   WJIII was probably the next best below Green IMO.  

When you look at the teams 3rd and 4th round picks since say 2015, 

2015 - Kroft, Dawson, Shaw, Hardison...none of those guys I think stayed with the team very long. 

2016 - Vigil and Billings again mehhhhh

2017 - Was a draw - pick up Willis in the 3rd, Lawson, Malone, Glasgow in the 4th

2018 - Jefferson  and Mark Walton

So those were the last of the Marvin years and needless to say none of those players are still with the Bengals, and with the exception of Lawson they pretty much all sucked. 

Looking at Zac's 3rd and 4th round:

2019 - Trading up to get Ryan Finley (now of the Texans), Wren (has he played a snap for the Bengals?) and the famous Michael Jordan.  So 3 stellar draft picks there

2020 - Logan Wilson (good pick. still to be seen if it's a great pick) and Davis - Gaither again still to be seen if it's a good pick.  

So yea anyone saying we can pick up a starting the 3rd or 4th round is out of their mind and has never paid attention to this teams ability to draft of late.  

When your a team like the Bengals you have to hit on draft picks.  Thats the ONLY reason we were good in 2014 and for the period during Marvin Lewis run with the team is because the team drafted well.  The team isn't going to bring in stout free agents as we can see this year when we had money for free agency so we NEED to hit on draft picks and we just havent done that in a long time.  

[CJD]

I've seen the idea that we could grab a starting guard in the 3rd or 4th and I just have nightmarish flashbacks to Michael Jordan falling on Burrow's knee.

[fredtoast]

(03-29-2021, 08:59 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Of course not. Think this was common knowledge to most.

I have seen a lot of posts about how we can wait for the third or fourth round to get a starting OG.

[Gdale_Bengal]

And as we all know you can find receivers with speed and great hands late in the draft

[TJ528]

(03-30-2021, 09:42 AM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: And as we all know you can find receivers with speed and great hands late in the draft

I think the last good receiver we drafted with speed and good hands was TJ Hous.  

Tate is an okay receiver.  He's not a 3rd receiver he's too inconsistent. 

If he's anything maybe a 4th or 5th wide out.  

[XenoMorph]

(03-30-2021, 09:27 AM)TJ528 Wrote: So going back and looking at our first round draft picks since 2010 it's crazy to think that AJ is the best of the bunch.  Your 1st pick should always have an instant impact and Kirkland, Dennard, Ogbuehi, Ross, Price, Williams none of them had an instant impact.   WJIII was probably the next best below Green IMO.  

When you look at the teams 3rd and 4th round picks since say 2015, 

2015 - Kroft, Dawson, Shaw, Hardison...none of those guys I think stayed with the team very long. 

2016 - Vigil and Billings again mehhhhh

2017 - Was a draw - pick up Willis in the 3rd, Lawson, Malone, Glasgow in the 4th

2018 - Jefferson  and Mark Walton

So those were the last of the Marvin years and needless to say none of those players are still with the Bengals, and with the exception of Lawson they pretty much all sucked. 

Looking at Zac's 3rd and 4th round:

2019 - Trading up to get Ryan Finley (now of the Texans), Wren (has he played a snap for the Bengals?) and the famous Michael Jordan.  So 3 stellar draft picks there

2020 - Logan Wilson (good pick. still to be seen if it's a great pick) and Davis - Gaither again still to be seen if it's a good pick.  

So yea anyone saying we can pick up a starting the 3rd or 4th round is out of their mind and has never paid attention to this teams ability to draft of late.  

When your a team like the Bengals you have to hit on draft picks.  Thats the ONLY reason we were good in 2014 and for the period during Marvin Lewis run with the team is because the team drafted well.  The team isn't going to bring in stout free agents as we can see this year when we had money for free agency so we NEED to hit on draft picks and we just havent done that in a long time.  

draft picks are like buy scratch off tickets lots of potential nothing gaurenteed

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-30-2021, 09:29 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I have seen a lot of posts about how we can wait for the third or fourth round to get a starting OG.

I could see OT with how deep it is at this position but that even there it would be a gamble to wait till the 4th.

Guard isn't as deep as OT, not even close. Think we can get a starter in the 2nd but gets risky waiting till the 3rd.

Meinerz, Carman, Creed Humphrey, Dickerson could all be starters but even then all might need to be groomed a year.

(03-30-2021, 09:48 AM)TJ528 Wrote: I think the last good receiver we drafted with speed and good hands was TJ Hous.  

Tate is an okay receiver.  He's not a 3rd receiver he's too inconsistent. 

If he's anything maybe a 4th or 5th wide out.  

Marvin Lewis Jones I believe was a 5th round pick and he is pretty good.

[TJ528]

(03-30-2021, 01:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I could see OT with how deep it is at this position but that even there it would be a gamble to wait till the 4th.

Guard isn't as deep as OT, not even close. Think we can get a starter in the 2nd but gets risky waiting till the 3rd.

Meinerz, Carman, Creed Humphrey, Dickerson could all be starters but even then all might need to be groomed a year.


Marvin Lewis Jones I believe was a 5th round pick and he is pretty good.

Well TJ Hous was a hell of a reciever too considering he was drafted in the 7th round, but a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. 

Bengals history since 2010 of drafting WR late in the draft: 
Ryan Whalen - 2011
Dezom Briscoe - 2010
Marvin Jones - 2012 GREAT find
Cobi Hamilton - 2013
James Wright - 2014
Mario Alfred - 2015
Cody Core - 2016
Auden Tate - 2018 - Mehhhh

So we found 1 great wide receiver in the 5-7th round  and a lot of other trash and special team players.  

[Destro]

How about we tend to do fairly poorly at drafting, period. It gets worse as the picks go on. Are there outliers? Of course, there always is. We get some slam dunks, which everyone saw coming, but we do tend to have flame outs.  

I don't know. Maybe there is something they could do...like get a group of people who look at college players a free agents and decide things. Maybe an entire department of talent evaluators. Wonder if something like that exists.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-30-2021, 09:48 AM)TJ528 Wrote: I think the last good receiver we drafted with speed and good hands was TJ Hous.  

Tate is an okay receiver.  He's not a 3rd receiver he's too inconsistent. 

If he's anything maybe a 4th or 5th wide out.  

Housh wasn't fast...

Sure you're not thinking of Marvin Jones?

[TJ528]

(03-30-2021, 02:37 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Housh wasn't fast...

Sure you're not thinking of Marvin Jones?

Hey now Hous wasnt slow...dude was a great #2 receiver.  

[*ochocincos*]

(03-30-2021, 02:44 PM)TJ528 Wrote: Hey now Hous wasnt slow...dude was a great #2 receiver.  

He was slow. Dude ran in the 4.6's.
He was a sure-handed, big body guy who ran good routes.

[grampahol]

(03-30-2021, 02:21 PM)Destro Wrote: How about we tend to do fairly poorly at drafting, period. It gets worse as the picks go on. Are there outliers? Of course, there always is. We get some slam dunks, which everyone saw coming, but we do tend to have flame outs.  

I don't know. Maybe there is something they could do...like get a group of people who look at college players a free agents and decide things. Maybe an entire department of talent evaluators. Wonder if something like that exists.

I'll do it even though I don't watch college football much or other teams, but dammit! I know a good thing when I see it based on how they pour ketchup!

[XenoMorph]

(03-30-2021, 01:19 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Marvin Lewis Jones I believe was a 5th round pick and he is pretty good.

he was basically the pick we got for chad... ( we had back to back picks there so it might not be exact but basically)

[XenoMorph]

(03-30-2021, 02:04 PM)TJ528 Wrote: Well TJ Hous was a hell of a reciever too considering he was drafted in the 7th round, but a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. 

Bengals history since 2010 of drafting WR late in the draft: 
Ryan Whalen - 2011
Dezom Briscoe - 2010
Marvin Jones - 2012 GREAT find
Cobi Hamilton - 2013
James Wright - 2014
Mario Alfred - 2015
Cody Core - 2016
Auden Tate - 2018 - Mehhhh

So we found 1 great wide receiver in the 5-7th round  and a lot of other trash and special team players.  

dang our Undrafted's have faired better than some of these folks

Jake Kamerow is still bouncing around the league i think

[WeezyBengal]

We can't hit on OL help in the first round, so might as well take them in the second.

[*rfaulk34*]

(03-29-2021, 07:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have seen a lot of posts here about how we can take take certain positions in the first two rounds and then "Always get a starter at X" in the 3rd or 4th round.  The odds are against finding a starter in the 3rd and/or 4th rounds

In the decade from 2009 to 2018 there were 350 players taken in the third round (including comp picks).  Almost two-thirds (225) never started as many as 32 games.  Only about 1 in 4 (93) started more than 48 games.

Of course the numbers for the 4th round are worse.  Three quarters (266 of 355) of players taken in the 4th round failed to start 32 games.  Only about 1 in 7 (14%) started more than 48 games.

Of course we have to hope that our 3rd and 4th round picks will become starters, but if we have a clear need at an important position then we need to address it in the first 2 rounds.

Could you kindly point out where a couple of these posts are? I found yang and coach, but that's been it up to now.