My thoughts on drafting WR first

[Burma]

I was watching Top Gear Series 14, the Romania special. Watching them take these exotic, high speed, super cars across Romanian roads and goat paths made think of drafting Ja'Marr Chase and kicking the O-line can to the 2nd round.  It seemed apropos.   So I made this.

Forgive the double text layer on this gif, I could not find a copy without the orinial dialogue.

[Nicomo Cosca]

The tantrums the “OL at 5 or bust” crowd have been throwing here recently are really getting embarrassing.

[Burma]

(04-01-2021, 11:24 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The tantrums the “OL at 5 or bust” crowd have been throwing here recently are really getting embarrassing.

If this was a tantrum, Nicomo, then you live a very tranquil and idealic life.  Good for you.  

[Gdale_Bengal]

(04-01-2021, 11:24 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The tantrums the “OL at 5 or bust” crowd have been throwing here recently are really getting embarrassing.

Pretty true. This one isn’t a super cry tantrum, but one of those half-assed I’m not getting my way so I’m gonna do something that irritates people tantrum in front of everyone so my parents get embarrassed.

We should all be excited at the thought of drafting 3 potentially generational talents this year. You can’t do wrong so long as you get one.

[*bfine32*]

Really don'r consider the OP to be a tantrum. of course a retort could be a broken down Pinto crossing a great bridge.

[Burma]

(04-01-2021, 11:48 AM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Pretty true. This one isn’t a super cry tantrum, but one of those half-assed I’m not getting my way so I’m gonna do something that irritates people tantrum in front of everyone so my parents get embarrassed.

We should all be excited at the thought of drafting 3 potentially generational talents this year. You can’t do wrong so long as you get one.

Ouch, that really stings.  I spent a good 15 minutes playing with an editing tool.  I like to think my parents would be proud. Maybe yours had higher standards.  That was probably hard to live up to.  

It's hard to be excited for 2 generational talents when it is painfully obvious that there is a glaring weakness that may prevent them from taking the Bengals to a championship. Just like our last generational talent, AJ Green.

[Burma]

(04-01-2021, 11:54 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Really don'r consider the OP to be a tantrum. of course a retort could be a broken down Pinto crossing a great bridge.

Look at that pinto on a good solid bridge.  It's hauling so much ass it's blurred!

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-01-2021, 11:56 AM)Burma Wrote: Ouch, that really stings.  I spent a good 15 minutes playing with an editing tool.  I like to think my parents would be proud. Maybe yours had higher standards.  That was probably hard to live up to.  

It's hard to be excited for 2 generational talents when it is painfully obvious that there is a glaring weakness that may prevent them from taking the Bengals to a championship. Just like our last generational talent, AJ Green.

The OL did not hold those 2011-15 teams back whatsoever.

And we’re now at least a couple years away from contending (and that’s if we replace Taylor and everything goes right). This idea that literally everything has to be fixed in this one single draft is not realistic.

[Beaker]

O line in the second round and third round and taking the best non QB player available in the first is a much better proposition for future success.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(04-01-2021, 12:02 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The OL did not hold those 2011-15 teams back whatsoever.

And we’re now at least a couple years away from contending (and that’s if we replace Taylor and everything goes right). This idea that literally everything has to be fixed in this one single draft is not realistic.

Debatable that signing an Alex Mack to replace the weak link in Bodine could have pushed the offense over the top. Our lone weakness was pressure up the gut in the QBs face. There were many discussions about it on the old board, and here.

[Burma]

(04-01-2021, 12:02 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The OL did not hold those 2011-15 teams back whatsoever.

And we’re now at least a couple years away from contending (and that’s if we replace Taylor and everything goes right). This idea that literally everything has to be fixed in this one single draft is not realistic.

I agree, the line then was very solid.  The only complaining I can recall now is Bodine being Bodine and Andre Smith not living up to the hype.  Then they drafted Ced and Fisher, which seemed like a solid move at the time, unfortunately we know how that went.  And the decline really started in 2015 with Ced at RT, and continued declining as Zietler, Whit, and Boling left.  It hasn't been truly fixed yet. 

It is all too obvious the Bengals have too many holes to fix in just 1 draft,  but they have the chance to potentially solve the O-line problem at the cost of 2 high draft picks.  That, to me, would pay much greater dividends than adding a great receiver to the 2 very good ones they have and selecting a 2nd tier O lineman.

I am going to put this here just for reference. This chart stops at 2017 but the trend is clear and to fill in the gaps 2018 ranking: 27th. 2019 ranking: 30th, 2020: 30th.

(04-01-2021, 12:05 PM)Beaker Wrote: O line in the second round and third round and taking the best non QB player available in the first is a much better proposition for future success.

Also this is from a post I put in the draft forum.  Since 2016 there has been a very large difference in grades for OT selected in round 1 vs round 2. Tackles drafted in round 1 have averaged out to a grade of 72.52 and Tackles taken in round 2 have graded out to an average of 56.38 (which is almost 2 points lower than the Bengals starting guards graded at last year   )

Quote:This is a snapshot of the PFF grades for all the Tackles draft since 2016.  I looked at their first year grades and the 2020 season grades.  Initially the gap in grade between 1st and 2nd round was sizable (@10 points) but that gap got bigger as the players matured (@ 16 points).  To put this in perspective the 2nd round guys, over time, have reached a level of play slightly below what the Benglas offensive guards scored this past season.  The 1st round selections have averaged out to about 2 points higher than the average score of the Bengals current OT combination (Williams 70.1 and Reiff 71.4).


Also of the 48 tackles drafted 8 were converted to guards. Only 1 1st round tackle, Germain Ifedi, is still listed as a guard with a grade of 65.

So, looking at this, an OT is almost always an investment in the future and a 1st round tackle pays significantly higher dividends than a 2nd round pick.  Of the 19 1st round tackles selected since 2016 11 have a higher grade than either of the Bengals current starting OT. For the 2nd round tackles only 1, Brian O'Neill, has a higher grade.  Of the 10 2nd round OT selected only 5 actually play OT.

This seems to clearly indicate that waiting till the 2nd round to try and find a tackle is a fools errand.

1st year:
      Grades-----Snaps
1st  57.09------741.37
2nd 47.43------539.83
3rd  48.5-------222.1

2020:
-----Grades-----Snaps
1st 72.52------797.05 (75.78 grade is we remove the 2020 drafted players from this)
2nd 56.38-----656.80
3rd 40.59------290.44

Tackles playing G
---Grade-----Snaps-----1st year-----Snaps
1st 65--------1066-------51.3 --------841
2nd 60.9-----715.8------58.92-------657.6
3rd 64.5-----535.5------44.75--------289

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-01-2021, 12:18 PM)Wyche Wrote: Debatable that signing an Alex Mack to replace the weak link in Bodine could have pushed the offense over the top. Our lone weakness was pressure up the gut in the QBs face. There were many discussions about it on the old board, and here.

Doubly so when the team that did sign Alex Mack ended up getting 2nd Team All-Pro play and went to a SB that very year. (They lost, but blowing a 28-3 lead isn't Mack's fault.)

Was just looking back again, and it's crazy how the Falcons went from the 21st scoring offense in 2015 to the 1st in 2016.

[*jason*]

(04-01-2021, 11:24 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The tantrums the “OL at 5 or bust” crowd have been throwing here recently are really getting embarrassing.

Gonna get Burrow killed bro...

But yeah... I think we're in a no lose situation at 5, and whoever we draft will be a great contributor. Yesterday flipped me to Chase though.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-01-2021, 01:09 PM)jason Wrote: Gonna get Burrow killed bro...

But yeah... I think we're in a no lose situation at 5, and whoever we draft will be a great contributor. Yesterday flipped me to Chase though.

Same here. And I’ve been all about Sewell for forever now. But to me unless Sewell absolutely blows his pro day away like Pitts and Chase just did the choice is more between the two pass catchers. And Pitts might go at 4.

[Whatever]

(04-01-2021, 11:54 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Really don'r consider the OP to be a tantrum. of course a retort could be a broken down Pinto crossing a great bridge.

I think our WR corps is more like an Ecoboost Mustang that somebody stuck a bunch of Cobra badges on.

[Joelist]

This draft is a bit weird compared to the ones in prior recent years. Usually we have been seeing drafts where OL is strong at the top then falls off sharply but WR is deep and has plug and play players in the second and even third rounds. This draft shakes out almost the opposite. OT and OG are fairly deep with plug and play talent while WR/TE is elite at the top (Chase, Smith, Pitts) then falls off sharply to players with serious flaws in their game (bad hands, poor technique) and players so raw you cannot plug and play them.

THIS is why I am not as firm that Sewell must be the first pick as I was - this plus resigning Spain and signing Reiff.

[fredtoast]

(04-01-2021, 12:02 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The OL did not hold those 2011-15 teams back whatsoever.

Who cares.  Our current offense is held back a lot more by our current O-line than our current WRs.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(04-01-2021, 12:45 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Doubly so when the team that did sign Alex Mack ended up getting 2nd Team All-Pro play and went to a SB that very year. (They lost, but blowing a 28-3 lead isn't Mack's fault.)

Was just looking back again, and it's crazy how the Falcons went from the 21st scoring offense in 2015 to the 1st in 2016.

Yes sir!!!!

[Mobster]

Yes, we need O-Line help. But we desperately need playmakers as well, guys who can get us chunk plays. It was so painful to watch 15 play drives that end up with no scores. You know how hard it is when you have to sustain a drive that long because you have no big plays? Sooner or later your drive gets ruined because someone is going to get called for a penalty, you'll give up a sack, etc. No team can be that perfect that consistently even with someone like Sewell

[Burma]

(04-01-2021, 01:14 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Same here. And I’ve been all about Sewell for forever now. But to me unless Sewell absolutely blows his pro day away like Pitts and Chase just did the choice is more between the two pass catchers. And Pitts might go at 4.

I was all in for Sewell, but I think I have settled in at trading down and grabbing Slater or Darrisaw.  Which is probably the least realistic choice the Bengals may take.  Watching Slater's games and his pro day you really get struck with how effortlessly he moves.  Slater also tested extremely well.  Compared to the 2018-2020 combine results which encompassed 158 offenseive linemen Slater ranked as follows:

40 yard: 3rd 
Vertical: Tied for 6th
Bench: Tied for 6th
Broad Jump: Tied for 8th
3 cone: Tied for 9th
Shuttle: 2nd