Report: Burrow pushing for Bengals to draft Chase

[*bfine32*]

(04-11-2021, 11:27 AM)PDub80 Wrote: You need to dive into these statistics a little further. You're telling me how good the cake tastes bases off of the icing.

According to Nextgenstats...

Only 12 of Tee Higgins 67 catches were over 15 yards in thenair last season. Only 8 of which were in the air over 20 yards... None of which traveled 30.

The Bengals ranked 31st in the NFL in deep passes completed (balls that traveled 20 yards in the air or more) ZERO of which came past 30 yards and the majority of which were 20-25 yards.

The Bengals also had the WORST trio of WRs in terms of avg yards of separation per catch. AJ Green 1.7, Higgins 2.5, Boyd 2.7.

The Bengals have NO ONE as a deep threat. Literally no one on the roster. Every Bengals podcast has touched on this the last 4 years. This is killing Taylor's offensive scheme AND Joe Mixon because teams cheat up and do not hold numbers back to respect anything deep.

Here's a link to nextgen https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/ to verify the WR stats. Who is reolacing AJ Green for you? Michael Thomas? Tate? UDFA Stan Morgan?

You drafting Bateman as your replacement for AJ Green? A late round flier on a WR to do it? You think Higgins is going to be prime AJ Green at some point?

Tee Higgins is not a deep ball guy. Not in the NFL. He doesn't have the speed or quickness. Can he grab jump balls and be a threat deep? YES. As the main guy getting doubled? Probably not.

You cannot run a 4 and 5 wide offense based around Tee Higgins and a great slot guy. Literally every piece of data on Bengals WR performance from last season and the prior seasons points to the Bengals not having anything (reliable... looking at YOU, John Ross) to take the top off of an NFL defense.

You disagree? Based on what? I showed you what I based my conclusions off of. What are you basing yours on?

When you're 6'4" 215 you create your own separation. Tee is an outside threat (contrary to what Mora Jr said) and has always has been a huge YPC receiver. I don't need next Gen to tell me why it "doesn't count". I'm not drafting anyone to replace AJ prime; we've got that in Higgins. I'm looking for a Z that can replace/improve on the 47 catches, 500 yards AJ gave us last year. That can easily be found later in the draft.

What's this fascination with "separation"?  You want that, draft Devonta Smith. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-11-2021, 11:27 AM)PDub80 Wrote: You need to dive into these statistics a little further. You're telling me how good the cake tastes bases off of the icing.

According to Nextgenstats...

Only 12 of Tee Higgins 67 catches were over 15 yards in thenair last season. Only 8 of which were in the air over 20 yards... None of which traveled 30.

The Bengals ranked 31st in the NFL in deep passes completed (balls that traveled 20 yards in the air or more) ZERO of which came past 30 yards and the majority of which were 20-25 yards.

The Bengals also had the WORST trio of WRs in terms of avg yards of separation per catch. AJ Green 1.7, Higgins 2.5, Boyd 2.7.

The Bengals have NO ONE as a deep threat. Literally no one on the roster. Every Bengals podcast has touched on this the last 4 years. This is killing Taylor's offensive scheme AND Joe Mixon because teams cheat up and do not hold numbers back to respect anything deep.

Here's a link to nextgen https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/ to verify the WR stats. Who is reolacing AJ Green for you? Michael Thomas? Tate? UDFA Stan Morgan?

You drafting Bateman as your replacement for AJ Green? A late round flier on a WR to do it? You think Higgins is going to be prime AJ Green at some point?

Tee Higgins is not a deep ball guy. Not in the NFL. He doesn't have the speed or quickness. Can he grab jump balls and be a threat deep? YES. As the main guy getting doubled? Probably not.

You cannot run a 4 and 5 wide offense based around Tee Higgins and a great slot guy. Literally every piece of data on Bengals WR performance from last season and the prior seasons points to the Bengals not having anything (reliable... looking at YOU, John Ross) to take the top off of an NFL defense.

You disagree? Based on what? I showed you what I based my conclusions off of. What are you basing yours on?

Why are you wasting so much time on how fast/slow he is and if he's a "speed guy" who can get separation or not? Go watch some tape--which, incidentally, i just did of every catch he had this year--and you'll see that he's clearly a #1 WR that has no trouble playing outside and being very effective in how the Bengals use their WRs in the offense they run.

[coachmcneil71]

(04-11-2021, 10:29 AM)bfine32 Wrote: I guess I'm not seeing the "oline or bust" mentality that some feel is getting out of hand. I've seen many debates on Pitts, Sewell, or Chase. I don't think I've seen much of any "we gotta take Slater, Darrisaw,..." at #5OA. I have seen quite a bit of "Chase or bust because Joe wants him". 

The only thing I've ever heard Joe say directly when asked about Chase is "I wouldn't mind throwing to him". Really not the all all want that Albert Brier "reported" and folks around here have jumped on. 

To be honest, knowing Joe's mentality, I'd be highly surprised if he's going out of his way to stump for anyone at this point in his career. He's always had a "respect must be earned" mentality. I doubt he's trying to be the biggest voice in the room going into his 2nd season. 

(04-11-2021, 11:23 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Very good point.

Based on the fact that they played together and Chase is an incredible talent I am sure Joe would love to have him as a WR.  But I doubt he is actually flexing or trying to force the team to draft him.

If media asked Joe how he felt about Sewell he would probably say he would be happy to play with him also.  Same with Pitts.

No matter what happens it looks like Burrow is guaranteed to get an elite player added to his offense.  I have argued strongly for Sewell, but I am not going to freak out if we take Pitts or Chase.  

Agree with both takes. Any one if the three are going to upgrade the offense. It's really a win,win,win IMO.

[Joelist]

Let’s remember that part of how receivers get separation is schematic - how are the routes designed. This is why you see things like bunched receivers that scatter, multiple crosses and so on. If your route tree does not give defenses anything to think about as to what the receivers will do it makes it easier to cover them.

So what does this mean about the Rd 1 pick? I will be thrilled if we take Sewell. I will likewise be thrilled if it’s Chase. I’m even good with Pitts although that would require us to adapt our offense into one that aggressively passes to the TE to fully leverage.

[coachmcneil71]

(04-11-2021, 12:01 PM)bfine32 Wrote: When you're 6'4" 215 you create your own separation. Tee is an outside threat (contrary to what Mora Jr said) and has always has been a huge YPC receiver. I don't need next Gen to tell me why it "doesn't count". I'm not drafting anyone to replace AJ prime; we've got that in Higgins. I'm looking for a Z that can replace/improve on the 47 catches, 500 yards AJ gave us last year. That can easily be found later in the draft.

What's this fascination with "separation"?  You want that, draft Devonta Smith. 

I agree with you about Tee. I just have my doubts about the delivery down the field.

[fredtoast]

(04-11-2021, 11:27 AM)PDub80 Wrote: You disagree? Based on what? I showed you what I based my conclusions off of. What are you basing yours on?

You seem to be trying to make some connection between "separation" and being a "deep threat" but when I look at the stats I don't see that at all.

Receiving Stats | NFL Next Gen Stats

Many of the receivers who have a high "separation" number also have a very low "Air target" number.  There is no correlation at all.

The best example is a guy who finished with the 6th highest "separation" number in the league at 3.9.  He also had an extremely low "air target" number at just 5.02.  His name is Drew Sample.

Are you seriously going to argue that if we had Drew Sample at WR with his elite separation number that we would have a legit deep threat at WR?

I enjoy looking at these new nextgen stats.  Some of them are very helpful.  But your attempt to use "separation" to determine which receivers are deep threats is a complete fail.  There is zero correlation between "separation" and "deep threat".

[*bfine32*]

(04-11-2021, 01:05 PM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: Agree with both takes. Any one if the three are going to upgrade the offense. It's really a win,win,win IMO.

Yeah, we get too caught up on "our guy" around here. I guess I really don't have "a guy" that why I'm looking forward to whomever we draft.

I do think Darrisaw and D. Smith might turn out to be the best OT, WR in this draft but In understand #5OA is probably too early for either.

I think those accusing the board of an "Oline or bust" mentality need to take a step back and look at themselves.

IMO we've "got" to get a #3WR and 1 Starter quality player on each line. 

Hell Auden Tate gave us in 2019 what AJ did in 2020. 

[Shake n Blake]

Only on the Bengals boards will you see people hyping up late round scrubs like Armon Binns and Cody Core, then trash a guy who just had one of the best rookie seasons in team history. All so they can justify taking another WR a year after the star QB got his knee shredded due to bad blocking.

Only on Bengals boards will people rip the starting QB for needing to be "surrounded by weapons", then when we get an elite QB (potentially), they want him to be surrounded by weapons.

Only on Bengals boards will people swear by PFF, then ignore that our top WR graded out as (IIRC) the 2nd or 3rd best player on the entire team.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Anyone else starting to feel like Red at this point wrt who we take at 5?



Man, this board can really wear you down.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-11-2021, 03:24 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Only on the Bengals boards will you see people hyping up late round scrubs like Armon Binns and Cody Core, then trash a guy who just had one of the best rookie seasons in team history. All so they can justify taking another WR a year after the star QB got his knee shredded due to bad blocking.

Only on Bengals boards will people rip the starting QB for needing to be "surrounded by weapons", then when we get an elite QB (potentially), they want him to be surrounded by weapons.

Only on Bengals boards will people swear by PFF, then ignore that our top WR graded out as (IIRC) the 2nd or 3rd best player on the entire team.

Yup

Many of those posters think you WR corps needs to be Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, and Terrell Owens. Your RB's Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, and Earl Campbell. Your TE's Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez, and Antonio Gates. Then all your problems are solved.

To much play station. You know that world where you can trade your 3rd string guard for Randy Moss.

[blt4584]

(04-11-2021, 04:10 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yup

Many of those posters think you WR corps needs to be Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, and Terrell Owens. Your RB's Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, and Earl Campbell. Your TE's Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez, and Antonio Gates. Then all your problems are solved.

To much play station. You know that world where you can trade your 3rd string guard for Randy Moss.

I mean, it's also a Playstaion move to take a LT in Jonah Williams or Sewell and just move them around the line and expect it to just work out.

I think Sewell would be a good pick, but I also think Williams played well and will be a good LT. The problem with the line from what I could see was the interior. Taking a guy who is considered by some to be a generational talent at LT and hope that it fixes the OG would kinda be the most Bengal way to solve a problem possible. 

To really fix the line the best way might to be trade down and try to get enough to pick a guy who looks to be more of a true OG in Vera-Tucker and get enough assets to try to trade back up for Marshall, but I don't think the Bengals will be quite that active.

[Gdale_Bengal]

(04-11-2021, 03:47 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Anyone else starting to feel like Red at this point wrt who we take at 5?



Man, this board can really wear you down.

Debating is all you can do here. Some people are better at debating than others and they can get rather deflating and tiresome.

In the end I think as long as they take a player we all expect them to take, only a few posters will get upset if it’s not Sewell.

[Destro]

(04-11-2021, 03:24 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Only on the Bengals boards will you see people hyping up late round scrubs like Armon Binns and Cody Core, then trash a guy who just had one of the best rookie seasons in team history. All so they can justify taking another WR a year after the star QB got his knee shredded due to bad blocking.

Only on Bengals boards will people rip the starting QB for needing to be "surrounded by weapons", then when we get an elite QB (potentially), they want him to be surrounded by weapons.

Only on Bengals boards will people swear by PFF, then ignore that our top WR graded out as (IIRC) the 2nd or 3rd best player on the entire team.

You'll have another line to add when people make excuses next year for why drafting Chase didn't lead to success. Defenders of Taylor and Brown are working on the equations now.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-11-2021, 04:23 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Debating is all you can do here. Some people are better at debating than others and they can get rather deflating and tiresome.

In the end I think as long as they take a player we all expect them to take, only a few posters will get upset if it’s not Sewell.

All the personal stuff is just getting old. There’s no need to alienate the younger posters here with this “video game” nonsense. It’s such a lazy way to try and discredit someone. It would be like the other side just calling them boomers, and saying that them pointing to how things were done in the 80’s is not at all relevant in 2021. Both would be wrong to some extent.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(04-11-2021, 04:22 PM)blt4584 Wrote: I mean, it's also a Playstaion move to take a LT in Jonah Williams or Sewell and just move them around the line and expect it to just work out.

I think Sewell would be a good pick, but I also think Williams played well and will be a good LT. The problem with the line from what I could see was the interior. Taking a guy who is considered by some to be a generational talent at LT and hope that it fixes the OG would kinda be the most Bengal way to solve a problem possible. 

To really fix the line the best way might to be trade down and try to get enough to pick a guy who looks to be more of a true OG in Vera-Tucker and get enough assets to try to trade back up for Marshall, but I don't think the Bengals will be quite that active.

The problem with the line is depth. One injury at Tackle and then Fred Johnson or Akeem Andeniji is all they have to fill in. Lack of depth is what led to Jordan playing guard.

[Gdale_Bengal]

You can’t build a team like they did in the 80s. Free agency wasn’t a thing until the 90s

[blt4584]

(04-11-2021, 04:51 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: The problem with the line is depth. One injury at Tackle and then Fred Johnson or Akeem Andeniji is all they have to fill in. Lack of depth is what led to Jordan playing guard.

Jordan started the season a LG, it was lack of better options that led him to playing. I do absolutely agree that no matter what they do in the 1st, they need to pickup multiple lineman in the draft and some of them do need to have legit positional flexibility.    

[BengalsRocker]

(04-11-2021, 03:24 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Only on the Bengals boards will you see people hyping up late round scrubs like Armon Binns and Cody Core, then trash a guy who just had one of the best rookie seasons in team history. All so they can justify taking another WR a year after the star QB got his knee shredded due to bad blocking.

Only on Bengals boards will people rip the starting QB for needing to be "surrounded by weapons", then when we get an elite QB (potentially), they want him to be surrounded by weapons.

Only on Bengals boards will people swear by PFF, then ignore that our top WR graded out as (IIRC) the 2nd or 3rd best player on the entire team.

I get what you're saying.

You know what I also get?

This team isn't a "shiny toy" drafting machine either the more recent drafts.

It's not like they haven't picked O-linemen high.

If they take Sewell it will be two years a high pick for Tackle in the past 3.

Tee Higgins ain't no slouch but he kind of surprised me honestly.  Not like Jefferson and his play in college coming out who looked like a true #1.

Mixon is what some might call a "shiny toy" pick yet it was a risk even in the 2nd round with character questions.

It really isn't absurd to consider drafting someone like Chase, Smith, Waddle as our future number one WR
(even more so that there is a QB connection with one of them)and take a T/C/G in 2nd or beyond. 

Higgins could very well have had a freshman showing, and go through a sophomore slump once defenses start targeting him.

Adding Chase doesn't necessarily rob Tee of being a powerful target.  It could quite possibly have the reverse affect.

[Whatever]

(04-10-2021, 07:24 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. What I said holds true. I guarantee that if you looked at each individual snap, it isn't going to be super consistent. There's going to be plenty of deviations. Plenty more blown up plays with the bad o-lines. Plenty more big plays for the team with good blocking. Are you really going to argue against this? It's common sense, brother.

2. Tom Brady is an exception, as he has always run a timing based offense predicated on short throws. He doesn't represent the average NFL offense. Also, guys can be schemed open. You bring up Ben Roethlisburger. Well how many times have we seen his guys WIDE open through the years? Not via speed, but some guy just somehow got lost in coverage.

Juju isn't a speed guy. He ran a 4.5 and a 4.54 leading up to the draft. Johnson ran a 4.53. So basically you're arguing against yourself. The Steelers are getting separation with a pair of 4.5 guys and little time to throw. That just proves what I said about scheme is on point.

3. Adding talent is never a bad thing, and Reiff himself has played multiple positions and has said he'd be fine with moving. If he felt he'd struggle, why would he offer? You think he wants to tank his next contract after 1 year at an awkward position? You've got to be the first person I've seen argue that adding Sewell could somehow make us worse. Amazing.

4. It's just true regardless. I don't know what to tell ya. Having the ability to scan for open receivers is ALWAYS going to lead to the QB hitting open receivers more frequently. You're over-thinking a very simple truth. We don't have turtles playing WR. They are going to be open sometimes. If Burrow doesn't have time, he'll find that open guy less often.


We really don't want to lock ourselves into only looking at one position in the 2nd though...and when you look at WR depth overall in this draft, most sites have it as being deeper than o-line.

Many sites still have Marshall going in the 2nd.

1.What I said holds true.  No QB in the league is consistently getting 4 seconds to stand back there and scan the field.  I have no idea why you still keep trying to debate this point, unless you unrealistically believe you can build some monster OL and accomplish that.

2.You lost me here.  I just showed you Brady was third in the league in Intended Air Yards(The average distance downfield that the intended target of a pass is) and you're trying to argue that he was in a dink and dunk offense.  The fact that he was 3rd in the league in Intended Air Yards disproves the theory that he was in an offense built around the short passing game.

Ben had the fastest Time to Throw in the league.  He's hitting these guys quickly before the DB has a chance to use that make up speed, as I illustrated in point 4, but you're still arguing against. Not to mention that they have a 6'4" WR that runs 4.42 on the outside helping to create space for all their other targets.

3.Reiff has been around a long time. He's going to say the right things in the media and saying he'll play anywhere is the right thing to say.  Not to mention the fact that he was probably told to say that by the Bengals so as not to tip their hands in the draft.  And again, we're not talking about his willingness to move, but if there will be a drop off in his play if he moves.  Same with Sewell.  The reality of the situation is that nobody on these boards has worked with Sewell enough to determine if he can make the move or not.  Will the OL be better if we draft Sewell?  Probably.  Will it be dramatically better?  You can't really project that when you're moving a bunch of pieces around.  

4.All our WR's are below average in the speed department by NFL standards.  That's just reality.  Sure, defenders fall down, coverages get blown, a guy sits down in a soft spot in the zone, or improvises in the scramble drill and extra time will help the QB find them.  You would rather have extra time you don't need to throw than not have enough.  However, again, it is diminishing returns if you don't have the speed to consistently take advantage of it.  NE typically had a bunch of slow WR's, but they were successful with Brady getting the ball out quick instead of holding it all day waiting for someone to uncover.

5.We're locked into a position group in 2 no matter who we take at 5. If it's Sewell, it has to be a WR in 2.  If it's Pitts or Chase, it has to be OL in 2. We have Auden Tate and Mike Thomas fighting for a starting WR job.  It can't wait til 3.

NFL Mock Draft Database has a consensus Big Board created from 30 Big Boards, 394 1st round mocks, and 493 team based mocks.  That's where I'm pulling 13 OL in the Top 50 and 20 in the Top 100 from vs 8 and 14 for WR's.  I haven't seen a single draft expert say WR is deeper than OL this year and those numbers back it up.  I've seen posters claim this, typically people who are locked in on Sewell at 5 and trying to sell people on the "you can get an immediate starter at WR on Day 3" myth.  Marshall is on average the 35th overall prospect, but is most commonly being mocked to Baltimore at 27. Either way, based on mocks and Big Board rating, it doesn't look like he'll fall to us.

[blt4584]

As far as Marshall goes, he's getting attention from at least one team right in front of us in the 2nd.