Next Gen Stats “Can’t Miss Prospects”

[Nicomo Cosca]

Chase and Pitts both making the list (in fact they’re tied for 1st).

T-1
Ja'Marr Chase
Ja'Marr Chase
LSU · WR · 21 years old
Production Score: 89
Athleticism Score: 99
OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 99
PRO BOWL PROBABILITY: 24%

Who will be the first non-quarterback selected in the 2021 NFL Draft? It very well might come down to Kyle Pitts vs. Ja'Marr Chase -- and the numbers support the hype. Driven by elite athleticism and record-breaking statistics, Chase enters the draft with the highest probability of making a Pro Bowl within his first three seasons (24%) of any wide receiver over the last four draft classes. Among 52 wide receivers invited to this year's combine, Chase posted top-three numbers at LSU's pro day in the 40-yard dash (4.34), broad jump (11 feet even), vertical jump (41 inches) and short shuttle (3.99), making him the first wide receiver (invited to the combine) to break four seconds in the short shuttle since Amari Cooper did it in 2015 (3.98 seconds). The 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner -- the award is given to the nation's top wide receiver -- led the FBS in receiving yards (1,780) and receiving touchdowns (20) as a true sophomore in a receiving corps that also featured eventual first-round pick and rookie Pro Bowler Justin Jefferson. Despite opting out of the 2020 season to prepare for the draft -- which did affect his production score -- Chase grades out as one of the most complete wide receivers to enter the NFL in some time.


Rank
T-1
Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts
Florida · TE · 20 years old
Production Score: 99
Athleticism Score: 98
OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 99
PRO BOWL PROBABILITY: 19%

When it comes to the quantifiable, Pitts has one of the cleanest analytical profiles in recent memory. Measuring in at 6-foot-5 5/8 and 245 pounds, with a wingspan of 83 3/8 inches, Pitts ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at Florida's pro day and posted a 10-foot-9 broad jump -- all numbers that would have ranked in the top 10 among 52 wide receivers invited to this year's abbreviated NFL Scouting Combine. With elite athletic traits and a history of big plays in the air game (770 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns in just eight games last season), Pitts offers everything you want in an impact pass catcher. Expect the Florida prospect to play a role similar to that of Travis Kelce, who lined up detached on 62 percent of his offensive plays in 2020. Pitts is only the 12th prospect in our data set (2003-2021) to enter the draft with a production, athleticism and overall draft score of 98 or higher. Ten of the previous 11 have made the Pro Bowl: Mario Williams, Eric Berry, Ndamukong Suh, Dont'a Hightower, Luke Kuechly, Aaron Donald, Derwin James, Denzel Ward, Saquon Barkley and Kyler Murray. The only omission from the list? Super Bowl LV champion Devin White.


https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-draft-kyle-pitts-ja-marr-chase-headline-next-gen-stats-can-t-miss-prosp

[Bmore Birds]

""Ten of the previous 11 have made the Pro Bowl: Mario Williams, Eric Berry, Ndamukong Suh, Dont'a Hightower, Luke Kuechly, Aaron Donald, Derwin James, Denzel Ward, Saquon Barkley and Kyler Murray. The only omission from the list? Super Bowl LV champion Devin White.""

This a quite a success rate for a metric.

[impactplaya]

Maybe for once in.along time the Bengals can
Draft a real game changer. Someone that can even
Exceed what AJ Green did here.
The NFL.is predicated on mismatches.
Pitts is so.unique even ZT as dumb as he is with
X and Os couldnt screw up getting Pitts involved

[EatonFan]

I know everyone is on the Chase/Sewell train. But Pitts is a unique commodity.

[NATI BENGALS]

(04-20-2021, 09:35 AM)EatonFan Wrote: I know everyone is on the Chase/Sewell train.  But Pitts is a unique commodity.

With our propensity for physical freaks like Simpson's giant hands, Ross' speed, and Higgins' long arms to name a few. Pitts could easily be the guy. With his wingspan and catch radius it's basically like trying to hit the broadside of a barn in the middle of the football field. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-20-2021, 09:29 AM)impactplaya Wrote: Maybe for once in.along time the Bengals can
Draft a real game changer. Someone that can even
Exceed what AJ Green did here.
The NFL.is predicated on mismatches.
Pitts is so.unique even ZT as dumb as he is with
X and Os couldnt screw up getting Pitts involved

Yes, he absolutely could.  

He backed a decrepit AJ Green as WR #1.  He started John Ross over Tee Higgins.  He gave Traveyon Williams (butt fumble 2.0) carries over Gio Bernard.  

The guy lives and dies with 11 personnel, and that is not the best way to use a talent like Pitts.  

While I am ranting.  I wish I could wager AGAINST Trevor Lawrence.  He is a freak athlete, yes, but every time he faced really good defenses, it was hit and miss what he would do.  36% Pro Bowl chance?  My ass.  Not in Jacksonville.  Only if he got drafted by a really good team like Piggy did years ago.  

[Hammerstripes]

(04-20-2021, 10:10 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Yes, he absolutely could.  

He backed a decrepit AJ Green as WR #1.  He started John Ross over Tee Higgins.  He gave Traveyon Williams (butt fumble 2.0) carries over Gio Bernard.  

The guy lives and dies with 11 personnel, and that is not the best way to use a talent like Pitts.  

While I am ranting.  I wish I could wager AGAINST Trevor Lawrence.  He is a freak athlete, yes, but every time he faced really good defenses, it was hit and miss what he would do.  36% Pro Bowl chance?  My ass.  Not in Jacksonville.  Only if he got drafted by a really good team like Piggy did years ago.  

Mitch Trubisky made the Pro-Bowl, I think Lawrence can get there as well.

That being said, I think Lawrence would have been the number prospect last year as well, but I would have been a Burrow guy.  Burrow just brings the "other dimension" to the game that I don't think Lawrence has.  I didn't think Tua had it last year either.

[*psychdoctor*]

It could be Pitts. The reason I think Chase over Pitts for the Bengals is because I do not believe they have the competence or skill to use or even know how to use Pitts. I do not think they are creative enough to think outside the box of only viewing Pitts as TE. Hell, I do not think they even know how to really take advantage of the TE position in their current playbook schemes.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-21-2021, 04:13 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Mitch Trubisky made the Pro-Bowl, I think Lawrence can get there as well.

That being said, I think Lawrence would have been the number prospect last year as well, but I would have been a Burrow guy.  Burrow just brings the "other dimension" to the game that I don't think Lawrence has.  I didn't think Tua had it last year either.

Yeah, a lot of folks have mistaken the 2020 Jags defense for the Bears.  

I love Burrow for how he seems to be, in his words, "All about ball" and his mind is as dangerous as his body.  I hate to make this kind of comparison, but his chip (boulder) on his shoulder and his self-confidence remind me a lot of Tom Brady.  Lawrence reminds me a lot of a young John Elway.  Incredible athlete, but has dominated his level of competition on athleticism alone.  That won't work.  Not to say he won't win any games, but he isn't facing Syracuse defenses any longer and he doesn't have superior athletes to his competition surrounding him at most positions.  I look at how Lawrence played (not that they lost, but how HE played) against Burrow in the NC game, and then this past year against OSU.  He struggled.  Burrow and Fields had incredible games against his Clemson defenses that were arguably better than the LSU defense and the OSU defense (especially the 2020 version...that 2019 defense was insane) and he struggled in both those games.  

I am not saying he is Bo Callahan, but I see a lot more Brian Drew in Burrow.  Admit it, you love that movie even if it is the Browns.  

[*ochocincos*]

(04-19-2021, 11:53 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Chase and Pitts both making the list (in fact they’re tied for 1st).

T-1
Ja'Marr Chase
Ja'Marr Chase
LSU · WR · 21 years old
Production Score: 89
Athleticism Score: 99
OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 99
PRO BOWL PROBABILITY: 24%

Who will be the first non-quarterback selected in the 2021 NFL Draft? It very well might come down to Kyle Pitts vs. Ja'Marr Chase -- and the numbers support the hype. Driven by elite athleticism and record-breaking statistics, Chase enters the draft with the highest probability of making a Pro Bowl within his first three seasons (24%) of any wide receiver over the last four draft classes. Among 52 wide receivers invited to this year's combine, Chase posted top-three numbers at LSU's pro day in the 40-yard dash (4.34), broad jump (11 feet even), vertical jump (41 inches) and short shuttle (3.99), making him the first wide receiver (invited to the combine) to break four seconds in the short shuttle since Amari Cooper did it in 2015 (3.98 seconds). The 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner -- the award is given to the nation's top wide receiver -- led the FBS in receiving yards (1,780) and receiving touchdowns (20) as a true sophomore in a receiving corps that also featured eventual first-round pick and rookie Pro Bowler Justin Jefferson. Despite opting out of the 2020 season to prepare for the draft -- which did affect his production score -- Chase grades out as one of the most complete wide receivers to enter the NFL in some time.


Rank
T-1
Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts
Florida · TE · 20 years old
Production Score: 99
Athleticism Score: 98
OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 99
PRO BOWL PROBABILITY: 19%

When it comes to the quantifiable, Pitts has one of the cleanest analytical profiles in recent memory. Measuring in at 6-foot-5 5/8 and 245 pounds, with a wingspan of 83 3/8 inches, Pitts ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at Florida's pro day and posted a 10-foot-9 broad jump -- all numbers that would have ranked in the top 10 among 52 wide receivers invited to this year's abbreviated NFL Scouting Combine. With elite athletic traits and a history of big plays in the air game (770 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns in just eight games last season), Pitts offers everything you want in an impact pass catcher. Expect the Florida prospect to play a role similar to that of Travis Kelce, who lined up detached on 62 percent of his offensive plays in 2020. Pitts is only the 12th prospect in our data set (2003-2021) to enter the draft with a production, athleticism and overall draft score of 98 or higher. Ten of the previous 11 have made the Pro Bowl: Mario Williams, Eric Berry, Ndamukong Suh, Dont'a Hightower, Luke Kuechly, Aaron Donald, Derwin James, Denzel Ward, Saquon Barkley and Kyler Murray. The only omission from the list? Super Bowl LV champion Devin White.


https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-draft-kyle-pitts-ja-marr-chase-headline-next-gen-stats-can-t-miss-prosp

I have viewed both Pitts and Chase as can't-miss, but here are some reasons to consider Pitts over Chase.
1) Game changing WRs seem to come along more often than game-changing TEs.
2) If Pitts plays a majority of his snaps at TE, the TE franchise tag is cheaper than the WR tag ($9.6 mill TE vs $16 mill WR this year).
3) The Bengals have better talent at WR than at TE right now.

If the Bengals have the vision of keeping a guy longer, always nice to have a cheaper tag.

But as psych said, we'd have to trust Taylor would know how to utilize Pitts properly, which I don't know if I do.
Pitts is the perfect weapon to use as both a WR and TE, as he can be the third WR in 3-WR sets, but also can be very useful in 2-TE sets as the 2nd TE. Heck, you could go crazy and put him, Uzomah, and Sample out there, with Pitts outside opposite of Higgins and then Uzomah and Sample inline.

[impactplaya]

(04-22-2021, 11:33 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I have viewed both Pitts and Chase as can't-miss, but here are some reasons to consider Pitts over Chase.
1) Game changing WRs seem to come along more often than game-changing TEs.
2) If Pitts plays a majority of his snaps at TE, the TE franchise tag is cheaper than the WR tag ($9.6 mill TE vs $16 mill WR this year).
3) The Bengals have better talent at WR than at TE right now.

If the Bengals have the vision of keeping a guy longer, always nice to have a cheaper tag.

But as psych said, we'd have to trust Taylor would know how to utilize Pitts properly, which I don't know if I do.
Pitts is the perfect weapon to use as both a WR and TE, as he can be the third WR in 3-WR sets, but also can be very useful in 2-TE sets as the 2nd TE. Heck, you could go crazy and put him, Uzomah, and Sample out there, with Pitts outside opposite of Higgins and then Uzomah and Sample inline.

If Taylor has no.idea how on how to use a talent like
KYLE PITTS then he really should not be coaching
There is this narrative that ZT is married to the McVay
System. If he is then really lacks the knowledge
To create his own identity on offense

[*ochocincos*]

(04-22-2021, 12:25 PM)impactplaya Wrote: If Taylor has no.idea how on how to use a talent like
KYLE PITTS then he really should not be coaching
There is this narrative that ZT is married to the McVay
System. If he is then really lacks the knowledge
To create his own identity on offense

If he's married to the McVay system, he may want to look at the Rams offense from last year.
Kupp with 974 yards.
Woods with 936 yards.
Reynolds 618 yards.
Higbee and Everett combined for 938 yards.

They actually started both Everett and Higbee 6-7 games.
Higbee played 72.74% of the offensive snaps and Everett played 56.84% of the offensive snaps, so they clearly ran quite a decent amount of two-TE sets.

I would think if you have a guy like Pitts, you would have him on the field at least 70% of the offensive snaps, either as a WR or TE.
They should have Pitts block some, as he's not bad at it, he's just not elite at it yet.

[impactplaya]

(04-22-2021, 12:50 PM)ochocincos Wrote: If he's married to the McVay system, he may want to look at the Rams offense from last year.
Kupp with 974 yards.
Woods with 936 yards.
Reynolds 618 yards.
Higbee and Everett combined for 938 yards.

They actually started both Everett and Higbee 6-7 games.
Higbee played 72.74% of the offensive snaps and Everett played 56.84% of the offensive snaps, so they clearly ran quite a decent amount of two-TE sets.

I would think if you have a guy like Pitts, you would have him on the field at least 70% of the offensive snaps, either as a WR or TE.
They should have Pitts block some, as he's not bad at it, he's just not elite at it yet.

Kyle Pitts is really a big time X WR who would cause so 
Many headaches for the 5'11 CBs in tbe AFC North

[*ochocincos*]

(04-22-2021, 01:15 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Kyle Pitts is really a big time X WR who would cause so 
Many headaches for the 5'11 CBs in tbe AFC North

That the thing - he's good enough to be used both at an X WR but also as a TE.
He's a pure mismatch.
His speed and size combo is very difficult for nearly anyone on defense to shut down.

That's precisely why Pitts is my favorite prospect.

I like Chase too, but a good WR can be found any year. Pitts is more rare.

[impactplaya]

(04-22-2021, 02:04 PM)ochocincos Wrote: That the thing - he's good enough to be used both at an X WR but also as a TE.
He's a pure mismatch.
His speed and size combo is very difficult for nearly anyone on defense to shut down.

That's precisely why Pitts is my favorite prospect.

I like Chase too, but a good WR can be found any year. Pitts is more rare.

Drafting Pitts would allow Sample to a actually get better
At what he does best i.e blocking. And if Sample can improve
At blocking the whole offense benefits.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-22-2021, 02:16 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Drafting Pitts would allow Sample to a actually get better
At what he does best i.e blocking. And if Sample can improve
At blocking the whole offense benefits.

Personally, I'd rather Sample ride the bench except in situations it's clear we need him to block.
I'd rather have Uzomah in over Sample, as Uzomah is more of a pass catching threat.

Imagine Higgins, Boyd, Pitts, Uzomah, and Mixon out there.

[Burma]

(04-19-2021, 11:53 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Chase and Pitts both making the list (in fact they’re tied for 1st).

T-1
Ja'Marr Chase
Ja'Marr Chase
LSU · WR · 21 years old
Production Score: 89
Athleticism Score: 99
OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 99
PRO BOWL PROBABILITY: 24%
*SNIP*
https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-draft-kyle-pitts-ja-marr-chase-headline-next-gen-stats-can-t-miss-prosp

Nicomo, this is good info, thank you.  You know I am team O-line all the way but this is the kind of information I appreciate and I think backs the desire for Chase. Simply saying it's a deep O-line draft and being happy with 2nd tier at a position of need is a lame argument and makes me think fantasy football results vs actual football game results matter more to that person.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-20-2021, 10:10 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: While I am ranting.  I wish I could wager AGAINST Trevor Lawrence.  He is a freak athlete, yes, but every time he faced really good defenses, it was hit and miss what he would do.  36% Pro Bowl chance?  My ass.  Not in Jacksonville.  Only if he got drafted by a really good team like Piggy did years ago.  

Would be a bad wager. As long as a QB sticks around as a starter for 5-8 years, they're pretty much going to luck into at least 1 Pro Bowl as an alternate. There's years where seemingly the first 5-6 guys all opt out either due to SB, injuries, or "injuries".

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-23-2021, 12:51 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Would be a bad wager. As long as a QB sticks around as a starter for 5-8 years, they're pretty much going to luck into at least 1 Pro Bowl as an alternate. There's years where seemingly the first 5-6 guys all opt out either due to SB, injuries, or "injuries".

Truth.  Even Trubisky made a Pro Bowl, which I didn't remember.  Maybe the "action" should be the "first ballot" before all the drop outs.  Heck, are they even playing the Pro Bowl any more?

[*ochocincos*]

(04-20-2021, 10:10 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Yes, he absolutely could.  

He backed a decrepit AJ Green as WR #1.  He started John Ross over Tee Higgins.  He gave Traveyon Williams (butt fumble 2.0) carries over Gio Bernard.  

The guy lives and dies with 11 personnel, and that is not the best way to use a talent like Pitts.  

While I am ranting.  I wish I could wager AGAINST Trevor Lawrence.  He is a freak athlete, yes, but every time he faced really good defenses, it was hit and miss what he would do.  36% Pro Bowl chance?  My ass.  Not in Jacksonville.  Only if he got drafted by a really good team like Piggy did years ago.  

It will be interesting to see if Meyer can adjust to the NFL.
Bevell is the OC, and he hasn't really ran a good offense since the mid-2010's Seahawks, which was when the offense ran through Marshawn Lynch. He's never really ran a passing-oriented offense and succeeded.