The Mythical Lapham Prediction

[Bengalpool]

Good ol' Lap. I always look forward to his predictions. He predicted Zeitler and Eifert. The guy has sources or just can predict the future.

Sewell is who Dave Lapham is going with, but admits it is a toss up. Because Dave is/was a lineman, he'll lean towards Sewell. For what its worth, Dan Hoard is predicting Chase.

Plot twist, sounds like Dave changed his mind. He changed his pick to Chase. I've never heard Lap be this indecisive on his prediction. Wow.

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 10:52 AM)Takedown Wrote: Good ol' Lap. I always look forward to his predictions. He predicted Zeitler and Eifert. The guy has sources or just can predict the future.

Sewell is who Dave Lapham is going with, but admits it is a toss up. Because Dave is/was a lineman, he'll lean towards Sewell. For what its worth, Dan Hoard is predicting Chase.

Plot twist, sounds like Dave changed his mind. He changed his pick to Chase. I've never heard Lap be this indecisive on his prediction. Wow.

I think Dave has a lot of relationships with people in the front office who have been around a long time and he likes to just talk ball with them. I am guessing he can read between the lines in conversations he has with those guys on what they'd like to happen. You have heard a lot of "This isn't what I think they should do, but I think the Bengals are going Chase" recently so I could see him picking up that vibe too. Albert Breer said today something similar and followed it up by saying his sources at LSU seems to think Chase to the Bengals is a done deal. 

[CJD]

Did he make his official prediction today? Is there a link?

[Burma]

(04-26-2021, 10:58 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Did he make his official prediction today? Is there a link?

Sounds like there is quite the debate going on in the front office, which is good.  I'm wondering who is banging the drum for whom.  

[Au165]

People act like who Burrow wants doesn't matter, and it doesn't, but there is one special caveat this year that is unique. Something that you keep hearing is teams have never had less information on character/work ethic/etc. then they do this year. Teams are relying on relationships with people in buildings, not casual relationships but deep long-standing ones, to get the real picture to know if a guy practices hard every day, does he get in trouble, does he show up on time. I wonder if in another year it would be Sewell as a slam dunk, but with the lack of access teams and scouts had this year if going with Chase who Burrow can actually tell you those things makes a big difference.

Also, keep in mind, the Bengals have really strong ties back to LSU even before Burrow so you got to think they are comfortable with the info coming out of LSU...maybe not so much Oregan?

[jfkbengals]

(04-26-2021, 11:23 AM)Au165 Wrote: People act like who Burrow wants doesn't matter, and it doesn't, but there is one special caveat this year that is unique. Something that you keep hearing is teams have never had less information on character/work ethic/etc. then they do this year. Teams are relying on relationships with people in buildings, not casual relationships but deep long-standing ones, to get the real picture to know if a guy practices hard every day, does he get in trouble, does he show up on time. I wonder if in another year it would be Sewell as a slam dunk, but with the lack of access teams and scouts had this year if going with Chase who Burrow can actually tell you those things makes a big difference.

Also, keep in mind, the Bengals have really strong ties back to LSU even before Burrow so you got to think they are comfortable with the info coming out of LSU...maybe not so much Oregan?

If that is the case, then Fisher not working out definitely plays a part in this.  Probably not all the way back to Akili, though.  If we go Chase, I would not be surprised as we are replacing a should be HOF guy who was drafted at 4, and there will be quality tackles available in round 2.  The problem, to me, is that we would be passing on a generational oline prospect.  Similar to us passing on Burrow last year to take Young first and hope for Hurts in the second...

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 11:28 AM)jfkbengals Wrote: If that is the case, then Fisher not working out definitely plays a part in this.  Probably not all the way back to Akili, though.  If we go Chase, I would not be surprised as we are replacing a should be HOF guy who was drafted at 4, and there will be quality tackles available in round 2.  The problem, to me, is that we would be passing on a generational oline prospect.  Similar to us passing on Burrow last year to take Young first and hope for Hurts in the second...

Not sure he is actually generational. Some people think so, others think there were better prospects in the Tackle class last year. This is how the draft goes, one guys generational talent is another guys overrated player. 

[NATI BENGALS]

Don’t second guess yourself Lapham. Take the Quenton Nelson level alpha OL and celebrate later when your high powered offense with a top OL is scoring TDs at will because your #1 overall QB has time to do what he does.

[XenoMorph]

(04-26-2021, 11:51 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Don’t second guess yourself Lapham. Take the Quenton Nelson level alpha OL and celebrate later when your high powered offense with a top OL is scoring TDs at will because your #1 overall QB has time to do what he does.

so draft Slayter?

[Shake n Blake]

The pick will be Chase. I think the players are likely graded very closely by the team, and the NEED would definitely make you lean Sewell...but this team has always (over)valued having a name WR...and as much as people won't want to hear this, I'm sure jersey sales are a factor.

You don't think Chase will sell a million more of those fancy new jerseys than a boring lineman? He even has a cool name and will likely rock a single digit number. As much as we love sports, in the end it's a business. They're in it to make $$$. Just peep the pro shop out and you get the picture. They're riding the Burrow hype train HARD. Now they can add his college teammate?

They'll take Chase. Then Hobson will put out a spin article claiming that the Bengals fixed the line by adding Pollack, Reiff, a 4th round pick and getting XSF back. The line will be better this year, but will still have it's issues. Then maybe next year we can hope for a lineman in round 1 after Reiff walks.

[Bengalpool]

(04-26-2021, 12:58 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The pick will be Chase. I think the players are likely graded very closely by the team, and the NEED would definitely make you lean Sewell...but this team has always (over)valued having a name WR...and as much as people won't want to hear this, I'm sure jersey sales are a factor.

You don't think Chase will sell a million more of those fancy new jerseys than a boring lineman? He even has a cool name and will likely rock a single digit number. As much as we love sports, in the end it's a business. They're in it to make $$$. Just peep the pro shop out and you get the picture. They're riding the Burrow hype train HARD. Now they can add his college teammate?

They'll take Chase. Then Hobson will put out a spin article claiming that the Bengals fixed the line by adding Pollack, Reiff, a 4th round pick and getting XSF back. The line will be better this year, but will still have it's issues. Then maybe next year we can hope for a lineman in round 1 after Reiff walks.

Probably very accurate, but depressing. And I don't mind us picking Chase at all. I just want o-line addressed on day 2.

[ElkValleyBengal]

If they have Chase graded ahead of Sewell, and it's by more than a hair, then I can't argue the pick. However, if the grades are very similar, I think it's a grave mistake. I hear a lot about all the OL depth in the draft this year, but I haven't seen much depth at OL in the last several years combined, especially at tackle. There's a reason why poor OL play is a league-wide issue.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-26-2021, 11:28 AM)jfkbengals Wrote: If that is the case, then Fisher not working out definitely plays a part in this.  Probably not all the way back to Akili, though.  If we go Chase, I would not be surprised as we are replacing a should be HOF guy who was drafted at 4, and there will be quality tackles available in round 2.  The problem, to me, is that we would be passing on a generational oline prospect.  Similar to us passing on Burrow last year to take Young first and hope for Hurts in the second...

Everyone keeps saying this, but I swear if Terrance Marshall and Rashod Bateman are available with our 2nd round pick - after we take Chase - I plan on bringing it up. Often.

[*ochocincos*]

I think this is a clear indicator that people think both Sewell and Chase will be great in the NFL, so the Bengals can't go wrong with either one.
What will be important then is who they pick in Rd 2.
We know there are a handful of good OL and WRs who could be available at 38, but there's also a chance they aren't.

2nd Round targets by position:
WR - Bateman, Marshall, Moore, Toney (Brown in a trade-back to 50-60 IMO)
OL - Jenkins, Cosmi, Leatherwood, Eichenberg, Radunz, Mayfield, Davis, Humphrey (Carman in a trade-back if not confident he'll fall to Rd 3)

If they like a particular OL or WR who may fall to Rd 2 but not confident he'll make it to 38, they might need to consider trading up a few picks to secure him. We don't want another 2019 scenario where the Bengals think one of Taylor, Little, Ford, and Risner all go before the Bengals get to pick.

They could also go defense in Rd 2, but I highly doubt it. If they do, I hope it's a pass rusher.

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 01:08 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Everyone keeps saying this, but I swear if Terrance Marshall and Rashod Bateman are available with our 2nd round pick - after we take Chase - I plan on bringing it up. Often.

If Sewell falls out of the top 10 does that change your view? I’m hearing rumors he may end up at 11/12 if we pass as Detroit may be involved in a trade for a QB. There is this idea he is generational and I think a generational talent doesn’t fall out of the top 10. If Slater goes before him does that change your view?

[Shake n Blake]

(04-26-2021, 01:33 PM)Au165 Wrote: If Sewell falls out of the top 10 does that change your view? I’m hearing rumors he may end up at 11/12 if we pass as Detroit may be involved in a trade for a QB. There is this idea he is generational and I think a generational talent doesn’t fall out of the top 10. If Slater goes before him does that change your view?

Not really, because where a player lands isn't always an indicator of his talent level. I guess if Sewell slid to say...19th overall that'd change my outlook. But he could slide to 11/12 simply because the top 4 took QB's, we take Chase, and the teams behind us don't need a Tackle as much as something else. For all we know, the teams at 11/12 could be elated that Sewell "fell" that far.

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 01:40 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not really, because where a player lands isn't always an indicator of his talent level. I guess if Sewell slid to say...19th overall that'd change my outlook. But he could slide to 11/12 simply because the top 4 took QB's, we take Chase, and the teams behind us don't need a Tackle as much as something else. For all we know, the teams at 11/12 could be elated that Sewell "fell" that far.

I think a lot of people being entrenched in Sewell is because the narrative has been that he is some sort of generational prospect. I just wonder if that wasn't the public-facing narrative for two years if people would be as entrenched. For instance, and it's just one team, but the Scout I often reference here his team did not have Sewell as a top 5 non-QB in this draft (don't ask me who the 5 are because he wouldn't tell me). I am sure other teams have Slater over Sewell, but the narrative has been since last year Sewell is this unquestionable monster and I just think that drives a lot of people around here's determination in "Sewell or Bust".

Time will tell if they are right or not in their evaluation, but I do think the possibility that Sewell isn't what people claim he is makes for an interesting thought experiment.

[Au165]

Peter Schrager just said on the Cowherd show that everything in the Bengals front office says they haven't actually decided which way they are going, but it is between Sewell and Chase 100%. Kind of interesting they are still up in the air 4 days out.

[Burma]

(04-26-2021, 02:27 PM)Au165 Wrote: Peter Schrager just said on the Cowherd show that everything in the Bengals front office says they haven't actually decided which way they are going, but it is between Sewell and Chase 100%. Kind of interesting they are still up in the air 4 days out.

to be a fly on that wall....

This is one of those picks that shapes the direction of your franchise.  Glad they are treating it as such.

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 02:30 PM)Burma Wrote: to be a fly on that wall....

This is one of those picks that shapes the direction of your franchise.  Glad they are treating it as such.

Hey, you never know when a gas mask bong video will come out.