Teven Jenkins to have Back Surgery (Relevant to Bengals draft strategy)

[jwalker3853]

(08-18-2021, 04:41 PM)EasyPeasy Wrote: I've said it before and I'll say it again:

Most fan draft pundits don't think about trades correctly. The bengals didn't just get the two guys with the extra picks - the extra picks then affected additional picks down the line. With the holes plugged in the fourth, the bengals were able to pick a top kicker prospect in the fifth. All picks from the fourth round on would likely have been different guys without the trade.

I agree with ya.   Both Smith and Shelvin are going to be good players for us.  

Regardless of if Shelvin starts, I have to believe he is going to be in on the DT rotation and is going to eat up space and help against the run.  Couple that with Smith having a solid camp so far and I think we have two good picks from the 4th.   

I also think that the kicker is going to be a solid weapon for us.   He seems to hit at least a 50+ yarder everyday.    I know game conditions are different then game situations but he has performed very well in college under pressure.   So I expect him to do the same for us as well.   We would likely have had at least 1 extra win last year if we had him on the roster then.  

I know there are some that still aren't fans of us having traded back, but those extra picks in the 4th are looking like they are really going to benefit / contribute to the team in multiple ways.  

[*psychdoctor*]

I posted in the Draft threads that FO were suspecting injury or medical for Jenkins. The Bengals were not going to draft Jenkins. But with that said, at this point, Carman has not alleviate OL concerns. He is putting work in however, and hopefully the talent is there.

[Joelist]

And Shelvin could just be the future of NFL kick returning!

[*jason*]

Wonder if he injured his back dump trucking our boy Ossai into the bench...

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(08-18-2021, 04:25 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So you are still saying that Jenkins and Banks are going to contribute sooner that Carman despite being out with injuries?  

Walter Little is a back up in Jacksonville. 

Radunz is a back up for the Titans.  

Humphrey is a center which we did not need. 

Mayfield is a back up for the Falcons

 No, I am not saying that at all. In fact, I said the opposite with regards to Jenkins. But what I said was, AT THE TIME OF THE DRAFT, all those guys were either more highly rated, or not changing position, and thus more likely to contribute quicker than Carman.  

Regarding Humphrey, at the draft, we had no idea if Hopkins would be ready to play or not. Plus, Humphrey is an upgrade in my book, who could play G as well. As can Hopkins.  I would have been fine taking Creed, letting Hopkins be the backup, and cutting Price. 

Carman is 3rd string here. All those guys who are backups ARE doing better than he is. Humphrey is starting (for KC). Eichenberg is starting.  Heck, even the guys who are hurt could still start before Carman does, we just din't know yet how he will turn out. 

[Whatever]

(08-18-2021, 03:56 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Maybe the OL class wasn't as deep as everyone thought after all.

I think it will prove out to be a very good class. Most OL take a year or two to develop.  We can't write players off after one preseason game.  

The problem with Jenkins is he was considered a project coming out.  He was probably a year away from being a decent starter, anyways.  Now this injury is basically going to put him a year behind in his learning curve.  

[Bengal Dude]

(08-18-2021, 12:34 PM)BengalChris Wrote: I was like you. I see Jenkins as a 10 year starter on at RT.

We have no idea if the Bengals saw any injury concerns with Jenkins and they may just have been bought by the two 4th round picks.



I wouldn't say that. Carmen hasn't done anything yet and we don't know when he will.

Those 4th round picks may end up being better than Carmen. None of this trading on draft day has Taylor written on it. This is Tobin's doing.

We'll have to see how things turn out in a couple of years.

 

There's no denying that the 4th round picks were what the team wanted, but they were trading down regardless. It was well known the team wanted to move down in the 2nd.

Also, it came out a couple of hours before the 2nd round that Jackson Carmen was being linked to the Bengals. People were saying that he'd be the pick even if we traded down. Only one OL went before our pick, and he was another injury concern. 

While teams will use some smokescreen, I firmly believe the Bengals were taking Carmen no matter what. 

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

(08-19-2021, 12:27 AM)Bengal Dude Wrote: There's no denying that the 4th round picks were what the team wanted, but they were trading down regardless. It was well known the team wanted to move down in the 2nd.

Also, it came out a couple of hours before the 2nd round that Jackson Carmen was being linked to the Bengals. People were saying that he'd be the pick even if we traded down. Only one OL went before our pick, and he was another injury concern. 

While teams will use some smokescreen, I firmly believe the Bengals were taking Carmen no matter what. 

Reverse psychology

[Mike M (the other one)]

I watched Jenkins get abused by Perkins. I wasn't overly impressed.
Maybe he played thru his back issues as well, not sure, if not, then I never was wowed by him.

So yea, I was hoping he wasn't the pick. Happier with Carman than Jenkins

[fredtoast]

(08-18-2021, 08:16 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: But what I said was, AT THE TIME OF THE DRAFT, all those guys were either more highly rated, or not changing position, and thus more likely to contribute quicker than Carman.  

But that is just your opinion based on picking and choosing which draft "expert" you choose to believe.  I am sure I could find sources that have Carman ranked higher than some of those other guys.  PFF had Carman in the top 50.  Most of those guys were drafted later than that.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-18-2021, 11:55 AM)BritishBengal Wrote: It's huge and a real vindication of the Bengals draft strategy. We traded down and picked up Carmen who, sure, looks raw, but I was very impressed with some of his snaps against the Buccs.

The real kicker here is that those acquired 4ths became Smith and Shelvin and I don't think I really need to aay more. When value and volume presents itself, more often than not it's worth it.

True that, worked out really well for us it seems.

[BritishBengal]

(08-18-2021, 12:27 PM)SladeX Wrote: I thought that Carman had injury concerns as well? It's being said that this played a part in his being out of shape, and his slow start... .

The point I was trying to make is that they got a recovering player Carmen PLUS 2 x 4ths. So in a sense they took out an insurance policy on the pick. I much prefer that method of drafting. It's actually very rare that turning down deaft volume works long term.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-20-2021, 09:53 AM)BritishBengal Wrote: The point I was trying to make is that they got a recovering player Carmen PLUS 2 x 4ths. So in a sense they took out an insurance policy on the pick. I much prefer that method of drafting. It's actually very rare that turning down deaft volume works long term.

Don't think that's true at all.

Just in 2019, the Bengals traded down and picked up 2 extra picks (Renell Wren and Trayveon Williams) and took Drew Sample. Elgton Jenkins and AJ Brown (both positions of need at the time) were both taken in the gap between their original pick and the Sample pick. Also a better TE (Irv Smith Jr) was also taken in between those picks.

In 2017, the Bengals traded down and picked up 1 extra pick (Josh Malone) and took Joe Mixon. The team that traded up got Dalvin Cook.

In 2012, the Bengals traded down and picked up 1 extra pick (Brandon Thompson) and took Kevin Zeitler. The team that traded up got Chandler Jones and David DeCastro got picked in between the original pick and the new pick.

Of course everyone remembers trading down with the Rams so they could take Steven Jackson and the Bengals got Chris Perry. The Bengals got Stacy Andrews out of that trade.


....It's actually pretty much never worked out well for the Bengals trading down at the top couple rounds of the draft. Hopefully this one proves to not be the norm for the Bengals. You'd almost think they're due for getting the nice end of a deal just by sheer odds and that'd be great to see... The two guys seem promising, but I guess we won't know for sure until a year or two from now.


(The only one I can think that wasn't a massive negative for the Bengals was when they traded down and still got Bates, but they added Malik Jefferson with their upgraded pick... so that part of the trade was basically worthless. Lol... so their only non-failure was a push.)

[Hammerstripes]

(08-18-2021, 12:40 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: The criticism of the move (trade down) was that we needed to upgrade the OL immediately to protect Burrow, and in that respect, we failed to do that because:  

1) There were better prospects available than Carman, who we are swiching firm OT to G, who could contribute sooner (Eichenberg, Jenkins, Banks, Little, Cosmi, Radunz, Humphrey, Mayfield, etc).

2) The extra picks we got (Shelvin & Smith) were not likely to help much right away. Smith because he had some development to do, and Shelvin because he has Reader & Tupou ahead of him.  

3) At the time of the selection, taking another OT (much less two) when OG or C seemed the area of greatest need.
--------------  

I admit, I was in camp Sewell, and critical of the trade down. Not that I dislike Chase, Carman, Sample, Smith, and Shelvin as players, but because I though immediate OL help was (and is) priority #1.  Our FA strategy was also disappointing regarding the OL. Reiff is good, but I think we should have been more aggressive.

Jenkins getting hurt does not necessarily validate our strategy. Though it certainly validates our decision NOT to select him. No immediate OL help from him.  

Our strategy to be satified with Reiff, Pollack, Carman, & Smith as the OL upgrade pack (& Hill) is still an open question. I mean, glowing training camp reviews are something I do not put much stock in. Recall Jordan & Price last year. Spain & Jordan still look like the OG starters. Carman is #3 at RG. Fred Johnson is one snap from playing OT.

Anyway, color me still skeptical. Though I will admit, there are some bright spots. Pollack looks to have helped the existing guys some, and Smith looks closer to contributing in year 1 than I thought.  

Still, an ability to run the ball (vs starters) or actually throw with something other than a 3 step drop is gonna have to be shown before I change my mind.

A lot of those guys that you named are better fits at tackle.  I was hoping we would take Banks at that spot since we needed a true OG and I thought he could come in and play right way.  The other guys all seemed like longer term guys that would eventually step in at RT.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-20-2021, 01:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Don't think that's true at all.

Just in 2019, the Bengals traded down and picked up 2 extra picks (Renell Wren and Trayveon Williams) and took Drew Sample. Elgton Jenkins and AJ Brown (both positions of need at the time) were both taken in the gap between their original pick and the Sample pick. Also a better TE (Irv Smith Jr) was also taken in between those picks.

In 2017, the Bengals traded down and picked up 1 extra pick (Josh Malone) and took Joe Mixon. The team that traded up got Dalvin Cook.

In 2012, the Bengals traded down and picked up 1 extra pick (Brandon Thompson) and took Kevin Zeitler. The team that traded up got Chandler Jones and David DeCastro got picked in between the original pick and the new pick.

Of course everyone remembers trading down with the Rams so they could take Steven Jackson and the Bengals got Chris Perry. The Bengals got Stacy Andrews out of that trade.


....It's actually pretty much never worked out well for the Bengals trading down at the top couple rounds of the draft. Hopefully this one proves to not be the norm for the Bengals. You'd almost think they're due for getting the nice end of a deal just by sheer odds and that'd be great to see... The two guys seem promising, but I guess we won't know for sure until a year or two from now.


(The only one I can think that wasn't a massive negative for the Bengals was when they traded down and still got Bates, but they added Malik Jefferson with their upgraded pick... so that part of the trade was basically worthless. Lol... so their only non-failure was a push.)

I think it will work this time though for once, I really liked Carman and D'Ante before the Draft and also getting a monster in 
Shelvin is great for the Defense. D'Ante really flashed in that last game, Carman was solid, think all of these are good picks 
and much better than just staying put and grabbing a Teven Jenkins or a Radunz who was from a very small school.

I did really want Creed Humphrey though, just happy we got Trey Hill and he has one hell of an anchor.

[Stewy]

(08-18-2021, 12:34 PM)BengalChris Wrote: We have no idea if the Bengals saw any injury concerns with Jenkins and they may just have been bought by the two 4th round picks.
 

Sure they knew.  There were several draft sites that had his back injury as a red flag.  Some even had long discussions about it, and not just footnotes.  If the draft sites knew about it, then the Bengals had to and likely investigated it for due diligence.  With that said simulators almost always had him going in round 1 after the 20th pick.  All that leads to not only the Bengals but at least a dozen other teams with concerns about his back.

Contrary to what some fans here think, the Bengals are a professional organization and do vet draft picks.  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-20-2021, 01:59 PM)Stewy Wrote: Sure they knew.  There were several draft sites that had his back injury as a red flag.  Some even had long discussions about it, and not just footnotes.  If the draft sites knew about it, then the Bengals had to and likely investigated it for due diligence.  With that said simulators almost always had him going in round 1 after the 20th pick.  All that leads to not only the Bengals but at least a dozen other teams with concerns about his back.

Contrary to what some fans here think, the Bengals are a professional organization and do vet draft picks.  

Most all us fans even knew about Teven's back injury...

Of course the Bengals knew about it.

[BritishBengal]

(08-20-2021, 01:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Don't think that's true at all.

Just in 2019, the Bengals traded down and picked up 2 extra picks (Renell Wren and Trayveon Williams) and took Drew Sample. Elgton Jenkins and AJ Brown (both positions of need at the time) were both taken in the gap between their original pick and the Sample pick. Also a better TE (Irv Smith Jr) was also taken in between those picks.

In 2017, the Bengals traded down and picked up 1 extra pick (Josh Malone) and took Joe Mixon. The team that traded up got Dalvin Cook.

In 2012, the Bengals traded down and picked up 1 extra pick (Brandon Thompson) and took Kevin Zeitler. The team that traded up got Chandler Jones and David DeCastro got picked in between the original pick and the new pick.

Of course everyone remembers trading down with the Rams so they could take Steven Jackson and the Bengals got Chris Perry. The Bengals got Stacy Andrews out of that trade.


....It's actually pretty much never worked out well for the Bengals trading down at the top couple rounds of the draft. Hopefully this one proves to not be the norm for the Bengals. You'd almost think they're due for getting the nice end of a deal just by sheer odds and that'd be great to see... The two guys seem promising, but I guess we won't know for sure until a year or two from now.


(The only one I can think that wasn't a massive negative for the Bengals was when they traded down and still got Bates, but they added Malik Jefferson with their upgraded pick... so that part of the trade was basically worthless. Lol... so their only non-failure was a push.)

Few things on this. You can only fairly compare draft day trades by looking at the two teams involved. If you retrospectively look back at the whole round and players available you can always make counter arguments. 

I'll also argue Zeitler was every bit as good as Decastro whilst he was with the Bengals, there was a reason he was made the highest paid G at the time. Mixon also, not an issue of talent, if he had the Vikings line it would also look different.

The reason I value depth and volume of picks is because it is a solid strategy for success. Sure if you need a QB and an elite talent is there, you make that move, because it's the most important factor in NFL success. But second to that is depth and versatility. Teams that get to the SB have a strong deep team and almost always an elite QB. 

A great recent example of this strategy is with RG3 and Washington. Most people decried the taking of Cousins (in the 4th I think) but what a smart move that turned out to be. Ultimately no team can be sure who will become a decent NFL player, but if you give yourself more chances to draft one you also statistically increase your chance of striking gold and building a strong deep roster in the process. Just look at how much talent the Bengals have found past the first two rounds in the last decade. 

[fredtoast]

(08-20-2021, 01:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Of course everyone remembers trading down with the Rams so they could take Steven Jackson and the Bengals got Chris Perry. The Bengals got Stacy Andrews out of that trade.

Well apparently someone doesn't remember.

Bengals had the #17 pick in the draft.  The traded back and turned that pick into Deltha O'Neal (league leading 10 ints iin '05), Robert Geathers (10.5 sacks in '06, 104 career starts), Stacy Andrews (2 yr starter at RT) and Chris Perry (key piece of '05 Division Champions offense).  Broncos got a decent player at #17 (LB D.J. Williams) but no where near the value the Bengals got from the players they received in exchange.

[BengalChris]

(08-20-2021, 02:01 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Most all us fans even knew about Teven's back injury...

Of course the Bengals knew about it.

Well I didn't.