Losing Close Games is a Bad Indicator

[Fan_in_Kettering]

“We lost but we were close.”

Were we really? No. The eventual margin of victory may have been only a few points but losing close games has been the hallmark of the Bengals’ play since 2016 and it’s even worse under Zac Taylor.

Close games are lost by not converting on third down when on offense and not getting off the field after third down when on defense. The Bengals are horrible on third down on either side of the ball.

The Bengals go for it on fourth down a lot because they’re faced with fourth down a lot. This is due to shoddy play calling which disregards down and distance; just move those chains! Sure, there are times where taking a shot downfield makes sense but not at the expense of giving up possession.

On defense the Bengals allow far too many third down conversions, even from third and ten — or more — situations. Lou Anarumo has the defense tackling better and playing better in general but the third down scheme remains weak. Even on third and long somehow the opponent seems to convert.

Somehow Zac has to find a way to score early and often and put the game out of reach by halftime. Right now nobody on the roster has the confidence of a winner and that’s sad. I watched the Ravens the other night as they came back and beat the Chiefs and on both sides of the ball I saw purpose, energy, and most of all a cohesiveness which is lacking in Cincinnati. Everything Baltimore did looked effortless. The Bengals look like they are working hard but going nowhere.

[fredtoast]

(09-21-2021, 11:53 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote:  The Bengals are horrible on third down on either side of the ball.

On defense the Bengals allow far too many third down conversions, even from third and ten — or more — situations.

Bengals defense is in top half of the league in both third down conversions (12th) and conversions on third and 10 or longer (14th)

[fredtoast]

(09-21-2021, 11:53 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote:  Right now nobody on the roster has the confidence of a winner and that’s sad.  I watched the Ravens the other night as they came back and beat the Chiefs and on both sides of the ball I saw purpose, energy, and most of all a cohesiveness which is lacking in Cincinnati. 

This is just total bullshit that you have made up in your head.

Bengals have shown tremendous heart winning in overtime and then rally for a 14 point comeback against the Bears.

The Ravens totally choked in their game against the Ravens.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(09-22-2021, 12:35 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This is just total bullshit that you have made up in your head.

Bengals have shown tremendous heart winning in overtime and then rally for a 14 point comeback against the Bears.

The Chiefs totally choked in their game against the Ravens.

Hi Fred. I repped both of your posts even though you disagree with me which is perfectly fine. You’re a great poster and I admire your penchant for statistics. However, I only truly care about one statistic: Wins.

It’s difficult to see the Bengals losing especially with such a talented roster; Marvin Lewis* would have led the Bengals to the playoffs again with this bunch. This team isn’t nearly as loaded as the 2005, 2009, or 2011-2015 rosters but still. The effort against the Bears was horrible on the offensive side of the ball until late in the fourth quarter.

You’re right about the much-improved defense as well. Lou Anarumo added some key players and he’s the only coordinator who has improved his side of the ball. Even so, the defense was sliced and diced by Andy Dalton** before he was injured. If Andy had not had to leave the game the score wouldn’t have been so close.

Keep the statistics coming, Fred, and let’s hope statistical improvements translate into wins.

*No, this doesn’t mean I want Marvin back. He got stale.
** No, this doesn’t mean I want Andy back. The team needed to move on.

[wildcatnku24]

(09-22-2021, 09:48 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Hi Fred.  I repped both of your posts even though you disagree with me which is perfectly fine.  You’re a great poster and I admire your penchant for statistics.  However, I only truly care about one statistic: Wins.

It’s difficult to see the Bengals losing especially with such a talented roster; Marvin Lewis* would have led the Bengals to the playoffs again with this bunch.  This team isn’t nearly as loaded as the 2005, 2009, or 2011-2015 rosters but still.  The effort against the Bears was horrible on the offensive side of the ball until late in the fourth quarter.

You’re right about the much-improved defense as well.  Lou Anarumo added some key players and he’s the only coordinator who has improved his side of the ball.  Even so, the defense was sliced and diced by Andy Dalton** before he was injured.  If Andy had not had to leave the game the score wouldn’t have been so close.

Keep the statistics coming, Fred, and let’s hope statistical improvements translate into wins.

*No, this doesn’t mean I want Marvin back.  He got stale.
** No, this doesn’t mean I want Andy back.  The team needed to move on.

Even great teams lose games and/or come out flat sometimes.  I do think this offense has the potential to be as loaded as the ones you mentioned, just not sure if that's this year.  Our O weapons are still quite young.  I think the offense has also improved their roster, but we definitely have spent a lot of $ on defense, which I think we're seeing was the right call.  Imagine what our D looks like with Waynes in instead of Apple.  Fast D front and tight coverage will make for a fun Defense to watch give Burrow the ball back.  

I know folks are pretty down on losing to Chicago, I am too.  But it's one game.  Onto Pitt!

[TJ528]

(09-21-2021, 11:53 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: “We lost but we were close.”

Were we really?  No.  The eventual margin of victory may have been only a few points but losing close games has been the hallmark of the Bengals’ play since 2016 and it’s even worse under Zac Taylor.

Close games are lost by not converting on third down when on offense and not getting off the field after third down when on defense.  The Bengals are horrible on third down on either side of the ball.

The Bengals go for it on fourth down a lot because they’re faced with fourth down a lot.  This is due to shoddy play calling which disregards down and distance; just move those chains!  Sure, there are times where taking a shot downfield makes sense but not at the expense of giving up possession.

On defense the Bengals allow far too many third down conversions, even from third and ten — or more — situations. Lou Anarumo has the defense tackling better and playing better in general but the third down scheme remains weak.  Even on third and long somehow the opponent seems to convert.

Somehow Zac has to find a way to score early and often and put the game out of reach by halftime.  Right now nobody on the roster has the confidence of a winner and that’s sad.  I watched the Ravens the other night as they came back and beat the Chiefs and on both sides of the ball I saw purpose, energy, and most of all a cohesiveness which is lacking in Cincinnati.  Everything Baltimore did looked effortless.  The Bengals look like they are working hard but going nowhere.

So I'd love to go back and revisit games from the Shula, Coslet, and LeBeau era and see how many of those games were "close games".

I know I can literally remember sitting there watching the game saying to myself "were winning but some how we'll bungle it" and we lose by 3 on a last second field goal or TD, or we're losing by 3 and we get the ball back and Blake throws an INT. 

I remember those games from 92-03 like they were yesterday.  It's in sane how many of those games occurred during that time span. 

[*PhilHos*]

(09-21-2021, 11:53 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: “We lost but we were close.”

Were we really?  No.  

Yes, we were. Had the defense stopped Fields short of a 1st down on that last drive, we have a chance to go down and tie or take the lead. Doesn't matter if we were trailing by 21 points or more for 3 quarters. If by the end you have a chance to tie or win the game, then the game was close.

(09-22-2021, 12:35 AM)fredtoast Wrote: The Ravens totally choked in their game against the Ravens.

Man, when the Ravens choked against the Ravens, the Ravens must've been mad at the Ravens for nearly upsetting the Ravens. I heard the Ravens are looking forward to their rematch with the Ravens because the Ravens are not only planning on not losing to the Ravens but totally destroying the Ravens.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(09-22-2021, 09:57 AM)TJ528 Wrote: I remember those games from 92-03 like they were yesterday.  It's in sane how many of those games occurred during that time span. 

Same here! In fact, the last two seasons remind me very much of how the 1992-2002 Bengals looked. This season reminds me of 2008 which was the first year Mike Zimmer was here. That’s the year the defense improved while the offense sputtered.

[XenoMorph]

(09-22-2021, 10:10 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Same here!  In fact, the last two seasons remind me very much of how the 1992-2002 Bengals looked.  This season reminds me of 2008 which was the first year Mike Zimmer was here.  That’s the year the defense improved while the offense sputtered.

wasnt 2008 the year of Stacey Andrews and carson getting his elbow busted?

[TJ528]

(09-22-2021, 10:10 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Same here!  In fact, the last two seasons remind me very much of how the 1992-2002 Bengals looked.  This season reminds me of 2008 which was the first year Mike Zimmer was here.  That’s the year the defense improved while the offense sputtered.

The last 5 years have reminded me of 92-02...just sayin! 

I never thought I'd see a period like I remember in football from the lost decade but Mike Brown proved me wrong. 

[*ochocincos*]

(09-22-2021, 09:58 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Yes, we were. Had the defense stopped Fields short of a 1st down on that last drive, we have a chance to go down and tie or take the lead. Doesn't matter if we were trailing by 21 points or more for 3 quarters. If by the end you have a chance to tie or win the game, then the game was close.


Man, when the Ravens choked against the Ravens, the Ravens must've been mad at the Ravens for nearly upsetting the Ravens. I heard the Ravens are looking forward to their rematch with the Ravens because the Ravens are not only planning on not losing to the Ravens but totally destroying the Ravens.

The final score ended up being only a differential of 3, but the Bears were leading by 17 points until just about 6 minutes left in the game.
Aside from the bomb to Chase and then Wilson's interception that led to Higgins' TD, the offense (and game in general) was a snooze fest.

So it felt less close watching the game than the final score indicated.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

As I wrote above I don’t want Marvin Lewis or Andy Dalton back but at least there were certain seasons where I knew the Bengals would win more games than they lost and get to the playoffs. Now I’m never sure.

Having a better defense gives me hope at least and I think Lou Anarumo has risen to the occasion. He’s no Mike Zimmer or even Paul Guenther but he’s way better than any other defensive coordinator the Bengals have had in recent memory.

[KillerGoose]

(09-22-2021, 10:26 AM)ochocincos Wrote: The final score ended up being only a differential of 3, but the Bears were leading by 17 points until just about 6 minutes left in the game.
Aside from the bomb to Chase and then Wilson's interception that led to Higgins' TD, the offense (and game in general) was a snooze fest.

So it felt less close watching the game than the final score indicated.

Yeah, it's a matter of perception. Watching the game, it just felt 'blah'. However, in actuality, the game was close. Say the Bengals pulled it off and won 24-20, for example. No one would say "Nah, the Bears actually won" simply because they dominated for the majority of the game. They didn't close it out, which matters. Football is an inherently volatile sport. Things can flip in a second.

I know you're not really arguing anything and neither am I, just pointing out some observations. 

[*PhilHos*]

(09-22-2021, 10:26 AM)ochocincos Wrote: The final score ended up being only a differential of 3, but the Bears were leading by 17 points until just about 6 minutes left in the game.
Aside from the bomb to Chase and then Wilson's interception that led to Higgins' TD, the offense (and game in general) was a snooze fest.

So it felt less close watching the game than the final score indicated.

It was 7-3 Bears going into the 4th QTR. Yes, near the midway point of the 4th, the Bears pulled ahead and it looked like they were going to win, but that's why games don't end 6 minutes before the end of the 4th QTR.

I get that it may not have felt like a close game, but anyone saying it was NOT a close game is either an idiot or has an agenda.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-22-2021, 11:14 AM)PhilHos Wrote: It was 7-3 Bears going into the 4th QTR. Yes, near the midway point of the 4th, the Bears pulled ahead and it looked like they were going to win, but that's why games don't end 6 minutes before the end of the 4th QTR.

I get that it may not have felt like a close game, but anyone saying it was NOT a close game is either an idiot or has an agenda.

It was a close game because both offenses were terrible most of the game.
Most people feel that this offense should not be putting up only 3 points until 6 minutes in the 4th quarter when the team ends up being down by 17.

This game was terrible to watch. I got bored with the lack of offense happening. I don't just mean scoring.
Bengals had 276 total yards of offense, only 207 passing yards. 42 of which came on one play. So out of the other 18 completions, only 165 yards.


Back to the point of the thread though, good teams find ways to win close games often.
Taylor has had really bad success at doing that in his tenure.
We'll see if he's able to change his stars by the end of the season.
If not, this will be a rough season again, I think.

[RiverRat13]

Close games tend to even themselves out. The adage that great teams win close games is incorrect - great teams win by comfortable margins.

That said, Zac's record is so bad in close games that it's hard to argue that it is just a statistical anomaly. His coaching is obviously contributing to it in some manner.

[CKwi88]

While some of this might hold water regarding games in past seasons, it's a pretty bad take in the context of this year and the Bears game.

It was a close game. Offense was pretty garbage for 3+ quarters. Burrow threw two ugly picks and got unlucky on a third. That said, I would hardly call the 2 TDs garbage time TDs. And if your D gives up just 13 points you should be winning the game.

Hopefully Burrow shakes off the rust, gains a little confidence (his knee was shredded less than a year ago) and someone locks Taylor in a closet and throws away the key.

[Joelist]

The unusual part is that if Burrow does not toss the pick six the Bengals win the game. Now this does not and should not place the onus of the loss squarely on Burrow - the pressure plus the bad play designs which only helped the Bears get the pressure were also major factors. But, Burrow did objectively have a poor day - he held the ball a lot for too long and was just off on his throws plus no mobility at all in the pocket. So there were multiple factors playing into the disaster on Sunday.

The disturbing part is with better play design and play calling we would have won even with Burrow being off. Also that once again Taylor can't win on the road and loses a close game. His W-L on the road is terrifying and the W-L in one score games is probably a league worst candidate.

[*Nately120*]

I always point out that the 2010 Bengals who were a mess and needed blown up lost a bunch of close games while the 2010 Packers won a bunch of close games and went on to win the SB.

[Essex Johnson]

(09-21-2021, 11:53 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: “We lost but we were close.”

Were we really?  No.  The eventual margin of victory may have been only a few points but losing close games has been the hallmark of the Bengals’ play since 2016 and it’s even worse under Zac Taylor.

Close games are lost by not converting on third down when on offense and not getting off the field after third down when on defense.  The Bengals are horrible on third down on either side of the ball.

The Bengals go for it on fourth down a lot because they’re faced with fourth down a lot.  This is due to shoddy play calling which disregards down and distance; just move those chains!  Sure, there are times where taking a shot downfield makes sense but not at the expense of giving up possession.

On defense the Bengals allow far too many third down conversions, even from third and ten — or more — situations. Lou Anarumo has the defense tackling better and playing better in general but the third down scheme remains weak.  Even on third and long somehow the opponent seems to convert.

Somehow Zac has to find a way to score early and often and put the game out of reach by halftime.  Right now nobody on the roster has the confidence of a winner and that’s sad.  I watched the Ravens the other night as they came back and beat the Chiefs and on both sides of the ball I saw purpose, energy, and most of all a cohesiveness which is lacking in Cincinnati.  Everything Baltimore did looked effortless.  The Bengals look like they are working hard but going nowhere.

Defense was solid on 3rd down, offense struggled in 3rd and manageable