Joe Burrow has been terrible...

[Shake n Blake]

...according to ESPN's amazing QBR stat. He ranks 25th among starters behind Tyler Heineke with a dreadful 41.5 rating.

For comparison, Andy Dalton has a 54.3.

Just a little something to keep in mind for those few that still take this fake stat seriously...and yes some still use this stat when it suits their narrative.

Btw, kinda funny to see Justin Fields with a 7.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It has always been an absolute joke of a statistic. They’ve tried pushing it for a decade and still no other outlets take it seriously. It’s awful.

[fredtoast]

Despite being sacked more often than 31 of the 34 qualifying QBs Burrow is 10th in passer rating and tied for 5th in tds for a 2-1 team.

[XenoMorph]

(09-27-2021, 02:38 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: ...according to ESPN's amazing QBR stat. He ranks 25th among starters behind Tyler Heineke with a dreadful 41.5 rating.

For comparison, Andy Dalton has a 54.3.

Just a little something to keep in mind for those few that still take this fake stat seriously...and yes some still use this stat when it suits their narrative.

Btw, kinda funny to see Justin Fields with a 7.

well justin fields has been bad

[*PhilHos*]

For reference, here are Burrow's and Dalton's stats for this season:

Dalton
36 of 49 73.5% 262 yards 1 TD 1 INT 83.9 rating

Burrow
53 of 75 70.7% 640 yards 7 TD 4 INT 105.4 rating

[J24]

Small sample size his game against the Bears really takes a crap on his rating.
Although I agree QBR is a silly stat and awfully subjective.

[Shake n Blake]

(09-27-2021, 02:47 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: well justin fields has been bad

I know. I'm saying it's funny bc I've never seen a player with a single digit QBR.

(09-27-2021, 02:47 PM)PhilHos Wrote: For reference, here are Burrow's and Dalton's stats for this season:

Dalton
36 of 49 73.5% 262 yards 1 TD 1 INT 83.9 rating

Burrow
53 of 75 70.7% 640 yards 7 TD 4 INT 105.4 rating

I'd love to see their formula and logic behind these ratings.

How could you look at the above and rate Dalton almost 13 points better?

[Shake n Blake]

(09-27-2021, 02:52 PM)J24 Wrote: Small sample size his game against the Bears really takes a crap on his rating.
Although I agree QBR is a silly stat and awfully subjective.

The Bears game really wasn't all that terrible.

Other than the 3 picks, he put up solid numbers. Also, the other 2 games should lift the rating back up. Since they didn't, that just goes to show *why* QBR is flawed. Theoretically speaking anyway, cuz none of us know how it actually works.

[XenoMorph]

(09-27-2021, 02:54 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I know. I'm saying it's funny bc I've never seen a player with a single digit QBR.


I'd love to see their formula and logic behind these ratings.

How could you look at the above and rate Dalton almost 13 points better?

QBR is suppose to be all about that players direct impact on the game. and i have no idea how much weight goes into what.  Dalton has only played 1 game and a Qtr.  While We have put up a few TDs the last 2 games his Yards and such have been pretty low.  (which i can care less about in a win)    But if he had thrown for 400 yards and 4 TDs winning a 3 point game his score would be higher as he had a bigger impact.


https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating

[KillerGoose]

I don’t think QBR is that bad of a statistic, really. I calculate a stat that I call ‘adjusted’ QB rating and it has Burrow 24th. He has the third highest INT% in the league, behind only Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence. He’s also taken a large amount of sacks.

The concept behind it is that when a QB throws, they use a finite resource in a down. There is data to suggest that sacks and pressures may be more QB driven than originally thought (time to throw has a correlation to pressure %) , so the rating takes into account sacks as well. So, it penalizes negative uses of a passing down and gives a positive to effective uses of a passing down.

EDIT - To the point about Dalton, my rating has Dalton as the 31st QB in the league, so not better than Burrow.

[*PhilHos*]

(09-27-2021, 03:06 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I don’t think QBR is that bad of a statistic, really. I calculate a stat that I call ‘adjusted’ QB rating and it has Burrow 24th. He has the third highest INT% in the league, behind only Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence. He’s also taken a large amount of sacks.

The concept behind it is that when a QB throws, they use a finite resource in a down. There is data to suggest that sacks and pressures may be more QB driven than originally thought (time to throw has a correlation to pressure %) , so the rating takes into account sacks as well. So, it penalizes negative uses of a passing down and gives a positive to effective uses of a passing down.

So you think Dalton's had a better season so far? Because that's what the QBR is saying.

[fredtoast]

(09-27-2021, 03:06 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I don’t think QBR is that bad of a statistic, really. I calculate a stat that I call ‘adjusted’ QB rating and it has Burrow 24th. He has the third highest INT% in the league, behind only Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence. He’s also taken a large amount of sacks.

The concept behind it is that when a QB throws, they use a finite resource in a down. There is data to suggest that sacks and pressures may be more QB driven than originally thought (time to throw has a correlation to pressure %) , so the rating takes into account sacks as well. So, it penalizes negative uses of a passing down and gives a positive to effective uses of a passing down.

I agree that a lot of sacks can be on the QB.  But you need a way to decide which ones.  You can't blame them all on the QB if he is not getting any time to throw the ball.  If you could work in the next gen stats then you could give the QB the blame for any sack over 2.5 or 3.0 seconds or something like that.

QBs like Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson take a lot of sacks because they hold onto the ball a long time.  Burrow has also had a problem with that.

[KillerGoose]

(09-27-2021, 03:11 PM)PhilHos Wrote: So you think Dalton's had a better season so far? Because that's what the QBR is saying.

No, not at all. I edited my post to discuss the point about Dalton. I am more or less saying I can understand what the stat is trying to do. I think it has issues, but I don’t think it is a joke.

[KillerGoose]

(09-27-2021, 03:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I agree that a lot of sacks can be on the QB.  But you need a way to decide which ones.  You can't blame them all on the QB if he is not getting any time to throw the ball.  If you could work in the next gen stats then you could give the QB the blame for any sack over 2.5 or 3.0 seconds or something like that.

QBs like Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson take a lot of sacks because they hold onto the ball a long time.  Burrow has also had a problem with that.

I can agree with that. It’s a hairy issue and I think the rating that I track would be best used as a TEAM rating since it includes sacks. Tracking a team passing rating, along those lines. Creating a metric that differentiates OL and QB sacks/pressures is very difficult. For instance, ESPN has pass block win rate. I ran a regression on that stat with pressure percentage and I found no indication that led me to believe it was a valuable metric. It had a positive correlation, meaning that as PBWR improves, pressure rate increase. That makes no sense. It was also a very weak correlation. Pretty tough issue to solve.

[Au165]

Qb's are a tough beast and so I tend to go more so with my eye than ratings other than for more concrete occurrences. I mentioned in another thread, Burrow killed quite a lot of plays yesterday that got us into runs and allowed Mixon to get his 5.0 yards a carry. No stat is ever going to quantify that but it is something that is valuable and should be accounted for when looking at QB play.

His throwing has been mediocre this year in reality. He has missed high a decent amount on short and intermediate routes which I would attribute to hurried mechanics at times. His deep ball has been much better though and I think that can be attributed to the work he did in the offseason. While everyone will quickly go to Chase, he had a really good deep ball to Higgins week 1 that was a DPI but was spot on for accuracy downfield.

He at times has locked into receivers pre-snap which has allowed defenders to easily read his eyes and make plays. If there is one complaint from last year to this year for me it is he does not do a good enough job manipulating the defense with his eyes. This was what led to the game ending int against Indy last year off the top of my head and we have seen it a couple times this year, especially in CHI.

Now all that said, the good news is we finally saw him regain some of his mobility this week. Both on the scramble that was negated by the holding call and the check into the run play for 10 down in the red zone yesterday. I think he will improve the more he unlocks his mobility as it was one of his best assets last year and something that will open up a lot of those mid level throws he was so good at last year.

I haven't watched every QB in depth this year, I have watched a lot of them though, and I think he is playing at a mid tier level. I'd say he is maybe somewhere in the 15-20 range to this point. It isn't great but he is also still less than a year removed from a major knee injury. I would guess by the end of the year he will be knocking on the top 10 assuming he continues to make incremental improvements.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-27-2021, 02:47 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: well justin fields has been bad

Justin Fields really gonna have to improve if he's going to break the trend for NFL QBs who entered the draft from Ohio St.
40% completion and 3.9 YPA.
Dalton, meanwhile, has 73.5% completion and 5.3 YPA with the same team.

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

He’s had some really bad plays no doubt. But he’s also shaken those off and made some qualities plays afterwards. Minnesota and Pitt I think are two middle tier teams and Chicago seems bad, but I fully expected him to be shaky the first half of the season and I don’t think he’s done too terribly all things considered with his knee and bad offensive line play. I do think the Steelers game is a major confidence booster that could carry us this season.

[Au165]

(09-27-2021, 03:19 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Justin Fields really gonna have to improve if he's going to break the trend for NFL QBs who entered the draft from Ohio St.
40% completion and 3.9 YPA.
Dalton, meanwhile, has 73.5% completion and 5.3 YPA with the same team.

Matt Nagy is horrible and frankly should have been fired today after that game plan yesterday. That was embarrassing and in reality he has no business coordinating an offense at this point. If people think Zac is bad they should deep dive Nagy's playcalling.

[XenoMorph]

(09-27-2021, 03:23 PM)Au165 Wrote: Matt Nagy is horrible and frankly should have been fired today after that game plan yesterday. That was embarrassing and in reality he has no business coordinating an offense at this point. If people think Zac is bad they should deep dive Nagy's playcalling.

is nagy running the offense in Chicago?

Bill Lazor is the OC We have seen that experiment first hand

[Au165]

(09-27-2021, 03:24 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: is nagy running the offense in Chicago?

Yep, took play calling duties back from Lazor. Lazor was actually more successful calling plays than Nagy has been of late.