Bengals last in the league in first down pass rate and why this is a necessary evil.

[BurrowTheGoat]

Ugly, I know and I can hear it now, "Taylor is a terrible play-caller."  That may or may not be true, but I'm here to defend this graphic. Listen guys it's not pretty sometimes and hell it may even lose us a game or 2, but the bottom line is Joe Burrow god willing can be our franchise, elite QB for 15+ years. That is much more important than trying to win at all costs this season. Let's not get him Luck'd. Im fine with it as we are a young team, and not in a window-closing win now at all costs situation.

In a vacuum is taking the ball out of Joe's hands the best strategy to win?  No. However, it is smart for the long-term future of this team.  I want to cheer on Joe in 2035 en route to his 4th super bowl ring (conservative estimate).  Not go 11-6 instead of 9-8 in 2021 at the risk of cutting his promising career short.  That's all.  WHO DEY!!

[CKwi88]

I wasn't paying attention to the entire game, but the only time that I audibly "wtf"ed was when Mixon ripped a 20+yarder on first, and then three runs straight and punt.

Hopefully it's as much reasonably protecting Burrow and setting up some variety in the future. Coaches around the league will catch up and it will be tough to make first downs when you're consistently facing 2nd and 8+ once opposing teams key in.

[No-huddle Joe]

Honestly though, in the end the only thing that matters are in the W-L column. I see quite a few teams that are towards the bottom, yet are 2-1. Look at KC and the Stealers.....throwing it all over the place and 1-2. I am not disputing your graphic at all, but I would like to see whether this matters at the end of the season. Does throwing it on 1st down more equate to a playoff appearance? Just curious how last years stat on this worked out.

[motoarch]

Okay but why does this stat matter?

Look at it quickly it doesn't appear to be any relationship to passing on first down often and winning games. Lots of teams winning and losing on both ends of the spectrum and in the middle.

We could probably find out what the Bengals W-L record is over the last 10 years when I eat a banana before a game.

That would matter just as much.

[XenoMorph]

(09-30-2021, 04:02 AM)BurrowTheGoat Wrote:

Ugly, I know and I can hear it now, "Taylor is a terrible play-caller."  That may or may not be true, but I'm here to defend this graphic. Listen guys it's not pretty sometimes and hell it may even lose us a game or 2, but the bottom line is Joe Burrow god willing can be our franchise, elite QB for 15+ years. That is much more important than trying to win at all costs this season. Let's not get him Luck'd. Im fine with it as we are a young team, and not in a window-closing win now at all costs situation.

In a vacuum is taking the ball out of Joe's hands the best strategy to win?  No. However, it is smart for the long-term future of this team.  I want to cheer on Joe in 2035 en route to his 4th super bowl ring (conservative estimate).  Not go 11-6 instead of 9-8 in 2021 at the risk of cutting his promising career short.  That's all.  WHO DEY!!

I love running more... But we should still mix up what downs we throw on a little more.   

[Stewy]

The 90% of the league sits between 40-60%. What does this stat mean again?

[WeezyBengal]

I said this in another thread:

I have an issue with this graphic. We are basically running to avoid "Joe getting hurt". The problem is, is that we are making tendencies that other teams will pick up on in the process.

Getting the ball out of Joe's hand quickly and running the ball aren't mutually inclusive. You can get the ball out of Joe's hands quickly in other ways (quick slants, screens, quick outs, etc). I wish ZT and the offense would get creative and incorporate this stuff (a long with the run) to get the ball out of Joe's hand quickly while keeping defenses guessing, especially on first downs.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

As Joe gets closer to 100 percent we will throw more. Nagy of the Bears could learn a thing or to from this.

[XenoMorph]

(09-30-2021, 09:04 AM)Stewy Wrote: The 90% of the league sits between 40-60%.  What does this stat mean again?

it means other teams know 1st down is a run down for the bengals right now

[impactplaya]

5 of the teams that are also in the top
7 of 1st down throws also are the amongst
The league leaders in scoring per game
Cards 34
Bucs 34
Bills 31
Chiefs 30
Raiders 30
I think if the Bengals want.to increase their
22 ppg average they will have to be more
Aggressive on 1st downs.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-30-2021, 08:47 AM)motoarch Wrote: Okay but why does this stat matter?

Look at it quickly it doesn't appear to be any relationship to passing on first down often and winning games.  Lots of teams winning and losing on both ends of the spectrum and in the middle.

We could probably find out what the Bengals W-L record is over the last 10 years when I eat a banana before a game.

That would matter just as much.

Interestingly I agreed with you at first when seeing this thread before looking at the scoring offenses in conjunction. Of the 7 teams scoring at least 30 points per game right now, all of them are at .55 or higher, or the top half of the league at throwing on 1st down. 6 of the 7 teams are in the Top-10 on throwing it on 1st down.

[CJD]

My bigger issue with the Bengals is how predictable their playcalling is based on the formation they come out in.

Obviously, empty set = pass. But when they came out in singleback, it was almost always a run. I don't know if this is just small sample bias or confirmation bias, but I don't really remember us doing any play action against Pittsburgh out of the singleback set and I don't remember us passing out of singleback either (although that one I am just going off of memory, it's entirely possible we passed out of it a time or two).

I'd love to see them vary up their sets so the defense won't know what is going to happen based on the formation (outside of empty sets, of course).

[Au165]

I'd once again like to point out it's BURROW calling a lot of the runs on 1st down right now as he is killing the call at the line which usually means they are coming to the line with a pass and he kills it back to a run. He isn't doing it because he is scared, he is doing it because the defense is not giving them the look they want for the PA play most likely that was called coming out.

[sandwedge]

(09-30-2021, 10:29 AM)Au165 Wrote: I'd once again like to point out it's BURROW calling a lot of the runs on 1st down right now as he is killing the call at the line which usually means they are coming to the line with a pass and he kills it back to a run. He isn't doing it because he is scared, he is doing it because the defense is not giving them the look they want for the PA play most likely that was called coming out.

Beat me to it.

[Au165]

(09-30-2021, 11:09 AM)sandwedge Wrote: Beat me to it.

That's not to say we can't get into better looks in 1st down, I just wanted to point out that Burrow has a hand in this as well. That said, it has actually been pretty effective so it's not necessarily a bad thing.

[J24]

Wish we would mix it up more; also would like to see some more play action passes!

[fredtoast]

(09-30-2021, 09:04 AM)Stewy Wrote: The 90% of the league sits between 40-60%.  What does this stat mean again?

This.  If teams sell out to stop the run against us they will be wrong over 40% of the time.

[fredtoast]

(09-30-2021, 09:27 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: it means other teams know 1st down is a run down for the bengals right now

Only about half of the time.

[*PhilHos*]

(09-30-2021, 11:58 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Only about half of the time.

100% of the time about half the time.

[Joelist]

I hope we get a bit more balanced on first down as the season progresses. The OL can handle it - it is as mentioned upthread a matter of getting the right look from the opposing defense.

A FAR bigger concern is we are indeed telegraphing the play by the formation we use. We need to run a lot more of the offense out of the same formation so the defense cannot "cheat".