Higgins Sophomore Slump

[GreenCornBengal]

Through five games, Higgins has been highly underwhelming given the high expectations for this season. A few drops today, the fumble in Chicago, the missed deep ball. Unfortunately he’s missed more plays than he has had made it seems.. Hoping he has a “get on track” game here in the next week or so.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-11-2021, 12:21 AM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: Through five games, Higgins has been highly underwhelming given the high expectations for this season. A few drops today, the fumble in Chicago, the missed deep ball. Unfortunately he’s missed more plays than he has had made it seems.. Hoping he has a “get on track” game here in the next week or so.

On pace for 75 / 750 / 10. 

Less than you'd expect yardage-wise but he's -2 games so far this season. It would have been nice to see him do more with his 5 catches today. 

[GreenCornBengal]

(10-11-2021, 12:28 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: On pace for 75 / 750 / 10. 

Less than you'd expect yardage-wise but he's -2 games so far this season. It would have been nice to see him do more with his 5 catches today. 

I had too high of expectations and there aren’t enough balls to go around with Chase playing out of his mind. Still, I really like Higgins and thought he was ready for a huge breakout year. It might still come, but Burrow definitely seems to have a favorite target.

[Nicomo Cosca]

He was looking so good coming into camp, too. Bigger, faster, better footwork, etc.

I’ll give him a little more time though. Especially since he was dealing with an injury. He definitely needs to clean up the drops though. He had some issues with that during his rookie season.

I do expect more though with team’s focusing so much on Chase. I was very hesitant to deem him a legit #1 last year, and I haven’t seen anything to change my mind yet. I still think high end #2 is where he settles in at.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-11-2021, 12:30 AM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I had too high of expectations and there aren’t enough balls to go around with Chase playing out of his mind. Still, I really like Higgins and thought he was ready for a huge breakout year. It might still come, but Burrow definitely seems to have a favorite target.

If you mean Chase, through 5 games, he and Boyd each have 35 targets (7 per game). Tee has missed 2 games and he still has 22 in 3 games (7.3 per game). 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-11-2021, 12:38 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: If you mean Chase, through 5 games, he and Boyd each have 35 targets (7 per game). Tee has missed 2 games and he still has 22 in 3 games (7.3 per game). 

Yeah, I’m already seeing a narrative form that Burrow is favoring Chase. He’s not. Chase is just the one getting open the most. And Boyd has the same # of targets. Overall he’s spreading the ball around pretty equally among the 3.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-11-2021, 12:43 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Yeah, I’m already seeing a narrative form that Burrow is favoring Chase. He’s not. Chase is just the one getting open the most. And Boyd has the same # of targets. Overall he’s spreading the ball around pretty equally among the 3.

Yep. He spreads it around. Chase is just doing more with what he's been given (and he did get the lions share of targets today), which shouldn't be a surprise since he's the deep threat, Boyd is the 3rd down chain mover and Tee is the intermediate possession receiver. 

[Shake n Blake]

(10-11-2021, 12:38 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: If you mean Chase, through 5 games, he and Boyd each have 35 targets (7 per game). Tee has missed 2 games and he still has 22 in 3 games (7.3 per game). 

Not to pick nits, but what matters is the 3 games played together.

In those 3, the overall numbers are almost as balanced, with Higgins averaging 7.3 targets, Chase averaging 7.0, and Boyd averaging 6.

That said, Boyd has checked in with only 4 and 5 targets in two of those games, and had one big game with 9 targets.

It's something to keep an eye on. Our top 3 RB targets have dropped from 6.1 targets per game last year down to 4.8 this year, but part of that is losing Gio and upgrading at WR.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-11-2021, 12:55 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: but part of that is losing Gio and upgrading at WR.

Can't forget that they're also simply throwing less compared to the first 5 games last year.

Through 5 Games
2020: 41.4 passes/gm
2021: 29.0 passes/gm

That's just straight up 62 less targets to even go around.

[Whatever]

(10-11-2021, 12:45 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yep. He spreads it around. Chase is just doing more with what he's been given (and he did get the lions share of targets today), which shouldn't be a surprise since he's the deep threat, Boyd is the 3rd down chain mover and Tee is the intermediate possession receiver. 

Higgins has also been a great red zone target, with red zone TD's the first two games and the 2 point conversion today.

A disturbing trend is that Burrow has been picked off on 4 of 35 targets to Boyd, for an 11.8% INT rate.  Those two need to seriously get on the same page.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-11-2021, 01:00 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Can't forget that they're also simply throwing less compared to the first 5 games last year.

Through 5 Games
2020: 41.4 passes/gm
2021: 29.0 passes/gm

That's just straight up 62 less targets to even go around.

It's strange. We really are passing a lot less, so you'd think someone would be getting pinched compared to last year. But all of our top 3 WRs are still on pace for very similar targets to our top 3 last year.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-11-2021, 12:55 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not to pick nits, but what matters is the 3 games played together.

In those 3, the overall numbers are almost as balanced, with Higgins averaging 7.3 targets, Chase averaging 7.0, and Boyd averaging 6.

That said, Boyd has checked in with only 4 and 5 targets in two of those games, and had one big game with 9 targets.

It's something to keep an eye on. Our top 3 RB targets have dropped from 6.1 targets per game last year down to 4.8 this year, but part of that is losing Gio and upgrading at WR.

Chris Evans looks just as competent in the passing game so far. Every time we throw to him it’s seems like it’s a 1st down, or pretty close. I hope we get him more and more involved as time goes on. I’d rather see him get the ball out in space than waste a down throwing to Drew Sample.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-11-2021, 01:09 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Chris Evans looks just as competent in the passing game so far. Every time we throw to him it’s seems like it’s a 1st down, or pretty close. I hope we get him more and more involved as time goes on. I’d rather see him get the ball out in space than waste a down throwing to Drew Sample.

He had some great plays catching the ball today, and so did Perine, tbh.

As Burrow's attempts climb back to normal, we should think about a few more targets to those guys.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-11-2021, 12:55 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not to pick nits, but what matters is the 3 games played together.

In those 3, the overall numbers are almost as balanced, with Higgins averaging 7.3 targets, Chase averaging 7.0, and Boyd averaging 6.

That said, Boyd has checked in with only 4 and 5 targets in two of those games, and had one big game with 9 targets.

It's something to keep an eye on. Our top 3 RB targets have dropped from 6.1 targets per game last year down to 4.8 this year, but part of that is losing Gio and upgrading at WR.

Yeah, i would definitely expect those numbers to change with the upgrade in WRs. I thought Chase had been under targeted through the first 4 games but on a game by game basis, it's going to change on who gets targeted more (like you said with Boyd vs the Jags). I think in the end it will be relatively even. 

[impactplaya]

Tee is due for a big.time game
I can see now going.foward teams putting
Their top.cover corner on Chase.
Tee should be able to work over the 2nd or 3rd
CB. Id like to.see Tee run some deep posts
Pivot routes...those quick bubble passes are not big
Gainers to.him.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-11-2021, 01:09 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Chris Evans looks just as competent in the passing game so far. Every time we throw to him it’s seems like it’s a 1st down, or pretty close. I hope we get him more and more involved as time goes on. I’d rather see him get the ball out in space than waste a down throwing to Drew Sample.

Yeah. Evans should become more involved as the year goes on and Sample should never see another pass thrown his way...

Ok. 1 target every couple games. But no more!

[Whatever]

(10-11-2021, 01:09 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Chris Evans looks just as competent in the passing game so far. Every time we throw to him it’s seems like it’s a 1st down, or pretty close. I hope we get him more and more involved as time goes on. I’d rather see him get the ball out in space than waste a down throwing to Drew Sample.

Evans drew my ire in the 2 minute drill before the end of regulation. He caught a pass that wound up going for 8 yards that looked like it would have been a 1st down if he had pushed it upfield instead of trying to make it to the sideline when he had no shot.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-11-2021, 01:17 AM)Whatever Wrote: Evans drew my ire in the 2 minute drill before the end of regulation. He caught a pass that wound up going for 8 yards that looked like it would have been a 1st down if he had pushed it upfield instead of trying to make it to the sideline when he had no shot.

Yep. In that situation, North and South. Ball security and 1st downs are more crucial than trying to create a big play. I just hope like hell, things like that are pointed out and driven home in films on Mondays. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-11-2021, 01:17 AM)Whatever Wrote: Evans drew my ire in the 2 minute drill before the end of regulation. He caught a pass that wound up going for 8 yards that looked like it would have been a 1st down if he had pushed it upfield instead of trying to make it to the sideline when he had no shot.

Rookie mistake. He’ll learn he can’t outrun guys like he did in college.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-11-2021, 01:03 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It's strange. We really are passing a lot less, so you'd think someone would be getting pinched compared to last year. But all of our top 3 WRs are still on pace for very similar targets to our top 3 last year.

You already mentioned that the RBs are being targeted less. On top of that, in the first 5 games last year Mike Thomas/John Ross/Drew Sample/Auden Tate combined for 42 targets. Seems like they managed it by cutting out targets to the worse players.