Sam Francis, Cincinnati Bengals analytics guru

[JaggedJimmyJay]

https://www.espn.com/blog/cincinnati-bengals/post/_/id/33472/he-gives-us-everything-that-we-need-meet-the-cincinnati-bengals-one-man-analytics-department

I thought this was a neat piece from Ben Baby yesterday.

We've heard a few times about the Bengals' analytics guru that has some role to play in Taylor's decision making, e.g., when to go for it on 4th down. I had no idea of any of the specifics though, or even the guy's name. He was hired younger than Burrow. I like to get that fresh, young take on things when so many people have decades-old notions of "conventional wisdom" that are often complete bullshit. I have no idea if he is doing the job well, but I like that the FO brought him in when Zac suggested at least one person was needed in the role.

If the team is to complete its long journey to modernization, more of this is what I would most like to see. The Eye Test is dead and gone, bring on the substantive stuff.

[WeezyBengal]

As someone who does analytics and BI for a living...this is the dream job.

That being said, it's kind of sad that the Bengals only have one guy in their analytics department. Organizations these days have entire departments for this kind of thing. It sounds like they realize the importance of it so hopefully they commit more resources to it in the future.

[KillerGoose]

I’ve mentioned before that it seems like ZT has some analytical backing on his 4th down decisions. People are going to disagree left and right, but that 4th and 1 call from their own 30 was a fine call. I’d be curious to know his methodology or if ZT is turning down some of the suggestions. Ben Baldwin posted a graph of win percentage LOST per game by not going for it on fourth down and Cincinnati had the 6th highest WP lost per game with right around 3.8%. This suggests that Cincinnati is being a little conservative in some areas when it comes to going for it.

[Big_Ern]

One day AI will be the O and D coordinator

[Au165]

(11-04-2021, 03:41 PM)Big_Ern Wrote: One day AI will be the O and D coordinator

It's called "Ask Madden"

[Frank Booth]

There’s merit to analytics and there’s merit to the eye tests.

There’s room for both. I hate people who say the eye test scouting stuff should be buried.

[TecmoBengals]

(11-04-2021, 03:51 PM)Au165 Wrote: It's called "Ask Madden"

With the Bengals, it will be a more simplified version of only 4 plays like in the original Tecmo Bowl. You know, we're a cheap organization and all.

[Sled21]

(11-04-2021, 03:27 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: https://www.espn.com/blog/cincinnati-bengals/post/_/id/33472/he-gives-us-everything-that-we-need-meet-the-cincinnati-bengals-one-man-analytics-department

I thought this was a neat piece from Ben Baby yesterday.

We've heard a few times about the Bengals' analytics guru that has some role to play in Taylor's decision making, e.g., when to go for it on 4th down. I had no idea of any of the specifics though, or even the guy's name. He was hired younger than Burrow. I like to get that fresh, young take on things when so many people have decades-old notions of "conventional wisdom" that are often complete bullshit. I have no idea if he is doing the job well, but I like that the FO brought him in when Zac suggested at least one person was needed in the role.

If the team is to complete its long journey to modernization, more of this is what I would most like to see. The Eye Test is dead and gone, bring on the substantive stuff.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(11-04-2021, 03:34 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: As someone who does analytics and BI for a living...this is the dream job.

That being said, it's kind of sad that the Bengals only have one guy in their analytics department. Organizations these days have entire departments for this kind of thing. It sounds like they realize the importance of it so hopefully they commit more resources to it in the future.

Marvin had to drag them into the '10s, maybe these guys will drag them into the 20s. It's always baby steps.

[HarleyDog]

(11-04-2021, 07:45 PM)Wyche Wrote: Marvin had to drag them into the '10s, maybe these guys will drag them into the 20s. It's always baby steps.

So true. I work in a similar environment. Yet, I don’t give up until I get what I want. Maybe ZT is the same way?

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(11-04-2021, 08:00 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: So true. I work in a similar environment. Yet, I don’t give up until I get what I want. Maybe ZT is the same way?

I feel you. I work for a mom and pop, but they're genuinely good folks...and pay well, but behind the times on some things. The dynamic reminds me of how the Bengals operate on some levels..... especially the wearing multiple hats parts...lol.

[fredtoast]

I always question when these announcers talk about how analytics determine the chances of winning based only on field position, down, and distance. The fact is it would be different for every single team. You can't decide if it is best to go for it on fourth and short at your own forty without knowing how well your team does at converting fourth and short. That is the big point everyone seems to be missing when all they cite is down, distance, and field position.

[Sled21]

(11-05-2021, 07:55 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I always question when these announcers talk about how analytics determine the chances of winning based only on field position, down, and distance.  The fact is it would be different for every single team.  You can't decide if it is best to go for it on fourth and short at your own forty without knowing how well your team does at converting fourth and short.  That is the big point everyone seems to be missing when all they cite is down, distance, and field position.

Does he get on base....

[*PhilHos*]

(11-05-2021, 07:55 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I always question when these announcers talk about how analytics determine the chances of winning based only on field position, down, and distance.  The fact is it would be different for every single team.  You can't decide if it is best to go for it on fourth and short at your own forty without knowing how well your team does at converting fourth and short.  That is the big point everyone seems to be missing when all they cite is down, distance, and field position.

NOt to mention how well your defense is playing.

[Gdale_Bengal]

Yeah! Modernization!

Bring on a practice facility!

Oh wait…

[KillerGoose]

(11-05-2021, 07:55 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I always question when these announcers talk about how analytics determine the chances of winning based only on field position, down, and distance.  The fact is it would be different for every single team.  You can't decide if it is best to go for it on fourth and short at your own forty without knowing how well your team does at converting fourth and short.  That is the big point everyone seems to be missing when all they cite is down, distance, and field position.

The chances of winning are based on a few more factors than just field position, down and distance. They can account for point differential, vegas line pre-game, weather, stadium type (dome, open etc.), time remaining and timeouts for both teams. As far as 4th down decisions, it is usually just calculating the likelihood of converting the 4th down based on historical NFL data and then figuring out the difference in win probability between a FG, punt or going for it. From there, you choose the option that gives you highest win percentage added. 

A team's private analytics department would take this info and possibly insert that teams 4th down probabilities based on data they've gathered and decisions would be made from there.