Revisiting Mixon Contract

[Au165]

I saw an interesting stat earlier today regarding the group of big money HB's from this offseason.

When a lot of people talked about not re-signing Mixon this is what they were worried about. While Mixon has been really good, and pretty healthy, the group as a whole has in fact been injury ridden much like the stats tell us usually happens on contract #2. So why does this matter? I saw people mentioning pulling Mixon to save him as much as possible in the blowout, and that is probably the right call, but for this season we should plan to abuse him down the stretch and ride him as much as we can this year and then plan on him most likely getting hurt next season and Evans holding a bigger role.

The big ($12m+ AAV) RB contracts…

CMC - done for year
Henry - out indefinitely
Cook - out indefinitely
Kamara - out injured
Zeke - playing through injury
Aaron Jones - just back from injury
Chubb - missed two games with injury but playing well
Mixon - very good

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) November 29, 2021

[TecmoBengals]

This just means Mixon has a season-ending injury upcoming in the next few games.

[Big_Ern]

The deal is looking good this year and hopefully the next couple. If this were last year he'd be lumped in with the injured guys and hurting the big money for rb cause

[KillerGoose]

(11-29-2021, 06:25 PM)Au165 Wrote: I saw an interesting stat earlier today regarding the group of big money HB's from this offseason.

When a lot of people talked about not re-signing Mixon this is what they were worried about. While Mixon has been really good, and pretty healthy, the group as a whole has in fact been injury ridden much like the stats tell us usually happens on contract #2. So why does this matter? I saw people mentioning pulling Mixon to save him as much as possible in the blowout, and that is probably the right call, but for this season we should plan to abuse him down the stretch and ride him as much as we can this year and then plan on him most likely getting hurt next season and Evans holding a bigger role.

The big ($12m+ AAV) RB contracts…

CMC - done for year
Henry - out indefinitely
Cook - out indefinitely
Kamara - out injured
Zeke - playing through injury
Aaron Jones - just back from injury
Chubb - missed two games with injury but playing well
Mixon - very good

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) November 29, 2021

Always the danger with paying RBs big money. The vast majority of RBs are simply replaceable. 

[Au165]

(11-29-2021, 06:35 PM)Big_Ern Wrote: The deal is looking good this year and hopefully the next couple. If this were last year he'd be lumped in with the injured guys and hurting the big money for rb cause

The good news is we could actually get out of the contract next year and save some money if we wanted. If we go next year and it's a disaster we could get out the following year and save a good chunk of it so the contract is fairly team friendly in that respect.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-29-2021, 06:25 PM)Au165 Wrote: I saw an interesting stat earlier today regarding the group of big money HB's from this offseason.

When a lot of people talked about not re-signing Mixon this is what they were worried about. While Mixon has been really good, and pretty healthy, the group as a whole has in fact been injury ridden much like the stats tell us usually happens on contract #2. So why does this matter? I saw people mentioning pulling Mixon to save him as much as possible in the blowout, and that is probably the right call, but for this season we should plan to abuse him down the stretch and ride him as much as we can this year and then plan on him most likely getting hurt next season and Evans holding a bigger role.

The big ($12m+ AAV) RB contracts…

CMC - done for year
Henry - out indefinitely
Cook - out indefinitely
Kamara - out injured
Zeke - playing through injury
Aaron Jones - just back from injury
Chubb - missed two games with injury but playing well
Mixon - very good

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) November 29, 2021

This more says to me don't pay big money for RBs 

[fredtoast]

Here is what Mixon got paid on his deal

'20.....$14.4 million
'21.....$ 5.4 million
'22.....$ 8.7 million
'23.....$10.1million
'24.....$10.4 million


So how does that average $12 million a year?

[fredtoast]

(11-29-2021, 06:25 PM)Au165 Wrote:  for this season we should plan to abuse him down the stretch and ride him as much as we can this year and then plan on him most likely getting hurt next season and Evans holding a bigger role.

How exactly do we know he won't get injured before the playoffs this season if we over use him.

[*pally*]

(11-29-2021, 06:29 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: This just means Mixon has a season-ending injury upcoming in the next few games.

He had it last season after signing the contract.  Besides he already missed a game and a half this season

[Au165]

(11-29-2021, 06:48 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Here is what Mixon got paid on his deal

'20.....$14.4 million
'21.....$ 5.4 million
'22.....$ 8.7 million
'23.....$10.1million
'24.....$10.4 million


So how does that average $12 million a year?

The contract that was filed was a 4 year $48 million dollar extension. It is $33 Million in base salary over the 4 years along with $13 million in prorated signing bonus and an additional $2 million in roster bonuses and $800k in workout bonuses giving him an AAV of 12 million. 

[fredtoast]

(11-29-2021, 06:36 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: The vast majority of RBs are simply replaceable. 

Technically EVERY position is replaceable.

But to replace the best ones you just have to use a high draft pick or a lot of money in free agency.

RBs do wear out quicker than other positions, but they are still worth paying up until 28 or so.  And that is exactly how old Mixon will be in the final year of this deal.

[NUGDUKWE]

I like Mixon a lot and have never worried about paying a good 2nd contract. I like the run heavy approach but the last 2 weeks Mixon has basically had 30 carries. I would just like to get Perine involved more and keep Mixon at more like the 15-20 carry mark at least as more of the norm. Perine has also really been good when given opportunities as a receiver as well. I'd also like to keep getting Chris Evans involved.

I understand peoples thinking though as it seems you can get a RB in the 2nd RD with a limited chance of being a bust. So I'd say if anything maybe draft a RB in the 2023 draft. If Treveyon Henderson is there in the 2nd RD in 2023 that could be very intriguing.

[Au165]

(11-29-2021, 06:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: How exactly do we know he won't get injured before the playoffs this season if we over use him.

He could, point being is this is probably the healthiest he will be on this contract and we should use him as much as we can this season.

[fredtoast]

(11-29-2021, 06:56 PM)Au165 Wrote: The contract that was filed was a 4 year $48 million dollar extension. It is $33 Million in base salary over the 4 years along with $13 million in prorated signing bonus and an additional $2 million in roster bonuses and $800k in workout bonuses giving him an AAV of 12 million. 

Maybe I just don't understand what "AAV" mean?  

The cash was paid over 5 years.  The cap hit was spread over 5 years.  So why do they "average" the contract over just 4 years?

[fredtoast]

(11-29-2021, 06:57 PM)Au165 Wrote: He could, point being is this is probably the healthiest he will be on this contract and we should use him as much as we can this season.

But I want him healthy for the playoffs.  I think we would have a better chance of winning with him.

[CJD]

(11-29-2021, 06:48 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Here is what Mixon got paid on his deal

'20.....$14.4 million
'21.....$ 5.4 million
'22.....$ 8.7 million
'23.....$10.1million
'24.....$10.4 million


So how does that average $12 million a year?

If I recall correctly, he was signed before the 2020 season (the last on his rookie contract) to a 4 year 48 million dollar extension through 2024. He got paid a lot up front, which is what made his 2020 cash gain so high, but that was technically counted as part of the extension rather than 2020's current money.

So if you add 5.4 to 8.7 to 10.1 to 10.4 to that 10 signing bonus, you get pretty close to the 48 million dollar extension, which is where the original tweet got the AAV.

You could think of it as a 5 year 50 million dollar contract if you count the last year of his rookie deal though.

[fredtoast]

(11-29-2021, 06:56 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I understand peoples thinking though as it seems you can get a RB in the 2nd RD with a limited chance of being a bust. 

And that is where people are wrong.  They see 3 or 4 top RBs that were drafted in the second round, but they don't see the dozens who flopped.  If you plan on replacing your RB every 4 years in the draft you are going to end up with a lot of bad RBs.

[KillerGoose]

(11-29-2021, 06:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Technically EVERY position is replaceable.

But to replace the best ones you just have to use a high draft pick or a lot of money in free agency.

RBs do wear out quicker than other positions, but they are still worth paying up until 28 or so.  And that is exactly how old Mixon will be in the final year of this deal.

Sure, technically, but RBs are typically more replaceable than other positions. The second round seems like a gold mine for RBs. Chubb, Mixon, Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Javonte Williams are all guys producing really well that were drafted in the second round. Then you have guys like Ekeler, Hunt, Robinson, Pollard, Edmonds, Sanders, Henderson that are all mid-round guys that are also producing well. 

I would lean towards not paying a RB big money and using that cap space on OL or DL talent, but I have no problem with Mixon's contract. I'm just hoping he can stay healthy, he has had some nagging injury issues. He is very talented. 

[fredtoast]

(11-29-2021, 07:04 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: You could think of it as a 5 year 50 million dollar contract if you count the last year of his rookie deal though.

That is the way I look at it.  Add the salary from the last year of his rookie deal (probably about $1 million) and spread it out over 5 years.  That is what is really happening.

BTW when they re-signed Mixon I felt he was worth $8-$9 million a year.  So at $10 million a year he might have been overpaid, but it was by a small amount.

[fredtoast]

(11-29-2021, 07:12 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Sure, technically, but RBs are typically more replaceable than other positions. The second round seems like a gold mine for RBs. Chubb, Mixon, Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Javonte Williams are all guys producing really well that were drafted in the second round. Then you have guys like Ekeler, Hunt, Robinson, Pollard, Edmonds, Sanders, Henderson that are all mid-round guys that are also producing well. 

You are falling into the same trap as a lot of other people.  You see 5 good RBs taken in the second round and ignore the dozens who failed.

From '10-'20 there were 33 RBs taken in the second round.  Only 5 of them have ever been to a Pro Bowl.  So, yes, you can find a good RB in the second round.  But the problem is that your chances are about one in six.  And your odds get even worse the lower in the daft you go.

I agree with you that RBs wear out quicker than other positions.  I would not pay big money to one over 28 years old.  But if I had a good one I would pay to keep him that long instead of taking a chance on getting a guy like Isaiah Pead in the second round.